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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 3rd November (SBRY)
Crocodile - 02 Nov 2003 13:29
| Premarket Futures 23rd Oct | FTSE +2 | DAX +2 | DOW +19 | S&P -0.5 | Nasdaq +2 |
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Thus Group telecoms reported a near doubling in first half underlying earnings, in line with expectations, and said it was on track to hit full-year earnings and sales targets. Earnings rose to 20.6 million pounds from 10.9 million one year before and six months turnover climbed by 10 percent to 157.5 million pounds Unilever said it had agreed to sell its Ambrosia and Brown & Polson units as it continues to cut the number of brands to restore profit margins Ebookers Online travel firm made a Q3 profit of 1.3 million pounds against a 0.8 million pounds loss a year earlier and said it had seen strong trading in October. Turnover rose 98 percent to 18.2 million pounds Canary Wharf is now in final talks with Morgan Stanley for a bid worth 255p |
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ebookers (Q3), Ryanair (I), Thus Group (I), SurfControl (I) Pz Cussons (AGM) Manufacturing sector PMI (09:30) CBI monthly distributive trades (11:00) |
Kellogg Q3 15:00 Construction Spending 15:00 ISM Index 17:00 Auto Sales 17:00 Truck Sales |
Dyckerhoff D Q3 HeidelbergCement D |
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Crocodile - 02 Nov 2003 13:30 - 3 of 24
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Headlines 2 November U.S. buy-out firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co is not weighing up a takeover bid for supermarket chain J Sainsbury, a source close to the U.S. firm says, denying a report in a Sunday newspaper. Reuters BSkyB is planning to come to a crucial decision on who will be the pay-TV company's new chief executive on Monday, with Chairman Rupert Murdoch's son James the odds-on favourite. Reuters. Property firm Canary Wharf is planning to enter into exclusive talks with a consortium led by US investment bank Morgan Stanley with a view to recommending a 1.5 billion pound takeover offer |
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SUNDAY TIMES Wembley is facing defeat in Colorado referendum Collins Stewart leads the bidding for Center Parcs Waterford Wedgwood weighs 50m share issue BSkyB board in shake-up AIB plans takeover of Irish insurance firm Debenhams Belinda Earls controversial bonus revealed Business Digest Rolls-Royce Shell indecision casts doubt on Corrib gas plan Ryanair Holdings OReilly defies his age to stay corporate action man Judgment Day: Parthusceva |
Sharewatch: J Smart Marconi Corporation, Backing the future with ICI Trujillo puts some fresh zest into smartphones at Orange Judgment Day: Should you buy shares in Electrocomponents? Media News Billboard: MindShare and McM slug it out for 11m Eircom contract Directors' Deals: Cairn buy fuels takeover speculation Special Report: Is RBSs Fred the Shred too good to be true? Sharewatch, The Big Food Group, Backing the future with ICI Scotland: Aberdeen in legal talks with insurers Is Spurs split just another own goal? |
| Electrical parts group Electrocomponents has seen shares fall in the last three years as the economy has struggled. Investor enthusiasm for the group was reversed in September when it said first half profits would be about 45 million against 46.3m last year. Schroders said investors should avoid the stock, saying the challenge of reversing the downward operating margin trend since 1997 will be tough. | |
| SUNDAY TELEGRAPH Murdoch appointees barred from BSkyB vote Debenhams Earl waives over 300,000 of bonus Canary Wharf braced for last-ditch 1.5bn bid Unilever's Ambrosia sale is in the can Cadbury considers US soft drinks split |
BAT Broughton's BA smokescreen Is Marks running out of steam? A thrilling denouement to BSkyB's boardroom drama Boots chief to stack shelves for Christmas LSE Stock Exchange threat to clearing house merger |
| Investors should keep buying shares in computer games publisher Eidos. The group has developed a number of best-selling formats in the last 12 months that will further reduce its reliance on the Tomb Raider/Lara Croft brand. Against its US peers, Eidos continues to look cheap. | |
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OBSERVER Canary Wharf Reichmann aims to go it alone BSkyB ready to put Murdoch Jr in charge Davis casts shadow over Sainsbury job Carlton, Granada director ready to quit ahead of ITV summit |
Cadbury gets indigestion BP and Blues beware; Putin's on the warpath Leeds United Football's finances: sick as a parrot Jarvis will make 21m windfall gain from Tube |
| It is rather ironic that last week's merger between tobacco group BAT's US business Brown & Williamson and rival RJ Reynolds should have changed the minds of investors choosing to value the group's shares at a discount, while BAT has insisted that litigation in the US or any other country is not a big deal. The merger makes absolutely no difference to BAT's position as far as litigation from smokers is concerned. | |
