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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 7th July (CBRY)     

Crocodile - 06 Jul 2003 10:35

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Gold

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fpDJIA.gqplus?511 marketwatch-ss.img?symb=SP500 fpNASDAQ.gqplus?183

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S&P &Futures (Click for latest)

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Pre Market Futures (7:30)
FTSE +25
TechMark +3
DAX +35

Hang Seng +-

Chart

Nikkei +-

Chart

DOW +60
S&P -+6
Nasdaq +12

 

News Headlines:    US Futures sharply higher

 

Calendar

All GMT

ukf.gifUnited Kingdom (F)inals (I)nterim usf.gifUnited States (Click Flag) euro.gifEurope & World

Mon 7th July

Reports / Data

Jacques Vert (F), Mentmore (F), Mitie Group (F)

EasyJet June Traffic

Kingfisher Demerger Ex Date. Terms are 1 Kesa share for 1 Kingfisher, Christian Salvesen AGM

09.30  May Indtrial Production 09.30  May Manufacturing Production 14.00  EU Parliament Economic Committee Meets

CBI financial services survey June National Institute for Economic and Social Research monthly GDP estimate (1200 GMT)

   
Good Trading!   David@FTSEDOW.com    www.FTSEDOW.com

Bloomberg TV          

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Crocodile - 06 Jul 2003 10:36 - 3 of 14

Sunday News 29th June         

Reuters rose Friday after Morgan Stanley said there was scope for significant upgrades.

Galen Weston looks ready for victory in the 600m takeover battle for Selfridges after rival Robert Tchenguiz pulled out of the bidding. Shares tumbled as the Iraqi property investor decided to retreat

After the shock Chelsea football club deal by Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich, up to 20 companies from Russia are ready to float on the London stock market.

FTSE 100 chief executives received an average pay rise of 11.5% last year, despite tumbling share prices (Times)

Sunday Times:

Burberrys Bravo faces pay showdown Yell-ing for joy in flotation bonanza A Share in the Boardroom: Close Brothers Share of the week: Nestor Healthcare Capital Radio retunes for a future without Tarrant Enterprise Network: Tuning up to rock the world Progress Report: Everwhite Elans creditors demand $50m Rothwell battles market rumours over ICG buyout bid Builders warned over insolvency Isis track record to endanger EFM bid Homeowners set to borrow 50bn against house values Bid for Man United fails to kick off Saudi prince gatecrashes Meridien rescue talks Banks use loan power to create electricity colossus Stelios to sell more of Easyjet Eurostar sparks Channel price war Cadbury acts on fat fears Investors pile in for 2bn Yell float Avivas Harvey named as shareholders guardian Fitness role for Lovering Sales soar as Center Parcs swings back India may snub BAE in 1bn Hawk deal Big Food acts to forestall fat attacks Argos whiz-kid to add oomph at WH Smith

Sunday Telegraph

Northern Foods,Uniq Geest is hungry for Prize Foo Selfridges Royal Bank Scotland debt-limit scuppered Tchenguiz bid US loses thirst for Cadbury drinks Amec At last! Eurostar to reach maximum speed in UK Geest is hungry for Prize Food Rothschild to advise on Canary Wharf BAE and Vosper bury the hatchet Incepta Group Stealthy but hefty 'earn-out' tax Chelsea joins the Roman empire, The KGB can spot a gangster HMV's retro rocker EMI Musical mergers Active Value engineers buyout at Wembley Allied Domecq Bacardi profits hit by alcopop tax Geest is hungry for Prize Food Chelsea Village 'I'm no Napoleon'
Observer

Chelsea Village The deal that made a Russian oligarch Carlton-Granada merger stymied by regulators BAE Systems Airbus leading Boeing in battle to land $2bn superjumbo order

Safeway,  WH Smith  Who'll be the next fashion victim? Chelsea Village Oil fuels economic miracle

Chelsea Village Bargain-hunters target Premiership clubs I Feel Good, Jack the dipper wins new chance to impress boys Hamleys, Debenhams, Who'll be the next fashion victim? Chelsea to kick off a whole new ball game  
Independent Electra Investment Trust 'Darth Vader' attacks 700m investment empire Allied Domecq The grape and the good: Allied's alcohol offensive British Land Shareholders in fresh call for British Land break-up Ranieri deserves to thank his lucky tsar Chelsea Village

Eurostar revamps at 300km an hour From Siberia to the Shed - Chelsea's Russian takes route one to respectability

Barclays Cooks its Goose British Energy Bhopal past hangs over BNFL chief

Scotland on Sunday

Devro still skins the field Le Meridien wins RBS deal Royal Bank of Scotland Miller makes it on to Sainsbury short-list Scottish Value Trust Hearing Enhancement gets 306,000 aid Business in brief Abbey National Diageo aims to cut 50m transport bill in half Halladale to post 1.5m profit but worries persist over small market cap Iomart wins contract for Newsquest web services Lloyds TSB Miller makes it on to Sainsbury short-list Thus Halladale to post 1.5m profit but worries persist over small market cap Cattles launches Scots car credit centres Trinity Mirror ponders Scots titles' future Aortech 25m target for Scots biomed fund

Investor Chronicle

*Berkeley Group (BKL), Sell - Millennium & Copthorne (MLC), Sell - - Innovision (INN), Sell.Watermark (WMK), Buy - Tullow Oil (TLW), Buy - Conder (CDE), Buy Hardy Underwriting (HDU), Buy - Antisoma (ASM), Buy - McAlpine (MCA), Buy.Celtic Resources (CER), Good Value - Creston (CRE), Hold - A.

