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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 8th September (BGY)
Crocodile - 07 Sep 2003 12:35
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S&P &Futures (Click for latest)
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Pre Market Futures (7:30) | |
| FTSE | -18 | ||
| TechMark | -3 | ||
| DAX | +5 | ||
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Hang Seng -77
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Nikkei +32
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DOW | +12 |
| S&P | +1.1 | ||
| Nasdaq | +1.5 | ||
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News Headlines: Bovis Homes posted an 11 percent rise in half-year profit thanks to the boom in the housing market in the north of England Profits for the six months to June 30 rose to 46 million pounds above analysts' forecasts of 42-45 million pounds. It boosted its interim dividend by 15 percent to 5.3 pence. IMI engineering met forecasts with a three percent rise in profit of 68.3 million pounds near the top-end of analysts' forecasts. They have almost finished the restructuring of the company by moving to cheaper manufacturing areas and selling non-core assets William Hill biggest betting shop chain, reported a return to half-year profits and said its second-half would be dependent on sporting results in the coming months. The company reported profits of 85.6 million pounds (after a 12.2 million pounds loss previously, compared to analysts forecasts of around 88 million pounds. Chelsfield CEO said he expected to lead a consortium takeover bid for the company by mid next month Punch Taverns said it would raise around 250 million pounds in a refinancing deal to help fund new acquisitions and increase its debt capacity. They added that current trading was in line with its expectations Taylor Nelson market research said it expected turnover growth in line with its forecasts for the full year. They reported first-half profit of 20.7 million pounds, up 8.9 percent on the year-ago period. Travis Perkins building materials firm said firsts half profits rose 22.4 percent as Britons continued their relentless building drive and demand for its products grew. Profit leapt to 80.8 million and said it would pay an interim dividend of 7.6 pence, up from 6.1p. Forth Ports Britain's third-largest ports operator, reported first-half underlying pre-tax profits in line with forecasts and said it was confident 2003 would a successful year. Profit rose 11 percent to 13.5 million pounds from 12.1 million last year with analysts forecasts ranged from 12.4 to 14.5 million.
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Crocodile - 07 Sep 2003 12:36 - 3 of 24
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Sunday News
7th September
Chemical attack drill on the Tube at BANK. Hundreds of police and emergency services personnel will respond to a simulated terrorist strike on London today. The exercise will involve a make-believe chemical attack on a Tube train at Bank station in central London. Scores of "casualties" will be decontaminated in the streets of the Square Mile, the capital's financial district. Full Story Britain's economy is still fragile and the Bank of England should avoid raising interest rates too soon, Ernst and Young uses the same economic forecasting model as the Treasury, says fragile business spending, the sluggishness of the euro zone economy and consumers' growing debt burden could still derail Britain's fledgling recovery. Defence Billions of pounds in contracts for tanks, submarines, frigate and aircraft face the axe in a budget review carried out for a new white paper on defence policy. Small business A tax in which up to 1m husband and wife limited companies could be hit with unexpected demands for back-payments looks set to be reviewed by the Inland Revenue after months of intense pressure. Telecoms: A shortage of 'third-generation' video phones is threatening 3s chances of hitting its target of 1m customers by the end of the year. Carphone Warehouse is among those waiting for phones. Wealth: Britain now has more women millionaires (299,300) than men (271,700), according to a study that puts the shift down to changing social trends such as the climbing divorce rate and equal treatment of sons and daughters in inheritance. Royal Bank of Scotland and Weir Group have dismissed claims by a US lawyer that they helped Saddam Hussein build up Iraq's chemical weapons capability in the lead up to the first Gulf war. |
