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Trading Thread &Thoughts- Monday 29th September (SFW)     

Crocodile - 28 Sep 2003 11:33

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S&P Futures

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Nikkei -88

Chart

Hang Seng -105

Chart

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7:30am Futures

FTSE -10 Techmark -3 DAX +-10 Dow -7 S&P -1 Nasdaq -2.5
 News Headlines:

Compass Group The world's biggest catering firm said it would hit its financial targets for the year and was confident about the coming fiscal year, despite economic uncertainty. They said like-for-like turnover growth would be at least six percent in the year with like-for-like margins up 20-30 basis points.

mmO2 reported strong customer and average revenue growth through the second quarter, but it expected revenue growth in its core UK market to slow in the second half. Europe's fifth-largest listed mobile phone operator also said it expected full-year capital expenditure to be between five and 10 percent below a previous forecast of 1.3 billion pounds

Severn Trent said in a trading update that underlying pre-tax profit at its Biffa waste division was expected to be around four to eight percent ahead of the first half of last year, excluding the impact of any change to pension valuations. First-half profit at the group's services division was expected to be more than 20 percent higher than a year earlier.

Thus telecoms said it was on course to meet forecasts for turnover and earnings growth in its year ending in March after a strong first-half performance. They also said it was confident of achieving its target for sustainable positive cash flow after interest and capital expenditure in the fourth quarter of the current financial year.

Wolverhampton & Dudley Breweries said that trading for its 51 week period to September 20 was in line with its own expectations. The group which also runs over 1,600 pubs said that good summer weather contributed to satisfactory trading in its second half, but warned of continued pressure from rising employee and regulatory costs.

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United Kingdom Calendar (F)inals (I)nterim 

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United States  (GMT)

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Europe & World (GMT)

Mon 29th Sep

Reporting

Company Updates

Financial Data

Close Brothers (F) PBT 82m exp, Alexon Group (I),

Hardy Underwriting (I), Personal Group (I), White Young Green (F)

Compass Group Trading Statement, HMV Trading Statement mmO2 Trading Statement, SABMiller Trading Statement Scottish Radio Trading Statement, Severn Trent Pre-Close Statement

Biocompatibles (BII). Return of Capital and Consolidation Ex Date. Terms are 25p per share and 11 New Shares for every 13 Ordinary Shares held

00.01 September CBI Pay Settlements, 09.30 August Final M4 Money Supply y/y 09.30 August Net consumer Credit 1.7bn exp, 09.30 September Preliminary M0 Money Supply y/y 7.6% exp. 09.30 2nd Quarter Business Investment q/q, 10.30 September Gfk Consumer Confidence 2.0 exp.

13.30 August Personal Income 0.3% exp. 13.30 August Personal Spending 0.8% exp. 07.00 October German Gfk Consumer Confidence
Good Trading!      david@FTSEDOW.com     www.FTSEDOW.com Bloomberg TV

Pivot Calculator

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Crocodile - 28 Sep 2003 11:34 - 3 of 9

Sunday News 28th September        

Headlines: Italy in grip of massive power cut that have plunged the nation into crisis.

Cars: Sales are on track to top targets of 2.52m this year, says the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, as customer take advantage of cheap finance and free insurance offers.

Euro: City sentiment has swung against the single European currency following Sweden's vote against joining.

Air France: The carrier is set to unveil the terms of an alliance with Dutch peer KLM, potentially paving the way for a 2.5bn merger

British Sky Broadcasting has hired headhunters to find a new chief executive, indicating it is resisting pressure from Rupert Murdoch to appoint his son James, Sunday Telegraph The Safeway's board will tell William Morrison Supermarkets to offer 3.5 billion pounds for the supermarket company, Sunday Times Talisman Energy, Canada's No. 2 oil explorer, is nearing a test project for a North Sea wind farm that could lead to one of the world's largest such ventures, with an estimated cost of 580 million Asda cuts petrol prices A SMALL rise in corporate bond yields and a modest rally in shares is all that is needed to wipe out the multi-billion pound pensions deficit at British firms, according to a prominent financial figure.

