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Traders Thread - Wednesday 4th February (BAY)
Crocodile - 04 Feb 2004 02:02
| UK PreMarket Futures | FTSE -12 | DAX -30 | DOW -38 | S&P -4.3 | Nasdaq -9.8 |
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US. stocks closed barely changed after see-sawing on both sides of breakeven throughout the session as investors took in the discovery of a poisonous substance in a U.S. Senate mail room. Cisco had better-than-expected sales and earnings but its stock fell back.MmO2 mobile phone company, said it had won 855,000 new subscribers in its British, German and Irish markets in the Christmas quarter of 2003, topping expectations. Analysts had pencilled in new subscribers of between 590,000 and 695,000. Subscriber revenues were also robust climbing 8.5% to 264 pounds per customer for 12 months. Scottish Power reported a rise in third-quarter earnings that was at the low end of forecasts with third quarter earnings per share rose to 10.2 pence from 10.02 pence a year earlier against analysts forecasts of around 10.3 pence. Profit rose 2.4 percent from last year to 258 million pounds although this was also below many analysts' forecasts.Bellway builder of low-cost homes said it expected to beat current market expectations for the full year, on a surging number of houses built during the second half.
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British Airways (Traffic) Mm02 (Q3 KPIs), Scottish Power (Q3) 09:30 Jan services PMI, 58.5 prev.
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International Paper (Q4), Boston Scientific (Q4),Cisco (Q2), Sprint (Q4), Colgate-Palmolive (Q4), Tyco (Q1), Chubb (Q4), Mattell (Q4), Anheuser Busch (Q4), Allstate (Q4), Pixar (Q4),Northrup Grumman (Q4) 15:00 Dec durable goods R 15:00 Dec factory orders, 1.3% exp. 15:00 Jan non manufacturing ISM, 59.8 exp. |
DaimlerChrysler (F), France Telecom (Turnover) Henkel (F), AXA (Turnover), Nexans (F) Wella (EGM) Ixos Software (Q2), Infogrammes (9M) 09:00 Jan services PMI, 57.0 exp. 11:00 Jan flash HICP y/y, 2.05% exp. |
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Ex Dividend: Carpetright Plc (17), Computerland Plc (1.35), Coral Products Plc (1.05), DS Smith PLC (2.8), Electra Kingsway VCT PLC (0.9), First Technology Plc (3.5), Fletcher King Plc (0.3), Fountains plc (1.92), Halladale Group Plc (0.7), Hardys & Hansons Plc (11.5), IFX Group PLC (0.25), Latchways Plc (3.18), NHP Plc (2.25), Smith WH Plc (0.742868), Somerfield Plc (0.6), SSL International Plc (3.9), Victrex Plc (5.3), Warner Estate Holdings Plc (8.25), Widney Plc (0.5), Wyndeham Press Group Plc (1.5) |
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prodman - 04 Feb 2004 07:07 - 3 of 33
Morning All.
ThePlayboy
- 04 Feb 2004 07:18
- 4 of 33
WEDS FTSE PP
R2 4415
R1 4403
PP 4380
S1 4368
S2 4345
Tues close was above the pp after gaining 2.6pts in the auction, ftse attempting a breakout of the downtrend imho after closing above 375 to target 4405, start of uptrend failure at 380, all down to the dows reaction to 10500 Tue!
R2 4415
R1 4403
PP 4380
S1 4368
S2 4345
Tues close was above the pp after gaining 2.6pts in the auction, ftse attempting a breakout of the downtrend imho after closing above 375 to target 4405, start of uptrend failure at 380, all down to the dows reaction to 10500 Tue!
ThePlayboy
- 04 Feb 2004 07:19
- 5 of 33
Updated 2/3 for Wednesday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 2/4
UP Above 10,575
DN Below 10,450
Quiet Session
Dow trades sideways, closes session flat.
From prior commentary, "...The index will likely continue trading sideways within a wide trading range that has formed from 10,375 to 10,700. A break from this range will likely lead to the next medium term move..."
The Dow traded quietly sideways throughout the session today, as the index continues to digest recent gains and discern future direction. The day's slow activity netted the Dow a mild 6 point gain, seen in the 15 Minute Chart.
Looking at the Daily and 60 Minute Charts show that the Dow remains within the wide trading range boundaries that have formed from 10,375 to 10,700. The index will likely continue to trade within this wide range until clear medium term direction is established. Since the Dow rallied very stongly for over two straight months, seen in the Daily Chart, we could see the index hold at the highs for some time before a major break is seen.
