The first ASOS Challenge was successful in the sense that it taught us a few lessons on investment timing. Only three of 11 shares ended in profit and that included ASOS itself: congratulations to legend for BNH and bosley for SEO. Back to the drawing board for the rest of us (over the year the portfolio would have thrashed any opposition!).

Participants welcome for the second challenge. Primary objective is to find shares that will double in value by 1st July, beating ASC in the process; secondary to be most successful stock-picker in terms of the value of your 20K portfolio. Rules are:

1.Each participant has 20K which can go into 1,2,3 or 4 shares in units of 5K.
2.ASC has 20K and is team yardstick, not in individual portfolios.
3.Duplication between entrants OK with no upper limit for total for one share.
4.Start weekend of 21st Jan. Buy price half way between closing offer and mid.
5.Latest time of entry to be 8 pm on Sunday, 23rd Jan.
6.Challenge to close Friday, 1st July.
7.Entrants can switch up to a total of 10K; av. of Friday close bid and mid.
8.Progress reports to rank shares by performance but also participants (initial only to protect from the ridicule of outsiders!).

Participants welcome. Just post selection here or on ASC thread.

Eric

NLR is out of the starting blocks for a late spurt!!

seb: great to see you again! Obviously been keeping quiet waiting for the spurt for the tape. Suspect you'll stay in front.

moneyplus: Big kiss for madeleine josephine mary from all of us. Thanks for description of scenes of marital bliss. Expect you relate to the cat jokes - was it the DGT thread or maybe NML - espeially the one ablout the girl, the fire engine and the screeching cat!

Eric

!! definitely the one where you are instructed on how to give a cat a pill!

SECOND ASOS CHALLENGE PORTFOLIO (week 20)

The penultimate week. All seems pretty well sorted out with bos well and truly overtaken by seb. Announcement that AGL prelims on July 5th just miss the final date, although an AIM launch announcement actually moved the sp up 1p; too little too late, I'm afraid, bos!

A small loss on the week, although fully accounted for by SEO. Small gain on the small-cap index although our portfolio is overall up 15.4% against 1.3%.

