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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 6th October (RR.)
Crocodile - 05 Oct 2003 13:56
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Lloyds TSB said on Monday that its plan to concentrate on UK financial services will deliver improved performance by the second half of 2004. It said it is aiming for a minimum total capital ratio of 9 percent and that it does not need to sell businesses to meet that goal. Royal Bank of Scotland said it had agreed to buy Irish rival First Active Plc FTA.I for 887 million euros. The 6.2 euro per share offer for First Active, which runs 173 branches in the Republic of Ireland and 90 branches in Northern Ireland, is a 33 percent premium to Friday's closing price. Scottish and Newcastle said it had sold its UK pubs to the private-equity backed Spirit Amber group for 2.51 billion pounds. Scottish & Southern Energy said it had agreed to buy out its partners in Medway Power Ltd for 89.8 million pounds in cash. Smiths Group British aerospace said it had been picked by Lockheed Martin Aeronautics to supply cable assemblies in a contract potentially worth over $500 million. The contract marks an increase to the firm's work for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter programme.
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Crocodile - 05 Oct 2003 13:56 - 3 of 18
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Headlines Prospect of a bidding war for B&Q will strengthen this week when Kingfisher meet a delegation from Lowe's, the world's second-biggest home improvement retailer. Rolls-Royce Faces Strike Threat over a pensions dispute which the firm says will total 80 million a year. Powergen to buy Midlands Electricity in a deal valued at up to 1.2 billion pounds A warning to the UK housing market that prices could be set to crash 20 per cent over the next 18 months. |
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Aberdeen AssetNVM to exit after 36m merger Norish chief gets warming pay-off Diageo and Eircom offer 36m in advertising deals Granada,Carlton Green and Allen to go in shake-up at merged ITV Powergen to buy Midlands Scottish and Newcastle Karen Jones to become pub superwoman in 2.45bn deal British Airways slashes its short-haul fleet at Gatwick Irish Business Digest Ryanair Holdings Special Report - BP: from hate to love in Russia Waterford Wedgwood bond will need super-high premium Barrett to bow out of Barclays chairman battle Irish Business Digest Alltracel Pharmaceuticals Edinburgh Fund Managers NVM to exit after 36m merger New Look Group Singhs New Look bid unravels Arnotts and top developer to get comfy at Indos Abbey Street HQ Petrel Resources seeking 30m to develop oil licences in Iraq Emap plans new lads mag Granada Time to adjust your set for the new-look ITV Serco Vital Statistics |
Sharewatch: Game Group HBOS Building societies offer 7% interest Crunch time for Barclays over new chief Serco pops its head above the parapet Judgment Day: Should you be buying shares in Sanctuary? Indigo Vision Video group losses BP Siberias hell factories fuel energy empire Business Digest Debenhams British Airways Endgame looms for airlines Tarrants exit from Capital makes waves in radio land Irish Agenda: OReillys bond is his word for beleaguered Wedgwood Carlton Time to adjust your set for the new-look ITV Serco Kevin Beeston's working day Sharewatch: Royal & Sun Alliance Domestic and General Directors' Deals: Warranties boss guarantees his future British Airways Open skies is the key to more deals Man Utd chief rules takeover talk offside Petrel Resources Focus: Oilfields of dreams |
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Slump: poor sales at Marks spark fears for the high street Vodafone Mobile networks launch pre-pay price war Manchester United in row with house broker Merrill Lynch Sainsbury set to reveal further trading shock Orange, mmO2 Mobile networks launch pre-pay price war Rupert Murdoch 'barred from voting' on his son's big Sky job British Airways Eddington maps out strategy to land Iberia |
SkyePharma needs a tonic Burberry Brava, Bravo! Sainsbury Lovely Jubbly!, Tesco triumphant Debenhams' premium price tag Man Utd's hard man Powergen to buy 1.2bn Midlands Electricity Scottish and Newcastle Pub groups set to change hands for 3.6bn |
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| Galen: Two non-executive directors bought shares in the past fortnight and a 28m deal with Barr Laboratories for the rights to market Galen's Loestrin oral contraceptive have boosted prospects. Profits are expected to dip to 111m from 149.4m but it is well managed and has good long term prospects. Buy | |||||