A downside break through 10,450 will likely spark weakness tomorrow, while an upside break through 10,575 will likely result in a re-test of recent highs at about 10,700.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow ended the day within a tight range from 10,490 to 10,510, seen in the 1 Minute Chart. Watch for a break from this range for short term direction tomorrow morning. For day traders, a break either way should yield the opportunity for quick intraday profits.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we are still out of the market, since none of our entry points were triggered. We will watch 10,450 down, and 10,575 up tomorrow, with 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P each continued sideways today, resuming the development of the ranges at the lows. Look for further activity within the range until a solid break occurs. *
Summary
The Dow traded sideways within a very tight range today, ending the session with a slight gain. The index continues to trade within the wide trading range boundaries, which we will continue to watch for signs of medium term direction.
Key DOW Levels for 2/4
UP Above 10,575
DN Below 10,450
Quiet Session
Dow trades sideways, closes session flat.
From prior commentary, "...The index will likely continue trading sideways within a wide trading range that has formed from 10,375 to 10,700. A break from this range will likely lead to the next medium term move..."
The Dow traded quietly sideways throughout the session today, as the index continues to digest recent gains and discern future direction. The day's slow activity netted the Dow a mild 6 point gain, seen in the 15 Minute Chart.
Looking at the Daily and 60 Minute Charts show that the Dow remains within the wide trading range boundaries that have formed from 10,375 to 10,700. The index will likely continue to trade within this wide range until clear medium term direction is established. Since the Dow rallied very stongly for over two straight months, seen in the Daily Chart, we could see the index hold at the highs for some time before a major break is seen.
A downside break through 10,450 will likely spark weakness tomorrow, while an upside break through 10,575 will likely result in a re-test of recent highs at about 10,700.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow ended the day within a tight range from 10,490 to 10,510, seen in the 1 Minute Chart. Watch for a break from this range for short term direction tomorrow morning. For day traders, a break either way should yield the opportunity for quick intraday profits.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we are still out of the market, since none of our entry points were triggered. We will watch 10,450 down, and 10,575 up tomorrow, with 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P each continued sideways today, resuming the development of the ranges at the lows. Look for further activity within the range until a solid break occurs. *
Summary
The Dow traded sideways within a very tight range today, ending the session with a slight gain. The index continues to trade within the wide trading range boundaries, which we will continue to watch for signs of medium term direction.
Melnibone - 04 Feb 2004 08:32 - 6 of 33
Morning all,
Just logged in to the new account that CMC have set me
up with to solve the problems I was having, seems to be working fine.
Cue for problems with Ntl now, no doubt.
Must stop this pessimism. ;-)
Nobody seems to be sure in which direction the indices are going
at the moment and I'm no different.
I think that it will be fairly safe to range trade between 4330
and 4390 and close positions at these levels and wait for direction.
Melnibone.
Just logged in to the new account that CMC have set me
up with to solve the problems I was having, seems to be working fine.
Cue for problems with Ntl now, no doubt.
Must stop this pessimism. ;-)
Nobody seems to be sure in which direction the indices are going
at the moment and I'm no different.
I think that it will be fairly safe to range trade between 4330
and 4390 and close positions at these levels and wait for direction.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 04 Feb 2004 08:45
- 7 of 33
Morning all
The U.K. housing market remains strong as fewer properties for sale helped push house prices higher in January, Halifax said Wednesday in its monthly house price survey.
The Halifax house price index, released by HBOS, showed a rise of 2.2% on the month in January and 16.0% on the year, well below the annual increase of 26.4% in December 2002. In December house prices rose 1.8% on the month and were 15.4% higher on the year. The average price paid by first-time buyers breached the GBP100,000 mark for the first time in January after rising 22.6% over the past year, Halifax said. In 2003, the average price paid by first time buyers was GBP82,968.
"The low stock of second-hand homes for sale has contributed to the continuing strong upward pressure on house prices in recent months," Halifax said.
The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors reported a 9% fall in the number of properties for sale in the final quarter of last year, Halifax Estate Agents confirms that this trend has continued into the new year.
The U.K. housing market remains strong as fewer properties for sale helped push house prices higher in January, Halifax said Wednesday in its monthly house price survey.
The Halifax house price index, released by HBOS, showed a rise of 2.2% on the month in January and 16.0% on the year, well below the annual increase of 26.4% in December 2002. In December house prices rose 1.8% on the month and were 15.4% higher on the year. The average price paid by first-time buyers breached the GBP100,000 mark for the first time in January after rising 22.6% over the past year, Halifax said. In 2003, the average price paid by first time buyers was GBP82,968.
"The low stock of second-hand homes for sale has contributed to the continuing strong upward pressure on house prices in recent months," Halifax said.
