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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 17th November (IMP)
Crocodile - 16 Nov 2003 11:47
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BIG fall if far east stocks and futures Imperial Tobacco the world's fourth biggest tobacco firm, reported a 40 percent rise in annual profits to 898 million pounds for the year to September 30 at the top of analyst forecasts of 867-898 million pounds and said it was well positioned for future growth. They are going to pay a higher dividend.mmO2 mobile phone group made its first operating profit with a strong rise in underlying earnings and a 13 percent increase in customers to 19.2 million, though it forecast tougher competition in the second half. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation rose to 621 million pounds compared with 387 million last year and a range of analysts' forecasts between 544 million and 657 million pounds. Revenue rose 21 percent to 2.68 billion pounds, in line with forecasts. Galen Holdings said it had won approval from U.S. regulators to sell a new version of its Ovcon oral contraceptive pill. JJB Sports said it had sold its TJ Hughes discount clothing stores to the unit's management for 55.8 million pounds in the face of scepticism from investors Majestic Wine reported a 42 percent jump in half-year profits on Monday and said like-for-like UK sales rose 7.5 percent in the six weeks since September 30. Profit rose to 3.96 million pounds in the six months to September 29, from 2.79 million pounds the previous year. Sales grew 21.8 percent to 69.1 million pounds. Chrysalis radio full-year profit soared to 23.9 million pounds from 5.8 million pounds a year earlier, citing increased market share at Heart FM, now London's most popular radio station. Turnover climbed 4.5 percent to 246 million pounds and it expects first-quarter radio revenues to increase 17.5 percent from last year. |
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Alliance Unichem (I), Aviva (I), BurtonWood Brewery (I) Majestic Wine (I), Mice Group (I), mm02 Murray International Trust (I), WPP Group (I), Cambridge Antibody (F) Chrysalis (F), New Diploma (F), Imperial Tobacco (F) MyTravel (Update), TripleArc (Update) |
Toys R Us 1:30 Business Inventories Sep - 0.2% 1:30 NY Empire State Index Nov - 30.0
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E.ON German utility following consolidation of UK power firm Powergen and German gas importer Ruhrgas |
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Crocodile - 16 Nov 2003 11:47 - 3 of 44
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Sunday News Headlines 16th November Millions of consumers face higher gas and electricity bills in the New Year.Powergen announced it is to increase electricity and gas prices for the majority of its six million customers from January 5. This month's interest rate rise by the Bank of England was premature and further hikes could stifle the fragile economic recovery, accountants Ernst and Young have warned. Few investors can spend all day evaluating shares. Yet such a limitation should not prevent decent portfolio returns - The Motley Fool UK |
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| SUNDAY TIMES Sainsbury tests clothes brand Ryanair Holdings Irish Agenda: Being more backward will help going forward, Mr OLeary Vodafone chief to dash hopes for buy-back BT Group Irish Business Digest Revealed: M&S woe as knitwear sales unravel BAA Darling set to pick Stansted runway option Tobacco chief will light up British Airways Mortgage firm in link-up talks with Ryanair Bank of Ireland Revealed: M&S woe as knitwear sales unravel Marks & Spencer Group Sanctuary sets sights on Creole GKN Ireland: Gresham move wins support from Anglo Irish Gresham Hotel Group Bank sets up 150m fund for property Bank of Ireland TV3 attempts to block UTV move to Sky Digital |
Interview: Andrew Davidson: Cadbury boss gets off to a sticky start Judgment Day: Should you buy shares in Games Workshop? Special Report: Ordinary mans triumph at Tesco Vital Statistics - Cadbury Schweppes Working Space - Cadbury Schweppes Todd Stitzer's working day Cadbury Schweppes 'We will deliver this time' Corus Group Sainsbury row turns ugly as Banks demands 15m Leeds look to Ireland for 20m in finance JD Wetherspoon Ireland sends UK pub chain home Auditors censured over Wiggins profits Eircom MindShare tops McM for 11m Eircom contract Tobacco chief will light up British American Tobacco GKN Blair sets sights on American defence |