Sunday Times

Boots to widen Irish footprint Scottish Radio to broadcast growth Morrison bid for Safeway cleared AIB revises Govett offer in bid to aid liquidation Ofgem in Powergen pricing probe MM02 needs a plan not just a deal Safeway, William Morrison seeks 500m sweetener

Ryanair strikes deal in airport subsidy row BAE UK could make $300bn warplane Abbey banks on fresh start with rebranding Ireland: RBoS refused Conduit 12.5m for UK launch Queens Moat to quit Continent Lloyds TSB Hatchet man tackles Widows 100m crisis

HBOS 100m expansion bid as City Inn moves south

British Energy: The cost of keeping the nuclear generator out of administration is set to reach 100m in administration fees. Queens Moat: The hotelier is in talks for a waiver on its bank covenants and a standstill on interest payments. Ryanair: The budget airline has reached a 'working' agreement with the European Commission on a dispute that threatened its European flights. Scottish & Newcastle: Trevor Hemmings, the leisure entrepreneur who owns Blackpool Tower, is set to enter the auction for S&N's 2.4bn pub estate. Shell: The oil giant is hoping to enter gas and oil projects in Iraq. Virgin: Sir Richard Branson is to set up a company to sell Virgin-branded electronics goods, such as MP3 players and cordless phones, in the US.

Sunday Telegraph

Texas Oil & Gas pays its own boss 200,000 for oil wells BSkyB erects hurdle in James Murdoch's path Supermarkets fear new crackdown on 'bully-boy' tactics Torex to sell retail arm to buy-in team for 62m

Cable & Wireless and IBM bury the hatchet Diamond plots Barclays exit Met's 80m crime-scene profiler to be sold by 3i

Barclays: Investment banking chief Bob Diamond plans to quit the bank should he lose the contest to be next chief executive. Codemasters: The computer games company is drawing up plans for a float expected to value the firm at 100m. Manchester United: The soccer club is set to bag 36m from a new sponsorship deal it's negotiating with Vodafone. Wembley: Sales of corporate boxes and premium seats in the new stadium have already topped 100m.  

Observer

William Morrison Sainsbury fears bid by Green Scottish and Southern Energy Powergen to swoop for Midlands Banks will try to buy Canary Wharf on cheap British Airways Air France-KLM merger threatens BA dominance Trinity Mirror Beckham sale boosts record United profits

Safeway, Sainsbury fears bid by Green BSkyB revolt gathers pace Gold miners to sue Anglo British Energy on the brink

Sunday Mail

Asda to quit fight for Safeway, Path cleared for Morrison offer Iceland facing full fraud probe, Retailer hit by insider dealing claims 'Act now to save pensions'ABI in plea at Labour conference Chelski boss goes shopping Abramovich planning Fulham mall buy Funds fight over Sky succession, Murdoch scheme angers City investors How ex-Equitable bosses cashed in, Court papers reveal 2m fees bonanza Our cynical rivals, by new-look Abbey, Arnold lashes out over 'best buy' ploys EMI turns to City for bid funds, Music giant in fresh tilt at Warner Boxing deal on despite legal row, Sports & Leisure caught in broker clash Freight firms hit back at rail cuts, Fury over watchdog's belt-tightening

Tie Rack sets out new stall, Eighties icon targeting woman Shadow over Boots factories, Cost-cutting retailer mulls pull-out Germans eye stake in BBC books C&W stuck with 300m loss-maker, Bankers scupper management buyout Man U set to score record profits, Shares' two-year peak on takeover buzz 21m hand-out for Alexon investors Bay Trading company in shares buyback City takes its profits on Headlam, Funds unload shares in floors firm Rivals vie for S&N spoils, Pubmaster, Punch in the hunt

Independent

BP and Shell lined up to redevelop Iraq's oilfields  

MoD's 2bn cutbacks strike at the heart of BAE

Scotland on Sunday

Man U results will play second fiddle to takeover talk Why the Murdoch spin machine is in a frenzy over top BSkyB job Old Mutual favourite to land AMP's 1bn UK assets BAE Systems delays aerostructures sale Kane confirms Lloyds' support for Widows

John Wood Group Motherwell Bridge in 30m buy-ou Aberdeen Asset sees bumper return on Xyratex investment British Energy escapes administration RBS reveals its strategy on the funding of Scottish start-ups

Out of running for Scottish & Newcastle

Investor Chronicle

Tips: Buy Provident Financial (PFG) at 671p - Robert Walters (RWA) at 92p - Jennings (JBC) at 206p - Mayborn (MBY) at 162p - Primary Health Properties (PHP) at 215p. Sell Luminar (LMR) at 482p.Company News:Buy Antisoma (ASM) and Glisten (GLI).

