Premarket Futures

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S&P +1.6

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U.S. stocks closed off their lows Monday but still in negative territory for the sixth out of seven sessions, as investors continued to take profits and in response to international terrorist attacks over the weekend. Vodafone reported a 19 percent increase in first-half underlying earnings and announced a 2.5 billion pounds share buyback programme. Earnings rose 19 percent to 6.62 billion pounds, compared with 10 analyst forecasts ranging from 6.15 billion to 6.78 billion. The interim dividend rose 20 percent to 0.9535 pence.Burberry posted higher than expected first-half earnings growth and appointed Stacey Cartwright as new chief financial officer to replace Mike Metcalf. The company notched up a 21 percent rise in earnings to 66.9 million pounds, up from 55.1 million last year.EasyJet reported a worse-than-expected 28 percent fall in annual pre-tax profit but said it was cautiously optimistic about its performance this fiscal year. They said its fall in pre-tax profit to 52 million pounds for the year to September 30 reflected the Iraq conflict in the first half, the costs of integrating the acquisition of rival budget carrier Go and other one-off items. Dixons said it had seen no pick up in the pace of sales growth though profit margins were still slightly ahead year-on-year. Some analysts had expected sales growth to have picked up since the September trading update. GWR radio said its first-half profit climbed on strong local advertising, with the improving trends expected to continue in November. The company, which owns Classic FM, said pre-tax profit for the six months to September 30 was 6.4 million pounds from 2.2 million pounds in the year-earlier period. "Group radio advertising revenues were up by 16 percent year on year in October and at this stage we expect that these revenues will be up by 9 percent year on year in November," the company said in a statement.

Calendar: United Kingdom	United States (GMT)	Europe & World (GMT
600 Group (I), Burberry (I), CML Microsystems (I) Detica Group (I), Glotel (I), GWR Group (I) Imagination Technologies (I), Intelek (ITK.L) James Cropper (I), TBI (I) Victoria (I), Vodofone Group (I), Whitehead Mann Group (I) Easyjet (F), Enodis (F), Viridian Group (F) Wigmore Property Investment Trust (F) Alea Group - IPO trading date. Profile Therapeutics (Update), HICP for October RICS Survey for October, Retail Price Index for October	Home Depot Inc. 1:30 Core CPI Oct - 0.1% 1:30 CPI Oct - 0.2%	Air France (Q2) after its merger with KLM Finnair (I) Wednesday Credit Agricole and Swiss insurance firm Zurich report quarterly numbers

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11/17:Continued decline broke the lower trendline and the late day rally has done a 'back-kiss' of it.
Not a complete 5 wave pattern down here yet, and the tentative labels shown say we drop again tomorrow in wave iii of (iii) to much lower levels.
Alternate count is that this is the start of wave (iv) here, and a sloppy sideways day tomorrow would sway things toward that interpretation.
Futures are flat as I type this, so no indication there of anything dramatic.
9500 is the next test, with the 9230 level still the most likely target of this initial leg down.
Stops at 9900 until there's enough pattern to the decline to make a better call.


Updated 11/17 for Tuesday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 11/18
UP Above 9,750
DN Below 9,625

Expanding Range
Dow trends down to lower boundary of range, reverses late in session.

From prior commentary, "...The index stayed within the boundaries of the expanding range today and will likely continue trending down toward the lower boundary of the range at around the 9,650 level..."
The Dow opened the session down and continued lower throughout most of the session, eventually PRECISELY reaching the lower boundary of the expanding range at 9,650, seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. The Dow then began to show strength off the 9,650 level late in the session, and subsequently staged a sharp upmove to the Close, ending the day lower by 62 points.

The Dow held at the lower boundary of the expanding range today, but the Daily Chart shows that the index also held at the major lower trend line that has remained in tact since March of this year. This has been a solid long term trend indicator and the fact that the index didn't stay below the line indicates the possibility for another rally within the trend. An upside break through 9,750 tomorrow will likely spark another move toward key resistance at 9,900.

However, if the index turns back down and breaks the major lower trend line at 9,625, look for a much larger retracement. That is, 9,625 is a very strong fulcrum level, and a break of this level will signal the probability of lower movement ahead.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a tight range at the highs of the 1 Minute Chart from 9,695 to 9,730. Watch for a break from this range to indicate direction tomorrow morning.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we entered the market Short this morning at 9,704 and stayed in the position throughout the session before stopping out at the entry just before the Close due to our Breakeven Rule. We are out of the market and will watch 9,625 down, and 9,750 up, with 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each trended lower throughout the session before staging a late-day rally to the Close. The NASDAQ held at its key lower channel boundary, which will be key in the medium term. *

Summary

The Dow trended lower the entire session, but held at key lower trend lines, which pushed the index higher to the Close. An upside break through 9,750 will further extend the upmove, while a break of 9,625 will indicate an even greater decline is likely to follow.

Morning. Thanks Croc & TP.

Morning all

ntk98

I just read your last post yesterday. I'm afraid the reason I for one, didn't get into a dicsussion over your first posts was I was not sure I understood what you meant. There was too much information to digest and understand.


On another subject - just noticed the "insert" links at the bottom! Croc - looks like moneyam is making it easier for people not to visit your site!!!

Morning all. As a bit of a 'lurker' (usually feel I don't have very much to add) - please could I just say thanks to Croc and ThePlayboy for their work every day in starting this thread up.

Thanks

SP FIBS

1052.8 61.8
1049.4 50
1046.1 38.2

imho tgt for a bounce is the 61.8

JonP ur welcome!

Hi JonP, nice to hear from you.

Some very good news in today on VRD (One of my very long term investements - held over 10 years)

LONDON (AFX) - Viridian Group PLC, Northern Ireland's electricity company, saw profits in the first half surge by 80 pct, largely reflecting contribution from the Huntstown power station.

