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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 12th January (DXNS)
Crocodile - 11 Jan 2004 12:09
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| London Traders Day 29th January - Traders Room Investors Room | |||
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Addeco Europe's leading employment agency delays 2003 results due to 'accounting issues' J Sainsbury said its underlying UK sales growth was just 0.1 percent in its third quarter as major investment in systems and distribution centres disrupted sales. The performance of the UK's third biggest supermarket chain by market share is likely to fall well short of its rivals such as William Morrison which reported a 10.2 percent growth in the last six weeks. Sainsbury suffered a 0.2 percent drop in like-for-like sales in the second quarter, and analysts had hoped sales would rise by as much as 1.2 percent this time. Davis has also conceded that the retailer will need to cut prices in the summer to keep up with low cost rivals such as Tesco, second-ranked Asda WMT.N and Morrison. Standard Life says its in talks with the FSA ??? Pace Micro said it swung to a first-half pre-tax profit from a loss a year earlier, as it shipped more digital TV set-top boxes in Asia Pacific and continental Europe. They said profit for the 26 weeks to November 29 totalled 1.1 million pounds from a loss of 15.9 million pounds a year Ted Baker fashion chain said sales for the Christmas trading period were 23.7 percent up on the previous year and retail gross margins were in line with those achieved last year. The firm added it remained confident of a positive outcome for the full year. SIG Plc Europe's biggest distributor of insulation products said it expected to post 2003 profits ahead of market expectations, on the back of record sales. "Record sales achieved in excess of 1.26 billion pounds an increase of nine percent on prior year," it added. Photo-Me International photo-booth firm reported an eleven-fold rise in first-half profits on Monday and said results for 2003/04 would beat market forecasts. TBI Uk airport operator said the number of passengers passing through its four European airports rose 16.2 percent in the third quarter of its financial year. It has recently attracted bid interest from Germany's biggest building firm Hochtief Mentmore storage services firm said it had received a number of other approaches after it said last month it had received one bid approach. |
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Pace Micro (I), Photo-Me International (I) Sainsbury Trading Update, SIG Trading Update 00.01 CBI Financial Services Survey 09.30 Dec PPI Input m/m 0.1% exp. 09.30 Dec PPI Output m/m 0.1% exp. 09.30 Nov ODPM House Prices y/y |
Magic Software (Q4) |
Lufthansa (Traffic), SAS (Traffic) 11.00 Nov German Industrial Production m/m 0.6% exp. |
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Crocodile - 11 Jan 2004 12:11 - 3 of 29
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Shell OUTRAGED investors in were questioning the future of chairman Sir Philip Watts last night, after the company admitted it had overstated its proven oil and gas reserves by a colossal 3.9 billion barrels, or 20 per cent of its global total. Profits 'blip' shakes investors: Although company profit warnings hit an all-time low last year, the outlook is uncertain after a sharp rise in the last quarter, according to accountants Ernst & Young. The reversal is being blamed on the recent rise in interest rates and a poor Christmas for some retailers, notably WH Smith and Poundstretcher's owner Brown & Jackson. Quoted companies issued 210 alerts during 2003, a 40% fall on the previous year, But the final quarter produced warnings from 52 companies, a 37% rise on the third quarter. |
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| SUNDAY TIMES Judgment Day: Should you buy shares in Northern Foods? Ultimatum for Shell chief after oil reserves bombshell Gresham bidders set to walk away Scaronis letters of concern about BAE Battle for control of BAE hots up Abbey PLC Irish Business Digest Boots slashes 1,000 jobs as retailers suffer Irish Life & Permanent raises 720m to feed mortgage demand Minmet digs for spin-off profits Noe to withdraw bid for Derwent Valley |