epic cost___ shares_ price_ value gain% wk21
SEO_ 7.19___ 456900_ 23.0__ 105087 219.9 -3.2 BBSSUUW(137)
DGT_ 0.28___ 3570000 0.59__ 21063_ 110.7 -7.8 WY(137)
BGC_ 84.8___ 5900___ 161.0_ 9499__ 89.9 -3.6 K(137)
NLR_ 394.5__ 5080___ 699.0_ 35509_ 77.2 3.3_ CDMM(137)
MDW_ 9.09___ 247500_ 12.875 31866_ 41.6 14.4 JSVV(137)
DFD_ 136____ 3675___ 189.0_ 6946__ 39.0 0.0_ A(151)
HCEG 63_____ 7935___ 86.0__ 6824__ 36.5 -8.0 O(151)
MOB_ 230.75_ 2165___ 309.5_ 6701__ 34.1 6.2 C(151)
BAG_ 811____ 615____ 1025.0 6304__ 26.4 0.0_ P(151)
IDS_ 212.5__ 4700___ 259.5_ 12197_ 22.1 12.3 GH(151)
CRDA 327.375 1525___ 385.0_ 5871__ 17.6 -0.3 P(151)
DGM_ 18.19__ 110000_ 21.3__ 23375_ 16.8 1.2_ BEMS(137)
WNN_ 268.5__ 1790___ 309.0_ 5531__ 15.1 -7.6 C
AGL_ 128.25_ 3900___ 140.5_ 5480__ 9.6_ 0.7_ B(137)
RSG_ 466.25_ 1070___ 510.0_ 5457__ 9.4_ 2.5_ P(151)
GHH_ 191.5__ 2610___ 204.0_ 5324__ 6.5_ 1.0_ G(151)
BGT_ 130.5__ 7660___ 136.5_ 10456_ 4.6_ -0.7 JJ(137)
PCI_ 10.625_ 47000__ 11.0__ 5170__ 3.5_ 22.2 T(151)
ITR_ 7.81___ 110000_ 8.0___ 8800__ 2.4_ -3.0 HH
THUS 15.19__ 32900__ 15.5__ 5100__ 2.0_ -1.6 O(151)
KCOM 62_____ 16100__ 63.3__ 10183_ 2.0_ -9.0 OO(151)
CEY_ 12.625_ 39600__ 12.25_ 4851__ -3.0 0.0_ I(137)
BPG_ 667.625 1500___ 642.5_ 9638__ -3.8 0.0_ DP(151)
PAY_ 255.75_ 1955___ 245.0_ 4790__ -4.2 -3.0 M(173)
CASH 142.25_ 3515___ 135.0_ 4745__ -5.1 5.9_ C(173)
TRT_ 87_____ 5750___ 82.5__ 4744__ -5.2 -1.8 K(151)
ACE_ 258.25_ 1935___ 240.0_ 4644__ -7.1 1.1_ G(151)
IDOX 11.75__ 42500__ 10.75_ 4569__ -8.5 13.2 V(173)
TND_ 22.5___ 111000_ 20.25_ 22478_ -10.0 -2.4 LLLLR(173)
PDX_ 231____ 2165___ 204.5_ 4427__ -11.5 -2.9 A(177)
AUG_ 256.25_ 3900___ 216.5_ 8444__ -15.5 -3.8 DE(173)
SLV_ 11.625_ 40450__ 9.75__ 3944__ -16.1 0.0_ D
GMC_ 19.125_ 52700__ 14.8__ 7773__ -22.9 -10.6 TW
FTO_ 8.69___ 57500__ 6.625_ 3809__ -23.8 0.0_ Y(173)
BNH_ 125.25_ 15970__ 94.5__ 15092_ -24.6 1.1_ AIRR(173)
EPD_ 51_____ 9805___ 38.0__ 3726__ -25.5 5.6_ I(173)
ASC_ 78.5___ 25480__ 58.0__ 14778_ -26.1 0.9_ ZZZZ(177)
AEN_ 697.5__ 717____ 507.5_ 3639__ -27.2 -1.0 J
CIU_ 162.25_ 3080___ 115.0_ 3542__ -29.1 -6.1 G(173)
NML_ 5.31___ 85750__ 3.625_ 3108__ -31.7 -3.3 W
KYS_ 15.875_ 63000__ 10.375 6536__ -34.6 -1.2 UU(173)
PET_ 53.75__ 9300___ 35.0__ 3255__ -34.9 -2.8 R(177)
DES_ 62.25__ 8030___ 40.0__ 3212__ -35.7 -2.4 H(177)
SPS_ 50.5___ 39600__ 31.5__ 12474_ -37.6 -7.4 AIKK(173)
PMD_ 0.875__ 571400_ 0.525_ 3000__ -40.0 1.0_ Y(173)
GWP_ 120.25_ 8315___ 69.0__ 5737__ -42.6 8.7_ EE(151)
XEN_ 7.44___ 67200__ 4.25__ 2856__ -42.9 3.0_ V(173)
BPRG 67.25__ 14870__ 35.25_ 5242__ -47.6 3.7_ TT(137)
TAD_ 9.375__ 53300__ 4.25__ 2265__ -54.7 -10.5 Y(177)
totals___________________ 510059.0 +15.9 -0.3
small-cap__ 2891.87 2929.3________ +1.3_ +0.5

Major mover on the week is PCI (up 22.2% with positive drilling data in Algeria (johngtudor?). MDW is up a further 14.4% in anticipation of distribution arrangements in the US (jules, seb, moneyplus?). IDOX is up 13.2% on movement into profit - looks an interesting play in the information management and knowledge sharing field for government sector (patrelva?). IDS is up 12.3% on postive interim results almost matching the last full year, based largely on Freeview services (seadog, dawsinho?).

S 124.6 D 9.3_ L -10.1
B 116.6 V 7.9_ E -21.0
W 71.1_ J 5.9_ I -22.7
U 58.2_ K 2.4_ R -23.5
M 41.9_ Y -2.0 Z -26.1
C 29.3_ G -2.0 T -32.0
P 12.3_ A -8.7
O 10.5_ H -9.4

Appears to be a clear-cut top six. partridge has made progress or perhaps it is a case of capa and optimistic regressing. Major mover is patrelva on the back of MDW and IDOX.

