Just bought into this share, I think its cheap at the current price. I think in time this could be another BUR.

Anyone else holding this and what are other peoples opinions on it?

Thanks

copied from advfn

stevea171 - 25 May'06 - 14:36 - 1945 of 1980


Sommet2. Some facts I published on Emerald board recently:

Just looking at a few metrics wrt Emerald and Gulfsands.

With Gulfsands reporting last Monday and both having a year end of 31/12, it is now possible to do the comparison on an up to date basis for the first time in a while:

..............................Emerald $m..................Gulfsands $m
........................2003.....2004......2005......2003.....2004.....2005
Sales................. 5.0......12.6.......32.1........6.9......33.1......45.0
Profit before tax...0.3...... 3.6........ 8.1........(2.1).....3.5.......1.5
Profit after tax..... 0.1...... 5.0........ 4.2........(2.1).....1.6......(3.9)
EPS................... 0.3c.....11.3c..... 8.2c...................2c......(5c)
Net cash.........................23.6.......20.7.................19.6......36.6
Shares in issue mil..........49.5m.....56.0m...........................93.5m
Share Price.................................270p.............................154p
Capitalization Stg.......................151m.............................144m
P/E Ratio.....................................57.................................NA
Reserves, ex Syria 2P.................14.5mbo.........................32bcf
Reserves, Tigris gas 2P...............221bcf...........................221bcf
PEP/ISAable............................... Yes.........................No



**********************************************************************************
stevea171 - 21 May'06 - 11:44 - 14397 of 14406 edit

Present valuation v's reserves.

In reaching valuations of O&G companies, reserves is the most important measure. We know that Emerald uses particularly conservative reserves estimates iso Gigante and CR block (Gigante in particular is a joke!). However let us just take the company figures at face value and see where that leads us.

Reserves, 2P Colombia: 14.5 mbo
Reserves, 2P Tigris: 221 bcf (@.1781 to 1mbo) = 39.5 mboe
Total Reserves: 54 mbo/mboe

Using a conservative valuation of $7.5/barrel oil in ground (valuations confirmed by actual oil asset sales are improving all the time due to the rising price of oil):

Valuation of reserves: 54 x $7.5 = $405 m = 217 million
Present Market Cap at 270p: 151 million

So ignoring Emerald's $20 m cash at 31/12, the present company valuation is 30% below a reasonable valuation of its current 2P reserves.

Share price corresponding to fair reserves valuation: 387p

If we now assume success at Souedieh North, where results could be announced at any time, in line with estimates of 100 mbo recoverable, 50 mbo to Emerald, then this would almost double the reserves to 104 mbo/mboe.

Fair corresponding sp for Emerald's 2P reserves, incl Souedieh North: 745p

Roll on drilling news in Block 26.

Re above arithmetic . . .

Deduct 20 cash from market cap to get 121m, which is 45% below resereves valuation.

Conversely, add 20m to reserves valuation = 237m, divided by 56m shares is 4.23 per share.

Plus Syrian values as well, of course.

Looking good to hold for the medium, if not long, term.

sd

Prospects for this Company look good. However as a possible investor I have two concerns.
1. The political risk for which there needs to be an acceptable risk premium.
2. All Directors have been awarded large generous stock options but apart from one small holding owned by one director the rest do not own any shares in the Company.

I guess we just await outcome off the following.

A detailed study of the drilling, wireline and sidewall core data from the well
is being undertaken with a review of the seismic data over the area. The well
will be suspended in order to complete these studies and determine if these
reservoirs may be suitable for a fracture stimulation, or similar, testing
program, or whether the well should be deepened. No production testing has been
performed on the well but may be considered as part of any future testing
program after these further analyses have been completed.




Drilling Report

RNS Number:9511D
Emerald Energy PLC
02 June 2006





Emerald Energy Plc


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 2 June 2006

Operations Update - Syria - Souedieh North No.1 Well

Emerald Energy Plc ("Emerald" or the "Company") would like to provide the
following update:

The drilling of Souedieh North exploration well in Block 26 Syria has been
completed. While drilling a series of hydrocarbon shows were recorded and
analysis of the electric wireline logs in the Tertiary and Cretaceous reservoir
sections of the well indicate potential hydrocarbon zones. However, wireline
conveyed sampling tools did not recover any hydrocarbon fluids. Preliminary
analysis indicates that the hydrocarbon is low API gravity oil with a high
viscosity and the low porosity and permeability reservoirs may produce fluid
after mechanical or chemical stimulation.

