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London Traders Day 29th January -   Traders Room    Investors Room

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U.S. stocks fell back toward the close amid some jitters ahead of earnings. The Dow finished -58, S&P -6 and the Nasdaq -15 Marks and Spencer said its director of clothing is to quit after revealing a bigger than expected 3.3 percent fall in sales although profit margins had been protected and were on target. Non-food like-for-like sales including homewares and gifts fell 4.5 percent compared to analysts worst fears of a 2.5 percent drop. Food sales were up 0.7 percent on a like-for-like basis, not as strong as analysts had hoped given buoyant results elsewhere in the sector. Dixons beat forecasts with Christmas sales data like-for-like sales rising five percent in the eight weeks to January 10. This included a four percent rise in the UK.on Wednesday as it tuned into strong demand for flat screen TVs and computers, and forecast "satisfactory" year results. The firm says it has no plans to close stores. JJB Sports said it planned to return up to 40 million pounds in a tender offer as it reported a fall in turnover over the important Christmas trading period amid tough competition from discount retailer and supermarkets Wolseley plumbing and heating equipment, said trading profit for the five months ended December 31 was up 26.5 percent in constant currency with "the UK and U.S. distribution businesses having performed strongly, Mothercare said its sales rose 6.5 percent in the eight weeks to January 11, putting it on course to beat market profit forecasts for the year. Lastminute.com said trading in its first quarter was strong. "Trading in the first quarter, the seasonally weakest quarter, was strong being ahead of expectations, especially in the area of flights Matalan reported a five percent slump in Christmas sales and said stock sales had been disappointing and would lead to more clearance. Analysts had forecast a four to seven percent slump in like-for-like sales.

Calendar: United Kingdom	United States (GMT)	Europe & World (GMT
DTZ Holdings (I), JD Sports (TS), London Scot Bank (F), Northgate (I), Dixons H1 & Christmas Trading,  Marks & Spencer Trading Update Matalan Trading StatementWolseley Trading Update, JJB Sports Trading Update Mothercare Trading Update. Punch Taverns (AGM), 09.30 Dec Unemployment 5k exp. 09.30 Nov Average Earnings 3m y/y 3.7% exp. 11.00 CBI Property Trend	US: Andersen Group (Q3), Apple Computer (Q1), Delta Airline (Q4), Yahoo (Q4) 13.30 Nov Trade Balance -$42.0bn exp. 13.30 Dec PPI m/m 0.2% exp. 19.00 Fed Beige Book	EADS (Conference) Finnair (Traffic) 07.00 Dec Final German CPI y/y
Ex Dividend: Abbey ( 0.1), Associated British Foods (9.85), Avon Rubber (4.5), Berkeley Group (5.8), Burtonwood Breweries (3.2), Dewhurst (2.92), Eldridge Pope (5.34), First Group (3.75), Northern Foods (3.3), Paragon Group (3.7), Robert Wiseman (2), ScS Upholstery (6), WAGN (4)

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Updated 1/13 for Wednesday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 1/14
UP Above 10,500
DN Below 10,350

Down Move
Dow breaks consolidation to downside, trends lower.

From prior commentary, "...The fact that the index has formed a consolidation at the lows implies a continuation lower...A downside break from the consolidation at 10,440 will likely extend Friday's downmove, leading to a larger retracement..."
The Dow barely peaked above the 10,500 level this morning, but quickly pulled back, leading to an eventual downside break from the consolidation formed during yesterday's trading. The downside break at 10,440, seen in the 15 Minute Chart, sparked weakness the remainder of the session, where the Dow closed the day lower by 77 points.

Looking at the 60 Minute Chart, you see that the index continues to retrace after breaking the lower channel boundary Friday afternoon. This is by far the largest retracement within the current uptrend. We may see similar activity until the index can find support, especially if the Dow stays below 10,500.

A solid upside push through 10,500 could spark the formation of a wide trading range at the highs of the major uptrend.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow ended the day within the boundaries of a tight consolidation that has formed at the lows of the 5 Minute Chart from 10,370 to 10,430. A downside break from this range is implied tomorrow morning, but watch for a break either way to indication short term direction.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we covered Shorts this morning at 10,497, giving us a breakeven trade. We later entered the market Short at 10,440 and are still in the position, with stops at the entry. We will want to stay Short below 10,350, and will look to go Long above 10,500, with 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each pulled back the entire session today, but the NASDAQ was able to find a solid source of support. Watch support closely tomorrow, as a break or bounce here will likely determine direction. *

Summary

The Dow continues to decline after having broken the major lower trend line of the channel. Look for a continued downtrend to occur until the index forms a base at support. Further downside is likely below 10,500, however, a break above this level could offer strength.