Focus: A broken Shell Transport Directors' Deals: Souter strengthens hold on Stagecoach Reed Elsevier Special Report: Has Reeds Mr 10% lost his golden touch? John Wood Group Sharewatch: Oil giant slumps Sharewatch: Dixons Shareholders can no longer be sure of Shell Abbey National How to invest in shares with no risk Sharewatch: Dixons Tesco opens its first Irish convenience store Judgment Day: Should you buy shares in Paddy Power? |
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| Dixons Many of the issues that held electronic retailer Dixons back last year, such as the investigation into extended warranties, have been resolved. At 141.75p the shares have traded sideways for much of the past six months. A good showing on Wednesday, when the company reports on Christmas trading, could spark a re-rating. | ||
| SUNDAY TELEGRAPH Boots to axe 1,000 jobs M&S sales slump Compass Group Food industry told to 'shape up' BAE sets sights on Parker Alizyme partner search |
Medicine for Boots City Centre Restaurants, Jackson asks the right questions BAE will be steered by Parker if the Higgs police allow it Ask Central Jackson asks the right questions One week for Leeds United |
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M&S sales slump, Clothing sales have plunged over the past seven weeks at Marks & Spencer, the leading high street retailer will admit this week. Supermarket group Morrisons expects to complete its acquisition of Safeway by March. Broker Numis thinks the move could create a group that can challenge Asda and Sainsbury's for the number two slot in the UK. Morrisons should continue to outperform* its competitors. Buy. Shares in transport group Stagecoach have recovered strongly from this time last year when the company was forced to write-off 500m on its US operations. Stagecoach has now successfully restructured in the US and is trading well in the UK. The shares are unlikely to be spectacular performers, but they should have further to go. Buy. |
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OBSERVER Dixons 'to axe half its stores' Emap radio boss in VC bid plans Transco's Parker leads race to head BAE BSkyB Murdoch's grand vision in compact race Pressure grows on Shell chairman to quit |
Carlton Bring ITV the head of Lord MacLaurin Shell Transport Sir Philip ducks out Eurotunnel chases Continental freight Granada Bring ITV the head of Lord MacLaurin |
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| Dixons, Retail analyst has estimated that it is making little or no profit and It claims that half of the group's 329 High Street stores are likely to be axed as part of a restructuring aimed at cutting costs and boosting profits. | ||
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MAIL ON SUNDAY 1,000 jobs go in Boots shake-up UBS in talks on a 150m bid for broker Laing & Cruickshank Invesco joins the Parmalat battle 2.7bn lawsuit over the collapse Orange Mobile giant rocked as bosses clash England kit goes on sale at Tesco Goldman secretary goes on trial Allegations over missing 4.3m |
Banks back 1,100 mile BP pipeline, Oil group is confident it will secure loans Standard boss faces survival battle Venture groups tune in to Emap 'Willing buyers for radio assets' Thresher joins Londis queue Move is part of a new sales strategy Seymour set for Civica flotation, 50m price-tag for IT outfit |
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BOOTS is poised to axe up to 1,000 head office jobs in a shake-up. The cull, which follows massive job cuts last year, will affect almost 15% of the 7,000 staff at Boots' headquarters in Nottingham. Confirmation is expected this week when the company updates investors about Christmas trading. Analysts forecast a lacklustre statement |
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INDEPENDENT WH Smith Disgruntled shareholders plot to oust Handover Leeds United Administration looms at Leeds as bad results put off rescuers The sun set on Emap when its brightest stars slipped through its fingers |
