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Traders Thread - Wednesday 17th September (KGF)
Crocodile - 16 Sep 2003 22:12
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US stocks rose quickly on news that that the Federal Reserve plans to keep interest rates unchanged for the foreseeable future UK shares are set to race ahead after a rally by stocks in the U.S and Far East after the FED left interest rates were left unchanged. Kingfisher Britains number 1 home DIY retailer reported first-half underlying profits which beat expectations on Wednesday but said recent sales had slowed. Profits of 309 million pounds compared with top analysts' estimates of 290 million pounds. It was a rise of about 24 percent and stripped out its Kesa Electricals unit. Recent sales at Kingfisher have slowed, as expected, due to the hot weather but the retailer said there would be no big profit impact. The combined group took an anticipated 280 million pound exceptional charge, mostly relating to the demerger of Kesa. Dividends were increased by approx 3% Kesa Electricals said it had made an encouraging start to the second half of its year in its first set of results. The owner of UK electrical chain Comet said pre-tax profit for the 26 weeks ended August 2 was up 32.7 percent to 60 million pounds. The firm declared an interim dividend of 2.5 pence per share Xstrata Plc London-listed miner reported better-than-expected first-half profits and said the year ahead would be good on the back of recovering world markets and commodity prices. Profit fell to $76.8 million during the half year to June 30 from $112.9 million a year earlier, but well above the consensus figure of $68 millionBAT: A federal appeals court has upheld the dismissal of all damage claims against U.S. cigarette makers in a suit brought by two health maintenance organizations to recover smoking-related health care costs. Moody's Investors Service said it may still cut British American Tobacco's BAA1 long-term senior unsecured ratings.WS Atkins: consultancy, support services and engineering firm said l it expected to report interim and full year results ahead of its June forecasts and significantly better than last year. News will be posted at 7:35am Hiscox insurer said first-half operating profit more than doubled, beating consensus estimates of 25 million pounds Taylor & Francis educational and professional publisher said its interim pre-tax profit climbed 24 percent, citing high renewal rates at its journals and strength in U.S. book sales. Profit for the six months was 16.5 million pounds. Turnover rose 12 percent to 73.9 million pounds.
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ThePlayboy
- 17 Sep 2003 07:11
- 3 of 17
WED FTSE PP
R2 4329.2
R1 4314.1
PP 4286.8
S1 4271.7
S2 4244.4
Close above Tue pp and the weekly R1, only gained 0.2 pts in the auction, my weekly tgt at R2 4325 has nearly been met.
Updated 9/16 for Wednesday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 9/17
UP Above 9,610
DN Below 9,450
Late-Day Rally
Dow breaks range to upside, rallies sharply to the Close.
From prior commentary, "...the Dow shows a well-formed sloping pennant consolidation, seen in the Daily and 60 Minute Charts. This pattern is typically bullish, especially when formed in an uptrend. Continue to watch for an upside break from it at 9,500, which would likely spark a sharp rally..."
The Dow got the upside break from the pattern early in the session, but traded sideways at the highs before taking off for a sharp 119 point rally late in the day, seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. The sloping pennant was well-formed and indicated that such a break was imminent.
The upside break from the range will likely initiate another major move up within the sharp uptrend, seen in the Daily Chart. But first, we want to see if the index can hold on to today's gain and form a continuation pattern which would indicate further upside potential. A higher low or a consolidation at the highs should do the trick. Watch for such a pattern tomorrow.
A break back below 9,500 will indicate weakness, while a break of the major lower trend line at 9,450 will indicate even more of a decline.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow rallied sharply late in the session, forming a clear lower trend line beneath the lows of the 1 Minute Chart. The Dow got a slight break of the lower trend line just before the Close, which hints at a retracement tomorrow morning. A break through 9,575 will signal further strength.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we entered the market Long today at 9,500, but stopped out of the trade for a 10 point loss. We later re-entered the market Long at 9,512 and are still in the position. We will continue to hold stops at the entry to give the index wiggle room, as we believe further upside movement is very likely. Stay Long above 9,610, and Short below 9,450, with 10 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P each mirrored the Dow today, as each index rallied sharply to the Close, gaining significantly for the session. Look for signs of a continuation tomorrow. *
Summary
The Dow got a solid break through 9,500 today, which sparked a sharp rally to the Close. The upside break from the large pennant implies further upside movement in the medium term. Otherwise, a break below 9,450 will indicate weakness.
Crocodile - 17 Sep 2003 07:43 - 4 of 17
TomL
- 17 Sep 2003 08:45
- 5 of 17
Well, with 4300 broken, it now appears that 4400 is the next hurdle. But I continue to be cautious in my outlook for 2 reasons:-
1. The surge in ny mkts yesterday was abysmally supported by poor money flow stats; and
2. ukx still needs to successfully retest 125dma (at least) before resuming its uptrend.
Whilst these technical factors remain, I think the ukx looks unstable and vulnerable to setbacks. In other words, it lacks a following wind to go the distance.
On an individual stock basis, plenty of great opportunities to profit in either direction.
Have a very good day.
TomL.
little woman
- 17 Sep 2003 09:27
- 6 of 17
Tried to access the site early this morning and couldn't get past the home page!
I'm watching CS. this morning as it dropped further than expected (so what's new!) May pick a few more up. Also ACM surprised how far they have dropped! I think they are near bottom so may pick up a few more today - going to have to keep a close eye on both!
In & out today as I need to tidy up some loose ends which I've been putting off for weeks. Big news: I resigned from my job, so need to decide what I'm going to do after I have worked my notice...... (Last time I took 9 months off work before I started looking again!)
fredbear
- 17 Sep 2003 09:32
- 7 of 17
Just trade for a living. i hear everybodys doing it.. ;)
little woman
- 17 Sep 2003 09:42
- 8 of 17
little woman
- 17 Sep 2003 09:52
- 9 of 17
Crocodile - 17 Sep 2003 10:00 - 10 of 17
Long KGF
but its not going anywhere at the moment
took 3p Lloyds early this morning
A slow day!
little woman
- 17 Sep 2003 10:16
- 11 of 17
I think ACM has hit bottom now, so picked a few up for a rainy day!
little woman
- 17 Sep 2003 11:40
- 12 of 17
fredbear
- 17 Sep 2003 11:44
- 13 of 17
hehe
i know that feeling! Ive managed to turn world markets on a penny with "just gone long" blah blah, then 'ping' goes the stop! ;)
fredbear
- 17 Sep 2003 11:48
- 14 of 17
i know its gone through 4300 and all but theres nicer ways of doing it than via a gap.
ps: probably a good time to get long now ive said that. ;)
ThePlayboy
- 17 Sep 2003 11:58
- 15 of 17
For Wednesday, there may be additional upside to spillover after the open with double top resistance near 1033 possible being retested. However, all short term indicators are overbought and a pullback is favored to occur before the end of the day. Index is still in potential peak territory for the year.
Mr Mohan looking for the mkt to attempt to rally but falter as prices stretch to reach new highs and pull back, sell around 1032/33 and buy around 1018/19 on a lower open and move lower, as always 3.30 pivitol!
Druid2
- 17 Sep 2003 13:07
- 16 of 17
Crocodile - 17 Sep 2003 15:01 - 17 of 17
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