I am wondering is it a good time to buy ISYS now? Since it rise a bit last week.

Market Report by David Shand

"Investors switched on to Invensys yesterday on improved US trading and hopes that disposals will eliminate the automation and control's group's near 2 billion debt mountain.
Already buoyed by rumours of takeover interest from Siemens or US giant GE Invensys shares climbed 2p to 31p as broker Morgan Stanley flagged up the potential upside from the companys restructuring.
The broker, setting a 38p price target with its supportive overweight recommendation, also reckoned Invensys automation customers had shown greater loyalty than was widely believed despite tough trading conditions.
It added: We believe management can turn the group into a debt-free, leaner, earnings-enhancing organisation. Over the next 12 to 24 months ISYS should see a radical improvement in its balance sheet

LONDON (AFX) - Shares in Invensys PLC were higher in morning deals after
Cazenove raised its recommendation to 'buy' from 'hold', dealers said.
The broker's move comes ahead of a first half trading statement from
Invensys, due Oct 13.
"Historically, Invensys' trading updates have been associated with
disappointment. Yet with investor sentiment still in a mindset of economic
recovery, we regard the downside as limited. If the statement is in line with
expectations or better, then this will allow investors to re-focus on disposals
and the share price will rise," Cazenove argued to clients.
It expects overall first half trading conditions at the engineering group to
be little changed year-on-year, albeit better than the second half to March
2003.
Cazenove was not betting on Invensys providing any disposal news with its
trading statement.
"It will require good luck to coincide the trading statement with an
announcement of a disposal; the timing of negotiations is hard to control," it
said.
However, the broker expects the first of the large disposals to be announced
later in the quarter. The most likely candidate would be the Metering division,
valued at 500 mln stg, it said.
Cazenove had a price target range between 28 pence and 40, based on
different valuation scenarios on disposals, liabilities and value of core
businesses.
It recommended clients buy towards the lower end of that range.
JP Morgan was more cautious ahead of Invensys' trading statement, repeating
'underweight' advice.
"Invensys issued a relatively cautious trading statement relating to Q1 at
the AGM in late July. In our view these statements still hold and we do not
expect any negative surprises. At the same time we also think that positive
surprises are unlikely," it told clients.
The broker also argued that the reaction to any management guidance could be
muddied by the wide range of forecasts currently in the market.
However, JP Morgan increased for Invensys estimates to "reflect an
inaccuracy within our forecast for net interest expense including charges for
pensions".
This led the broker to lift its 2004 EPS expectation to a loss of 1.4 pence,
from 1.7.
It also saw break-even for 2005, compared to a loss of 0.4 pence per share
previously.
At 10.28 am, shares in Invensys were up 1-3/4 pence to 32.

Apart from the above there was another buy recomendation issued today ;-)

is it more good news coomign?

Invensys to net 550m with US sale
12 October 2003, Mail on Sunday

ONG-suffering investors at troubled technology company Invensys are about to hear some rare good news with the announcement it has managed to offload a US subsidiary for 550m.




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The company is understood to be putting the finishing touches to an agreement to sell its Invensys Metering Systems business and will use a trading update this week to confirm that it is at an advanced stage of talks with a prospective buyer.



Invensys, which runs a global portfolio of businesses in the production, process management and technology sectors, wants to sell more than half its operations to reduce a 1.6 billion debt mountain and service a 900 million pension deficit. Its metering business will be the biggest sale so far.


The company had planned to refinance its debt in 2005, but progress with its disposals could see that date brought forward.


Danaher Corporation, a metering business based in Washington DC, is believed to be in the running for the company, but sources close to Invensys are not ruling out a venture capitalist*-backed management buyout.


What is clear is that a deal, brokered by Bank of America, is imminent and will bring a welcome-infusion of funds at Invensys-One City insider commented that Invensys seemed to be pulling itself slowly back from the brink.


'There is no doubt that this company came pretty close to having to take the sort of action that Marconi did,' he said.


'But if this deal does go through, then it is perhaps a sign that Invensys is starting to turn the corner. There are still questions to be answered though, most obviously about how the restructured business, which will be tied closely to manufacturing and the rail industry-will fare if the world economy does not pick up.'


Invensys, based in central London, has been linked with a move of headquarters to Boston in America. But this is understood to be unpopular with chief executive Rick Haythornthwaite.


He has told the board members that if they do move to the US, where Invensys makes more than half its sales, he will not go.


In May he was allowed to change the terms of his contract from a year to just one month's notice in anticipation of any move.


Invensys shares rose from 31 1/4p to 34 1/2p last week.

I think it will rise in cooming week.

Was just reading an interesting post on another site that said the broker Cazenova reckoned that for every 100M of disposal the price should rise 3p !

fingers crossed - tried to close out position late friday (e-trade) and keep getting locked-out - the phones were busy and by time my call was answered sesssion closed, so sitting on 12k shares all weekend.

moneyman - is the rise sustainable or just a tick up based on good news ?

t.

Invensys has managed to offload a US subsidiary for 550m, says the Mail on Sunday. It is reported to be putting the finishing touches to an agreement to sell its Invensys Metering Systems business and will use a trading update this week to confirm that it is at an advanced stage of talks with a prospective buyer. Invensys, which runs a global portfolio of businesses in the production, process management and technology sectors, wants to sell more than half its operations to reduce a 1.6 billion debt mountain and service a 900 million pension deficit.

tomorrow news comming.....

LONDON (Reuters) - Invensys (LSE: ISYS.L - news - msgs) says its first-half trading has been in line with expectations and adds that a disposal programme, designed to restore its financial fortunes, is also on track.


Invensys has been hammered by a downturn in spending by telecom and information technology firms and a weak commercial building market. The engineer said in July it was still hard to predict when its markets might recover.

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1059480588955

Should be close if the FT are reporting it.

here is the full ft report for those interested....

Invensys is in talks with two bidders to sell its water metering unit, valued at up to 600m ($1bn), as the former engineering conglomerate nears the end of its three-year disposal programme.


Danaher Corporation, the Washington DC-based industrial group, is vying head-to-head with the management of the water meter business to win control. A deal is expected in the next few days. Invensys had hoped to announce a sale of the division on Tuesday along with its trading statement.

The group, led by Rick Haythornthwaite, chief executive, said its performance in the first half was in line with expectations and sales in its two divisions were slightly ahead of last year.

Analysts appeared disappointed that the company did not update investors on any new disposals.

Harry Philips, analyst at Williams de Bro said: "This is a trading statement that is only just on the right side of being OK."

Another said: "Prior to the trading statement, there was excitement percolating in the market and the share price went up because people thought that disposals were imminent. But there has been no sparkling news." The shares edged up 1/4p to 34p on Tuesday.

Invensys is disposing of non-core units in an attempt to wipe out debt and start afresh as a rail systems and production management company. Its share price has more than trebled since its low of 9p this March. Invensys this year sold Baan, its lossmaking software group, and Teccor, its computer chip programme.

Invensys has net debt of more than 1.6bn, despite raising 1.8bn from disposals last year. In April, along with its second profit warning of the year, the group announced plans for a second round of sales to raise a further 1.8bn over the next two years.

Danaher, which makes domestic, commercial and industrial water and gas meters, as well as providing meter-reading services and solutions, recently said it intended to grow the business at an accelerated rate.

In a message to shareholders, Lawrence Culp, Danaher president and chief executive, said: "Acquisitions that strengthen existing businesses and establish new platforms will be the priority."

Once the water metering business is sold, Invensys will pursue the sale of Hansen Transmissions, a Belgium-based maker of wind turbine gearboxes.