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SUNDAY MAIL Sainsbury target of US takeover, Predator runs the rule over stores giant Bank lines up shock rate rise, Drastic action to curb spending boom Murdoch crowns his son BSkyB king EMI closing in on 1bn Warner deal Surprise bidder in frame for Panmure, US investment bank eyeing broker |
More Green magic from 'solid' Bhs 'Significant improvement' in profits Allied Irish Bank set to sell Govett, US problems accelerate decision BP fear as Kremlin probes oil moguls, 4.5bn deal with TNK under threat The Vikings are back for more raids, Baugur bids for Oasis, ally targets bank |
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INDEPENDENT Granada, Carlton Kingsmill in picture for top job at merged ITV 'Railtrack' warning by BT boss Bland Royal Bank courts a high-priced Sovereign BSkyB non-execs make last effort to stop Murdoch Jnr |
Boots, BSkyB, Carphone Warehouse As nights draw in, will rates go up? What they need in the BSkyB boardroom is a nice strong cuppa BSkyB Thought you had a heavy workload? We present Allan: portrait of a serial director |
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BT Group He cut a swath through corporate Britain. Now the veteran swordsman has
one last job to do Unilever continues to struggle in a fiercely competitive market. A few weeks ago it lowered its forecast for the second time in four months, saying sales growth would be less than 3% against projections of 5%-6%. But the company remains very profitable with 17% operating margins already exceeding its 16% target. Investec said it is the third time Unilever stock has collapsed since value-based management took root in 1995-6, but each time it has been right to buy and 'this time doesn't look any different'. |
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SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY British Airways unveils global partnerships British Airways Tech firm wins BAE lasers deal Stagecoach on inside track for two rail deals ScottishPower urged to consider break-up Scotch on the rocks over Diageo |
Shareholders blow for Caledonia Investments Scottish Power Energy giant powers towards $1bn US target Barry steps up holding in auctioneer UA Group RBOS closing in on $6bn Sovereign deal |
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SUNDAY EXPRESS Analysts at Evolution believe furniture retailer Courts will report full year pre-tax profits of 30 million against 9.4m last year. The key difference is a likely return to profitability for the UK business after stronger orders. Buy at 297.5p. |
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| The Business Several brokers have issued buy recommendations on airports operator BAA in the past month, saying it is among the best-positioned groups to take advantage of the upturn. Williams de Broe believes continued improvement in traffic figures will boost the company's second half, helped by lower costs and improved retail spending. | |
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INVESTORS CHRONICLE Tips: Buy Vodafone (VOD) at 121p - BTG (BTG) at 416p - Hydro International (HYD) at 121p - Creston (CRE) at 107p - Invox (INX) at 318p - Sell Antofagasta (ANTO) at 937p. Updates: Buy BP (BP) and WPP (WPP) - Sell Dixons Group (DXNS) - Ultimate Leisure (ULG) good value. |
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SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week: Buy Dimension Data (DDT) at 30.75p - Premier Direct (PDR) at 515p - Abbeycrest (ACR) at 80.5p - Berkeley Berry Birch (BBB) at 24.5p.Updates:Buy Country and Metropolitan (CRY) - Intec Telecom Systems (ITL) - Surfcontrol (SRF) - Hold/buy Body Shop International (BOS).Test Tube Hurdles: Buy Oxford Biomedica (OXB) - Acambis (ACM) - Proteome Sciences (PRM) - Neutec Pharma (NTP) - Alizyme (AZM). |
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Melnibone - 02 Nov 2003 17:05 - 4 of 24
Thought I'd say hello for a change instead of just lurking.
The support line on Croc's chart seems to line up with the action last week.
On Monday the 4260/65 area acted as resistance.
On Tues/Weds it acted as support.
As Croc suggests, a long on a successful retest of this area could prove
profitable. I've got S2 at 4261 which would help this level to hold
unless a trend developes.
Anyone agree?
Melnibone
Diego - 02 Nov 2003 20:11 - 5 of 24
Diego
Druid2
- 02 Nov 2003 21:13
- 6 of 24
Crocodile - 02 Nov 2003 21:21 - 7 of 24
Seems about right :-)
And welcome
D,
little woman
- 02 Nov 2003 21:43
- 8 of 24
I like to think it's for Investors who like to trade as well as traders trading!
Melnibone - 02 Nov 2003 22:10 - 9 of 24
more in the future.
A quick thumbnail so as you know not to take too much notice of me.
I've been trading shares for about 3 years now. The first 2 years
were buying and selling through a standard broker and the last year
I've progressed to going short and long using CFD's.