| SUNDAY TELEGRAPH Stahel wants 27m stake in Acambis to join as chief BSkyB 10m for Ball to not compete for two years Arm Holdings to open R&D in India or China Sainsbury family backs Davis Bush backs Boeing and BAE bid |
Broughton's flight plan for British Airways Shire Pharmaceuticals Stahel wants 27m stake in Acambis to join as chief Sainsbury clan rallies round Davis JJB Sports PPM grabs TJ Hughes Sainsbury threatened with lawsuit |
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OBSERVER British Airways Bush pushes Blair to give 13bn deal to Boeing Sainsbury's investors set for sales woe mmO2 punches up first profit Diageo in showdown over Scotch Reinventing Invensys AGM sketch: BSkyB |
Marks & Spencer Group Top jobs for the girls? Far too few in our lifetime AstraZeneca Top jobs for the girls? Far too few in our lifetime BSkyB When principles mean less than price at Sky Shell Transport Top jobs for the girls? Far too few in our lifetime Marks & Spencer Group Top jobs for the girls? Far too few in our lifetime |
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SUNDAY MAIL Investors' fury over BP pipeline, Threat of revolt shadows 1.8bn deal Davis faces fight at Sainsbury, Group desperate to name new chief Hollinger probe on insider payments, Black battling to keep Telegraph control CBI urges Ministers to boost pensions, Vital Government makes decision Channel 4 boss eyes ITV job, Treves seeking senior role Exit the Dragon over Furse 'snub', Chinese 'must feel very let down' It's all change as trains run on time, Connex shunted into the sidings Fresh controversy for BSkyB's chief, Lawsuit alleges Rawkus music theft EMI bid favourite for Time Warner, D-day looming in 1bn music takeover |
Baugur on brinkof 150m Oasis deal, Fashon outfit set for takeover Weir blocked in move for B&Q top job, Reason behind decision to quit Loan crisis for phones group Three, Low sales could breach 3.2bn deal Property empire clears debt pile, Hall steers firm out of funding crisis New-look Abbey faces 30m setback, Damages claim over 'strangles' Vodafone set to boost dividend, Bumper rise for shareholders Broker Merrill ditches Regus, Rental group 'is too small' Secret dealings: CRC group, Evershed fixes up a good buy |
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INDEPENDENT City lines up Norris to be new Jarvis chairman The Lowdown: He's addicted to profits, not fags Imperial Tobacco |
Paris on the brink as City says it's Jarvis that needs renewing The Week Ahead: The City talks telephone numbers EMI, MM02, GUS |
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SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY Investors look to Japan as Vodafone profits show promise 10m bonanza for Scots who backed Wolfson Devro aims to take control in Czech buyout Royal Bank of Scotland writes off 22m after equity reshape BSkyB Murdoch's men tried to keep me quiet |
Emap plans to head abroad for Heat Ennstone wins 9m order for A92 upgrade Diageo Grants steps up pressure on Cardhu Ryanair faces EC investigation into airport deals |
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INVESTORS CHRONICLE Tips: Buy GKN (GKN) at 288p - Singer & Friedlander (SFL) at 205p - Kewill Systems (KWL) at 58p - Fitzhardinge (FHG) at 112p - Broadcastle (BCST) at 69p - I-Document Systems (IDOX) at 11.5p.Updates: Sell Carpetright (CPR). Buy Invox (INX), Hold Lok'n'Store (LOK), BG (BG) and Cookson (CKSN) are good value.Stocks That Offer Growth: Friends Provident (FP) - Legal & General (LGEN) - Smiths Group (SMIN) - Ben Bailey (BBC) - Gibbs & Dandy (GDYO) - BAA (BAA) - BOC (BOC) - European Motor (EMH) - Rexam (REX).Company Results: Buy BAA (BAA) - Scottish & Southern Energy (SSE) - Aveva (AVV). |
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SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week: Plays of the Week: Buy Rea Holdings (RE) at 232p - Volex Group (VLX) at 156p - Actif Group (ACT) at 8.12p - Oxus Gold (OXS) at 77p - Hot Group (HOT) at 21p. Updates: Hold International Power (IPR), NCipher (NCH) and Ringprop (RPP). |
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stockbunny
- 16 Nov 2003 11:56
- 4 of 44
Had chance to wander round your 'snappy' site - its good!
little woman
- 16 Nov 2003 14:43
- 5 of 44
I posted some info to Fridays thread about BT.A yesterday which I think is important about the ex div date. It is:
BT's Ex div date in 28 Dec. Also the actual interim report also says 28 Dec, not 24 Dec. (If look back, historically it has always been between Christmas & New Year)
Moneyam usually update their "research/company fundamentals" info within a day or two of the anouncements & it's up to date now if you take a look.
