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Lupus Cap tipped in todays (27/11/03) shares mag (LUP)     

gordon geko - 27 Nov 2003 09:41

any views new about this one when investment company now marine company with profits and payin divi and cash in bank talk of new weel know chairmen coming in anyone know a name ???

Gianni - 27 Nov 2003 10:22 - 3 of 103

Hold a lot of these for the Div. + very safe investment.

Never heard about any bid speculation as it won't happen - check out who now owns the Company after old directors ousted and the agreed in place strategy by the institutional shareholders. All main investments have now been sold.

Intention is to return money to shareholders. Last piece of jigsaw is to sell the very high margin/profit generating marines couplings business (Gall Thompson) which have a virtual monopoly in their field with contracts often specifying Gall by name. They are waiting to get the right price for Gall then this Investment Company will become a cash shell and the money returned to shareholders. Most analysts reckon the Company will return about 9-10p net which is reasonable. Meantime overheads have been minimised so no real risk to your investment but this one won't go above 11p unless the price paid for Gall is exceptional.

G

gordon geko - 27 Nov 2003 11:12 - 4 of 103

the full article from shares magazine no mention of return of capital ??An offer for Lupus Capital is likely to be announced before Christmas valuing it close to its current market valuation of 13 million. A well-known corporate figure is expected to become chairman and a major shareholder.

This chap intends to expand Lupus into a leading UK oil industry servicing company, possibly quadrupling its size within a couple of years.

Lupus’ main asset, other than its listing, is the highly successful Gall Thomson company based in Great Yarmouth. It is the world’s leading supplier of marine breakaway couplings and its offshoot Klaw Products supplies quick release couplings to the oil industry.

Stricter environmental legislation means oil companies are increasingly penalised for spills and leakages. They are spending more on anti-leakage devices like GT’s couplings which enable a loading line to part safely and then shut off automatically instead of spilling the oil if the vessel moves off station. GT’s sales are rising by around 15% a year and are expected to total almost 8 million this year and produce operating profits of about 4.5 million.

Current chairman and turnaround expert Konrad Legg was appointed by disgruntled shareholders a year ago. They were fed up with the previous management failing to deal with Lupus’ problems and large overheads.

Legg and his team have sold the six listed investments, slashing debt from 3.5 million and leaving the balance sheet ungeared. The dividend is expected to be maintained at 0.5p a share equating to a juicy yield of 7%.

Profits before tax are expected to total some 1.2 million this year. Since Lupus announced it was in talks to sell the company at the interim stage in late September the shares have risen sharply but have since eased back a tad making it a good buying opportunity.

Shares Summary

The wolves are closing in on this tasty titbit. The Gall Thomson pipeline couplings company is likely to be sold part and parcel with Lupus to form the basis of a new rapidly growing oil services business.

BUSINESS: oil service business that was formerly an investment company

VITAL STATS:
market capitalisation: 12.7 million
historic PE 2002: losses
prospective PE 2003: 9.3
prospective PE 2004: 5
spread: 3.4%
dividend yield: 6.8%





gordon geko - 27 Nov 2003 13:31 - 5 of 103

Is this the reason for the delay in selling off Gall Thomson and "returning the value to the shareholders"? Looks like price heading for double digits ??


This snippet from the guardian last month

Their Market Forces page says that there is "talk that Greg Hutchings, the former boss of conglomerate Tomkins, could be set to take the helm [at Lupus]."

"Lupus would be the perfect vehicle from which to launch his comeback.
Apart from Gall Thomson....Lupus is effectively a shell company whose paper could be used to snap up other undervalued companies."

Gianni - 27 Nov 2003 14:31 - 6 of 103

gg - if Hutchings gets LUP (unlikely) then I'd be out like a shot :-)

Shares magazine research no better than most journos - check out the RNS's when Directors ousted and the declared aims.

gordon geko - 28 Nov 2003 09:10 - 7 of 103

what shares magazine does is introduce new shareholders gets the information
to a wider audience and give the share momentum I not saying its research is
great but for such companies as LUP information is scarce

goldfinger - 28 Nov 2003 09:35 - 8 of 103

Gordon, after reading your research it does look a good one. Going to have a deeper delve into the accounts. Thanks for the leg up.

cheers GF.

gordon geko - 28 Nov 2003 13:01 - 9 of 103

plenty of buyers today yet no hint of a movement looking at the previous results
the final divi was increased by 100% possible this will be done again to release value as generate cash ??

gordon geko - 01 Dec 2003 16:39 - 10 of 103

again many more buyers than sellers yet still not willing to budget upwards ?

cannonball kid - 07 Dec 2003 17:07 - 11 of 103

I have been in and out of these for years at a profit most times.
Reluctant to sell this time.
Know this stock backwards.
For new holders possible to get 10p plus dividend over 24 months which rougly equates 10.3 to 11.2p therefore fom here that is a return of 17% per annum over 2 years and possibly a quicker return than that.