Shares Magazine 

BP (BP) - COE (COE) - HPD Exploration (HPD) - Bodyshop (BOS) - Jacques Vert (JQV) - Rank (RNK) and Acambis (ACM). Stocks to Watch: Brewin Dolphin (BRW) - Safeway (SFW) - Interserve (IRV) - Consolidated Minerals (CNM) - SHL (SHL) - Reuters (RTR) - Sterling Energy (SEY) - Trinity Mirror (TNI) - Warthog (WHOG) - Eidos (EID) - Thistle Mining (TMG). Leeds United (LUFC) - Symphony Plastic (SYM) - Just Car Clinics (JCR) - Landround (LDR).*Parkdean (PDH) - Giardino (GDO) - GX Networks (GXN).

Click the paper name for a link.     david@ftsedow.com     www.ftsedow.com

 

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little woman - 06 Jul 2003 11:51 - 4 of 14

Hi Croc,

A slightly busier week ahead.

It's what I call dividend season as the cash actually arrives! It actually started at the beginning of May, buildings up momentum over June & July, but carrying on until about November then with very little coming in until May again! There have been some excellent payments this year, with many shares paying out over 5% on the amount Invested. (or it would be if I held the shares long enough, but with many also now providing a small gain too, I've been selling too. Currently about 25% up since the end of March.

Da Bear - 06 Jul 2003 17:19 - 5 of 14

Ill say hello and post some thoughts.

Basically these next three weeks are make or break time for the market in the US and ultimately that means European markets also, which have rallied from there March lows. Since the beginning of 2001 each time earnings season came around the recovery hopes kept getting put on the long finger, that is until March this year, when they decided that the recovery time was now. Well now we shall see what the mass of companies reporting over the 3 weeks ahead say of there second half prospects.

Stocks are way overpriced at current levels, how can a possible Bull market be launched from where we are now, on a price-earnings ratio of 33 for the S&P 500 Index. That's nearly twice as much as fair value. It would have to create history to kick start from where we are now.

Those sitting on the Boards of these companies who have the inside view of what is really happening cant sell quick enough. If these people have no confidence, then why should anyone else?

Commercial traders are Bearish with a vengeance; they have been busy selling while Joe Public is still buying. Take a look at the S+P 500 Commitments of Traders Report chart below and you will see that they bought before the Rally started, before small traders jumped on the band wagon, now they are calling a top and shorting yet again long before the CNBC disciple buying public have smelt the coffee. Take a look at the NASDAQ 100 chart and see how they are now even more bearish than they were in 2001.

http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/cot.htm

Any Investors out there have to get away from the buy-and-hold mindset. This is going to be a trading market. I would really like to see a retest of the recent highs and the .618% #s of 1019/20 on SPX and 9350 area on the DOW or 9474 if the CNBC machine with there never ending parade of Bullish guests can suck in some more little guys. But when all is said and done Im of the belief that 3 weeks is the Maximum till this Bear market rally is buried, these 3 weeks should be quite choppy as is typical topping out activity, the usual buy the dip Bull mode is deeply engrained.

Da Bear - 07 Jul 2003 15:14 - 6 of 14

its wild out here today huh, all the buildings still standing after the long US w/e, so thats bullish.

Da Bear - 07 Jul 2003 15:27 - 7 of 14

Remember the day after the 4th of july holiday last year, Dow + 400, got to love it

Da Bear - 07 Jul 2003 15:32 - 8 of 14

Curbs triggered at +180 on the Dow, lets see if the programs now turned off change anything, they account for about 1/3 of the action.

Da Bear - 07 Jul 2003 18:24 - 9 of 14

We are desperately close to a top here, just need one more climatic buying day and i'll be happy to short into it.

Da Bear - 07 Jul 2003 18:32 - 10 of 14

U.S. stock markets still bleeding cash-UBS report

NEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - Investors withdrew a net $595 million from U.S. stock markets in the week ended July 4, UBS reported on Monday, pushing the four-week moving average of UBS-tracked equity flows to the lowest level since March 1999.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030707/markets_forex_ubs_1.html



Da Bear - 07 Jul 2003 18:36 - 11 of 14

Looks like i've Commandeered this thread.... lol, is always so quiet around here?

Jules - 07 Jul 2003 19:37 - 12 of 14

Da Bear
Just upgrade
we're lots of fun on the traders room,same thread:-))

Da Bear - 07 Jul 2003 21:10 - 13 of 14

Thanks Jules, will check that out

jgp212 - 07 Jul 2003 21:33 - 14 of 14

CS. is a short long!!

Enjoy the ride!!

:-)

Jeff
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