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Traders Thread - Tuesday 13th January (TSCO)
Crocodile - 12 Jan 2004 21:37
| Premarket Futures | FTSE +15 | DAX +10 | DOW -16 | S&P -1.3 | Nasdaq -0.5 |
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| London Traders Day 29th January - Traders Room Investors Room | |||
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US stocks bounce back after Friday's sell off ahead of a raft of earnings reports. Lloyds TSB Finance director to leave immediately Tesco said it was going to sell shares raise about 810 million pounds for expansion?? (Safeway stores) after announcing accelerating UK sales growth which was stronger than expected. Tesco said UK like-for-like sales rose 7.5 percent in the seven weeks to January 3. Group sales were up 16.7 percent after international sales climbed 22 percent. BAA reported a 6.2 percent rise in December passenger traffic from the same month in 2002 and said it airports had their busiest ever Christmas period. They had a record number of passengers in calendar 2003, up 3.6 percent to 131.1 million Burberry posted a 15 percent rise in third-quarter underlying sales and was upbeat about its prospects, with a healthy wholesale order book and good response to spring/summer ranges Aviva the UK's biggest insurer said it would cut 2004 bonus payments on maturing with-profits policies but would maintain bonus rates on more recent policies at 2003 levels. SABMiller The London-based world's second-largest brewer said it had seen strong volume growth across most of its operations, with Beer South Africa growing by almost three percent. New Look clothes retailer said like-for-like sales during the Christmas period fell 3.1 percent, but did not update the market on a potential offer by founder Tom Singh. Rolls-Royce said it had won a $107 million contract to supply Trent compression packages to Dolphin Energy Limited as part of a $3.5 billion gas project in the Middle East. AstraZeneca said the U.S. regulators had approved schizophrenia medicine Seroquel as a treatment for manic depressive illness. Yates Group bar operator said it had a satisfactory Christmas and New Year trading period, with group like-for-like sales up 0.2% Computacenter computer services provider said it expected its pre-tax profit for 2003 to be in line with its expectations "Trading was slightly weaker in the third quarter, but this was compensated for by a strengthening in the fourth quarter," |
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Domino Printing (F), Parkdean Holidays (F), Vernalis (I) Tesco Trading Update, New Look Trading Update BAA Traffic Figures, Burberry Trading Update, Granada (AGM), Wiggins plc (Planestation) Open offer Ex Date. Terms are 1 warrant for every five shares. Warrant entitles holder to 1 new share at 10pComputercentre Pre-Close Statement 09.30 Nov Industrial Production m/m 0.3% exp. 09.30 Nov Manufacturing Production m/m 0.3% exp. 13.30 Dec NIESR GDP Estimate |
Accenture (Q1), Plantronics (Q3) 13.30 Dec Import Price Index m/m 0.4% exp. |
07.00 Dec German Wholesale Price Index m/m 0.1% exp. |
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ThePlayboy
- 13 Jan 2004 07:16
- 3 of 25
Key DOW Levels for 1/13
UP Above 10,525
DN Below 10,440
Consolidating
Dow trades sideways, forms tight consolidation at lows.
From prior commentary, "...The downside break of the steep channel implies a likely retracement, one that is overdue at this point. However, the index will likely form a continuation pattern at the lows before direction either way is seen. Look for the index to consolidate at the lows Monday..."
The Dow opened the session quietly this morning and ultimately ended the day stagnant, as the index traded sideways the entire session, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The day's sideways activity led to the formation of a tight consolidation that has formed at the lows of the recent decline, seen in both the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. The consolidation spans from 10,440 to 10,490, which will be the boundaries to watch for tomorrow's market.
The fact that the index has formed a consolidation at the lows implies a continuation lower. Such is typically the case after a major trend has been broken. A downside break from the consolidation at 10,440 will likely extend Friday's downmove, leading to a larger retracement.