A detailed study of the drilling, wireline and sidewall core data from the well
is being undertaken with a review of the seismic data over the area. The well
will be suspended in order to complete these studies and determine if these
reservoirs may be suitable for a fracture stimulation, or similar, testing
program, or whether the well should be deepened. No production testing has been
performed on the well but may be considered as part of any future testing
program after these further analyses have been completed.

Alastair Beardsall, Emerald's Chairman, said:

"It is frustrating to see shows while drilling, and record an apparent
hydrocarbon column on the wireline logs, yet not be able to recover any
hydrocarbon fluids. We shall study the results from the well and determine any
further work program accordingly. The evidence from the Souedieh North well is
encouraging and will help to evaluate the other Cretaceous leads on Block 26.
Our efforts and attention will now move to the drilling of Tigris No.1 that is
scheduled to start in August"

Emerald holds a 50% interest in Block 26 in its 100% subsidiary SNG Overseas
Ltd.

Enquiries: Helen Manning 020 7925 2440


Gulfsands Petroleum PLC
02 June 2006

2 June 2006



Gulfsands Petroleum PLC
('Gulfsands' or 'the Company')


Gulfsands Completes Drilling Operations on Souedieh North Well


Gulfsands Petroleum PLC (symbol GPX), the AIM listed oil and gas exploration,
development and production company with activities in the USA, Syria and Iraq,
announces that the Company has concluded initial drilling operations and has
suspended the Souedieh North well in Block 26, Syria pending further analysis of
the well data.


As reported previously, the well encountered a series of live oil and gas shows
in both the primary and the secondary reservoir objectives while drilling.
Wireline electric logs were run within both the primary and secondary
objectives, Tertiary and Cretaceous reservoirs, which indicated oil-bearing pay
zones within both objectives. However, wireline fluid tests of these intervals
did not recover moveable oil. Preliminary analysis shows that the oil is low
API gravity/high viscosity in the Tertiary reservoirs, and that the lower
porosity and permeability Cretaceous reservoirs at this location may produce oil
after mechanical or chemical stimulation. Gulfsands is the operator and 50%
working interest owner in Block 26.


Independent log analysis of the electric wireline logs in both the Tertiary and
Cretaceous reservoir sections of the well indicated some 80 feet of potential
net oil pay. Although live oil was collected in the samples during drilling, no
oil was recovered during wireline tests of these zones. A full review of the
drilling, sample, wireline and sidewall core data is being undertaken, in
conjunction with a further review of the seismic data over the area. Due to the
apparent oil column seen in this well the Company has decided to suspend the
well in order to complete these studies and determine if these reservoirs are
candidates for fracture stimulation or a similar stimulation testing program, or
whether the well should be deepened. No production testing has been performed
on the well but will be considered as part of a future testing program after
these further analyses have been completed.



Gulfsands' CEO, John Dorrier, said:



'We are disappointed not to recover movable oil in this well after encountering
good oil shows while drilling and recording an apparent oil column on the
wireline logs. Further work on the information gathered in this well may
justify further testing, stimulation or deepening operations in the well, and
will certainly be very useful in evaluating the numerous other prospects seen on
the block. The geologic and operations data gathered during drilling Souedieh
North will certainly help in the drilling of the Tigris-1 well scheduled for
August this year.'




Enquiries:
Gulfsands Petroleum (Houston) 001-713-626-9564
David DeCort, Chief Financial Officer

College Hill (London) 020-7457-2020
Ben Brewerton
Nick Elwes

Teather & Greenwood (London) 020-7426-9000
James Maxwell (Corporate Finance)
Tanya Clarke (Specialist Sales)



NB: This release has been approved by Jason Oden, Gulfsands Exploration Manager
who has a Bachelor of Science degree in Geophysics with 22 years of experience
in petroleum exploration and management and is registered as a Professional
Geophysicist. Mr. Oden of Gulfsands and also Peter Hitchens on behalf of
Teather & Greenwood Limited, the Company's Nominated Advisor, have consented to
the inclusion of the material in the form and context in which it appears.

DFGO - 21 Jun'06 - 14:47 - 17082 of 17208 edit

chestnuts
Emerald produced 460,000BBL in 1st half 2005
1st Jan 2005 to 30 June 2005 = 181 producing days.
460,000 divide by 181 days = 2541bopd.

