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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday18th August (BA.)     

Crocodile - 17 Aug 2003 15:08

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Gold

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fpDJIA.gqplus?511 marketwatch-ss.img?symb=SP500 fpNASDAQ.gqplus?183

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S&P &Futures (Click for latest)

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Pre Market Futures (7:30)
FTSE +8
TechMark +2
DAX +10

Hang Seng +169

Chart

Nikkei +6

Chart

DOW +16
S&P +3.5
Nasdaq +1.7

 

News Headlines:    BP and Shell should support the early FTSE gains after a rise after a rise in crude oil prices due to the attack on the main Iraqi pipeline.

The Nikkei closes above 10,000 for the first time in a year after a gain of 169 points.

Michael Page recruitment has posted a smaller-than-feared drop in first-half profit and says it expects its markets to remain challenging, but stable, for the rest of this year. Profit fell to 11.1 million pounds in the six months to June 30 from 18 million the year before with analyst forecasts ranging from 8.0-10.0 million pounds.

MyTravel says it has finalised the terms of its proposal to extend the maturity of 221.6 million pounds worth of convertible bonds which should mean its imminent future is assured.. The firm hopes to extend the maturity of all the firm's borrowings until at least 2006 as part of a refinancing of the bulk of its debts.

Calendar

All GMT

ukf.gifUnited Kingdom (F)inals (I)nterim usf.gifUnited States (Click Flag) euro.gifEurope & World

Mon 18th August

Reporting

Company Updates

Financial Data

Headlam Group (I), Michael Page (I)Safeway Competition Commission report on takeover bids Toys R US (Q2)

18.00 August NAHB 63.0 exp.

 
Good Trading!   David@FTSEDOW.com    www.FTSEDOW.com

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Crocodile - 17 Aug 2003 15:09 - 3 of 10

Sunday News 17th August        

Rolls-Royce is in contention to replace the engines on the U.S. Air Force's mainstay B-52 bomber in a deal worth upwards of $3 billion (1.8 billion pounds), the Sunday Times reports. British Airways is offering to take a major stake in Swiss International Air Lines, while Germany's Lufthansa is eyeing a full takeover, a Swiss newspaper reports. Wall Street began trading on time, despite being hit by the biggest blackout in American history. BAE Systems, Europe's largest defence contractor, is paying a consultant to broker a merger deal with a U.S. defence firm, the Sunday Telegraph says. THE Pensions Ombudsman, David Laverick, has called for a swift change in the law to prevent employees being left destitute when their employer goes bust. Glasgow emergency power firm Aggreko was gearing up to provide a second jolt of power to north-east America last night after its generators were drafted in to cope with the US blackout.

Sunday Times:

Trinity Mirror And Finally ... OReilly hoping Mirror titles will not be an unholy trinity SMG Scottish TV considers move out of Glasgow Ryanair leaves no-frills in the departure lounge BAT draws up plans for Turkish acquisition Kingspan Irish Business Digest 3i Group Business Digest HBOS Scottish Business Digest BA joins Virgin in US charm offensive BSkyB RTE close to goal in live soccer showdown Reed Elsevier Quiet man revives growth Allied Irish Bank offers credit card to the super-rich BHP Billiton Coal giant is stoking up a bid for Drax Sainsbury close to property arm sal Moran plans to bow out of IWP International HBOS Business Digest Irish Agenda: Ryanair Irish carriers lead way as low-cost air travel takes off A Share in the Boardroom: Electric Word Directors' Deals: BSkyB chiefs score with share sales Sharewatch: Landround Torrington admits Bula is dead Bula Resources Granada , Carlton Show may be over on TV gains Share of the Week: Michael Page Old Mutual pins hopes on a new manager Sharewatch: Unilever Weir Group Effective rewards Astra Zeneca seeks $5bn pick-me-up BAE hires Thatchers strike buster to broker US merger Prufrock: Ryanairs OLeary is cleared to taxi BT Group Mobile calls have hidden charges
Shares in power generator International Power have risen from a low of 70p in March to 155p, and with some Continental countries forced to buy their power from Britain this is likely to continue. The yield* of 6.4% puts International Power in the middle of the range of electricity companies. Buy. Travel promotions company Landround made greater pre-tax profits in the half year to March than the whole of the year to September 2002. Broker WH Ireland has upgraded its profit forecast for the current year to 1.7 million and is not ruling out further upgrades. The shares have slipped from a year's high of 308p and are now at 291 1/2p. Car dealer Lookers' share price has taken off over the past year, climbing from 138p to 288 1/2p. It still yields 3.4% and trades on a price earnings ratio of 12.6. With changes to the rules governing dealer franchises in October, shares could go even higher.