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Granada, Carlton Hewitt to let ITV deal through - with strings attached Rentokil Initial Revealed: boss who thinks he's worth 247 workers WH Smith gives Indy three months BAE Systems MoD may slash Eurofighter project Matalan, Marks & Spencer Group Household names struggle to stay in fashion Singh to raise offer for New Look British Airways American is back in BA's sights |
British Airways Giant of skies will struggle to get airborne BSkyB peer show backfires 2bn attempt to buy Chelsfield is 'theft' fumes City Capital loses Tarrant show City prefers Sky finance chief to Murdoch Junior FSA referees examine Newcastle United Sainsbury falls further behind |
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| Marconi has done rather well lately, entering the FTSE 250 on a share price that has risen 50% in five months to 480p and relisting on the US Nasdaq. Lenders that held most of the company's stock have been selling but blue-chip equity investors like Fidelity and Morley are now buying. | |||||
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AOL Time Warner EMI facing a 1bn fight for Warner British Airways BA boss sees tough times ahead BskyB rivals challenge Murdoch Jnr BT, Carphone Warehouse share tips Cadbury Schweppes, Nestor Packaging hides potential for income Deutsche Bank US firm eyes MyTravel cruises EasyJet sued by pilots in shares row EMI facing a 1bn fight for Warner Galen, Marconi share tips GUS deal may sink as rivals weigh in |
MyTravel US firm eyes MyTravel cruises Northern Rock, Sanctuary Group share tips Private Equity S&N shuts out late pubs bidders Rentokil prospects looking good Rolls-Royce, Tenon Axed workers helping the young Scottish & Newcastle shuts out late pubs bidders Severn Trent Water share tips Wagon Industrial Holdings link-up on car safety systems Marks & Spencer Yoga Girls slicker than the City |
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HSBC UK banks admit to links with Russian gun runner Pressure on Davis as Sainsbury's suffers RSA rights issue falters as hedge funds move in GlaxoSmithKline Drugs giants close to HIV giveaway for Third World LogicaCMG The boss who went through a dot-com disaster and lived to do the deal Coffee Republic chains' turnover set to double |
Sainsbury, Boots The chains that got stuck in the past Granada, Carlton The 10 leading television commercial directors Marks & Spencer, Matalan, JJB Sports Ho, ho, ho! Retailers on festivity alert Carlton, Granada, Barclays The greedy boardroom bastards are fanning flames of discontent |
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Severn Trent. Uncertainty caused by the latest five-year regulatory price review has hit the sector, but ST is doing rather well. |
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Carlton, Granada Merger verdict poses questions for future of SMG Trinity Mirror Journalists on borrowed time UA puts up 20m in merger plan Lloyds to divert top funds into US manager HBOS launches 4m fund Scottish and Southern Energy raises shop profile on the high street |
Spirit poised to enter talks to buy Scottish & Newcastle's pub chain Caledonia Investments director under scrutiny SMG Bank Kerrang! Radio wins licence bid Barclays shares soar as takeover rumour mill moves into overdrive House of Fraser Hunter unveils d2 expansion |
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Northern Rock gave a solid trading statement in which residential lending grew 41% and the lending pipeline is 36% higher than in the previous 12 months. Buy at 723p. |
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Tips: Buy Bellway at 612p - Bespak at 393p - Solitaire at 370p - Birse Group at 16p - Connaught at 343p - Sell WH Smith Group at 371p.Tip Updates: Buy Compass Group and Aquarius Platinum- Independent Media Distribution fairly priced.- Majestic Wine good value.Company Results: Buy Sportech - AG Barr - Smiths Group - Alpha Airports - Sell Johnston Group - BATM - Motion Media |
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Plays of the Week: Buy 4Imprint Group at 82p - WSP at 142.5p - Dickinson Legg at 43p - IBnet at 3.5p.Tip Updates: Buy Clinton Cards, Sell GTL Resources, Hold GX Networks and Ideal Shopping Company Profile:LookersThe Portfolio Review: Buy Telecom Plus - Delta - Johnston Press - Future Network - Intechnology - Rexam - RPS - ICAP - Hiscox - McBride - Polar Capital - Baggeridge Brick - TBI - Honeycombe Leisure - Cobra Biomanufacturing - GW Pharma - Sell Online Travel - Hold EnterpriseAll Consuming Shares: Domino's Pizza - Diageo - Greene King - BSkyB . |
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| Click the paper name for a link. david@FTSEDOW.com www.FTSEDOW.com |
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Mega Bucks
- 05 Oct 2003 15:11
- 4 of 18
Thanks Croc as usual,
long lgen ctm arm cna bby....
