any comments, thoughts, on this stock.

Good read, Strawbs.
For my part, I think the more likely end result for NRK is a fire sale of its mortgage book, or at least a large part of it at a knock down price to secure its liquidity.
It can do this if it sells the more profitable areas, such as its lifetime trackers and equity release products, and its higher rate 100%+ products.
These would be more attractive to potential suitors, particularly if rates look to have topped out. It would retain its less profitable, but more secure long term fixes and the cash realised would saisfy liquidity requirements.
It would then retain its deposit business and its Internet model too, and continue by providing loans and mortgages based on its sub prime model of brokering other peoples money.
This should be acceptable to every party, investors, depositors and government and allow them to continue as what NRK always was, before its delusions of grandeur. A provincial bank.
BTW. One company who do not seem to be mentioned who I think may have a sniff at NRK is Lehman Bros. I admit they are no bank, but they have had very close links with NRK and are known to be very keen on the UK securitisation market at prime levels. If they were to be seen with a major bank interested in NRK deposits, that might be a sign of things to come.
All IMO.
Alan

I think the most telling part (if true) is how many big banks have avoided bailing out Northern Rock. It shows how much the climate has changed. I'm sure they, and private equity, would've been fighting each other a few years ago for the business. Now anyone in trouble is left to sink or float on their own.

Strawbs.

NRK's mortgage lending model was "built on sand" they have only 70 branches. Just imagine if say BARC or HSBC with their thousands of branches had copied them the mess we are recovering from would have been huge.All along sensible lenders saw the danger inherent in NRK's lending strategy even if the FSA didnt.

It does not look good; it will be heading lower this week.

"The Bank of England has been trying to get someone to make a bid with no success at all this week," said one market source. "The easiest thing to do is to buy a lot of the assets. It's much more likely to happen this way."

If you queue long enough you will grow weeds.

Driver,

Shouldn't that be:

Suspected hedge fund man seen outside potential target

Strawbs

Press has not been favourable, I agree, but this Company has shareholders and I think that we are now more likely to see NRK trying to soldier on. I grant you that the background to the financial and housing markets leaves much to be desired but, I do not think shareholders are ready to be stripped by aggressive Hedge Funds taking assets at a distressed discount. As mentioned in previous posts RAB Capital have 6% and the Manx outfit have bought 2%. This may well develop into a battle of the Hedge Funds with others buying assuming the sp weakens. Moreover, there would be political fall out with over 6000 currently employed by NRK especially in Labour territory. My 212p purchase price looks excessive at present but, I think we will see a good few twists and turns to come yet and am not totally despairing about what the newspapers say.

Guscavalier
I agree it could turn out to be the best recovery play this year.

Strawbs
Nice one.

short term play is much more difficult to call ...... knee-jerk reaction is that sp will again dive tomorrow, but sometimes the obvious is overturned by events and a recovery, perhaps very short, will happen instead as some bears take profits and/or sp is forced up to encourage more sellers.

Cynic Re: your Question Post 281.

Mitzy, Strawbs and Aldwick elude to the answer.

As we know the first rule in financial life is to protect the downside (out capital), so with this in mind.

The definition that I tend to agree with goes something like this.

Gambling = when you put X amount on the say a horse to win and you lose, you loose "100%" of your stake.

Risk Taking = when you put X on say a share you can limit your loss to considerably "less" then "100%" of your stake.

It's your ability to limit your losses once the stake has been placed and while the position is open which defines the difference.

Thats my view anyway )-:

it's a nice philosphical view .... my opinion, is that gambling on horses or backing your wits when playing either poker or buying shares are ALL gambling ..... if it suits your mentality, you can shade it any which way you like, but in the end, you are still putting down money against certain unknowns in the hope that you have called correctly.

I think Cynic could be right in regards to the next direction of the price. It's often the case that when you think things can only get worse they in fact get better, and just as you think things are getting better, they suddenly get a whole lot worse. Two shares that spring to mind are Yell and Jessops. You can see in both charts how they bounced off the bottom from a big drop, but once the bounce was over the price continued South. Whilst all shares are different, I wouldn't necessarily get your hopes up for a large scale recovery. No doubt there's money to be made and lost for traders and gamblers though. :-) In my opinion.... Strawbs.

Looks like things have got worse!

Looks like things have got worse!

serves me right for not obeying the discpline! ...... is NRK really going to <100 or even <50 in double-quick time?

Hopefully people recognise from the charts posted above that when a share price falls by a large margin, it normaly continues in that direction, even if it bounces slightly on the way down. If you pick the bottom you might get a small profit from the bounce, if you don't it could be an expensive mistake. In my opinion.....

Strawbs.

I'm happy with Friday's purchase ATM. ;-0

Looks to have recovered some what. I guess without external events, it's now a battle of who has more money.....the bears or the bulls...

Strawbs.

Sumfin's up. ;-))

Looks like the shorters have turned on Wolseley instead!

Oh whats going on? lol