The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors reported a 9% fall in the number of properties for sale in the final quarter of last year, Halifax Estate Agents confirms that this trend has continued into the new year.
little woman
- 04 Feb 2004 08:47
- 8 of 33
This some will find surprising:
A strengthening economy and a continually improving labour market bolstered the U.K. housing market in 2003, and with gross domestics product expected to grow even more rapidly in 2004, strength is expected to remain in the market, Halifax said.
The Bank of England is to announce its interest rate decision tomorrow and is widely expected to increase the base rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%.
Halifax expects the BoE Monetary Policy Committee to increase rates to 4.50% by the end of 2004, slowing house price growth and causing the market to ease throughout the year.
Despite the rate rises, Halifax expects affordability to remain good, with mortgage payments remaining relatively low as a percentage of average earnings.
"Should base rates rise to 4.5%, mortgage payments to earnings would rise to around 15%, below the long-term average of 21%, Halifax said.
With a shortage in the number of second-hand properties for sale, the Inland Revenue have reported 16% fewer housing transactions in the three months to December, although the number of houses sold in 2003, 1.34 million, remained above the 1.29 million average seen in the 1990's.
There are signs, however, that activity may be picking up, as the Inland Revenue reported more transactions in the fourth quarter of 2004 than in the previous quarter. Also, Bank of England figures show an 8% rise in the number of mortgage approvals in the fourth quarter of 2003.
A strengthening economy and a continually improving labour market bolstered the U.K. housing market in 2003, and with gross domestics product expected to grow even more rapidly in 2004, strength is expected to remain in the market, Halifax said.
The Bank of England is to announce its interest rate decision tomorrow and is widely expected to increase the base rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%.
Halifax expects the BoE Monetary Policy Committee to increase rates to 4.50% by the end of 2004, slowing house price growth and causing the market to ease throughout the year.
Despite the rate rises, Halifax expects affordability to remain good, with mortgage payments remaining relatively low as a percentage of average earnings.
"Should base rates rise to 4.5%, mortgage payments to earnings would rise to around 15%, below the long-term average of 21%, Halifax said.
With a shortage in the number of second-hand properties for sale, the Inland Revenue have reported 16% fewer housing transactions in the three months to December, although the number of houses sold in 2003, 1.34 million, remained above the 1.29 million average seen in the 1990's.
There are signs, however, that activity may be picking up, as the Inland Revenue reported more transactions in the fourth quarter of 2004 than in the previous quarter. Also, Bank of England figures show an 8% rise in the number of mortgage approvals in the fourth quarter of 2003.
vasey
- 04 Feb 2004 08:48
- 9 of 33
morning, little woman! Hope you've seen DYS this morning....up 4.3% so far
Melnibone - 04 Feb 2004 08:53 - 10 of 33
Don't forget that the Ftse needs to get back up to
4390 to close the gap open down this morning.
So don't get too Bullish for a breakout at this level
too soon. Big danger of getting whip-sawed at that level imho.
Melnibone.
4390 to close the gap open down this morning.
So don't get too Bullish for a breakout at this level
too soon. Big danger of getting whip-sawed at that level imho.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 04 Feb 2004 08:59
- 11 of 33
Morning vasey,
yes I have seen it - both of us should be moving up in GD comp!
yes I have seen it - both of us should be moving up in GD comp!
little woman
- 04 Feb 2004 08:59
- 12 of 33
Currently short FKI & ANL
joe2506 - 04 Feb 2004 09:09 - 13 of 33
Morning Everybody!!
goldfinger
- 04 Feb 2004 10:55
- 14 of 33
A change of direction from Evil k, could prove very interesting..........
Small Caps, AIM and Ofex:
HMM
On a day when our esteemed Prime Minister appears to have had something of a damascene conversion on the existence (or otherwise ) of WMD in Iraq there was an even more dramatic volte face concerning British Energy. Bear raider Evil Knievil has been shorting the stock aggressively for almost a year (and is well ahead on that short) but Knievil now thinks that the company's fortunes have changed dramatically for the better. Knievil revealed exclusively on www.t1ps.com that he has not only closed his short but has taken a significant long position in the expectation that the shares could head well into three figures. With his followers acting quickly to follow suit the shares closed ahead by 1.41p at 7.91p. Evil promises a full explanation of his change of heart as well as the complete run down on why Jarvis (up 3p at 150p today on the back of small scale director buying on Monday) is heading towards the buffers on his regular EvilCast webcast on Wednesday at midday on t1ps.com
cheers GF.