looking at cpg rtr has any one any comments on these 2 please...
hope you all have a good week.
Mega...
little woman
- 05 Oct 2003 16:42
- 5 of 18
Interesting chart - it seems the Americans are far more confident in their market than we are in the UK!
hijeff - 05 Oct 2003 20:08 - 6 of 18
ThePlayboy
- 06 Oct 2003 07:16
- 7 of 18
R2 4334
R1 4304
PP 4255.4
S1 4225.4
S2 4176.4
Close was just under R3 after loosing 2.9pts in the auction!
WEEKLY FTSE PP
R2 4417.2
R1 4345.6
PP 4213.8
S1 4142.2
S2 4010.4
Close was above R1 on last weeks weekly pp!
For next week as you know I,m biased to the short side but will try to be objective here!The Dow jones has opened up the highs on the FIB range as it is now above 9513 (61.8%) as has the ftse, so there is a good chance of seeing the highs again, I personally feel we will see as least 4300 which is the lower trendline of the yearly uptrend channel, if broken pos test weekly R1, R2 too far imho! This week we have gone from a too much too soon fall to a too much too soon rally, at least volatility is back in vogue! Ftse has closed about my 60min sig line and my long term sig line so they are still bullish, Rsi not quite overbought! Monday still a bullish day, into Tue will be looking for the profit taking!. I write this as the Dj is at 9623! IMHO
Have a good weekend and thanks for all the Bday wishes this week!
STOCKCHARTS
10/3: Nice sharp rally with an inverted RSI pattern than what is usually shown with price and the RSI. Things got way overbought without a new price high.
I mentioned last week that second waves often retrace most, if not all of the preceeding move.
Especially at major trend changes.
Note that the late day sell-off is a bearish omen because we failed to post a new high for the move.
The bull case is that this is part of another wave up to much higher prices, or perhaps part of the final leg up of a larger upward correction.
The count that fits best with the pattern to date is shown.
Note that this is an excellent agressive short trade here because the cover spot is very close by, and, if this count is correct, the potential decline from these levels is large.
From a risk/reward standpoint, this is as good as it gets. If it rallies you cover, with a small loss, if it declines you catch a major move down..
Conservative sell doesn't happen until we breach the wave 1 low in a fast decline from here.
A rally above 9680 says this is either another leg up, the extent of which can't be determined by the pattern visible on this chart, or this is part of a B/4th wave.
The latter says we are still in a trading range and we decline to re-test 9200 before the final leg of the move up.
Sentiment is as bullish as I've seen it in a while, with no bad 'news' on the horizon as far as anyone can tell.
Updated 10/3 for Monday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 10/6
UP Above 9,600
DN Below 9,500
Continuation
Dow rallies Open, pulls back late in the afternoon.
From prior commentary, "...The index has now formed a tight consolidation at the highs of the 15 Minute Chart from 9,445 to 9,510, which indicates continued strength. An upside break from the consolidation at 9,445 will likely spark a continuation toward the 9,600 level..."
The Dow shot out of the gate and rallied 175 points at the high of the session, seen in the 15 Minute Chart. However, the index gave back half its gains by day's end, closing the session higher by 85 points.