Sunday Telegraph

Alizyme hoists 'for sale' sign Canary Wharf axes more construction managers Allders seeks House of Fraser stake and weighs up bid BHP Billiton poised to join bid battle for Drax power station

Celltech's slow journey towards its first blockbuster

GUS jobs at risk if OFT blocks merger Vodafone in 1.4bn Japanese disposal Adland takes heart as WPP signals growth

Pharmaceuticals group AstraZeneca is hoping sales of its new cholesterol-lowering drug Crestor will drive growth over the next decade. But shares, which have risen from 24.90 at the start of last week to 25.93, have already had a good run and the good news is reflected in the current price. Sell. Smith & Nephew is well placed to build on its position as the world's fastest growing orthopaedics company. Chief executive Sir Chris O'Donnell has made it clear that Centerpulse, the medical company for which Smith is bidding, is not a must-have and has decided not to raise the 1.5 billion bid. Keep buying
Observer

Rivals ask EC to ban BSkyBdeal US group bids 550m for Invensys division BSkyB Sky News scraps plan to launch in America

Nipping Marconi in the bud

Sun sets on cable man who reached for BSkyB Observer Engine of change at Rolls BSkyB Falling off the brand wagon, clear for canny Ball  
Daily Mail HBOS Boost for investors in bank shake-up Tellings Golden to announce first buy Eldridge Pope to repel Cannon advance 180m Sainsbury's sell-off EMI's 625m swoop on Warner Better times ahead, says WPP chief BSkyB Sky faces EC block over football rights
EMI, battered by internet piracy and plunging CD sales, has bid 625 million for the recorded music division of Warner Music in an attempt to scupper merger negotiations between the US company and Germany's BMG.
Independent BAE pursues Lockheed over $40m compensation claim Scottish and Newcastle Pub chain to float if it captures S&N SCTN: You can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear, so instead he's doing it from the hog's head Randgold Who will have the Midas touch in Ghana?
Last month banking giant HBOS reported a 21% jump in interim pre-tax profits, boosted by strong lending, while net* income rose to 1.16bn. Despite this shares fell 2.2% on the day and have largely continued to drift south since. The results contained no nasty surprises and buying now could be a chance to get the stock (750p) on the relative cheap. But bad news about the housing market could see the shares suffer even more.

Scotland on Sunday

Barc, BP, Sainsbury, Debenhams, Vodafone Nectar enjoys sweet taste of success Bank of Scotland in talks on Sainsbury property deal Strike over at British Energy plant Edinburgh Fund Managers Fears grow that ISIS will throw EFM to wolves Weir results will signal impact of Iraq conflict on the oil industry British Airways, Ryanair Holdings O'Leary plays the name game Gresham surge helps Aberdeen Asset Management Business news in brief, Stagecoach Group Celtic Haughey to sell 300m business to workforce Royal Bank of Scotland Goodwin gets his priorities right HBOS, Bank of Scotland in talks on Sainsbury property deal Business news in brief Robert Wiseman New burden of responsibility in the air for high-flying Ryanair chief
Sunday Express IT hardware company Fayrewood produced strong interim results this month, with operating profits up 43% on sales up 8%. The 2 million invested in underperforming UK distributor Interface should help bring the scale needed to achieve profitability. Buy at 79p. The heatwave has boosted sales of soft drinks which is good news for can-maker Rexam. ING Financial Markets expects the group's first-half revenue to fall by 3% to 1.63bn. Sales are expected to rise by 5%, although not in the weaker German market. Buy at 173 1/4p. Healthcare provider NMT Group delivered very strong results for the first half of 2003 and the future is looking good after large orders from healthcare group Roche for its syringes. No other syringe suppliers have emerged to challenge NMT's contract with Roche. Buy at 2.12p.