Dixons , The Week Ahead: City fears Britain's mean high streets M&S The Week Ahead: City fears Britain's mean high streets GUS The Week Ahead: City fears Britain's mean high streets |
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SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY Worries well up among shareholders as Shell downgrades its reserves Abbey denial goes on while Standard Life tries to talk its way out of a crisis Crawford set to reunite with former agency chairman by joining John Wood Group |
Strong interest in British Energy HQ Royal Bank of Scotland Concession in fight to keep Grossart on board of RBS Radio sector shakeup expected after Emap chief quits |
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SUNDAY EXPRESS Reuters is set to release positive first-quarter revenue guidance before its 2003 full-year results appear on 17 February. Analysts believe revenues are showing signs of stabilising - the cancellation of contracts for company's terminals in December 2003 is running at a much lower level than for December 2002. Buy at 261.5p. Vodafone The 22.5% of the Japanese market gained by Telecoms group Vodafone in December should reassure investors this part of the business is improving after a fall-off in sales. It follows Vodafone's best month of 3G net* adds at 18,500. Buy at 148.25p Misys The biggest problems at IT conglomerate Misys were in its banking and securities division, but broker JP Morgan thinks the company's recovery is deferred rather than derailed. It is looking at full-year pre-tax profits of 54m. Buy at 216p. Man Broker Teather & Greenwood says hedge fund manager* Man will do well this year, albeit not as well as last year. The weakness of the US dollar will help sales to US investors, giving predicted full-year pre-tax profits of 441m compared with 348.1m in 2003. Buy at 1552p. |
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INVESTORS CHRONICLE Hot Tips of the Year: Buy - BAA (BAA), Bellway (BWY), Cobra Bio (CBF), Freeport (FPR), GUS (GUS), Kewill (KWL), Mayborn (MBY), Northern Rock (NRK), Protherics (PTI) and Stream (SEA). |
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SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week: Buy - Tadpole (TAD), 3DM Worldwide (TDM), Lloyds TSB (LLOY), Celsis (CEL), Cobra (CBF).Brokers Tips: Buy - API (API), Acambis (ACM), BAA (BAA), Redrow (RDW), Kesa (KESA), Stanley Gibbons (SGI), UBM (UBM), Rank (RNK), Xansa (XAN) and Davis Services (DVSG).Sell - Gallaher (GLH), Rio Tinto (RIO), Jardine Lloyd Thompson (JLT), Lloyds (LLOY), Michael Page (MPI), Northern Foods (NFDS), WH Smith (SMWH), St. Ives (SIV), RAC (RAC) and Matalan (MTN).Tips: Buy - Consolidated Minerals (CNM), Mayflower (MFW) and Kewill (KWL). Sell - Pearson (PSON), Geest (GET) and Dixons (DXNS). |
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ThePlayboy
- 11 Jan 2004 12:19
- 4 of 29
R2 4520
R1 4493
PP 4469
S1 4442
S2 4418
Close was below Fri s1, 2 day ftse chart targeting 4440 on cont weakness if dow does not hold 10525 tonight, brk up our of the downtrend at 4470 to target 4490! For next week i can see a test of 4400 the bottom of the uptrend channel since April, on a brk of my LT sig line at 4450, max upside limited to 4490/500 short term imho!
ThePlayboy
- 11 Jan 2004 12:21
- 5 of 29
Key DOW Levels for 1/12
UP Above 10,525
DN Below 10,450
Channel Break
Dow breaks lower channel boundary, sells off to Close.
From prior commentary, "...we will continue to monitor the lower boundary of the steep channel, as a clear and solid break of the line will fuel a large retracement..."
The Dow broke the lower boundary of the channel early in the session, but was not able to follow through to the downside. The Dow traded quietly sideways the remainder of the session before finally getting another sharp sell-off, this time smashing through the lower channel boundary to force a 132 point loss for the day, seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts.
The downside break of the steep channel implies a likely retracement, one that is overdue at this point. However, the index will likely form a continuation pattern at the lows before direction either way is seen. Look for the index to consolidate at the lows Monday. Such a consolidation will give us clues to future direction.
