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Traders Thread - Thursday 2nd October (NRK)     

Crocodile - 01 Oct 2003 23:22

draw?period=1D&action=draw&startDate=10% draw?period=1D&action=draw&startDate=10%

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fpDJIA.gqplus?511 marketwatch-ss.img?symb=SP500 fpNASDAQ.gqplus?183

S&P Futures

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Nikkei +232

Chart

Hang Seng +296

Chart

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7:30am Futures

FTSE +22 Techmark +5 DAX +23 Dow -6 S&P -1 Nasdaq +1.5
 News Headlines:

US stocks soared to a higher finish Wednesday on bargain hunting after previous heavy losses on the markets.

Northern Rock said it expected annual pre-tax profit for 2003 to come in at the top end of analyst expectations of between 356.2 - 378.7 million pounds. They said it expected house price inflation in the booming British market to ease over the next nine months. The group said in a trading statement that net residential lending was up 41 percent on the year to date and it had new business in the pipeline of over 4.4 billion pounds at September 30.

New Look Group fashion retailer whose founder wants to buy the chain back, said its first half underlying sales were down but profit margins were higher and recent sales stronger. UK sales for the 6 months increased 3.6 percent while like-for-like sales were down 3.6 percent

BP issue a trading statement later on this morning

Ted Baker fashion chain said it made a strong start to its second half with retail sales up 21 percent. Pre-tax profit rose 54 percent to 4.6 million pounds in the 28 weeks to August 9, on turnover up 32 percent to 42 million pounds and the interim dividend was raised 10.3 percent to 3.2 pence.BTG technology development firm said its performance in its first half would be in line with its own expectations, with narrower losses and a significant rise in revenues.The firm, which develops and licenses technologies in healthcare and engineering, said investments in this area would be higher than in the same period last year.

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United Kingdom Calendar (F)inals (I)nterim 

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United States  (GMT)

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Europe & World (GMT)

Thu 2nd Oct

Ted Baker (I) PBT 12.5m exp. Northern Rock Q3 Trading Statement, Malcolm Group (I) AWG Pre-Close Statement Boots Trading Statement

BP Trading Statement

Antofagasta (ANTO). Spin off. Expected Ex Date

09.30 September CIPS Construction Services PMI

13.30 Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 27/09) 395k exp. 15.00 August Factory Orders 0.2% exp.

11.00 August PPI m/m 0.2% exp. 12.45 ECB Interest Rate Announcement

Good Trading!      david@FTSEDOW.com     www.FTSEDOW.com Bloomberg TV

Pivot Calculator

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ThePlayboy - 02 Oct 2003 07:16 - 3 of 12

Updated 10/1 for Thursday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 10/2
UP Current Trend
DN Below 9,230

Rally Off Support
Dow rallies off 9,230 support.

From prior commentary, "...the Dow halted its downmove right at key support at 9,230. If the Dow can continue to hold above this level and get a break through 9,350, we could see a decent rally off support..."
The Dow got the upside break through the top of the channel today at 9,350, which sparked a solid rally off support, seen in the Daily and 15 Minute Charts. The Dow held above the clear 9,230 support level this morning and eventually broke to the upside through the downtrending channel, triggering a 194 point rally to the Close.

The index looks good to continue higher in the medium term, especially if the index can form a continuation pattern at the highs. A higher low or a consolidation at the high is very likely tomorrow. Either pattern will indicate further upside potential for the index.

However, we may begin to see weakness once the 9,600 is hit. This level is the point where the Dow would hit the major lower trend line from underneath, triggering the possible "kiss of death" scenario that we have discussed many times. Watch for a reversal if the index approaches this level Thursday or Friday. Should the index break back below 9,350, look for another test of support at 9,230.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a tight range at the highs of the 1 Minute Chart from 9,450 to 9,475. Watch for a break from this range to indicate short term direction at the Open.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we entered the market Long this morning at 9,359, but were stopped out. We later re-entered the market Long at 9,381, and are still in the market. We will hold stops at the entry (breakeven) for tomorrow's market. We will go Short if 9,230 is broken to the downside. This is a wide range, but we feel strongly about established support at this level (not higher).

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each broke their respective channels to the upside today, which sparked a nice upmove. The S&P was the more stellar of the two, but each now need to form a continuation pattern if further upside is to be seen. *

Summary

The Dow reversed up off the solid 9,230 support level today and broke through the top of the channel today, which triggered a sharp rally to the Close. If the index can hold on to today's gains and form a continuation pattern, further upside is likely.

Crocodile - 02 Oct 2003 07:48 - 4 of 12

Thanks TP
Morning all

Mega Bucks - 02 Oct 2003 07:55 - 5 of 12

morning all and you croc :-)

long arm lgen ctm bby ukx...

hope you all have a good day after last nights rise on the dow it is looking good..

Mega...

Crocodile - 02 Oct 2003 09:34 - 6 of 12

Hi Mega, you look good for a profit there,

Happy Birthday TP!

Only 1 trade today on Logica, Have found it outperforms the FTSE as a % and you can get in early at close to the previous nights close.

LINZIMASON - 02 Oct 2003 10:23 - 7 of 12

Not sure how long to make my ARM. Any news today?

ThePlayboy - 02 Oct 2003 10:46 - 8 of 12

thanks croc

Druid2 - 02 Oct 2003 13:57 - 9 of 12

Afternoon all. Happy birthday TP - hope you have a great trading day on your birthday. Not trading today as leaving for France (Honfleur) in the morning. Hope to have a bottle or two of wine there unless Croc's drunk it all !! Left a few small short positions on as still waiting for a big drop during October. Just hope that my margin can stand it if they go against me. Back in just under a fortnight. Hope trading goes well for all - long or short.

ThePlayboy - 02 Oct 2003 14:17 - 10 of 12

Druid2-Thanks, have a good time, I,m looking to short this rise soon into an OCt fall, safety in numbers:)

jules99 - 02 Oct 2003 14:25 - 11 of 12

Croc,

you and Logica got a thing going on...That's how rumours start...lol...

How long you been dating her...?

well done btw..good call, I went for misys...
sage surprises me some time,,,160-179...all the time...

Jules99.

Crocodile - 02 Oct 2003 15:34 - 12 of 12

Jules Logica is a gem of a trading share for me at the moment
If the market futures are up buy it!
Down sell it, easy peasy :-)
D.
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