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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 5th January (2004)
Crocodile - 03 Jan 2004 20:12
| Premarket Futures | FTSE -10 | DAX +10 | DOW +42 | S&P +3.4 | Nasdaq +4 |
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The FTSE 100 index is expected to dip following Fridays loss on Wall Street... Europe's largest media advertising buyer Aegis said it was trading in line with expectations and was expecting an improvement in the media marketing environment Vodaphone jut raised to outperform |
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09.30 Dec CIPS Construction PMI |
Auto Sales Dec 5.7M Truck Sales Dec 8.0M 15.00 Nov Construction Spending m/m 0.5% exp. |
D07.00 Nov German Retail Sales m/m 0.2% exp. 11.00 Oct New Industrial Orders 11.00 Dec Flash CPI 2.1% exp. |
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Crocodile - 04 Jan 2004 11:48 - 3 of 35
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European stocks will add to their gains last year, when indexes climbed for the first year in four, as accelerating global economic growth lifts corporate profits, Bloomberg WH Smith to start closing unprofitable branches to cut costs, Crocodile. Full story behind the WH Smith profit warning click here Swann flies into a crisis at WH Smith Citigroup analysts recommended that investors buy shares in Parmalat despite not being able to understand the Italian companys accounts fully and struggling to get its management to explain them. (Sunday Times) BAE Systems, A BOARDROOM row over the future of has exploded into the open with Paolo Scaroni, one of the non-executive directors, removing himself from the board. Boots: Tesco, will tomorrow turn up the competitive heat on Boot's with the launch of a 70m price-cutting campaign. The average price reduction of 8 per cent will affect more than 600 products and will focus on popular health and beauty lines, including baby wipes, toothpaste and medicines. (Telegraph) Borrowing against increases in the value of their homes, known as mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW), rose sharply to a record 13.43 billion pounds in the third quarter of 2003, the Bank of England |
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Marks & Spencer Group, Our stock pickers return to form by beating FTSE 100 Legal & General, Our stock pickers return to form by beating FTSE 100 Enterprise Inns, Our stock pickers return to form by beating FTSE 100 Ryanair Holdings, And Finally ... Predictably, McLaughlin will change his forecast Barclays And Finally ... Predictably, McLaughlin will change his forecast HBOS, Shares tipped to beat property this year Swann flies into a crisis at WH Smith Whatman, Sunday Times staff recommendations Psion, Sunday Times staff recommendations International Power, Sunday Times staff recommendations Sainsbury, Sunday Times staff recommendations Amstrad, Sunday Times staff recommendations Scottish Power, Directors' Deals: Power chief hopes for a share surge HSBC, UK to enjoy 13th year of growth Last man on Bula board promises cash lifeline |
Centrica, Ten shares that are set to soar this year Exel, Ten shares that are set to soar this year Anglo Irish Bank, Ten shares that are set to soar this year United Utilities. Ten shares that are set to soar this year Compass Group, Ten shares that are set to soar this year BT Group, Ten shares that are set to soar this year WPP, Ten shares that are set to soar this year BAA, Ten shares that are set to soar this year Prudential, Ten shares that are set to soar this year The Big Food Group, Come with us, BFG chiefs tell Londis owners IMS Maxims, Fugitive Czech financier exploits Irish passport Royal Bank of Scotland, Shareholders tell Grossart he should quit Kingfisher, Agenda: William Lewis: My 13 predictions could be unlucky for some BAE Systems, Agenda: William Lewis: My 13 predictions could be unlucky for some Whitbread , Agenda: William Lewis: My 13 predictions could be unlucky for some Wolfson Microelectronics, deal whets appetite for flotations WH Smith to cut Hodson payout |
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Icap, Market miscellany: Dixons, Market miscellany: Invensys. Market miscellany: WH Smith City comments Enterprise Inns, Market miscellany: Tesco, Market miscellany: Ryanair, Market miscellany: Abbey, National Market miscellany: HBOS, UK pay consultants splurge WH Smith 'There are no quick fixes' Sainsbury, Market miscellany Anglo American, Market miscellany Tesco, Headache for Boots The Big Food Group, Gloves off in Londis fight |
British Airways, City comment: Sour milk Amersham, Market miscellany: Canary Wharf, Market miscellany Hanson Market miscellany Unilever, Market miscellany Legal & General, UK pay consultants splurge Anglo Irish Bank, Market miscellany GKN, Market miscellany: British Airways, Market miscellany: Next, Market miscellany: BAE Systems, UK pay consultants splurge Cable and Wireless, City comments Royal & SunAlliance, Market miscellany British Airways, Savings plans for BA |
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British Airways, is to cut costs by a further 500m a year. They will present their business strategy at the end of this month which will involve further reductions in BA's 45,000 headcount Scottish Power's strategy to develop its UK and US businesses and cut costs appears to be paying off. The shares, worth 370p, should have further to go. |