Investor Chronicle

Buy Cookson at 31p - Lawrence at 218p - NWF at 372p and Top Ten Holdings at 81p, Sell RAC at 571p and Telemetrix at 81p Buy Eckoh Technology - Quarto - Yule Catto - Peter Hambro Mining, McCarthy & Stone - fairly priced, Keep buying Alizyme, Sell Millennium & Copthorne

Shares Magazine 

Buy New Media Spark at 9.5p - GET Group at 179p - Fenner at 72p - Virtue Broadcasting at 2.75p (Speculative). Buy UK Coal.Sell Jarvis.Sell or Hold Galen Holdings, Company profiles:Chloride - CeNeS - Toad JKX Oil and Gas - Melrose Resources - Dana Petroleum - Cairn Energy - Ramco Energy - Sterling Energy Other companies focused: Xansa - HelpHire - Jarvis - Mouchel - Serco - Rolls-Royce

Click the paper name for a link.     david@ftsedow.com     www.ftsedow.com

 

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angi - 17 Aug 2003 18:38 - 4 of 10

Crocodile, thanks for all your analyses. I must admit that I am feeling fairly bullish but where ever I look gloom and doom is predicted. I've just read a report on PrudentBear - Is it 2003 or 1987 on Wall Street - showing many charts to identify comparisons between the rise before the 1987 crash and 2003 rise. Am I being foolish presuming that as we rose post March this year after a big drop that the comparisons are wrong. I know that history repeats itself and I'm sure that many folks want it to, having mastered the art of shorting but should we be paying more attention to the recovery in many shares (if only by slimming in some cases) to face the next cycle.

What am I missing? What's your view?

Is there a UK site similar to PrudentBear and even PrudentBull? I'd really appreciate knowing what's going on here.

capt M - 17 Aug 2003 20:56 - 5 of 10

Thanks Croc.

Symbian Q2 results on 21 Aug - Psion anyone?

little woman - 17 Aug 2003 21:21 - 6 of 10

Thanks croc,

Although I think that companies are a lot stronger than we give them credit for, I am a bit worried about the number of people who are trying to become day traders (or at least having a go) who are really aware of easy it is to lose money because they think it's really easy to make money. (Some may think I could be in this category but I do limit my exposure, just in case the market does something unexpected, which it does on a regular basis!)

The market will go up, but if it starts to drop slightly, panic may set in, as people attempt to keep profits, or limit losses. The trouble is the longer it goes up, the bigger the panic if it drops! I hope I am wrong.....

Crocodile - 17 Aug 2003 22:27 - 7 of 10

angi,
I personally believe that previous chart comparisons do not mean the same will hgappen again. Trade the trends that you see at the present time and do not worry about what happened in 1987.
If you are worried have an equal balance between longs and shorts to cover yourself against a big fall such as another September 11th.

little woman
90% of day traders lose money. As you say it is not easy!
I do suggest that anyone interested in trading full time considers a training course first to learn about disciplined trading.
D.


Mega Bucks - 17 Aug 2003 22:32 - 8 of 10

I went on one of Crocs courses last november i am starting to make some money now before then nil :-)

I think you could find were they are here WWW.FTSEDOW.COM cheap at half the price.

Mega....

Druid2 - 18 Aug 2003 08:00 - 9 of 10

Morning all.

little woman - 18 Aug 2003 17:40 - 10 of 10

Managed to sell Vod finally with a respectable profit. Hopefully it'll now drop back down so I can buy it again! But no hurry! Bought a few more BT, couldn't resist when it dropped below 1.90!
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