So I'm certainly not any kind of Guru. :-)
Couldn't do very well only being able to go long during a Bear Market
with the standard broker, but things are a lot better now I can choose
to go either short or long and use a trend rather than try and fight it.
Melnibone.
Mega Bucks
- 03 Nov 2003 06:44
- 10 of 24
still long lgen cna gnk fpt and drastic mistake bby which is going 1st thing this morning because of interest rate hike and construction?
hope you all have a great day the weather in hertfordshire is p**s poor but hey i am alive:-)
Mega...
ThePlayboy
- 03 Nov 2003 07:11
- 11 of 24
Note that it is a 3 wave sequence that sub-divides into 5-3-5 up from 9200, with wave C nearly complete.
The pattern now looks to be forming a triangle, which can only be a 4th wave. This says expect another, quick but short rally that either tests or marginally breaks 9850.
The triangle (if that's what this is) would look best with another up/down sequence before the final wave 5.
On that basis, odds favor some sideways action early on monday, followed by a pop and drop.
A pop and drop at the open which fails to take out 9850, and then declines below 9750 says the pattern is complete.
An ideal case is failure to rally above 9850, as that is a bearish non-confirmation of the advance, and makes a much better case that the larger pattern is concluding here as well.
A breach of 9850 allows for more upside, and it would be possible that this is part of a larger 3rd or C wave up.
Technicals are showing some weakness, but not enough to confirm the pattern has completed just yet.
Updated 10/31 for Monday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 11/3
UP Above 9,850
DN Below 9,775
Still Consolidating
Dow continues sideways beneath resistance. Watch tight range Monday.
From prior commentary, "...the Dow has slowed its uptrend right at the 9,850 resistance level. Unless the index can break through this level, we will likely see the Dow change direction and head lower..."
The Dow held beneath the key 9,850 resistance level today, but continued to hold at the highs as the index traded sideways throughout the session, seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts.
The index continues to hold onto the weeks big gains by way of a consolidation at the highs, but the range looks more bearish than bullish at this point. The fact that the index hasn't risen above the key 9,850 resistance level is of concern. Also, the range looks to be taking the shape of a saucer top, which is typically a bearish pattern.
As we mentioned yesterday, if the Dow cannot get an upside break through 9,850, look for the index to reverse trend. A downside break below 9,775 will indicate weakness and a likely downside follow-through.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow held at short term resistance at 9,820 throughout much of the session today. Look for weakness below this level for Monday's Open unless a break through it occurs.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we are still Long the Dow from 9,658 and will pull our stops up to 9,775 for tomorrow's market. We will stay Long above 9,850 and will look to enter Short below 9,775, with 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P each held at their respective highs today, forming clear trading ranges. Watch these ranges closely for Monday's market, as a break from the range will likely dictate direction. *
Summary
The Dow traded sideways the entire session today, and continues to hold beneath the clear and solid 9,850 resistance level. The index must break through this level if further upside is to be seen. Otherwise, a break below 9,775 will signal a change of trend.
MON FTSE PP
R2 4314
R1 4301
PP 4281
S1 4274
S2 4261
close was below Fri pp after loosing 1.3pts in the auction!
WEEKLY FTSE PP
r2 4381
r1 4334
pp 4286
s1 4239
s2 4191
Close was below the weekly PP after challenging the R1!
Crocodile - 03 Nov 2003 07:40 - 12 of 24
Big Thunder storms & hail all night and still going on at the moment here in Northen France.
washlander
- 03 Nov 2003 08:58
- 13 of 24
Melnibone - 03 Nov 2003 09:09 - 14 of 24
Didn't take long for the FTSE to hit R2 and stall.
Back down again now I think.
Melnibone
little woman
- 03 Nov 2003 09:11
- 15 of 24
little woman
- 03 Nov 2003 09:51
- 16 of 24
little woman
- 03 Nov 2003 12:23
- 17 of 24
little woman
- 03 Nov 2003 12:25
- 18 of 24
Melnibone - 03 Nov 2003 12:32 - 19 of 24
the S@P is so near its highs and not yet open for normal
hours trading.
Still, shows the wisdom in not trying to fight a trend, whatever
you think should be happening.
Melnibone
little woman
- 03 Nov 2003 12:36
- 20 of 24
Melnibone - 03 Nov 2003 12:49 - 21 of 24
Keeping an eye on BP. and SHEL.
Starting to diverge.
Usually price differential of 35/40p.
Currently 44p.
May be worth a pairs trade(Short BP. long SHEL)
if it goes up to 48/50p differential.
Melnibone
little woman
- 03 Nov 2003 12:58
- 22 of 24
Thinking of crocs 2 day movement, 2 days up, and then down, 2 days up then down
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