gordon geko - 08 Dec 2003 11:02 - 12 of 103

two camps here those that expect sell of and those that expect to
be turned into bigger group either way downside limited ???

mpw777 - 15 Mar 2006 01:06 - 13 of 103

any up to date news of Lupus and any informed opinion as to what the price will be after suspension ceases ? . the open offer is at 14p per share. will shares open above or below that 14p? . crystal ball owners please promptly respond!!!

grateful appreciation ...particularily for a response from gordon geko

pjstanton - 15 Mar 2006 08:03 - 14 of 103

Read the prospectus and decided not to take up the offer
If the shares were not suspended then we would have some idea of how the market views this deal.
Full listing -> Aim, then maybe later Aim -> Full listing
Totally confused and probably will miss out on a good profit, but just too much uncertainty and not enough information to take the risk.
I hold quite a lot, so even taking up the 1/3 would be quite a payout for me.

Hope that my nerves are unfounded and that they fly on 4th April

regards and good luck

Peter

mpw777 - 15 Mar 2006 16:11 - 15 of 103

pjstanton posting no 14

i think it will suit gary and others to see the shares on aim.......as the value of the shares will not fall into an estate for inheritance tax purposes.

interested that you are not even going to take up your 1 for 3 rights ...which means your shareholding will be diluted. you will not even gain by the usual sale of rights in the market by the company

i intend to take a (mad) gamble on a very substantial basis. if the shares do rise above the 14p then i have an even greater problem in that do i sell?

there will be no hidden asset value in these shares. however the driving forces have substantial holdings ... so it is very much in their interests that the ship sails well.

i have had two profit warnings this week on shares held for many years viz; Northern Foods and Northamber ... lightning cannot surely strike three times.

WATCH THIS SPACE

TRUST YOU ENJOY LIFE IN CANAL LAND ..... in fact you are in the land where LUPUS now seek to make a fortune !!!!!!!!!!!!

pjstanton - 16 Mar 2006 06:55 - 16 of 103

mpw777, Oh canalland is OK'ish, U get used to it.

Interesting to look at the graph and realise that they priced the offer well above the current price at the time of negotiations. They watched the hype in the share price on the first "leak" of information and then priced it accordingly. All a bit like Mr B's govenment don't U think, leak it to the press and see if the public go for it!!
If it was around the 12p mark then I would go for it, but 14p is really too expensive given the information that I have now.
Oh btw last time I bought was at 13p and before that it was 7.75p, so for me if 14p holds, then I'm still well in profit.

Anyway great luck with your gamble

Peter



Apollo - 16 Mar 2006 13:14 - 17 of 103

pjstanton, what is it you don't like about the deal?

Looking at the numbers, 14p looks good value to me. They are adding 10m profit by issuing 378m shares and borrowing 45m. That means EPS will rise from 0.9p to, allowing a good slice for interest payments and tax, to above 1.12p (and probably a fair bit higher). A share price of 14p for that EPS looks very cheap.

Am I missing something?

mpw777 - 16 Mar 2006 19:29 - 18 of 103

can someone explain to me why Lupus was able to divert nearly 7m of company value into a LESOT for the benefit of Gary and his familly. this 7m was a cost to the company in that trading year which resulted in a huge loss for the year which in turn reduced balance sheet values.
gary did subscribe seperately to 2m or so of shares but, of course, he has the value of those shares as an asset. thus for a spend of, say, 2m gary/familly have 9m of assets
the lesop matter was put to the shareholders and approved ....i do not know if that was before or after gary had the shareholding for his 2m
i see that gary's salary is 150,000 which is not mega ...and he really does not have any other directorships. the company states his role with lupus is a full time one. Just as well because after tax gary will not get far free-time-wise on the net of tax amount. if i recall correctly in his previous life gary enjoyed the goodtimes across the world. Fine if the fireplace is not neglected



mpw777 - 16 Mar 2006 19:39 - 19 of 103

pjstanton posting no. 16
you mention the jump up of the share price on announcement of the proposed takeover. is it not the case at the same time lupus intimated quite good trading plus enhanced dividends ???? .. those aspects on their own might well have been sufficient to push up the share price
the results announcement plus the dividend will have been polished to get the new share issue awayat 14p. however as the new share issue is quite substantial to the previous market cap there is simply more money going into the shareholders pot ...in broad terms

what do they say about this in Holland

mpw777 - 19 Mar 2006 18:32 - 20 of 103

pjstanton ......any other comment???
trading is expected to commence again on 4th. april
since the shares were first suspended the market has moved up quite a few % so this may tipple the fresh trading price upwards.
here's hoping ..... as i did make my substantial stake

mpw777 - 20 Mar 2006 19:06 - 21 of 103

any further thoughts/information on this share ?????

mpw777 - 22 Mar 2006 17:35 - 22 of 103

dealings are expected to start on 4th. april 2006
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