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Traders Thread - Tuesday 9th December (HBOS)
Crocodile - 08 Dec 2003 23:21
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US Stocks hit a fresh 18-month high with the DOW ever closer to the key psychological level of 10,000, as blue-chip buying lifted the broader market ahead of the year's last Federal Reserve policy-setting meeting. Media companies say they expect global advertising spending to rise next year due to an improved economy and events such as the Olympics, but that Europe's growth will lag. Manchester United Irish racehorse magnates J.P McManus and John Magnier have raised their holding in to just over 24 percent from 23 percent previously, fuelling bid speculationFirst Choice Holidays beat forecasts with a 20 percent rise to 87.1 million pounds in annual profit on and was confident about this year, despite lagging sales for summer 2004 as customers continue to book holidays late. Greene King regional brewer and pubs group reported a 10 percent rise in its half-year profits and added that trading since the start of its second-half had been encouraging. They posted profits of 38.6 million pounds for the 24 weeks to October 19 compared with a consensus forecast of 38 million pounds. Standard Life mutual insurer reported a 22 percent fall in worldwide new business sales for 2003 on Tuesday but said it was optimistic after demand rose at the end of the year. New business sales fell to 1.42 billion pounds in the year to November 15, 2003 from 1.82 billion pounds the previous year.Severn Trent raised its first half dividend by 2.5 percent on Tuesday, signalling confidence in the upcoming regulatory review of its pricing structure as first half profits topped forecasts. Profit grew to 151.1 million pounds from 131.8 million pounds a year ago with analysts forecasts of 134.5 and 140 million pounds, It also raised its shareholder payout to 17.77 pence, at the top of expectations. PHS Group washroom services company reported a 21 percent rise in first-half to 20.8 million pounds but slightly below forecasts and said it expected more growth in the second half. Halma safety products firm said half-year pre-tax profits rose by 15 percent, to 24.4 million pounds above estimates, and said its outlook was in line with its expectations. |
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First Choice Holidays (F) PBT 83.1m exp. Greene King (I) PBT 38m exp. Victrex (F) PHS Group (I) PBT 21.5m exp, Severn Trent (I), First Technology (I), Grainger Trust (F), Halma (I), ITE (F), Phytopharm (F), HSBC Trading Statement Denistron (DSN) Rights Issue Ex Date. Sub Price is 10p, Terms are 1 for 1 09.30 Oct World trade Balance -2.0bn exp |
Alby (Q3), Analogic (Q3), CostCo (Q3) 15.00 Oct Wholesale Inventories 0.2% exp. 19.50 FOMC Rate Announcement |
Lufthansa Traffic Figures 10.00 Dec German ZEW Economic Sentiment 70.7 exp.
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ThePlayboy
- 09 Dec 2003 07:23
- 3 of 39
Every tenet of contrary investing continues to point to a market badly in need of a correction in bullish sentiment. Yet it's not happening -- at least not yet. And it just hasn't been the best idea to short a market that keeps pushing up to make new highs, except if you're going for the intraday "scalp".
So while it's against my basic principals of contrary position trading to go long with sentiment at such bullish extremes, I also have little appetite to go short while the market stays above 1060. As I've written, the last stage of a bubble or mania -- and I certainly think this qualifies -- can often be the most dramatic in terms of price movement. There's still a decent shot that this market can soar up to the 50% retracement level of the bear market at SPX 1150, and you don't want to cling to bearish positions during such a blow-out.
But personally I'm content to watch this weird show from the sidelines for now, sort of like the "wise old men" did during that bubble blowing back at the tail end of 1999 and the first few months of 2000. And I know what you're thinking, but I just don't think it's possible for people to do what everybody fantasizes can be done; that is, ride up a bubble for all it's worth, and then deftly switch to the short side at precisely the right moment. That's pure fantasy. The human psyche doesn't allow those who buy into a bubble to make such an instantaneous shift. A bubble, by definition, inspires a feeling that it will go on forever, and that's precisely the feeling that's being inspired now.
Crocodile - 09 Dec 2003 07:35 - 4 of 39
Druid2
- 09 Dec 2003 08:49
- 5 of 39
Douggie - 09 Dec 2003 08:51 - 6 of 39
Melnibone - 09 Dec 2003 09:01 - 7 of 39
That post of the view from 21stCentury was good, TP.