2541bopd averge 1st half 2005, minus CR#1 production 1750bopd [13/4/06 the last production figure shown for CR#1 prior to 03/6/05] = 791barrels minus Gigante#1 production 725bopd [13/4/06 the last production figure shown for
Gigante#1 prior to 03/6/05] = a combined 66bopd from CR#2#3 and V#1

1st Qtr 2006 Emerald average 4400bopd x 90days = 396,000bbl produced 1st Qtr Ref 24/5/06 RNS

In the following i have not allowed for any production from V#1 or CR#1
April 2006 4400bopd minus V#1 954bopd [due to pump problem] = average 3446bopd and minus CR#1 760bopd [due to pump problem]= average 2686bopd x 30 days = 80,580bbl produced for April

Emerald RNS 24/5/06 said Average for May to date 3400bopd.

Taking Emeralds 3400bopd x 61days [May and June]= 207,400bbl produced.


1st Qtr 396,000bbl + April 80,580bbl + May and June 207400 = 683,980bbl for Qtr against, 460,000 1st half 2005

and Silfide CS#1 LA#1 are not included.
And V#1 not included since end of March.

but as always dyor

edit CR#1 included in May and June

But as always dyor

DFGO,
Souedieh's failure to produce while having live oil shows is a bit of a worry for me.I seem to remember reading somewhere(can't find article)that the Syrians
drilled Tigris and found real problems, in fact if my memory serves me right it
took 6/9 months before abandoning their efforts.Just wondering if their's any
similarity with Souedieh's difficulties?
With Drilling Rig's being so scarce i believe holding onto a rig to sort out any
problems might be an issue? Wondering if you can put any light on my concerns?
I'm happy with EEN on Colombian output alone, but feel as much weight is placed
upon Tigris that any such problems would have quite a short term effect on the
SP.
cyril

Tigris is a dangerous venture!

niceonecyril
Imo

Emeralds share price includes nothing for syria at this price.

Another successful well in Colombia



Emerald Energy PLC
14 July 2006


Emerald Energy Plc - 14 July 2006

Drilling Report

Emerald Energy Plc ('Emerald' or the 'Company') is pleased to provide the
following update:

The Company has completed drilling of the Centauro Sur No. 2 appraisal well in
its Campo Rico block in Colombia. The well has been drilled to a total depth of
10,865 feet, completed for testing with an electrical submersible pump and in
the first 24 hours of steady test production produced in excess of 700 barrels
of oil.

Alastair Beardsall, Emerald's Chairman, said: 'We are pleased to have confirmed
the production potential of the Centauro Sur field, discovered earlier in the
year.'

Emerald Energy confirms production potential of Centauro well in Colombia
AFX


LONDON (AFX) - Emerald Energy PLC said its Centauro Sur No. 2 appraisal well in its Campo Rico block in Colombia produced over 700 barrels of oil in the first 24 hours of steady test production.

The well was drilled to a total depth of 10,865 feet.

Chairman Alastair Beardsall said: 'We are pleased to have confirmed the production potential of the Centauro Sur field, discovered earlier in the year.'

This is another new oil field for Emerald in Colombia

EEN still looks very weak and has done little to shake off the image they had a few years ago.

It looks to me to be heading lower still. Fair value around 50p?

Haystack - I disagree, looking at the chart. The SP has not breached the long-term uptrend from Jan 2004 and has moved since then within a fairly reliable upward channel bounded at the top by the twin peaks of April 2004 and 2006.

Not bad after a dry well in Syria and general market malaise since May. On the other hand, if you think Syria is totally dry, sell now.

sd

1stly Haystack is talking b******s and is undoubtably a deramper.

My concern is Syria, while most of the SP is down to Columbia, i feel any association with the above will have a negative effect.
Still a few question remain unanswered but i feel confident that EEN will
deliver.
cyril

I have been following EEN for many years and have owned their shares several times and they have never delivered, particularly in Columbia.

(I have no position in EEN and have not had one for years now).

so why deramp are you short then

you have been banned on advfn it about time moneyam banned you

I am not deramping EEN. I just have some comments which happen to be negative.

Do you only like to read positive views? That is a risky investment strategy.

I am neither short nor long on EEN and have no intention of being. EEN is a stock that I would avoid.

Haystack has never have any positive news on any shares...he is so pessimistic...can you name me one share that you are positive of, Haystack?

I have posted plenty of positive comments of stocks. That has not applied to EEN for years though.

Haystack

whats your opinion on EEN with the new pumps fitted, producing 10,000bopd from Colombia by year end