Melnibone - 16 Nov 2003 15:54 - 6 of 44
Where did this Sun 28 Dec come from?
I've had a look at the Interim report and all I can
find is:
An interim dividend of 3.20 pence per share will be paid on February 9, 2004 to
shareholders on the register on December 30, 2003.
Does any other company go Ex Dividend on a day the market is closed?
Very puzzling.
Melnibone
ThePlayboy
- 16 Nov 2003 17:53
- 7 of 44
It leaves 2 counts, with the most likely being that today's high was the end of wave c of the ending diagonal wave 5, of the larger wave C.
The main reason is that the highlighted pattern has an overlapping start to wave i, and as a whole it looks like a 3 wave corrective pattern and is the right size given the length and time extent of the rally from 4.
The decline from the high today is a straight drop, with the only problem being that we failed to test 9700.
Either count says the same thing near term - continued decline with the most likely target of 9230 before a significant corrective rally.
If this is correct, then we continue to drop on monday, with this first wave ideally breaching 9500 before completing.
Note that any corrective rallies should be short lived - especially if we complete a 5 wave sequence before 9500.
The only hope for bulls here is that this pattern is part of a larger ABC up for wave 5. It takes a from here below 9500 to invalidate that possiblility.
As for the technical picture, there is a short term divergence with RSI and price that also fits the longer term divergence. Stoch failed to get overbought and has rapidly retreated.
PPO is also showing a long term divergence (at this degree of trend) with price and is threatening a bearish cross back below 0.
Aggressive short is still the play with 9900 as the cover, less aggressive short on breach of 9700 early monday, conservative play needs to see a 5 down/3up on the daily..
ThePlayboy
- 16 Nov 2003 17:54
- 8 of 44
Key DOW Levels for 11/17
UP Above 9,900
DN Below 9,720
Volatile Session
Dow holds at 9,900 resistance, volatile, trends lower.
From prior commentary, "...The index is holding at the center of the expanding range and will likely push higher toward key resistance at 9,900 tomorrow..."
The Dow did indeed make a push toward resistance today and came within eight points of touching the level before getting a sharp reversal, which pushed the index lower the remainder of the session, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart.
Once again, the 9,900 resistance level has held strong. We will likely see continued sideways movement beneath resistance until this level is violated. That is, don't look for the index to continue higher until 9,900 can be solidly broken to the upside.
The index stayed within the boundaries of the expanding range today and will likely continue trending down toward the lower boundary of the range at around the 9,650 level. Watch for a break below 9,740 to indicate such a move. We are in a negative mode, and expect a lower market Monday. The key then will be what happens as we approach the lower boundary of the triangle, at about 9,650.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow has formed a tight range at the lows of the 1 Minute Chart from 9,740 to 9,785. Watch for a break from this range to indicate direction at the Open.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we entered the market Short today at 9,780, but stopped out of the trade at the entry due to the Breakeven Rule just before the Close. We are still out of the market and will watch 9,720 down, and 9,900 up, with 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P each peeked early in the session, followed by a sharp v-top reversal and a subsequent downtrend. Watch support for each index Monday. *
Summary
The solid 9,900 resistance level held again today, sending the index into a decline the rest of the day. Look for a continued push lower within the expanding range Monday. Look for similar behavior within the range boundaries until a solid break occurs.
ThePlayboy
- 16 Nov 2003 17:54
- 9 of 44
R2 4434
R1 4416
PP 4396
S1 4376
S2 4354
Close was on fri R2 after gaining 1.6pts in the auction!
WEEKLY FTSE PP
R2 4395
R1 4435
PP 4375
S1 4336
S2 4276
Close was above the weekly pp!
Ftse still forming this bearish wedge, uptrend to be broken at 4390, and wedge at 4360 with 4420 as an upside target for Monday, bearish wedge invalidated on a close above 4420, short term tgt on brk of wedge 4280, dow also following in same pattern on a 5th wave with a 9930 tgt, brk next week out of the range imho as the range cannot get much tighter!(wriiten Fri) After Fri Dj weak close all about 9700 and 4360 now!