Competition ends July 1st. I will try to draw lessons learnt which is, in my view, the major advantage in a competition like this. Hopefully, others will respond in kind. I don't see a successor portfolio given that we now have the Shares Champion Investor, I suspect partly inspired by our own efforts.

MOB down 28.1% ?? If it was I'd be sticking my house on it !!

I think you'll find the price to be 1 north of 209.5p Eric and still good value in my book.

Won't make any difference to my overall position but I am quite pleased with the performance of my picks, 1 loser out of 4 but I still think CASH will come good in time.

All the best

capa

Can I sell everything and put it into MSY please EW ?

Cheers

morning eric. great job again. i fear my prediction that seb would come through late on has become true!! well done seb. i agree eric, agl, too little too late. but still, you've got to be a bit happy with 116 % profit!!!

capa: apologies! Took a 1 off by mistake! Have edited the analysis, including the clear-cut 'top 5' to 'top 6'. Also second in the non-SEO plate cometition to moneyplus!

dil: Puzzled by MSY! What do you know that the 11 brokers on Hemscott don't know? Isn't it one of those sluggish large cap things?

bos: Yeah! Most of us would settle for 116% or even my rather pathetic 71.1%. At least, SEO and DGT are my two largest holdings - I know you have put your money where your mouth is too!

Eric

hello everybody

WAS IT THE LAST DAY OF THE COMPETITION ? IF YES, I think I ve just lost.... but not sure. Eric could you give us the final results, please ?
many thanks Eric.
It has been a very exciting challenge. Hope there will be some more...

regards to all

Second ASOS Challenge Portfolio

The Challenge is over! The winner is seb by a short head from bos. Fame and glory! (he doesn't win anything tangible unfortunately). Those who were positive at the end of the challenge were:

(1) seb190774 (+104.9%); (2) Bosley (+102.9%); (3) EWRobson (+61.1%);
(4) markusantonius (+48.3%); (5) moneyplus (+34.4%); (6) Capa (+26.6%);
(7) partridge (+12.5%); (8) optimistic (+6.7%); (9) seadog (+2.4%); (10) DIL (+1.2%).

The full result, not detailing the losers for identity protection, was:

S 104.9 G 2.4 L -10.1
B 102.9 D 1.2 R -16.1
W 61.1 J -1.3 I -20.6
U 48.3 K_ -2.1 Z -26.4
M 34.4 V -4.9 E -26.5
C 26.6 H -5.8 T -34.7
P 12.5 A -6.8
O 6.7_ Y -8.4

The portfolio was down 3.9% in the last week but up 11.4% overall compared with a rise of 1.2% is the small.cap index, used as a benchmark. The late fall was primarily accounted for by drops in the leading shares, particularly SEO, NLR, HCEG and MDW. Could well be accounted for by profit taking, perhaps on a 'sell in June' variant of the May principle.