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Kerry Group shows the way with smooth handover at the top Collins Stewart analyst finds tracker in car Northern Foods boss departs Plea to Cayzers over Caledonia Investments Royal and Sun Alliance boss fights to win over investors Brascan salvo at Canary Wharf BT Group Number of wi-fi hotspots to treble Ryanair Holdings OLeary closes in on 1m a year Investors attack Monsoon directors Sharewatch: Northern Foods Paddy Power Daire O'Brien: Bets on the here and now Clydeport staff face pension bill Berkeley boss knocks down his holding Paddy Power Holdings Working Day |
Selfridges Peter Williams' working day Brewer in Vodafone move Sharewatch: Buyout chance offers hope on the Horizon Technology Ryanair Holdings Scotland fights for extra air routes Andrew Davidson: A dandy dresser in designer heaven British Airways Mulcahy to push for sale of Aer Lingus Vital Statistics Paddy Power Dawson International Woolly times ahead Judgment Day: Should you be buying shares in Bellway? Forth Ports Scottish Business Digest HSBC Shares could soar 15% by end of year Vital Statistics Selfridges Scottish Radio Dublin radio station attracts British bids BAA Scotland fights for extra air routes |
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| British Energy Ministers are drawing up plans to take British Energy, the indebted nuclear power company, back into public ownership if a deal with creditors cannot be reached in the next three weeks. Monsoon Angry shareholders have asked for assurances that the retailers directors did not act illegally over a controversial put option being offered to investors.Punch Taverns The shake-up in the ownership of Britains pubs will gather pace on Monday when Punch Taverns announces it is raising more than 300m to fund a new acquisition spree. Housebuilder Bellway has a very strong record. Since 1995 the company has increased earnings per share* by 20% a year, matched by a post-tax return on invested capital during that period of 18.2%. For any asset, investors should worry when supply exceeds demand, but demand is exceeding supply at the moment, not only for Bellway's houses, but for its shares as well. Schroders owns a 3.2% stake. If Bellway slips up, it will join the likes of Bryant and Wilson Connolly in being owned by larger groups. Buy. | ||||||||
| Amec flies the flag for British industry in Iraq Bernerd faces deadline on bid for Chelsfield BSkyB aims to triple Sky Plus subscriptions |
BAE made fixed-price U-turn to win Hawk deal Son of Matalan founder makes 54m bid for Austin Reed 'I've been all over Royal & SunAlliance like a rash' |
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| BAA The Government has told BAA that it will redeem its 'golden share' in the privatised airports company, paving the way for a possible break-up of the company or sale of Heathrow, Stansted or Gatwick airports. British Energy The Government has issued an ultimatum to creditors of British Energy that the stricken nuclear generator will be forced into administration at the end of this month unless they sign up to a new financing package. Cedar Thousands of small shareholders in the software firm Cedar are being forced to sell out to Alchemy, the venture capital firm, at just 3p-a-share after an 18-month battle to retain a stake in the former stock market darling. easyCinema A price war is set to break out in British cinemas after 20th Century Fox agreed to supply Stelios easyCinema, which offers seats for as little as 1 on releases of new films. Tesco A much-heralded '60m' price cutting campaign has been ridiculed by rivals after it emerged it had slashed the cost of Christmas puddings, Christmas cakes and mince pies at the height of summer. After announcing a 15-year extension to its 3 billion contract to manage the UK Atomic Weapons Establishment, support Serco (183p) services group has gone from strength to strength. A 3.6 billion, 25-year deal to run the Merseyrail franchise pushed orders to 9.9 billion in the first half and the firm last week said it has tabled a further 6 billion worth of bids. Interim profits rose 10% to 31.3 million. The Government continues to rely on groups like Serco to provide services for the NHS, schools and the nuclear industry. Keep buying. | ||||||||
| Observer | Asda plot to stop Green Safeway bid Dip in sales adds to Dixons' worries FSA widens Collins Stewart shares inquiry Granada's Allen signs for Olympic bid team |
Collins Stewart Tullett The Middleweek tapes Royal and Sun Alliance Haste required to sort out right Royal mess at insurer William Morrison Asda plot to stop Green Safeway bid |
