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Traders Thread - Wednesday 25th February (HBOS)
Crocodile - 24 Feb 2004 20:18
| UK PreMarket Futures | FTSE +2 | DAX Unch | DOW +7 | S&P +-0.6 | Nasdaq +1.5 |
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US Stocks fell for the fifth day on worries that prices may be getting too high, particularly in the tech sector. Heineken earnings flat & it warns that the dollar will hit next years earnings. HBOS reported a 29 percent rise in profit to 3.77 billion pounds, near the top of market expectations, and predicted higher shareholder returns starting this year. Aviva the UK's largest insurer annual profit rose 11 percent to 1.907 billion pounds following cost cutting. A strong second half pushed it ahead of market forecasts of around 1.7 billion pounds.The group recommended a final dividend of 24.15 pence, an increase of five percent from the previous year. Anglo American global mining and packing reported a four percent fall in annual profit but within market expectations. They were hit by currency markets, but have predicted good growth for the year ahead. Marks & Spencer will today open the doors of its new home products store in Gateshead hoping to become a leader in the market. Wilson Bowden housebuilder reported annual profits of 223.3 million pounds up 25 percent which met forecasts. Novar building materials group profit falls 10% and it warns future earnings will be hit by the weak dollar Michael Page recruitment posted a 28 percent decline in annual profit to 23.5 million pounds but within analyst forecasts. They forecast an improvement in the UK, Asia Pacific and the Americas but persistent weakness in Europe. RAC reported a 24 percent acceleration in annual profits on Wednesday and said it expected continuing growth in 2004. BBA aviation services and specialist materials firm posted a better than expected five percent fall in full-year pre-tax profits. |
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Anglo American (F), Aviva (F), BBA Group (F), Domnick Hunter (F), Hardy Underwriting(F), HBOS(F), Isotron (F), Michael Page (F), Morse Holdings (F), Novar (F), Paddy Power (F), RAC (F), Reed Health (F), Spirent (F), TDG (F), Urbium (F), Wilson Bowden (F), Brambles Industries Dickinson Legg (I), Isotron (I), Morse Holdings (I), Reed Health (I), Aukett Group (AGM), Capcon Holdings (AGM), Leeds Group (AGM)9:30 UK Q4 GDP First Revision |
Big Lots (Q4) TJX Companies (Q4) Tiffany and Co (Q4) 13:00 Existing Home Sales (6.45M) 15:00 Alan Greenspan, testify's |
Altadis, Heineken |
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Ex Dividend: Amstrad PLC 1.5, Barclays PLC 13.45, Beale Plc 2.2, CRC Group Plc 4.5, Filtronic Plc 0.9, Heath (Samuel) & Sons Plc 5, Mountview Estates Plc 44, Oxford Instruments Plc 2.4, Whittard Of Chelsea Plc 1, Wintrust Plc 8.6 |
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ThePlayboy
- 25 Feb 2004 07:12
- 3 of 14
Key DOW Levels for 2/25
UP Above 10,625
DN Below 10,500
Sloping Channel
Dow forms downward sloping channel. Watch boundaries.
From prior commentary, "...We expect the index to trade within the wide range formed below this level. A downside break at 10,560 to indicate a further downtrend to its target level at 10,400..."
The Dow traded lower for most of the session today. It reversed off the intraday low and pushed higher the last hour, ending the day a little over 43 points in the red. The index has formed a clear downward sloping channel seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts.
Looking at the 60 Minute Chart, the index has trended lower off the key 10,750 resistance level, which has resulted in the formation of a downward sloping channel. We expect to see further downside movement below the upper trend line to its target level at 10,400.
Downward sloping channels typically imply an upside break. Therefore, an upside break at the upper trend line of the upside pennant channel at 10,585 will indicate a move higher to 10,650. A break there could push the index higher to resistance at 10,750.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow has formed a clear lower trend line across the lows of the upmove in the 5 minute chart at 10,550. Watch for a break or bounce at this level. A break at this level will indicate weakness at the Open.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we entered the market Short at 10,550, but stopped out at the same level for a breakeven trade. No other trades were triggered and we are still out of the market. We will watch 10,500 down, and 10,625 up, with 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P also traded lower today, and have formed clear upper trend lines. Look for continued downside movement. A break through the trend lines will indicate a move higher. *
Summary
The Dow traded lower today, breaking through support at 10,560. It quickly reversed off the low and traded higher the last hour of the session. Watch for further weakness below the upper trend line.
ThePlayboy
- 25 Feb 2004 07:13
- 4 of 14
R2 4564
R1 4530
PP 4504
S1 4470
S2 4443
Ftse close on Tue was below s1 but gained 1.8 in the auc, pos midweek turn? 2 day ftse chart targeting 4465 unless we brk up out of downtrend at 4505 to tgt 4530 which is the top of the downtrend off the Mon highs! Will be watching 4485 futs for a rev to the upside imho, all about the dow holding 10575 again on tue for wed direction!
Crocodile - 25 Feb 2004 07:39 - 5 of 14
Douggie - 25 Feb 2004 08:50 - 6 of 14
Melnibone - 25 Feb 2004 08:54 - 7 of 14
FTSE hasn't used the US falls to go much lower,
US markets have a 5 day losing streak that are
due a turn.
Barc dropped as expected so I've bought back for
a second bite of the cherry this morning. Might
take to Friday to make it up, but BARC is a stock
that I don't mind holding anyway.
Melnibone.
smithy - 25 Feb 2004 08:57 - 8 of 14
little woman
- 25 Feb 2004 09:30
- 9 of 14
Not staying, on snail line at the moment - taken me and hour just to get to this point!
Melnibone - 25 Feb 2004 10:08 - 10 of 14
Ref HBOS, Bloomberg are reporting that in an effort
to increase customers that they are reducing rates
to borrowers and increasing rates to savers.
This will decrease their margin.
This is a little unusual, banks usually try and screw
their customers by doing exactly the opposite. :-)
Perhaps the City is in a state of shock. ;-)
Melnibone.
seawatcher - 25 Feb 2004 11:21 - 11 of 14
Spot on! Reprogramming of banking sector analysis models now necessary!
sw
smithy - 25 Feb 2004 12:23 - 12 of 14
It's true that Halifax are launching a new table-topping savings account paying 6%. But it comes with strings attached - eg you have to sign up for a year and you can't invest more than 250 a month. To my mind this is a good move. It will get good publicity and there will be lots of takers.
Unlike you, I find movements in the price of banking stocks unfathomable. I work on the assumption that if you buy at a middling price you will make a profit some time in the not too distant future!
smithy
stockbunny
- 25 Feb 2004 14:40
- 13 of 14
on that other account and are you tied to it for any period of time -
like a(nother) year?? 6% is mighty high to offer when offering 5% alone on the
High Street I would think would bring in fair business right now...
Can sympathise Smithy - I too was looking for HBOS to go up-
still you can always look forward to the divi!!
Melnibone - 25 Feb 2004 16:24 - 14 of 14
more SHEL profits. Market isn't accelerating up
as much as I'd hoped. Maybe a pullback in the morning
if US breaks below 10600 again.
Time for a coffee and then play the S@P with my spreadbetting
account when it settles post Greenspan.
Melnibone.
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