In the six months to September, the group's pretax profit rose to 53.8 mln stg from 29.8 mln last time.

It raised the interim dividend by 3.5 pct to 9.46 pence.

Viridian Power & Energy contributed 8.7 mln stg in profits in the period, as against 500,000 stg last time, reflecting higher profits from Energia and the fresh first half contribution from the Huntstown plant.

Looks like my div return on VRD by tax year end will be nearly 35% - sure beats a building society!

More good news - this time VOD

LONDON (AFX) - Vodafone Group PLC reported a 26 pct rise in six month profits driven by strong customer growth and raised its cash return to shareholders with a sweetened dividend and share buyback programme.

Profit before tax, goodwill amortisation and exceptional items,

increased by 26 pct to 5.4 billion stg for the six months to Sept 30.

Turnover rose by 13 pct to 16.9 bln stg.

Free cash flow increased by 61 pct to 4.6 billion stg, after the company invested 2.2 billion stg in the period.

The six month dividend was lifted by 20 pct to 0.9535p per share and the company launched a 2.5 billion stg share repurchase programme.

First half proportionate EBITDA before exceptionals was 7.792 bln stg, up from 6.2 bln. The group's worldwide proportionate customer base rose to 125.3 mln at Sept 30.

According to an AFX News poll of four brokers, proportionate EBITDA of 7.4 bln stg was expected. Profit before tax and goodwill amortisation of 5 bln stg was seen.

The company's proportionate customer base was expected to rise to 124 mln at Sept 30, up from 122.7 mln on June 30 - the end of the group's first quarter.

The proportionate count means it includes its share of associates' operations.

Morning all.

Nice pullback in the US was followed through on the
Nikkei.
This has given a positive start on FTSE up to R1.

Not sure how much there is to go today. US will probably
start positive on a follow through but may start the
decline again. If it declines it may do so after the FTSE
closes which would leave the FTSE high and dry and opening
up lower tomorrow.
Bearing this possible scenario in mind, I will be wary of
buying any stocks this afternoon and may look to taking
my profits on BT.A today.

LLOY and MKS are struggling to get away from their support,
even though it is a higher open day.

Melnibone

VOD has managed to get through the 129p resistance.
If it closes above there and the US loses its negativity,
then there is a chance that it will lead the FTSE up to
a close above 4400 later this week.
Vod is a heavy influence on the FTSE, what we need is the
big oil and drug stocks to turn positive and help give the index
a push which will turn sentiment positive.

As usual, all depends on the US.

Melnibone

Melnibone

- I just noticed that moneyam fundamentals on BT.A have 28 DEC (a sunday) as the ex div date - so I wasn't having a " " moment after all!

With the latest results out - I'm a lot more positive about the market in general than I have been.

I live in a village were there are a higher than ave. number of pensioners. They are a lot happier at the moment as they have just received their 200 winter fuel payment (earlier than expected) and are really looking forward to christmas this year as money really makes a big difference in topping up thier pensions, so they can pay their bills and provide a few little extras they normally think twice about!

Hi little woman.

I'm confused on BT.A. If I'm still in them on Ex Divi day
I'll find out. ;-)

Nice to see the pensioners are happy. In general, the mood
in the country isn't that bad. Problem is, the market wants
to take some profit and have a correction. It's trying to find
a reason. That's what is making everyone wary.

Trend is still up and you fight a trend at your peril, but at
resistance levels like these after such a good run-up, I still
feel caution is required.

I would dearly like to see a correction that holds at either
4200 or 4000. I feel that this would give us a good chance
for a Christmas rally and end the year positive.

We don't always get what we want.

Melnibone

EZJ looking a bit sick this morning after results but the future looks promising. Added to my longs at various prices down to 272.5 so now hoping they will gradually increase to the target price of 500 - may take a few years !!!

I posted this chart last week which shows how MKS is a bit of
an oddball when it comes to FTSE stocks.

As you can see in this update, the divergence is still progressing.
If you are thinking of buying in, it is worth looking at this 5 year
chart rather than the usual yearly one.

In march FTSE was at 3300 and MKS was at it's year lows.
FTSE is now above 4300 and MKS is approaching its years lows
again.

If they break, you are looking at sub 250p. Be careful buying
because they look relatively cheap.

Melnibone

I always thought MKS hit bottom in 2000 because they were in really bad shape financially at the time!

Hi Druid2, sorry to hear about your EZJ's.
You asked for an opinion last week and I gave mine.
Doesn't mean that I was right but if this is a long term investment
then why not wait to see how deep the valley is going to be before topping up?
You can always buy again when it goes back up the other side.
If it goes up from here then you've already got some.

As you can see above, there is good support at 250p.
You never know, you might get lucky and buy there instead of
higher levels as you follow it down.

Melnibone

Ref MKS, the shares came back from 2000 due to the recovery story.

Feeling now is that this has ran out of steam.
Knitware is a problem as seen in recent articles.

Results in clothing were due to squeezing suppliers
margins and profits, not sales growth.

Food sales will always be fighting Tesco et al.

Furniture sales? I don't believe the hype.

This is not a bad company, but the market wants growth
or it will rate it as a yield type utility.

Just my own opinion, so doesn't mean that it is right.
The market will show us its view via the chart.

Melnibone

Bears are really getting stuck into LLOY today.
Wonder how far they'll take it down?

Time for a coffee and finish re-laying my living
room carpet.

See you all when the US opens.

Melnibone

Nov 18-Vodafone

Interim results -7 a.m.
Parts 1,2,3,4,5,6.

Nov 17 - Director Shareholding

Off now for the rest of the day until late.....

If I don't drop by late, back at Wed open.