Morning all.

morning all

MATALAN PLC

TRADING STATEMENT

As stated at the time of the trading statement on 10th December 2003, the
remaining Christmas trading period and end of season sale activity was critical
in determining the outcome for the year. Matalan has continued to experience
difficult trading conditions in the intervening period, and began discounting
before Christmas. Trading has been:-

Total sales for the 5 week period to 10th January 2004 were up 5.5%
(2003: 15.6%) and like for like down 5.0% (2003: up 1.0%).

Cumulative sales for the 19 week period were up 3.3% (2003: 15.4%) and
like for like down 6.4% (2003: up 1.6%).

Gross margins in the 19 week period were down 1.7% year on year.

Despite an earlier and heavier level of markdown than last year, sell
through of terminal stocks has been disappointing and additional clearance
activity in the balance of year will therefore be undertaken.

Matalan now estimates that Group profit before taxation for the full year to
28th February 2004 will be in the range of 60m to 70m. The final outcome is
clearly dependent on the level of activity needed to clear terminal stock in the
balance of year.

John King, Group Chief Executive, said: 'This has been a disappointing Christmas
for Matalan, and the tough trading conditions experienced in the run up to
Christmas resulted in greater discounting than planned. The management team
believe the actions needed to correct the stock position are being
taken.'



***************************************************


DIXONS GROUP plc
INTERIM RESULTS FOR THE 28 WEEKS ENDED 15 NOVEMBER 2003

Dixons Group plc, Europe's leading specialist electrical retailer, today
announces interim results.

INTERIM RESULTS

Turnover increased by 21% to 3.1 billion (2002/03: 2.6 billion)

Group like for like sales up 1%; UK like for like sales were flat and
International like for like up 3%

Operating profit (including goodwill amortisation) increased by 15% to
102.4 million (2002/03: 89.4 million)

Profit before tax (excluding goodwill amortisation) increased by 9% to
105.7 million (2002/03: 97.1 million)

Profit before tax (including goodwill amortisation) increased by 9% to
103.4 million (2002/03: 94.8 million)

Basic earnings per share increased by 3% to 3.7 pence (2002/03: 3.6
pence)

Interim dividend of 1.660 pence (2002/03: 1.510 pence), an increase of
10%

On 24 November 2003, the Group successfully sold 48.4 million Wanadoo SA
shares, raising 310 million (216 million) cash

On 8 December 2003, the Group disposed of its European property
development business, Codic International SA for 33 million (23 million)
cash.

CHRISTMAS TRADING

Group sales for the 8 weeks ended 10 January 2004 were up 12% in total
and 5% on a like for like basis. In the UK, sales increased by 7% in total
and 4% on a like for like basis. Sales in the International division
increased by 28% in total and 7% on a like for like basis.




**********

JJB Sports plc ('JJB')


Trading Statement

JJB Sports plc the UK's largest sports retailer, announces details of its
trading performance for the 23 weeks ended 4 January 2004 which includes the
important Christmas and New Year period.

Turnover and gross margins for the 23 weeks ended 4 January 2004 were as
follows: -


Total turnover 1.2 per cent lower than last year
Like-for-like turnover 3.5 per cent lower than last year
Gross margin 300 basis points higher than last year

These figures are in respect of the core JJB business including stores and
health clubs and do not include any part of the results of the TJ Hughes
business which was sold on 14 November 2003.

At the time of the announcement of its interim results for the 26 weeks ended 27
July 2003, on 8 October, JJB referred to the recovery of the gross margin within
its core business as a result of improvements made to its buying and
merchandising functions. The gross margin had suffered from high levels of mark
down during 2002/3, in particular, during the second half of that year to 31
January 2003. The results for the 23 weeks ended 4 January 2004 reflect the
improving control within the buying and merchandising functions giving higher
gross margins to help offset the slightly lower levels of turnover.

JJB's turnover in footwear, replica products and equipment/accessories for the
23 weeks to 4 January 2004, were higher than in the comparative period last year
but competition within the retail clothing sector, in particular in '
value-for-money' ranges, impacted adversely upon levels of turnover in its
clothing category. The level of turnover within JJB's health clubs continues to
be buoyant.