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GlaxoSmithKline, Bosses who must deliver Vodafone, Bosses who must deliver Telecom Plus Wood-Smith wins double by banking on Anglo Irish Granada, Bosses who must deliver BAE Systems, Bosses who must deliver BP Bosses who must deliver Abbey National, With-profits bonuses to fall again despite share recovery American DIY giant eyes 8bn Kingfisher takeover |
Sainsbury, Bosses who must deliver Redrow, Wood-Smith wins double by banking on Anglo Irish BSkyB Bosses who must deliver National Grid Transco Wood-Smith wins double by banking on Anglo Irish Carlton Bosses who must deliver Lloyds TSB Bosses who must deliver EMAP, Zoo hunt for young bucks with cash Rival bidders to lay siege to House of Fraser |
| National Grid Transco endured a torrid time last year, but remains a high quality, cash generative business, yielding almost 5% with dividend* growth of 7.7% in the next two years. The shares are cheap and long overdue for a return to favour. | |
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WH Smith warns as cuts backfire, Swift exit for managing director Recovery confidence sky-high, Big boost for manufacturing jobs Shoppers in 11bn card spree, Plastic spending hits a new high Shake-up at BSkyB to silence the critics, cull of non-execs Banks flout ban in call centre exodus, Loophole allows details to be exported Pay bonanza for Wolves pub bosses, Average 2003 salary rise was 25% Fears for Grant Thornton over Parmalat, Accountant bids to quell fears |
Shamed Aberdeen pays advisers 11m, Bonanza despite split trust scandal BCCI: Was Bank afraid of 'racist' tag?, Watchdog faces 1bn court fight Londis is buying beans from Tesco, Chain admits suppliers too expensive MyTravel rapped over 40 flights, Tour operator 'misleading customers' Investor alarm at house builder Bellway, Shareholder revolt in the pipeline Claims Direct payout fight nears end, 'Vindictive liar v bullying litigant' Yell sting snares directory pirate, False entries snare thief Datapride |
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HSBC, The week ahead: A less-than-gentle return to work Cable and Wireless, Space tax threatens government broadband plan Ryanair Holdings, SAS takes off on the low-budget vapour trail |
Marconi, Space tax threatens government broadband plan Wembley developer closes door on poorer residents BT Group, Space tax threatens government broadband plan The Big Food Group, Londis shareholders wooed with letters from Iceland |
| Support services group Jarvis has faced a lot of flak over the Potters Bar derailment and problems with some school PFI schemes. The firm's shares have fallen 46%, but traders have overreacted to the bad news. New chairman Steve Norris has a decent business brain and could steer the group into calmer waters. If he succeeds, Jarvis might be judged on its financial performance in 2004. First half pre-tax profits rose 77% to 33.7 million and at 206p, look cheap. | |
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HSBC, China's star is steadily rising Royal Bank of Scotland, City wakes up to 2004 with a little retail therapy |
Stagecoach Group, A share in rising fortunes SMG, Scots directors back market to keep rising Stagecoach Group, Scots directors back market to keep rising |
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Business on Sunday Investors should focus on good quality companies that look undervalued on a two year view and relative to long term average multiples. The media sector offers several candidates - VNU, Reed Elsevier, Wolters Kluwer and EMI - to name a few. Other sectors that look good value are life insurers, which should do well in a rising market, and oils. Attractive companies include Aviva, Corus, Cable & Wireless, ING, TotalElf, Adidas and Nestle. For those not keen on stock-picking, an index tracking* fund should be just the ticket. |
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Sunday Express Of Lehman Brothers' 10 stocks to follow in 2004, Royal Bank of Scotland is one of the most compelling. The broker believes the bank will be able to sustain a 10% growth rate throughout this year on the basis of strong income and control of costs and bad debts. In the first half of 2003, RBS grew revenues by 10% against the sector's average 7%. The group also has strong free cashflow, expected to rise to 1 billion this year, that it could use for share buybacks or acquisitions. Buy at 1644p. |
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INVESTORS CHRONICLE No copy for this week |
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SHARES MAGAZINE No copy for this week |
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SUNDAY Headlines Sunday 4th January 2004|
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Melnibone - 04 Jan 2004 17:46 - 4 of 35
Just working my FTSE levels out for tomorrow.
Even if the uptrend continues,we are due a swing low
at least this week.
We haven't had one since the middle of December
at 4312.
Since the last red candle on the 16Dec at 4329,
we have had a succession of higher/equal highs and
higher/equal lows on light volume.