epic cost___ shares_ price_ value gain% wk22
SEO 7.19___ 456900_ 21.25 97091 195.5 -7.6 BBSSUUW(137)
DGT 0.28___ 3570000 0.58_ 20706 107.1 -1.7 WY(137)
BGC 84.8___ 5900___ 174.5 10296 105.8 8.4 K(137)
NLR 394.5___5080___ 643.5 32690 63.1_ -7.9 CDMM(137)
DFD 136____ 3675___ 200.0 7350_ 47.1_ 5.8 A(151)
IDS 212.5___ 4700__ 291.0_ 13677 36.9 12.1 GH(151)
MOB 230.75_ 2165__ 312.0_ 6755_ 35.2_ 0.8 C(151)
BAG 811____ 615___ 1027.5 6319_ 26.7_ 0.2 P(151)
HCEG 63____ 7935__ 78.5_ 6229_ 24.6_ -8.7 O(151)
CRDA 327.375 1525__ 385.0 5871_ 17.6_ 0.0 P(151)
WNN 268.5__ 1790__ 312.5_ 5594_ 16.4 1.1_ C
MDW 9.09___ 247500 10.375 25678 14.1 -19.4 JSVV(137)
DGM 18.19__ 110000_ 20.75 22825 14.1 -2.4_ BEMS(137)
RSG 466.25__ 1070__ 510.0_ 5457_ 9.4_ 0.0_ P(151)
GHH 191.5___ 2610__ 205.5_ 5364_ 7.3_ 0.7_ G(151)
AGL 128.25__ 3900__ 136.5_ 5324_ 6.4_ -2.8 B(137)
BGT 130.5___ 7660__ 137.5_ 10533 5.4_ 0.7_ JJ(137)
KCOM 62____ 16100_ 63.75 10264_ 2.8_ 0.8_ OO(151)
ITR 7.81____ 110000_ 8.0__ 8800__ 2.4_ 0.0_ HH
PCI 10.625__ 47000__ 10.5_ 4935_ -1.2_ -4.5 T(151)
THUS 15.19__ 32900_ 14.75_ 4853 -2.9_ -4.8 O(151)
CEY 12.625__ 39600_ 12.25_ 4851 -3.0_ 0.0_ I(137)
BPG 667.625_ 1500__ 647.0_ 9705 -3.1_ 0.7_ DP(151)
PAY 255.75__ 1955__ 246.5_ 4819 -3.6_ 0.6_ M(173)
CASH 142.25_ 3515__ 136.5_ 4798 -4.0_ 1.1_ C(173)
IDOX 11.75__ 42500_ 11.0__ 4675 -6.4_ 2.3_ V(173)
ACE 258.25__ 1935__ 239.0_ 4625 -7.5_ -0.4 G(151)
TRT 87______ 5750__ 79.0__ 4543 -9.2_ -4.2 K(151)
BNH 125.25__ 15970_ 113.5_ 18126 -9.4 20.1 AIRR(173)
TND 22.5____ 111000 20.25_ 22478 -10.0 0.0 LLLLR(173)
PDX 231_____ 2165__ 202.5_ 4384 -12.3 -1.0 A(177)
SLV 11.625__ 40450__ 9.75_ 3944 -16.1_ 0.0 D
EPD 51______ 9805___ 42.0_ 4118 -17.6 10.5 I(173)
FTO 8.69____ 57500__ 6.625 3809 -23.8 0.0_ Y(173)
GMC 19.125__ 52700__ 14.25 7510 -25.5 -3.4 TW
ASC 78.5____ 25480__ 57.75 14715 -26.4 -0.4 ZZZZ(177)
CIU 162.25__ 3080___ 118.5_ 3650 -27.0 3.0_ G(173)
AEN 697.5___ 717____ 487.5 3495 -30.1 -3.9_ J
AUG 256.25__ 3900___ 167.5 6533 -34.6 -22.6 DE(173)
KYS 15.875__ 63000__ 10.25 6458 -35.4 -1.2_ UU(173)
PET 53.75___ 9300___ 34.5_ 3209 -35.8 -1.4_ R(177)
DES 62.25___ 8030___ 39.75 3192 -36.1 -0.6_ H(177)
XEN 7.44____ 67200__ 4.375 2940 -41.2 2.9__ V(173)
GWP 120.25__ 8315___ 69.0 _ 5737 -42.6 0.0_ EE(151)
NML 5.31____ 85750__ 3.0__ 2573 -43.5 -17.2 W
BPRG 67.25__ 14870__ 34.0_ 5056 -49.4 -3.5_ TT(137)
SPS 50.5____ 39600__ 24.0_ 9504 -52.5 -23.8 AIKK(173)
TAD 9.375___ 53300__ 4.25_ 2265 -54.7 0.0__ Y(177)
PMD 0.875___ 571400_ 0.33_ 1886 -62.3 -37.1 Y(173)
totals_________________ 490203.3 11.4 -3.9
small-cap___ 2891.87______ 2926.9 1.2_ -0.1

I will give my own comments on lessons learnt from the portfolio below, copying it to Shares in the hope that it may be of interest for the Shares magazine.

seb, not surprisingly, would like a further competition! Not so sure myself as we now have the Champion Investor competition in Shares. I am happy enough to manage the portfolio - the only pain is the editing of the spreadsheet, though I will check with Ian Taylor whether there is an easier way to do this with the changes made this week. Anyone else keen? If so, what changes in the 'game' would you suggest?