In common with many retailers, JJB experienced a sluggish start to the Christmas
period and it was not until the week before Christmas that turnover began to
exceed the levels of last year; this improved relative performance continued
until 4 January. JJB's post-Christmas sale has been successful, in terms of
turnover and gross margin, both of which exceeded the figures achieved in the
corresponding period last year.

JJB has continued its policy of opening superstores and closing smaller high
street stores. During the second half of the year, JJB opened 18 stores and
closed 16 smaller high street stores bringing the total openings for the 49
weeks of the current year (including combined health club/superstores and 'icon'
stores) to 31 stores and total closures to 25 stores. These closures include the
three large stores in Oxford Street London, Amsterdam and Rotterdam, which were
loss-making; the closure of these stores has impacted upon the decrease in
turnover during the second half of the current year.

At 4 January 2004, JJB operated from 449 stores representing approximately 4.2
million square feet of selling space and includes 191 out of town superstores,
93 high street superstores and 165 smaller high street stores including those
under the 'icon' fascia. This compares to 447 stores in operation at 27 July
2003, representing approximately 4.1 million square feet of selling space.
Further growth in superstores will be achieved during 2004 with contracts
already exchanged for 15 sites, including 6 that will also contain health clubs.

In contrast to several health club chains, JJB's unique concept of a combined
health club and superstore format continues to prove successful and to deliver a
strong value for money offer. During the 23 weeks ended 4 January 2004, JJB
opened a further 3 combined health club/superstores, taking the total number of
these units in operation at that date to 16.


******************************************************


Marks & Spencer Group PLC
14 January 2004


Issued: Wednesday 14 January 2004

JANUARY TRADING STATEMENT

UK: Sales (inc. VAT)

Sales for the 7-week and 15-week periods to 10th January, 2004 were:

7 weeks to 15 weeks to
10th January 10th January
% on Last Year % on Last Year

Actual Like-for-like* Actual Like-for-like*

Clothing and -3.0 - -3.3 -
Footwear

Home (inc. Gifts) -4.0 - -5.1 -
_____ _____ _____ _____
General -3.2 -4.1 -3.6 -4.5

Food +4.7 +0.5 +4.7 +0.7
_____ _____ _____ _____
Total -0.1 -2.3 -0.4 -2.5
____ _____ _____ _____


*Like-for-like sales have been estimated by comparing total sales with
new, developed and closed stores excluded.

Commenting on performance, Roger Holmes, Chief Executive said:

'Total sales were marginally down this quarter, with growth in Food sales offset
by a disappointing Clothing performance, down 3.3%, of which 2% was volume.
Stock commitments were well controlled and gross margin gains will be delivered
as planned.

'The fall in clothing sales was driven by a weak performance in certain key
Womenswear areas, notably knitwear, coats and suits, where our ranges were not
strong enough and the warm weather had significant impact. Where the product was
right, such as in per una and casualwear, we achieved strong sales growth.


'Sales in Lingerie improved, outperforming the market and Menswear was
marginally down, in line with the market. Childrenswear sales were down overall,
although full price sales were up 4%, with significantly less discounting than
last year.

'In Home, good progress was made in gifts and seasonal stationery, but other
categories under-performed as we continue repositioning the ranges in
preparation for the first Marks & Spencer Lifestore. This will open on schedule,
in Gateshead, on 25th February.

'Food performance was adequate and we held market share over the period. We
opened 22 Simply Food and Food stores, adding c.100,000 square feet of new Food
space over the quarter. Overall these formats are performing in line with our
plans and we are pleased these stores are attracting new customers.

'With non-Food sales below plan, we controlled commitments tightly and put less
stock than last year into the January Sale, which has since cleared well.
Mark-down costs for the quarter were marginally ahead of last year due to
promotional activity earlier in the season, but the clothing bought-in margin is
coming through slightly higher than forecast at the time of our Interim Results.

'The launch of the &more credit and loyalty card has been successful, with the
total number of activated credit card accounts at the end of December standing
at just under 1.7 million.'
--------------------

Morning all ..

Melnibone closed that ftse long from Tu -25 btw, think its time to go to the Boatshow at the Excel, am pondering!

The past few weeks 9am has proved a much more pivitol time than 8.30, eg if ftse falls into the timeframe always chance of a 9am rev, something to watch!

mornin all

Morning all,

Thanks for pivotal times TP.
By the way, have you noticed that Tom H. on the site he posts
on, has hijacked our Delorean strategy?