Shares Magazine 

Plays of the Week: Buy Hornby (HRN) at 10.20 - Highland Gold Mining (HGM) at 244p - Arena Leisure (ARE) at 36.75p - Parkdean Holidays (PDH) 175p.Tip Updates: Buy Filtronic (FTC) and hold Invox (INX), Caledon Resources (CDN), Telecom Plus (TEP) and Sterling Energy (SEY).Revaluing Tech Shares: Arm Holdings (ARM) - Autonomy (AUTN) - iTouch (ITU) - Superscape (SPS) - TTP Communications (TTC) - ServicePower (SVR) - London Bridge Software (LNB) - Dicom (DCM) - Pilat Media (PGB). News Feature:Marks & Spencer (MKS).

Click the paper name for a link.     david@FTSEDOW.com     www.FTSEDOW.com  

Pivot Calc

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little woman - 28 Sep 2003 14:25 - 4 of 9

Hi all, just dropped before taking my afternoon nap after a exhausting weekend!

Croc - I notice you put Lloyds for div in two weeks, this is the pay date not ex div date. (You did the same with Viridian last week!)

Crocodile - 28 Sep 2003 17:32 - 5 of 9

Thanks LW
Will have a look
D.

ThePlayboy - 29 Sep 2003 07:08 - 6 of 9

morning!
Updated 9/26 for Monday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 9/29
UP Above 9,375
DN Below 9,300

Consolidating
Dow forms tight consolidation at lows.

From prior commentary, "...The formation of a continuation pattern beneath the break point of the trend line indicates that further weakness is likely in the medium term..."
The Dow traded sideways within a very tight range throughout the session today, forming a clear consolidation at the lows of the 15 Minute Chart.

The consolidation implies that further downside movement is likely, since the formation has formed at the lows of the current move. A downside break from the consolidation at 9,300 will likely spark another downmove within the current downtrend.

The consolidation is "rectangular", so an upside break from the consolidation is also possible and could be just as powerful as a downside break. Also, an upside break from the consolidation will cause a break of the upper trend line that has formed across the highs of the current downmove, seen in the15 Minute Chart. Such a break could spark a strong reaction rally within the current downtrend.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a tight consolidation at the lows of the 5 Minute Chart from 9,300 to 9,360. We will watch for a break from this range to gauge strength Monday morning.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we are still Short the Dow from 9,510 and will move our stops down to 9,375 for Monday's market. We will stay Short below 9,300 and will look for Longs above 9,375, with 10 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ trended slightly lower today, while the S&P formed a tight consolidation at the lows. Each continues lower beneath clear upper trend lines, which we will monitor closely Monday. *

Summary

The Dow traded strictly sideways throughout the session today, forming a tight consolidation at the lows of the 15 Minute Chart. Watch for a break from the consolidation to indicate direction Monday. We are still Short the index from 9,510, with stops at 9,375.


MON FTSE PP

R2 4224.3
R1 4190.7
PP 4168.5
S1 4134.9
S2 4112.7

WEEKLY PP

R2 4308.1
R1 4232.6
PP 4189.5
S1 4114
S2 4070.9

Fri close was below S1, only gained 0.4 pts in the auction, close was alos below weekly s2 after a heafty profit taking week, was surprised to see a close below 4161 and due to the bearish week r1 tgt not hit! For next week I,m looking for a few days of strength up to weekly R1 of 4232 and on any continued falls do not expect to see 4100 breached, ftse still below sig line on 60 min chart at 4224 and Lt sig line at 4235! Dj could really do with breaking up through 9350 (61.8% fib retracement level)as I write. IMHO

Crocodile - 29 Sep 2003 07:36 - 7 of 9

Morning all from a sunny France.
Thanks TP

robfr - 12 Jan 2004 10:37 - 8 of 9

this stocks creeping up slowly! What sort of price does anyone think it will get to?? and is it worth hanging on in for the morrissons take over??

RobinReeve - 27 Feb 2004 09:19 - 9 of 9

Has anyone got any thoughts about the likely movements of the stock once Morrisons finally get on board?? The recent upturn in price surely confirms they got a good price for Safeway?
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