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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

mostrader - 24 Jan 2005 06:45 - 2984 of 11056

mng jeff,just stuck a long in usd chf@ 40..stop @ 25

mostrader - 24 Jan 2005 06:48 - 2985 of 11056

AUD rebounds to 77 US cents on softer US sentiment

The AUD had found support at around US$0.7570/80 level and climbed back in generally one direction to as high as US$0.7715. The AUD was up about one US cent by the pre-weekend profit-taking after a week of gains in the greenback. The gain followed the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment report that was softer than expected. The preliminary reading of its consumer confidence index for January was 95.8 with the market forecast a rise to 98.0, down from December's final reading of 97.1.

The EUR bounced back against the dollar on Friday after US consumer confidence data was weaker than expected. Market sentiment on the dollar was underpinned by expectations of more US interest rate hikes. The pair had staged a nice recovery toward its resistance level at US$1.3000 from intraday lows of US$1.2934 in the wake of the gloomy US consumer confidence. The highs was touched at US$1.3067 and finished at US$1.3053 into New York close.

The cable tumbled near a US cent from US$1.8738 to intraday lows of US$1.8614 after the UK retail sales data for December showed an unexpected month on month contraction of 1.0 per cent in the Christmas shopping period. Some analysts had expected retail sales to grow at a slower pace than in November but the actual year on year rate of 3.2 per cent was well below the 5.5 per cent the market had been forecasting. The monthly drop was the biggest in December since 1981. However, the cable pulled back from intraday lows to as high as US$1.8809 in the wake of the weaker-than-expected Michigan sentiment.

The dollar attempted to climb higher to intraday peak at 103.91 yen in the afternoon during London trading session. The dollar did not bother to test the 104.00 hurdle but slipped down to as low as 102.63 yen following the release of a softer US sentiment report. Some analysts said Japan might point to the Group of Seven's warning against excessive rate volatility to justify stepping in to buy bundles of dollars if the yen jumped aggressively and threatened peaks since 1995 around 101.25.

Gold finished at US$426.80 an ounce, up about US$4 from Thursday's late quote at US$422.40/90 and intraday highs of US$428.20. Some traders said the market would continue to be guided by currency moves. Silver finished at US$6.78/81an ounce from its late Thursday quote at US$6.52/55.

mostrader - 24 Jan 2005 06:48 - 2986 of 11056

Intraday Range Forecast, Resistance and Support Levels
USD/JPY
Intraday Range Forecast: 102.70 / 103.00
R: 103.00/103.42/103.92
S: 102.49/102.02/101.67

EUR/USD
Intraday Range Forecast: 1.3035 / 1.3060
R: 1.3068/1.3119/1.3138
S: 1.3012/1.2947/1.2922

USD/CHF
Intraday Range Forecast: 1.1835 / 1.1865
R: 1.1878/1.1914/1.1969
S: 1.1833/1.1806/1.1748

GBP/USD
Intraday Range Forecast: 1.8740 / 1.8770
R: 1.8810/1.8860/1.8918
S: 1.8739/1.8689/1.8614

AUD/USD
Intraday Range Forecast: 0.7690 / 0.7715
R: 0.7715/0.7745/0.7798
S: 0.7652/0.7623/0.7565

EUR/JPY
Intraday Range Forecast: 133.95 / 134.25
R: 134.38/134.85/135.07
S: 133.80/133.27/133.01

EUR/GBP
Intraday Range Forecast: 0.6945 / 0.6965
R: 0.6981/0.7012/0.7039
S: 0.6916/0.6873/0.6843

EUR/CHF
Intraday Range Forecast: 1.5450 / 1.5475
R: 1.5505/1.5515/1.5548
S: 1.5441/1.5401/1.5379


Maggot - 24 Jan 2005 07:26 - 2987 of 11056

Morning all.

Divetime - 24 Jan 2005 07:31 - 2988 of 11056

Morning All, I am short Cable at mo

mostrader - 24 Jan 2005 07:39 - 2989 of 11056

mng,yep dt,looks a bit toppish @ these levels,

hodgins - 24 Jan 2005 07:57 - 2990 of 11056

pound short getting more tempting

mostrader - 24 Jan 2005 08:04 - 2991 of 11056

stop out of chf.
still looking to get back in 1800 lvl

Maggot - 24 Jan 2005 08:05 - 2992 of 11056

Very cold here, and snowy. Came in from trying to de-ice the wife's car to see Cable breaking up; went long 05 for +15. It's still going up (of course)

mostrader - 24 Jan 2005 08:17 - 2993 of 11056

magg still a profit..with fx ,,you have to forget all deals ntg u can do,my first trade on chf ,a loser..nt bothered just move on..you are never going to get every move right....guys i know who work for the hedges look to get 3 out of 10 right,but the 3 they do get right,,make the money...

Maggot - 24 Jan 2005 08:25 - 2994 of 11056

mostrader. Letting profits run is so difficult on FX, at the start of a move. So often I've been 10 points up only to see a spike down and immediately I'm losing; I let it run and am soon 20 points down. I am looking to take just a few points for a few weeks to see if I can make a profit, because my records show that I tend to lose on FX what I make on stocks.

mostrader - 24 Jan 2005 08:28 - 2995 of 11056

sure magg, thers no art to taking profits ..theres never a good time or bad time,just get a feel for a certain currency and then you will feel more comfy with the moves.

jeffmack - 24 Jan 2005 08:58 - 2996 of 11056

just got into work to see I was stopped out of my cable short for -30

mostrader - 24 Jan 2005 09:19 - 2997 of 11056

yep jeff all abit choppy this am..

chocolat - 24 Jan 2005 09:29 - 2998 of 11056

Closed Friday's short @ 18770 this morning - you're right, Maggot - take it when it's there. :S Going to wait and see what happens if it has another pop to the 30s.

mostrader - 24 Jan 2005 09:35 - 2999 of 11056

chf bounced off support bang on @ 06,gone long @ 09

jeffmack - 24 Jan 2005 10:15 - 3000 of 11056

Eur/USD seems to have stalled at the 1.3085 level. I'm short 1.3082

jeffmack - 24 Jan 2005 10:34 - 3001 of 11056

short some more at EUR/USD 1.3088

Hotei - 24 Jan 2005 10:53 - 3002 of 11056

short cable at 1.8826, stop at 41 ...
(edit) ... and out for +31

jeffmack - 24 Jan 2005 11:28 - 3003 of 11056

Get down you bitch
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