However, looking at the 15 and even the 5 Minute Charts, you'll notice that the consolidation is in the shape of a saucer. Saucer bottoms typically result in a move higher, therefore, we will watch 10,490 for an upside break to indicate strength. However, the index must break through 10,525 if significant strength is to be seen.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow ended the day right at short term resistance at 10,490, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. Watch this level closely, using it as a fulcrum for short term direction for Tuesday's Open.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we are still Short the Dow from 10,497 and will continue to hold breakeven stops. We will add to Shorts below 10,440 and will look to enter Longs abvove 10,525, with 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P trended slowly higher throughout the day, leading to a gain for the session. The NASDAQ led all indexes with solid gains and is now sitting at resistance. Watch this level closely tomorrow. *
Summary
The Dow traded sideways throughout the session today, forming a tight range at the lows of the recent decline. The consolidation implies further weakness in the medium term, but the Dow ended the day at the upper boundary of the range, which could set off a saucer reversal. Watch 10,440 down, and 10,500 up for direction tomorrow.
Crocodile - 13 Jan 2004 07:38 - 4 of 25
Morning all
Douggie - 13 Jan 2004 08:26 - 5 of 25
little woman
- 13 Jan 2004 08:35
- 6 of 25
It seems that the market didn't kindly to the news at LLoyds!
Short Lloyds
Long GSK
Druid2
- 13 Jan 2004 08:46
- 7 of 25
little woman
- 13 Jan 2004 08:53
- 8 of 25
Melnibone - 13 Jan 2004 09:08 - 9 of 25
nice little close on the US yesterday.
4450 is still important to the FTSE.
Still short-term long GSK and SHEL and looking for some scalps in
other stocks today.
I see that my CMC MarketMaker has frozen again. This always
happens during the week after they upgrade the system. :-(
Melnibone
Melnibone - 13 Jan 2004 09:18 - 10 of 25
Early days yet, but it looks like my GSK's might be
finally on the turn. Already the high is higher than
Friday and Monday.
Not going to get exited yet though, we still need the S@P
and the FTSE to turn around and start moving up again.
FTSE really needs to break and close above the round figure
4500.
Melnibone.
Druid2
- 13 Jan 2004 09:40
- 11 of 25
Melnibone - 13 Jan 2004 09:59 - 12 of 25
Just goes to show that you should always trust your own instincts.
I wouldn't touch an airline in the current climate, nothing to do
with the companies just the noise and sentiment, and look what
I've missed out on in BAY and EZJ.
Well done for sticking to your guns.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 13 Jan 2004 10:40 - 13 of 25
He is expecting a huge up day on the US markets.
Melnibone.
stockbunny
- 13 Jan 2004 15:05
- 14 of 25
on the FTSE tomorrow!! Off to watch the magical streaming now.....
Melnibone - 13 Jan 2004 15:14 - 15 of 25
One possibility today is that the market stays quiet
until Greenspan speaks at 1600 Hrs (UK time), and then
takes off after the UK close.
Not a lot happening at the moment.
Melnibone.
ThePlayboy
- 13 Jan 2004 15:23
- 16 of 25
Melnibone - 13 Jan 2004 15:36 - 17 of 25
What's particularly galling is that I could have
taken profits on my longs and bought back again cheaper.
The time I do that though, you can bet your wedge that
they will take off and not come back.
Just need to do what we always do, back your own view
until proved wrong, keep your discipline and stop out to
protect your money if they are hit.
Melnibone.
ThePlayboy
- 13 Jan 2004 15:39
- 18 of 25
Melnibone - 13 Jan 2004 15:43 - 19 of 25
2550p finally hit on AZN as predicted. Guess my De Lorean is working.;-)
Now formed an iffy Head and Shoulders.
Any takers for H@S shorts, or longs for a bounce off support?
Melnibone.
little woman
- 13 Jan 2004 15:56
- 20 of 25
Melnibone - 13 Jan 2004 15:58 - 21 of 25
HSBA down to support, might be a good one to watch if the
market starts to revert to the up trend again.
HBOS did this recently and took off without me. All I got
was a measly scalp.
Melnibone.
Druid2
- 13 Jan 2004 16:13
- 22 of 25
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