Crocodile - 17 Nov 2003 07:31 - 10 of 44
little woman
- 17 Nov 2003 08:38
- 11 of 44
Melnibone, you're right it is the 30th not 28th - I think I was having a " " moment! (I was going to say blond - but not very PC as I'm not blond!)
Druid2
- 17 Nov 2003 08:39
- 12 of 44
little woman
- 17 Nov 2003 08:54
- 13 of 44
I saw this on STAN - wouldn't it be great to go along! But all the locations are a bit far for a day trip!
Melnibone - 17 Nov 2003 09:15 - 14 of 44
FTSE struggling to hold S2.
LLOY drifting lower, wonder if it will break below 400p?
LLOY has S2 at 401 today.
BT.A trying to hold the old 178p support level.
Bit shy of buying anything here, may get lower prices
if we start to get a correction.
If in doubt I do nothing. I need a plan and a good
reason to take a position.
Melnibone
Melnibone - 17 Nov 2003 09:26 - 15 of 44
Lot of stocks near support levels, wouldn't
take much to get a sell off going if we don't
start turning up soon.
Melnibone
little woman
- 17 Nov 2003 10:20
- 16 of 44
The heat maps are looking interesting this morning.
stockbunny
- 17 Nov 2003 11:20
- 17 of 44
to buy in when the screen shows red, brings out a 'shopohilic' tendancy
in me like nothing else does!! LLOY and MKS very very tempting.....
As to the trips offered by STAN its an interesting idea, offer trips
so far away they look impressive but are too far for anyone to actually
take up...(lol)
little woman
- 17 Nov 2003 12:49
- 18 of 44
ntk98 - 17 Nov 2003 13:24 - 19 of 44
Hope it interesting enough target point for those who are reluctant to join. Only specialised on one of that field even when you could make a Phd on that stuff, you will see your pocket soon empty and u better regret for not staying in writing programs, writing fundamental tips and literature which will be more profitable.
I stress again NEITHER Fundamental NOR technical analysis is right.
ntk98 - 17 Nov 2003 13:33 - 20 of 44
and here is the second attact if anyone want to tell me there is any unbelieveale good sensitive gihly effective trading system, worth zig thousands pound trading exist in this world and have a place to get a rewards, give me three to six months and give me the mini version where every thing is basic no high tech, intelligent chart inside for 10 and give me six months max I xa prove that the bigger, more expensive although contained more sophosticated tech, intelligent would be less succuessfuk then the 10 cheap version.
And here is a low blow, I bet that the so called expert have long time ago a hunch that my hypothese is right, that the whole thing is only circus, but they keep quiet, from the big financial programmer to the one who earn money and respect though some graphs, they all know that thing doesn't work ... but why say so it is more profitable to let folk wanders in the fog around, rathwr tell them the truth.
NEITHER Fundamental NOR technical analysis is right Hocuspocus only
ntk98 - 17 Nov 2003 13:36 - 21 of 44
Buy I would suggest. Only commensence, or what they call in old book contrarian trader tactic, when evryone dug, you better dig there are more worms to find . .. :-) They seem to wait for the result come out of some sort of market, treasurer expert this afternoon. I wonders why waiting what good for? They won't help us, you won't deter them what they already had in mind for their pocket, they won't shed a smallest tear on your lost. Same situation as a weeks ago everyone wait to know interest rate was going to be 0.25 or .5%!!! None of the sell, and waiting sideline was good, rate went up to 0.25 and what has changed?Even .5% market situation doesn't change much to the better. The only thing I find really good at all these bad events, is that I can undeterrently walking around ang get stocks cheep .. oh, me me if I could have a lot more money for investing I would go non-stop on those day around shopping and pray that people will take the chancellor, premier minister talk more seriously and sell more so stock would be cheaper and more time for me to buy.
I don't understand why some investor by the slightest market down movement taking profit and destroy the price level where they later buy back in. Regardless which past which chance thise stock can have ... There is a lot money go in smoke by the practice ... and even on those they with an early sell they still losing because large spread, market open and MM set all ready and wait for first seller, what do you think, wrong to keep?
Crocodile - 17 Nov 2003 13:48 - 22 of 44
The market is looking very fragile at the moment as in the Far East overnight.
There is just a possibility that this could develop into a very fast and sharp sell off so I do not want to be caught on the wrong side of it.
D.
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