Eric

Well done, Sebastian! Unlucky, Bosley. Stanelco's recent slide has resulted in moi having to settle for 4th. position which means runner/up to Eric for the second time in < 4 days after his Golf Challenge Victory..... gggggrrhh!!!!

Am sending the following to Shares with a covering memo. hoping for some coverage.

"Second ASOS Challenge Portfolio

The First ASOS Challenge Portfolio ran for some three months to January this year and was a straight challenge to find a share that would double faster than ASOS. None actually doubled in the period but there were good attempts from Broker Network Holdings (BNH), Stanelco (SEO) and ASOS (ASC) itself. The other eight shares were in negative territory.

There were 21 participants in the second challenge each having 20,000 to invest in up to four shares in multiples of 5000. The portfolio contained 49 shares with seven 5000 lots in SEO, five in Tandem (TND) and four each in Netellar (NLR), Mediwatch (MDW), Deal Group Media (DGM), BNH, Superscape (SPS) and ASC itself which was taken as a team investment benchmark.

The portfolio gained 11.4% over the 22 week life of the challenge. However, this was effectively accounted for by the gain of the overweight investment in SEO that gained 195%. Other holdings with gains in excess of 100% were Dowgate (DGT), formerly City Finance Associates (CFP), and BTG (BGC).

What lessons can be learnt from the exercise? The author has probably gained most from the weekly process of evaluating the portfolio and suggests the following:

1. Switches were allowed in the portfolio for the first few weeks. The lesson that is clear from the following period is the reinforcement of the maxim to run your profits. This certainly applies to most of the 13 shares with gains over 10% which each appear to have positive on-going prospects.
2. What could not be applied was the maxim to cut your losses. There were major falls in the last week in Augean (AUG), New Millenium Resources (NML), Superscape (SPS) and Profile Media (PMD). 12 shares were down over 30% and there would appear to be warning bells even now with several, not the least PMD with banking threats still applying and the accounts not signed off.
3. Just above this last group in the portfolio are a number of stocks that have made losses over the period but which appear very sound investments. ASC is in this category following a short-term trading blip but with a positive trading statement expected on 11th July. Gaming Corporation (GMC), Pursuit Dynamics (PDX) and BNH would also appear to have very positive prospects: the problem here being with the period selected for the portfolio.
4. Returning to the lead performers there appears to be a number of shares still ripe for investment. SEO, NLR and Healthcare Enterprise Group (HCEG), in particular, receive positive broker recommendations at current levels and are all significantly back from their Highs. BGC, Debt Free Direct (DFD), Ideal Direct (IDS), Monstermob (MOB) and Barr (AG) (BAG) appear steady performers that could well continue to out-perform. DGT is a minnow but, as an AIM NOMAD, its trading performance is transparent (see the MoneyAM bb) and there is very considerable North potential.

The overall conclusion that we had a portfolio with a wide range of shares from stars to dogs is not surprising. The individual challenge is quite clear: firstly, in picking the right share(s); secondly, in timing the trades better than the artificial context of an investment game allows."

Any other conclusions to be drawn?

Sorry about that markus (otherwise known as The Shark - but really he is quite a soft touch!).

Well done Seb, Bos, Eric et al.

Good game, good game as Brucie once said rather monotonously.

Thanks Eric for your sterling work over the last few months

the best of luck to all competitors in the future.

capa

congratulations leaders and thanks to Eric for the hard work from me as well. Enjoyed the game and hope we all try again!!

well done , eric. enjoyed the ride!! congrats to seb, ( you jammy git!)( only joking). watch agl fly now it's too late!!!! i agree with your observation , eric, about running your winners.

Many thanks Eric. The benchmark "tortoise" portfolio did me proud and reflects the sort of gains I have had from good quality second line stocks for many years. No substitute for doing your own research in what I believe is still a good value segment of the market (and getting to a few AGMs if you can).

Eric, thanks very much, much appreciated.

Congratulations to seb, and many thanks to eric for all his hard work in puting the portfolio together.

Cheers,

Daws