Small Caps, AIM and Ofex:
HMM
On a day when our esteemed Prime Minister appears to have had something of a damascene conversion on the existence (or otherwise ) of WMD in Iraq there was an even more dramatic volte face concerning British Energy. Bear raider Evil Knievil has been shorting the stock aggressively for almost a year (and is well ahead on that short) but Knievil now thinks that the company's fortunes have changed dramatically for the better. Knievil revealed exclusively on www.t1ps.com that he has not only closed his short but has taken a significant long position in the expectation that the shares could head well into three figures. With his followers acting quickly to follow suit the shares closed ahead by 1.41p at 7.91p. Evil promises a full explanation of his change of heart as well as the complete run down on why Jarvis (up 3p at 150p today on the back of small scale director buying on Monday) is heading towards the buffers on his regular EvilCast webcast on Wednesday at midday on t1ps.com
cheers GF.
snoball
- 04 Feb 2004 11:33
- 15 of 33
Morning. Mind if I join you?
I need to bone up on share trading/investing.
Thought I would start here.
I'm off to check my ANL chart, lw.
I need to bone up on share trading/investing.
Thought I would start here.
I'm off to check my ANL chart, lw.
Fundamentalist
- 04 Feb 2004 11:48
- 16 of 33
Hi all
opened another long GSK yesterday at 1168p - melnibone are you still trading GSK - any views. Also looking to go long HBOS prior to results though price seems to have a little further lower to go yet imho.
LW - i am also short FKI from 121p (after reading the thread on the traders board). Do you expect this to get stuck at the resistance at 105p or do you see it going further?
opened another long GSK yesterday at 1168p - melnibone are you still trading GSK - any views. Also looking to go long HBOS prior to results though price seems to have a little further lower to go yet imho.
LW - i am also short FKI from 121p (after reading the thread on the traders board). Do you expect this to get stuck at the resistance at 105p or do you see it going further?
little woman
- 04 Feb 2004 11:54
- 17 of 33
Fundamentalist - FKI keeps trying to make a come back, but doesn't seem to be able to maintain it.
I bought this share as a medium term investment last year at 85p and sold out at 90p a couple of months later as I thought I had made a big mistake and it was overpriced!
The company is in real trouble over it banking covenants and I think they are being forced by the banks to do the things they are doing (not a good way to run a business). As the share price drops they will get into more trouble, so although it may stick at the resistance, I don't see why it could not go further. (especially if interest rates go up - which would really hurt FKI)
I bought this share as a medium term investment last year at 85p and sold out at 90p a couple of months later as I thought I had made a big mistake and it was overpriced!
The company is in real trouble over it banking covenants and I think they are being forced by the banks to do the things they are doing (not a good way to run a business). As the share price drops they will get into more trouble, so although it may stick at the resistance, I don't see why it could not go further. (especially if interest rates go up - which would really hurt FKI)
Melnibone - 04 Feb 2004 12:09 - 18 of 33
Hi Fundamentalist,
Have been scalping GSK on the dips. Still reckon it's a good stock, but
I still see a chance of it testing 1150 if the FTSE tests 4330.
My Delorean is still bust, so I don't know if the Ftse will test
4330. :-) but unless it breaks the current downtrend it's on the cards.
Melnibone.
Have been scalping GSK on the dips. Still reckon it's a good stock, but
I still see a chance of it testing 1150 if the FTSE tests 4330.
My Delorean is still bust, so I don't know if the Ftse will test
4330. :-) but unless it breaks the current downtrend it's on the cards.
Melnibone.
vasey
- 04 Feb 2004 12:27
- 19 of 33
Hello snoball! Welcome..... Personally, I thought your trading style had its merits. Your 'Poochies'- for example!
Fundamentalist
- 04 Feb 2004 12:43
- 20 of 33
LW - thanks for that - i am aware of the bank covenants - it is the prime reason I was happy to be short the stock - its just the recent support it seems to find each time it takes a small drop that worries me
melnibone - thanks for that - I am at a point where i could take my profit on GSK but have decided that this is a medium term hold
melnibone - thanks for that - I am at a point where i could take my profit on GSK but have decided that this is a medium term hold
stockbunny
- 04 Feb 2004 13:26
- 21 of 33
Afternoon happy bunnies!! Hope your day is going well!
Got out of ALN just before lunch, nice little profit banked
away in time hopefully for an increase in the interest rate (lol)
there it can sit until I sort out the next target.
Yes I know ALN is bound to continue to go UP now I've sold but
know what...I don't care!!!! (giggle!)
Off to check stock-watch......
Got out of ALN just before lunch, nice little profit banked
away in time hopefully for an increase in the interest rate (lol)
there it can sit until I sort out the next target.
Yes I know ALN is bound to continue to go UP now I've sold but
know what...I don't care!!!! (giggle!)
Off to check stock-watch......
little woman
- 04 Feb 2004 13:27
- 22 of 33
Closed ANL 2.5+
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