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| Safeway A joint 2.7bn bid for Safeway could be made by supermarket rivals Asda and Wm Morrison if multi-millionaire Bhs boss Philip Green wades in with a counter-bid next month. BskyB: The European Commission is set to level charges of price-fixing at the Premier League for the second time this year, if, as expected, it finds that BSkyB was the only bidder for most of its live match packages. Dixons The electrical retailer is expected to confirm fears this week that the long hot summer has hit sales by as much as 2% in the last four months on the same period last year. | ||||||||
| Sunday Mail: | Watchdog to probe Collins deal Stock sold before insider row broke Sweets go in Northern shake-up, Sale to mint less than 10m Hornby puts on model performance | 100m on the cards for Photo-Me sale, Non-execs may dispose of holdings Chelsfield board urges chairman's bid, Bernerd told to make intentions clear Marconi set to rejoin FTSE 250, Telecoms company worth 890m | ||||||
| Independent |
Bradford & Bingley in drive for Swinton PizzaExpress, Punch Taverns Osmond to face probe over ski bar purchase The Week Ahead: UK Coal The Week Ahead: British Airways, |
Business View: Ouch! The City grabs Royal & SunAlliance by the short and curlies BA and Yell shout case for promotion The Week Ahead National Express |
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Bradford & Bingley: The former building society is planning to make a move into selling motor insurance and is in talks to buy the Swinton chain of high-street brokers for around 100m. Hugh Osmond: The City entrepreneur behind Punch Taverns and PizzaExpress is to be investigated over a deal to buy a small chain of bars from a travel company that collapsed earlier this year IEasynet, an internet service provider through its UK Online plus its pan-European hardware, software and consultancy business, survived the technology boom and bust. The fall in its share price to 135p (Friday close) from a 2,950p high in October 2000, gives new investors an opportunity to snap up the stock at a more sensible price. The business is doing well, with losses falling and Marconi removing a final overhang by selling its 40% stake. Buying into the stock is not risk free, but could eventually pay off. |
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| BAE boss begins battle for reputation Stoddard International Bosses deserve a carpeting Clyde & Forth enter ring to buy Trinity Mirror titles Debenhams Business news in brief John Wood Group Group to report profits up | P&O risks 6m redundancy bill over axed route Aberdeen Asset Management Finding the perfect fit Forth Ports 5m plans to double freight capacity Scottish and Southern Energy Business news in brief | |||||||
| Sunday Express | Costain cpnstruction is set for second half improvements after a 30% rise in interim profits of 6.1 million. Costain has focused in recent years on markets in which it can perform well against rivals. The investment bank Arbuthnot considers it a buy at 35 1/2p. Ask Central restaurant chain strong results demonstrates it is back on track after a difficult trading period. A new American-style diner, Joe Shmo's, suggests it is being innovative. Buy at 154p. | |||||||
| Buy Centrica at 178p - Alpha Airports at 78p - First Quantum Minerals at 315p - First Calgary Petroleum at 53p - Inveresk at 18p. Sell NXT at 178p. Tip Updates: Buy Cardpoint - Ramco Energy - GlaxoSmithKline, Hold Debenhams - Whitbread is high enough. Company Results: Buy Paddy Power, Sell Computacenter and Hilton Group | ||||||||
| The Plays of the Week:Buy MTL Instruments at 160p - Centurion Electronics at 81p - Home Entertainment at 219p - 2Travel Group at 9.5p. Tip Updates: Buy/Hold Pilat Media and Molins Corporate Profile: WH Smith Group Small caps taking great steps: Legend Surf Shops - Doctors Direct - Faupel Trading - Coral Products - Dawmed Systems - Wigmore Group - Computerland - Victoria - Eleco - DRS Data - Shiloh | ||||||||
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little woman
- 07 Sep 2003 14:27
- 4 of 24
Looks like a busy week ahead!
jgp212
- 07 Sep 2003 15:47
- 5 of 24
Bolly Yes :-)
Footy Down :-(
Jeff
ThePlayboy
- 08 Sep 2003 07:19
- 6 of 24
R2 4282.3
R1 4269.7
PP 4248.4
S1 4235.8
S2 4214.5
Close above Fri pp, only lost 0.4pts in the auction so not much selling there!
WEEKLY FTSE PP
R2 4350.4
R1 4303.8
PP 4232.4
S1 4185.8
S2 4114.4
Close above the weekly R2 level this week,
ThePlayboy
- 08 Sep 2003 07:20
- 7 of 24
Key DOW Levels for 9/8
UP Above 9,550
DN Below 9,450
Pull-Back
Dow pulls back off highs, holds above 9,450.
