Thread designed to record set-ups and targets on index and FX pairs.
'A market is only your enemy until you understand it, then it becomes your best friend.'








Any questions, please feel free to ask.

From time to time i may openly state an opinion regarding direction of a set-up and wish to add that in no way am i recommending a trade. I am sometimes only in trades for a matter of minutes and can't always update as to entry/exits taken.
As always, markets are dangerous places to be and must be respected as such. Always use stop losses and never over-leverage; 3% of your pot as a maximum per trade. As always, YOU are responsible for your own trades! Happy pip hunting!

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Thoughts are EJ is in a 4th of its current degree, so higher yet, may coincide with the EU heading back up, (but with trend change and in a corrective wave 2 instead). Will try and confirm a count, but its not actually trending very nicely to read right now... £ needs to sort itself out too, if it is to become a 'C' wave, it looks far more like a 4th this morning of a larger 5w set short. Really want to get short on cable, but can't read current action, despite, so far doing what i printed last week.

Yes......but!

but what Iain?

I'm just trying to bring a little balance. A devil's advocate etc

Of course! Trend is still up on practically everything, i'm just highlighting events as they happen. If they happen some time after initially being flagged, its always good to question if you have a change of heart once they are met. Most of the targets i had in mind a month ago are being reached, but now we are here, i feel even more bullish! Does that mean it is a time to be cautious? Isn't that how it all works?!
For me it doesn't really matter as i work on smaller timescales and as i keep saying, trend is up, (until it really isn't anymore).

Im with you "Currently"

Do i detect an air of cynicism perhaps?!

Not at all

Lots of my charts make it look complicated, but generally they are for practice purposes and purely for an overall plan.

Here is a very simple formula for making money. Identify a trend (HH's/HL's etc), wait for a pullback.
Let's assume trend is up. Go down the timescale to determine a,b&c, using EW & Fibs, you should be able to determine end of 'C'.
Now look for minor 5w up/3w back down.
Go long at end of this minor abc, it will often retest a TL. Stop is a pip (plus spread) below prior larger 'C'. Sounds complicated, so here's a chart.



Fibs and EW channels can be used to dictate likely targets, but this was a 10 pip risk and easy 30+ pip gain. That's 1:3 R:R. Its scaleable, but for anyone who says, 'big deal, its only 30 pips', is misunderstanding the idea. Pips are not important, percentages are. If i had a 200 pip target on an hourly set-up, my risk would still have been the same, therefore why wait for hourly/daily set-ups, when they happen all the time on the 5min? If traded as a 1% risk, you would have claimed 3% gain. A max 3% risk would have netted 9% etc...

That's without being greedy, but its also possible using this method to get onboard a longer trend and use the 10MA (+20pips) as a trailing support for your stop.

Here's another... Draw a flagline off of previous peak connecting top of the minor 5w peak (wave 1), entry after breakout bar coincides with CCI trigger. Target is equal to risk. Stop is pip below lowest point of pullback;

12,499 possible place for bounce on EJ. Eu is obeying 10ma on hourly, usually indicates impulsive move as opposed to corrective. Inconclusive right now, but is sat on 61.8% retrace level of previous wave right now.

EJ also reached exactly 100% level of previous wave, (identical to the earlier Eu chart which reached 138.2% in same move). Have it down as 4th right now.

*Edit 12,479 is fib level

Chart for above, but EU is now lower in last few minutes;

Ok, 12,450 is 61.8% ext for minor 5th, Eu is exactly at 13,500 for 50% minor 5th ext...

Previous 5w end for FTSE;



X wave next, surely not in a 3rd?

Post 309 EJ, where C=A or 3=1; the pullback in more detail;



So probable low already hit, or poss the lower blue circle yet, but then an up day, (provided no extensions), regardless of whether its 5 or B...

Watching for minor 5w/3w to confirm and looks like we already have the 5w...

This whole Euro advance starting from a HL is bothering me, without having put a load of thought into this, it would be sensible to at least consider that a HL could/should be followed by a HH, i think the break of 13,490 (last sig high in Mar last year) was possibly an important factor too, as to confirming the last low is definitely a substantial low;

What the EU does in the next 10mins will (obviously) give further evidence, but if we are in an X wave, we have already completed wave A (yesterday) thus we can expect a 'B' to follow... 5-3-5 or 3-3-5, now this morning we have a 61.8% extension, after a pullback. I would normally think this to be a 5th (of the first 5w), but the pullback reached 38.2% of the whole move, so where is wave 1&2?! More likely to be two complete sets of a 5-3-5 (of an A wave) thus a 3w move and should be followed by a 3w B move, before a 5w C, follow?

Well, its speculative right now and more for a guesstimate than anything, but if we do now drop right back down, i will be looking to trade the ending of B for our C wave;

15,595 for a bounce; Cable...? Is 138.2% ext of wave A if this is an irreg, its also bottom of weekly wedge. Even if lower and a miscount, we would be well into a 5th. Cable is certainly a short, but i would love to see a C wave first come back up a few hundred pips...

EU, not quite as deep as i was expecting, nonetheless;



How i perceive PA since;



and what i'm basing it on currently (although PA this week has been very difficult to follow);



I have earmarked it as an X wave, but there is no difference if this turns into a 5w move of a fresh impulsive move short, just label ab&c as 12&3, with 4&5 to come, its thereafter it changes massively as trend is now down, so after a 3w move back up, its short it into the pavement... i'm sure i heard that phrase somewhere before! )

I see other analysts are calling Cables current move as an ending diagonal. It would certainly look nicer than my count, however, mine will be more likely to be correct in the absence of a further LL;

Previously;



Its the way the fibs work so well, that i can overlook the feeble looking 4th (although it has worried me ever since!),

With that i ran a couple of predictions for likely abc's;



and as of last night;



Now you can see why others are labeling that last corrective as a 4th and current as an ending diagonal 5th, but so far it is clearly in 3 waves and not 5. So, they will now be expecting a complete abc long, whereas i will be expecting simply a 'C'... (this as i say, will be negated with a fresh low, but i have just made a 5w count long for today, (minor wave 1 of C), thus it doesn't look corrective... lets see, nothing set in stone, but following previous charts thus far...