A downside break below 10,450 will indicate a continuation lower, while a solid break back above 10,500 will spark strength.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow has formed an expanding triangle at the lows of the 1 Minute Chart, which implies weakness for Monday's Open. Watch 10,480 for strength, and 10,450 for short term direction.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we entered the market Short this afternoon at 10,497 and are still in the market. We will continue to hold stops at the entry to allow wiggle room for the index. We will stay Short below 10,450, and will look for Longs above 10,525, with 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ got a round trip session today, while the S&P traded lower and higher before finally settling for a sharp decline. The lower boundary of the channels are beginning to give way, which implies the retracement will likely be extended Monday. *
Summary
The Dow sold off heavily this morning, but didn't really get going until late in the session, in which the index smashed through the lower channel boundary. The downside break from the channel implies further downside movement, but look for the index to remain within the overall long term uptrend.
Crocodile - 11 Jan 2004 12:33 - 6 of 29
D.
little woman
- 11 Jan 2004 19:04
- 7 of 29
mmmmmmmmmmmmm see you at market open.
Melnibone - 11 Jan 2004 19:26 - 8 of 29
Good evening.
Looks to me like we are in a 4 day downtrend channel that had
a spike higher on Thursday.
We should gap open lower on Monday, CMC spread already down
to 4450 which was the top of the old 6 month uptrend channel.
I agree with TP that a test of 4400 is likely in the next few days.
We should hit S1 at 4442 early on, and S2 at 4418 is pretty
close to the round figure support at 4400, so we may test it as
early as tomorrow.
Can't really see this bounce to over 4600 by Tuesday that folk
have been talking about.
Will be careful about getting too agressive with any shorts. The
trend is still firmly up, until it changes, and IMHO any downside
will be treated as a natural retracement until proved otherwise.
My P@F chart doesn't indicate a possible change in trend until
4150 is convincingly breached.
See you all tomorrow.
Melnibone.
Crocodile - 11 Jan 2004 23:37 - 9 of 29
Thanks TOM :-)
ThePlayboy
- 12 Jan 2004 07:15
- 10 of 29
Re-traders meet just a question of getting the time, will try, if I can will post on the thread.
Crocodile - 12 Jan 2004 07:37 - 11 of 29
Morning all!
Douggie - 12 Jan 2004 08:24 - 12 of 29
little woman
- 12 Jan 2004 08:37
- 13 of 29
Melnibone - 12 Jan 2004 08:53 - 14 of 29
Nice chart Croc.
I see 4450 is acting as the support at the moment.
I think, not sure without checking, that the last time
that the US had a big down day on a Friday that it took
it back again on the Monday.
No real market moving data out today, so it's possible that
the US will not follow through with another down move today.
So perhaps FTSE will just wobble around a bit until the US
does its thing.
Oil stocks did the damage last week, but they don't look that
weak today, and they are a big influence on the FTSE.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 12 Jan 2004 09:09
- 15 of 29
Chance to actually do some work today!
Melnibone - 12 Jan 2004 09:25 - 16 of 29
I can't bring myself to ignore a 73 pence gap with
BP. as well as that huge gap on the chart that will
need filling at some point.
Also, the yield has gone back above 4%.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 12 Jan 2004 09:53 - 17 of 29
AZN still coming down nicely since I last mentioned it.
If it keeps dropping I've got support at 2550. If it breaks
that then it should suffer a nice tank down.
(no idea if it will break it, by the way.)
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 12 Jan 2004 10:28 - 18 of 29
as a day trade and take profits, so I'm logging off
to stop myself.
See you all when the US opens.
Melnibone.
Crocodile - 12 Jan 2004 11:20 - 19 of 29
Melnibone - 12 Jan 2004 14:47 - 20 of 29
FTSE 4450 still just holding.
Still in SHEL Testex. I want more than a couple of pence
scalp out of this one.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 12 Jan 2004 15:03
- 21 of 29
Melnibone - 12 Jan 2004 15:05 - 22 of 29
HSBA starting to look interesting.
At 870p it's only about 8p above the last higher low in the
middle of December.
Need to watch where the FTSE drops to. If the FTSE retraces
too far, HSBA could break that low and head off towards 840p.
The problem with that, would be that HSBA had turned from higher
highs and higher lows, to lower highs and lower lows.
Interesting times.
Melnibone.
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