When shall we tell him that it's faulty goods. ;-)

Sorry to hear your stop was hit. Haven't got any index
positions at the moment. I'm waiting for a retracement swing low
and a positive up signal.

Just got those couple of dividend paying longer term blue
chips to cover any up move. Got some wide mental stops on them
that I'll activate if met or increase positions if trend turns
back up.

Just looking for intraday scalps at the moment whilst keeping an eye
on some more blue chips that I fancy.

Melnibone.

I see that the Head and Shoulders seems to be playing out on AZN.
Now down to 2527.

After identifying this on GSK, why on earth didn't I wait for
it to play out! Doh!

The more we learn, the cockier we get and think we can outsmart
the market. Still, shows we are still human I suppose.

Melnibone.

Morning all,

I'm not trading today - got in rather late this morning (0330), and have lots to sort out for this eve. meeting and I'm really shattered!

14/01 10:01 ANALYST RATINGS CHANGES AS OF 1000 GMT

BROKER & NEW RATING (FROM) TARGET (PREVIOUS)
COMPANY
=========================================================
Citigroup Smith Barney:
Adecco Hold (Buy)
Telenor NOK48 (NOK34)
=========================================================
CSFB:
Logitech Outperform CHF70
Novartis Buy (Neutral) CHF65 (CHF56)
Altana Underperform (Neutral)
Croda Outperform (Neutral)
British Vita Outperform (Neutral)
Clariant Outperform (Neutral)
Lonza Underperform (Neutral) CHF64
Yule Catto Underperform (Neutral)
=========================================================
Goldman Sachs:
Tandberg In-Line (Outperform)

=========================================================
JP Morgan:
SAP Underweight (Neutral)
=========================================================
Landesbank Rheinland-Pfalz:
Degussa Marketperform (Underperform)
=========================================================
Lehman Bros:
Alliance & Leic Underweight (Equalweight) 840P (913P)
Societe Generale Overweight (Equalweight) EUR82 (EUR67)
Credit Suisse Underweight (Equalweight) CHF43
ABN Amro Equalweight (Overweight)
Monte dei Paschi Overweight (Equalweight) EUR2.9(EUR2.1)
Altana EUR49 (EUR56)
Merck KGaA EUR33 (EUR29)
=========================================================
Morgan Stanley:
Autoliv Equalweight (Overweight)
HVB Group Equalweight
=========================================================
Numis:
Matalan Sell 130P (140P)
Mothercare 350P (400P)
=========================================================
UBS:
Norske Skog Buy (Neutral) NOK155 (NOK130)
Autonomy Neutral (Buy) 305P (290P)
Surfcontrol Neutral (Buy) 700P (950P)
Suess Microtec Neutral (Buy)
UPM Kymmene EUR17.5 (EUR18.5)
Stora Enso EUR12.5 (EUR13)
M-real EUR7.2 (EUR7.5)
Julius Baer CHF460 (CHF420)
RAS EUR15 (EUR13.5)
=========================================================

Not sure if this will work, trying the 'Insert Image Link' again.

If it comes out ok, it will show how over sold SHEL is.

Before anyone accuses me of ramping, as seems to be happening
to other posters, you can't ramp a big blue chip.
Unless you are a broker, of course. ;-)

Melnibone.

http://chart.bigcharts.com/bc3/intchart/frames/chart.asp?symb=UK%3Ashel&compidx=aaaaa%

That didn't work, let's try again with the insert website link.

Melnibone.

That didn't work either. I give up.

What I was looking at was:

1) Chart at bottom of trading range.
2) Fast stochastic at the bottom at Zero.
3) Williams%r at the bottom at - 100
4) RSI barely above 20.

Bring up the indicators on your own chart site to check out
what I'm saying.

Melnibone.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=&time=&freq=

One last try at an insert link. I know this works because other
folk do it. It's me that's doing something wrong.

Melnibone.

Eureka! Success at last.

Melnibone.

Always do what you're comfortable with Testex.

Other peoples views are just that, views, nothing more, nothing less.

Melnibone.

Although today finished up, it was in fact a down day.

Look at the bars and you will see that we made a lower high and a lower
low.
3 of the last 4 bars have now been down days. What I'm looking for
now is a day with a higher low and a higher high. If I get it and
the situation 'smells' right, then I will consider an index long.

Depends how messy things get and what sentiment feels like.

Melnibone.