Since the volume dropped in Xmas week, I would say that
a lot of folk stopped trading at approx 4400.
This would be my initial target for any correction to enable
traders that got left behind to rejoin the trend without
buying in higher and missing out on 100 points.
4400 is also a round figure support level.
Have a look at the following 3 month chart to check
out my views. We may go lower and reverse the trend
but I would prefer to see a lower swing low before
going heavily short.
Melnibone.
daviddavid - 04 Jan 2004 18:00 - 5 of 35
little woman
- 04 Jan 2004 21:57
- 6 of 35
Munnie - 04 Jan 2004 22:01 - 7 of 35
(Sunday Mail exists in Scotland, maybe unknown in your land ?)
Many must be confused, so maybe you should correct it...
before they sue you ;o)
ThePlayboy
- 05 Jan 2004 07:15
- 8 of 35
R2 4543
R1 4527
PP 4502
S1 4485
S2 4248
Close was above Fri r2 after gaining 1.5pts in the auction!
WEEKLY FTSE PP
R2 4572
R1 4541
PP 4487
S1 4456
S2 4402
2 day ftse chart targeteting 4540 for pos a bullish Monday, brk of uptrend at 4500! (edit-gap thru TL on open)
Pos of some weakness next week imho due to very over bought levels!
ThePlayboy
- 05 Jan 2004 07:15
- 9 of 35
Key DOW Levels for 1/5
UP Above 10,450
DN Below 10,375
Giant Reversal
Dow opens session higher, reverses to end day lower.
From prior commentary, "...The fact that the index continues to hold above 10,400 and has formed a bullish consolidation hints at further upside movement...while a break below 10,400 will mark weakness for Friday's market..."
The Dow began 2004 on a solid note, as the index raced out to an 85 point gain early in the session. However, the index stalled at the highs and eventually unleashed a sharp reversal to the downside, resulting in a 140 point swing off the highs of the session, seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts.
Moreover, the reversal caused a downside break of the lower trend line of the major upward-sloping channel that has formed throughout the better part of December, seen in the 60 Minute Chart. The downside break at 10,440 implies a likely retracement in the medium term, which is quite overdue given the recent rise in the market.
Look for the index to begin trending lower in the medium term, especially if the Dow continues to hold beneath 10,450. Otherwise, an upside break through 10,450 will likely mark another move higher toward recent highs, forming a wide trading range at the highs of the current upmove.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow may be forming a lower high beneath 10,425, seen in the 5 Minute Chart, which implies weakness Monday morning. A break below 10,385 will indicate a likely push lower for Monday's Open.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we stopped out of Longs late in the session at 10,400 today, giving us a solid gain of 210 points for our prior trade. We entered the Dow Short at 10,400 today, but stopped out with a 20 point loss. We are out of the market and will watch 10,375 down, and 10,450 up, with 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P sold off the day's highs today, completing a sharp reversal for the day. Each index got a downside break of its lower channel boundary, which implies further weakness tomorrow. Continue to watch the channels. *
Summary
The Dow began the session sharp, as the index pushed higher at the Open. However, a solid reversal brought the index lower to the Close, which ended up losing 47 points for the session. Given that the lower trend line of the major channel has been violated, further downside movement is likely in the medium term, especially if the Dow keeps below 10,450.
Crocodile - 05 Jan 2004 08:00 - 10 of 35
ThePlayboy
- 05 Jan 2004 08:10
- 11 of 35
Druid2
- 05 Jan 2004 08:23
- 12 of 35
little woman
- 05 Jan 2004 08:25
- 13 of 35
Douggie - 05 Jan 2004 09:01 - 14 of 35
little woman
- 05 Jan 2004 09:26
- 15 of 35
little woman
- 05 Jan 2004 09:30
- 16 of 35
vasey
- 05 Jan 2004 09:41
- 17 of 35
little woman
- 05 Jan 2004 10:07
- 18 of 35
little woman
- 05 Jan 2004 10:09
- 19 of 35
Melnibone - 05 Jan 2004 11:39 - 20 of 35
not traded yet today, have been MOT'ing one of our cars.
All sorted and passed. :-)
Having a struggle to stop myself going against the trend
and shorting at the moment.
I would prefer a higher swing low and go long, staying with
the trend.
Been watching GSK as a possible long if we retrace a bit, but I
think that there may be a possibility of a head and shoulders
forming over the past 3 months.
Neckline at 1250 and shoulders at 1300.
Anyone got a view?
Melnibone.
little woman
- 05 Jan 2004 11:48
- 21 of 35
Fundamentalist
- 05 Jan 2004 11:50
- 22 of 35
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