The upside break from the consolidation today led to a sharp rally for the session, but as we warned two days ago, the index was likely to show weakness near the 9,600 area, which it did today.
The index has formed a clear trend line beneath the lows of the recent four-day rally, seen in the 15 Min Chart. A downside break of this line at 9,550 will indicate that a further retracement will occur.
Otherwise, look for the index to hold at the highs within a trading range before direction is decided. An upside break through 9,670 will indicate strength.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow ended the day trending lower in the 1 Minute Chart. The index is forming a possible lower high in this timeframe, which points to a weak Open. Watch 9,560 down, and 9,585 up.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we are still Long the Dow from 9,381 and will move stops up to 9,500 for Monday's market, locking in 119 points on this move. We will stay Long above 9,600 and Shorts below 9,500, with 10 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P each gapped up this morning and moved higher before finally giving out by day's end. Watch gap support Monday. *
Summary
The Dow rallied sharply this morning and continued higher throughout much of the session before giving back gains by day's end. The index continues to trend higher above a clear lower trend line, which we will watch for Monday's trading. A downside break through 9,500 will indicate weakness, with strength implied by moves above 9,600.
Crocodile - 06 Oct 2003 07:29 - 8 of 18
Morning all
Crocodile - 06 Oct 2003 10:42 - 9 of 18
snoball
- 06 Oct 2003 14:34
- 10 of 18
my rtr chart looks like its in a down trend notwithstanding
the spike on Friday.
Resistance at 235, I reckon.
Crocodile - 06 Oct 2003 18:04 - 11 of 18
Another example today of how important it is to view the 2 day intraday
chart!
Really paid for itself today :-)
Mega Bucks
- 06 Oct 2003 19:08
- 12 of 18
i should of made my self clear i am looking to short rtr all my other's are longs....:-)
well spotted least you are on the ball and do your home work...
Mega...
jules99
- 06 Oct 2003 19:46
- 13 of 18
Watched rtr all day...just stayed weak all day...personally sold out friday to use funds for others...
Decided to short sage as Dow should start to run out of steam this week i would expect...though at the moment it's not...
Jules99.
snoball
- 06 Oct 2003 19:52
- 14 of 18
I'll be watching the 40 ma though.
Mega Bucks
- 06 Oct 2003 19:54
- 15 of 18
over the last 6 months rtr has been my best stock this year so far,have played it both ways long and short and made a lot of money on it:-)still have not made the committment yet but looking to go short again...in the morning:-)
hope you are well..snoball you have mam email j99 are you going to activate yours...
Mega...dyor nag etc etc
Crocodile - 06 Oct 2003 20:26 - 16 of 18
By Caroline Merrell
CREST, the UK settlement company, yesterday launched a service to provide figures on short-selling the practice of selling shares not directly held by the investor among the shares of the UKs biggest companies.
The service was established after a regulatory investigation into short-selling by the Financial Services Authority (FSA), the chief City regulator.
Despite pressure to curb short-selling, the FSA decided that greater transparency would suffice. The service will provide details of stock lending of shares in the UKs biggest companies, but will not name the institutions carrying out the lending.
A spokesman for Crest yesterday said that the figures would indicate the levels of short-selling of shares in a particular company, but that the stock-lending figures would also include share trades that could not be defined as short-selling.
The call for a clampdown on short-selling came last year as the UK stock market reached new lows.
Companies were concerned that their shares were being punished unduly by investors who were short-selling in an attempt to profit from the short-term movement of prices.
The new service will cover the companies in the FTSE 350 as well as Irish companies with equivalent market capitalisation. Data will be provided on a daily and monthly basis, five days in arrears.
The service promises to clarify unexplained volatility in shares in the UKs leading companies.
Information is to be provided free for the first three weeks of October.
snoball
- 06 Oct 2003 20:38
- 17 of 18
Can't seem to get it on the MAM charts though.
Crocodile - 06 Oct 2003 21:27 - 18 of 18
Capture it from GNI then put into Corel Draw to add Text and lines. Then upload it to www.ftsedow.com, then post the thread!
phewwwwww
D.
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