Just about sums this situation up. I can relate to the
thoughts and emotions that it refers to.
I'm getting very wary of actually doing anything at the
moment.
Sometimes, the safest course of action is to do nothing.
Melnibone.
ThePlayboy
- 09 Dec 2003 09:08
- 8 of 39
Bias for today is bullish but after the announcements we could see some volatility. Lately, volatility has been very light and ranges continue to be very tight with the 10 day average range under 9 points. The lowest seen in over a decade.
Again, we are seeing these typical December/ Holiday period directional force conflicts and we can just do our best under the circumstances to try and squeeze some points out of this December trading month which is also very light on trading days.
ThePlayboy
- 09 Dec 2003 09:09
- 9 of 39
Melnibone - 09 Dec 2003 09:14 - 10 of 39
The oil price is near the top of OPEC's range.
They earn and report in Dollars and the Dollar is falling.
Yet the share prices keep rising.
What am I missing here?
Melnibone.
little woman
- 09 Dec 2003 09:53
- 11 of 39
Morning all
Melbibone like a lot of UK companies that use a lot of dollars they should fix their dollar price and buy options from the banks to obtain all their dollars at that price for a least a year, so they aren't effected by the flucuations.
Melnibone - 09 Dec 2003 09:53 - 12 of 39
Looks like traders don't fancy a pre-emptive strike
at 4400 without following the DOW to 10,000.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 09 Dec 2003 09:57 - 13 of 39
Bloomberg are reporting that the rise is due to the
first snow storms in the US which has caused a spike
higher in crude.
Seems a bit of a short term view to me, but what do
I know.
Melnibone.
optomistic
- 09 Dec 2003 10:11
- 14 of 39
I'm an novice at this compared to you but luckily I bought BP in this account at &4.05 I see its now breaking R2. Does that now signal theres more to come on the upside, or is it time to trade out?
Rgds
Optomistic
Melnibone - 09 Dec 2003 10:34 - 15 of 39
Hi optomistic,
It's very kind of you to attribute experience to me, but as I've
said before, I'm not a Guru. Your view is just as good as mine and
seeing as it's your money we're talking about I'd say that your view
is more important than mine.
The big picture of BP. doesn't look inspiring as you can see in
the above chart and the 60 Day MA looks like it's about to cross
down across the 200 Day MA.
It all depends if you think the current 8 month trend will continue
in BP. and the FTSE.
If it doesn't, BP. should find support around 400/405p so you'll
have plenty of time to get out with a profit..
If the trend continues then you are looking at 440p.
Depends on your own view and your own timescale.
Melnibone.
optomistic
- 09 Dec 2003 10:43
- 16 of 39
optomistic
- 09 Dec 2003 10:56
- 17 of 39
All info helps. I have just checked out the stock on MACD chart and it looks reasonably promising the MACD 12/26 breaking through its EMA(9) and nudging zero, will have to watch closely. What do you think about technical evaluation? I use it as fundamental info always seems to be available to others before it comes down to the outside world.
Optomistic
packie
- 09 Dec 2003 11:03
- 18 of 39
packie
- 09 Dec 2003 11:06
- 19 of 39
order placed to sell dow if it hits 9995.
jules99
- 09 Dec 2003 11:26
- 20 of 39
Crocodile - 09 Dec 2003 11:28 - 21 of 39
Melnibone - 09 Dec 2003 11:58 - 22 of 39
With regard to technical indicators, I think that in the end
it always comes down to Trend Support and Resistance.
If you can find a technical indicator, like you seem to do
with the MACD, that will help you pre-empt a turn by being
able to interpret it's signals with a high success rate, then
that's all to the good.
You've achieved a good success with BP. with your buy price
at 405p. When the FTSE has basically gone sideways you have
already got around a 5% return.
That's pretty good in my book.
We all have our own methods and risk levels that suit ourselves.
There is no Holy Grail method that will always make a profit.
People trade the markets. People are fickle and can change
sentiment and views in an instant.
How can you train a non-sentient computer to predict the actions
of the sentient players with a 100% success rate?
Croc seems to do OK by having a system that monitors computer
driven trades but I think that even he will admit that it will
only give a higher number of winning positions as opposed to
losing positions, not a 100% success.
That's what it all comes down to. Find a method that makes you more
than you lose. We are all different in this respect.
(Melnibone jumps sheepishly down from soapbox.)
Melnibone.
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