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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 27th October (RTR)
Crocodile - 26 Oct 2003 12:04
| Premarket Futures 27th Oct | FTSE +12 | DAX +25 | DOW +8 | S&P -0.9 | Nasdaq -1 |
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Carlton insists its merger with Granada is still on despite the recent forcing out of Carlton founder Michael Green as chairman of the merged firm Canary Wharf: may consider other ways of boosting shareholder returns if it does not receive an acceptable bidAMEC said its joint venture with U.S. engineering firm Fluor was bidding for an Iraqi water and power contract worth up to $1.5 billion.Reuters reported a 10.9 percent fall in core subscription revenues , a touch better than market estimates and its own forecasts.Cadbury said by 2007 it was looking to cut costs by 400 million pounds a year and jobs by 10 percent. They also said trading was more or less in line with expectations. Thet are getting rid of 5500 jobs and closing some factories. It says it hoped to save 400 million pounds a year by 2007 from the plan, which will cost 900 million over the period. |
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Reuters (Q3) PBT 771-779 exp.Cadbury Schweppes (Investor presentation) Chorion Plc Consolidation Ex date 09:30 Aug index of distribution 3m, 0.8% prev. |
American Express, Proctor & Gamble, Intl Paper 15:00 Sep home sales 6.3m exp. 15:00 Sep new homes 1128k exp. |
Schering, Schwarz Pharma, Statoil |
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Crocodile - 26 Oct 2003 12:05 - 3 of 12
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Sunday News Headlines 26th October Another Russian billionaire could take control of a Premiership football team, just months after Chelsea was brought by Roman Abramovich.The Independent on Sunday said Vladmir Potanin, an oil and mining magnate, is planning to buy into London rivals Arsenal. - Sky and Independant Cadbury Schweppes says it will outline a four-year plan for cutting costs and driving growth next week after admitting its cost base is "out of line". Reuters Russia's richest man arrested, ReutersWal-Mart Stores says it will review the status of its 1.1 million U.S. employees and fire any illegal immigrants on the payroll if U.S. law requires it. Canary Wharf will refinance its property portfolio to raise at least 1 billion pounds to return to shareholders if it receives no acceptable bids Police have snatched Russia's richest man, YUKOS oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky, from his jet in Siberia and have hauled him before a Moscow court, charging him with massive fraud and tax evasion. An interest rate rise is looking nearer as the latest figures on the British economy show continuing growth in sales. The economy grew 0.6% in the third quarter of the year, as expected. |
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| SUNDAY TIMES Chelsfield offers funds a stake in buyout Quintain Estate FirstGroup vows to win train deal Wembley to kick off 1bn development AstraZeneca Lancet hit in drugs row BP, Shell Scottish business digest Manchester United How Magnier raced to his fortune Carlton Now City assassin knifes Allen Gresham consortium wins backing of UK bank British Airways Cassani throws a book at men who failed Go British Airways, BAA Ditch Stansted, airline chiefs tell Darling Granada Now City assassin knifes Allen Eircom staff to be offered 120,000 golden goodbye Tesco Scottish business digest |
Sharewatch: Glaxo Smith Kline Paramount Directors' Deals: Restaurant boss serves up a share sale Secrets of the shareholder coup that ousted Carlton's Green Carlton, Granad How ITV's big drama unfolded Bank of Ireland Sharewatch: Airlines still grounded but get ready for take-off Granada, Carlton Its only a matter of time before Allen goes Profile: John Magnie rManchester United Judgment Day: RMC SMG Sharewatch: Prime time for TV British Airways : Airlines still grounded but get ready for take-off Earl prepares to go as her Debenhams dream dies Thousands of Cadbury jobs to go Scotland: Bad views on Indigovision |
| SUNDAY TELEGRAPH Murdoch heads BSkyB shortlist of two Leeds suffers worst annual loss Canary Wharf plans to raise 1bn Carlton, Granada Allen survived 'by pure chance' Centrica in fresh attack on BT |
Granada, Carlton Assassination St Granada, Carlton Bloodlust after Bolton's clean kill BSkyB City comment: Leighton in the wings Granada, Carlton Revolution, what revolution? |
| SHARES in Amec, the diversified engineering and services group, have fallen from 288p to 260p over the past two months. The slide follows a warning in August that lower capital spending by its biggest clients had depressed profits and recently by Jarvis's decision to pull out of rail maintenance. Sentiment in the sector was further hit last week by Network Rail's decision to take the work in-house. But the impact on Amec of that move is likely to be small. Buy. THE value of London-listed miners that are active in Russia has soared over the past year driven by the rising price of gold and a growing view that the country is an attractive place to invest in natural resources. This week a prospectus* is to be published on Trans-Siberian Gold which is due to float on the Alternative Investment Market. It is expected to debut at about 200p. Mining companies are risky but this one could be worth a look. | |