From prior commentary, "...the consolidation that is forming is more or less in the shape of a rectangle, and this kind of consolidation can break down fairly easily. A break below 9,540 will likely lead to a pull-back off the current highs..."
The Dow finally got a retracement after rallying solidly over the course of the previous six sessions. Looking at the 15 Minute Chart shows that the index broke the lower boundary of the consolidation at 9,540 and continued lower throughout much of the session.
However, as we have mentioned before, the Dow continues to look fairly strong in the overall medium term uptrend. We could see the index pull back even further before another move higher is seen. Look for a likely move back down toward the major lower trend line that has formed beneath the lows of the Daily Chart, which is around the 9,375 area. A break of this trend line will likely spark a significant push lower; but look for the index to continue trending higher above it.
The Dow has formed a short term trend line above the highs of today's downmove, seen in the 15 Minute Chart. An upside break of the line at 9,525 will likely spark further upside movement. A break above the recent highs of 9,610 will indicate even further strength.
Short Term Dow
Short term, we will watch the trend line that has formed across the highs of the 5 Minute Chart. An upside break of the line at 9,520 will likely spark a move higher tomorrow morning.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we closed Longs this morning at 9,535, giving us a 54 point gain for the trade. We later entered the market Short at 9,528, and are still in the position. We will continue to hold breakeven stops for Monday's market. Stay Short below 9,450, and look for Longs above 9,550, with 10 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P each pulled back today, taking modest loses for the session. The NASDAQ has formed a clear range at the highs, which we will watch closely Monday. Likewise for the S&P. *
Summary
The Dow got the downside break from the consolidation today, which costed the index 85 points today. The index continues to look strong in the medium term, but we will likely see a further retracement before another move higher is seen. Watch 9,450 down, and 9,550 up Monday.
Crocodile - 08 Sep 2003 07:44 - 8 of 24
skinny
- 08 Sep 2003 07:48
- 9 of 24
little woman
- 08 Sep 2003 09:43
- 10 of 24
Druid2 - are you holding PRU shorts? I noticed first thing they had dropped again, but they seem to be recovering.
I'm long Lloy too!
little woman
- 08 Sep 2003 11:45
- 11 of 24
ianflemming - 08 Sep 2003 12:40 - 12 of 24
little woman
- 08 Sep 2003 13:14
- 13 of 24
No I'm not a full time investor (wish I was) and I still work for a living!I'm lucky to work from home on and off, so trade if I can on those days - and then find I have to work on the weekends to make up for lost time! Personally I can't earn enough working so trade for the little extras in life, and spend about 50% of what I make. I try and reinvest the rest, as I need to think of my future and hopefully create enough money so I don't have to work anymore!
About 25 years ago, the father of a friend of mine died leaving her mother (who is still living today) a share portfolio which provided her with a dividend income of over 35,000pa then. (His two children also were given 75,000 in shares which they both cashed in and put into property). He had put all his spare money into shares over 40 years and even today, many people would be happy to receive annual dividend income of $35K. I know I would! Something to aim (rather than dream) for!
jph321
- 08 Sep 2003 13:26
- 14 of 24
quick quiery regarding MBF(mobile future) in shares magazine director dealings pg 58. it refers to one of the directors spending 1 million on shares at 0.25p per share, but at quantity of only 4 million shares bought should the cost not be 100k not 1 million. (big misscalculation by someone at moneyAM i think.
especially for such a small highrisk company.
Bullshare
- 08 Sep 2003 13:36
- 15 of 24
ianflemming - 08 Sep 2003 14:16 - 16 of 24
Crocodile - 08 Sep 2003 15:16 - 17 of 24
Welcome!
little woman
- 08 Sep 2003 15:24
- 18 of 24
vasey
- 08 Sep 2003 15:28
- 19 of 24
Crocodile - 08 Sep 2003 15:30 - 20 of 24
So it might be worth keeping your eyes on Cadbury for a tasty short.
Crocodile - 08 Sep 2003 15:30 - 21 of 24
little woman
- 08 Sep 2003 15:42
- 22 of 24
Thanks Mike, David, & David! (Sorry chq not in post, because I need to go shopping with it!)
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