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OBSERVER Chorion hopes Noddy toy deal will ring the right bells Capital pain as Heart attacks Anglo American Winnie joins in lawsuit battle Reuters in rival's sights as revenue slumps Diageo whisky plan turns sour Barclays Barrett's head could yet roll Granada, Carlton Allen has until July to fix ITV BSkyB rebels in fresh attack on execs Leeds in record football loss for second year Amec bids for 1.5bn Iraq contract |
Granada, Carlton City scores direct hit on Green BT seeks fresh supply of oxygen Atkins diet craze eats into Unilever profits Telewest Do the cable firms have enough fibre? Carlton, Granada Shareholders doing the dirty work Greene King Brewing up taste for success BT Broadband: a new world of riches Reuters hits fast forward to catch up with the 'geeks' |
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SUNDAY MAIL 10m cash call by the City elite, Top four heading for AIM Leeds move to top of loss league, Soccer club could be 50m in red Eurolife losers counting the cost, Lavish parties and strip club champers Saga plugs 31m pensions gap, Group ups contributions to 15% Hutchings gears up for comeback, Eye on Bodycote takeover bid 10m float for 'shops in the sky', Opening doors to air travellers |
Leapfrog falls flat in a 'difficult year', Decision on future this year Branson phone deal to unlock 1.5bn, Control could follow German 'peace' BA. Souvenir sales power Concorde profit, Cufflinks, keyrings add up to 25m Wolseley bosses take pay cuts Record profits at Plumb Center firm |
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Carlton is considering pulling out of the planned 4.5bn merger with fellow TV giant Granada after the dramatic coup against its boss, Michael Green. Home loan rates on the way up Buyers may face extra 88 a month |
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INDEPENDENT Granada, Carlton Top ITV job touted two weeks ago BAT defies court over 'confidential' files Brokers who floated Collins Stewart make surprise exit As clocks go back, BP's hour has come BP The Top Brass: The 10 leading figures in the pharmaceutical industry |
Football - Leeds tops the losers' league to the tune of 80m Celltech, GlaxoSmithKline The 10 leading figures in the pharma industry AZN, Powderject The 10 leading figures in the pharma industry |
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SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY Arriva aims to maximise customer benefits Granada Greg Dyke tipped for top job at merged ITV Airline apoplexy as Ryanair boss tells Cassani where to Go Investors keen to see if ICI is close to completing Quest for improvement Forth Ports snub leaves shipping body all at sea Marks & Spencer Group Buyers eye up Safeway pickings Granada, Carlton chief in spotlight after ousting of Carlton boss |
John Wood Group urges PM to reject EU's draft energy policy RBS forecasts global growth to soar in 2004 Heat turned up on Kingston Comms sale Carlton Popularity supports First choice Pubmaster looks to flotation after Punch takeover offer falls well short of 'fair value' BP pumps up the profits but dividend may be hit by weak dollar |
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SUNDAY EXPRESS SHARES in Punch Taverns have doubled from their lowest level but there is still value to be had. It floated last May and had a torrid time trying to explain its business model to the City, but those concerns have been addressed and and it should close the gap on its rival Enterprise Inns. Buy at 332p. THINGS could be looking up for news and data provider Reuters. Most of its revenues come from City banks and newspapers, two sectors that have been in the doldrums for years. But business is beginning to pick up for both sectors and that should help Reuters recover. Buy at 234.5p. NO LONGER just a maker of luxury cookers, Aga Foodservice is now a diversified food equipment business that is well positioned for growth at home and overseas. Yet the group's share price has underperformed the market and the engineering sector in the past year. Buy at 235p. |
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INVESTORS CHRONICLE Tips: Buy Northern Rock (NRK) at 744p, Rugby Estates (RES) at 258p, GB Group (GBG) at 19.5p, Bizspace (BIZ) at 37p, Gibbs & Dandy (GDYO) at 305p. Sell Trinity Mirror (TNI) at 558p.Tip Updates: Buy Northern Recruitment (NRG), Sage (SGE) high enough, Alliance Unichem (AUN) fairly priced.Company News: Sell WH Smith Group (SMWH). |
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SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week: Buy DDD Group (DDD) at 44.5p, Mayflower Corporation (MFW) at 34.5p, Fortune Oil (FTO) at 2.35p, BioProgress (BPRG) at 54.5p, Armour Group (AMR) at 48.5p. Updates: Sell Toad Group (TOA), Zoo Digital (ZOO) (or hold), Croda International (CRDA), Newcastle United (NCU). Interactive TV Shares to Watch: Buy BSkyB (BSY), YooMedia (YOO), Music Choice Europe (MUS), Telewest (TWT), Emap (EMA). |
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little woman
- 26 Oct 2003 22:32
- 4 of 12
As alway a very informative thread. I'm trying to stay out of equities, but finding it very difficult. Something tells me to hold off - but the temptation can be hard............
tyketto
- 27 Oct 2003 00:44
- 5 of 12
Robert Cole in the Times,with the help of Hemscott search engine.
Six co's of at least 4% prospective div yield,
expected to increase earnings by at least 10% in the next year,
interest payments covered at least X4 by earnings,
Div cover X2 by earning and cashflow.
Savilles(property) Brandon Hire(tools)Devro(sausage skins)
Holidaybreak(campsites)James Cropper(paper)Davis Support(serv)
Personally I'm going to track the above,but like yourself, just
clearng those that come into profit.Happy to hold the rest till
the next bounce(hate to have my capital eroded) We'll probably
have to wait for the US Pres election before we get some clear
direction.
mac
ThePlayboy
- 27 Oct 2003 07:13
- 6 of 12
R2 4265.5
R1 4252.1
PP 4235.5
S1 4222.4
S2 4205.8
Close was below Fri PP after loosing .1 in a quiet auction!
WEEEKLY FTSE PP
R2 4441.6
R1 4340
PP 4277
S1 4175
S2 4111.6
Close was below the weekly PP!
DOW FIBS
61.8% 9694
50% 9656
38.2% 9619
If the dow can show some signs of strength tonight (atm 9536) will be looking for some short term gains next week with the ftse testing at least the weekly pp, this ties in with the 4238/275 FIB range it is in, 3yr downtrend also comes in around 4225 level, looking a little oversold atm! Dow has a few gaps to close circa 9650/9700 aswell, cannot see the ftse touching 4300 for a while, if it so 4310/30 max, will be looking to sell the rallies next week! IMHO
Updated 10/24 for Monday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 10/27
UP Above 9,600
DN Below 9,500
Late-Day Rally
Dow holds at 9,500, then rallies to the Close.
From prior commentary, "...The fact that the consolidation has formed at the lows of the recent decline hints at further weakness in the medium term...A break below 9,550 will likely spark another sharp push lower..."
The Dow got the break below 9,550 this morning and trended lower throughout most of the session, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart. However, despite being down by as much as 115 points, the index managed rallied sharply to the Close to ultimately end the day lower by just 31 points.
Since the Dow ended the day with such a sharp rally, we could see the strength spill over to Monday's trading. An upside break through the upper trend line at 9,600, seen in the 15 Minute Chart, could spark an extended move higher due to current strength.
However, the index continues to trade within a bearish expanding range, as seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. A downside break usually occurs from such a pattern, so we will remain cautious until a solid break from the range is seen. A downside break through the bottom of the range at 9,500 will likely lead to another decline.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow ended the day right at the day's resistance level of 9,583, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. Use this level as a fulcrum for Monday's Open; Short below and Long above.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we are still the Short the Dow from 9,641 and will move stops down to 9,600 for Monday's market. We will stay Short below 9,500 and will look to enter Longs above 9,600 Monday, with 10 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ gapped down once again today, but ended the session with a solid rally, as did the S&P. Each index continues to trade within a tight sloping channel, which we will focus on Monday. *
Summary
The Dow ended the day with a sharp rally today despite losing over 100 points earlier in the session. An upside break through 9,600 Monday could extend the late-day rally, while a break below 9,500 will indicate further weakness.
Crocodile - 27 Oct 2003 08:02 - 7 of 12
Thanks TP
Druid2
- 27 Oct 2003 08:26
- 8 of 12
tyketto - will watch those shares mentioned - tks.
little woman
- 27 Oct 2003 09:43
- 9 of 12
stockbunny
- 27 Oct 2003 16:24
- 10 of 12
little woman
- 27 Oct 2003 16:28
- 11 of 12
Too many shares go up on bad news, and down on good!
little woman
- 27 Oct 2003 16:37
- 12 of 12
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