S&P Futures

DR DOOM: House prices are set to crash, according to Tony Dye, the London fund manager who earned the nickname "Dr Doom" after he predicted a collapse in global stock markets in the 1990s. Dye was quoted in Tuesday's edition of the Financial Times as saying he expects a 30 percent drop in London house

EMI denied it had ever misreported its sales and contested media reports which said hip-hop record label Avatar had made the allegation against EMI in a U.S. law suit.

Canary Wharf, Canadian Brascan said it had extended its offer by 11 days to April 19.

BAA reported a 4.4 percent rise in passenger traffic for the year ended March 31, with a record 133.4 million passengers travelling through its airports. March passenger traffic rose 10.4 percent.

BAA (March traffic figures), Informa (EGM)

08:30 Feb house prices

10:00 BRC March Retail Sales Monitor

Merrill Lynch (Q1), Intel (Q1), Public Service Enterprise (Q1), Amsouth Bancorp (Q1), C R Bard (Q1), Dow Jones (Q1),

Johnson & Johnson (Q1), Linear Technology (Q3), Marshall & Ilsley (Q1), McDonald's (Q1), BB&T Corporation(Q1), State Street (Q1), Pepsi (Q1),

13:30 Business Inventories Feb 0.3%, 13:30 Retail Sales Mar 0.7% 19:00 Treasury Budget Mar $72.5B

Trading Thoughts For The Week Ahead  -  Sunday 11th April

A massive week of earnings ahead in the U.S at the start of the quarterly reporting season. Approx 70 companies in the S&P are scheduled to report and the anticipations are generally for good earnings but the rising tensions in the Middle East could temper any market gains. Some of the larger DOW companies reporting which could shake the market are Intel, Johnson & Johnson, McDonald's & IBM

In the U.K. it's the turn of the retailers such as Marks & Spencer, GUS, Burberry, Big Food Group, & JJB Sports to update the market next week. After the problems with BOOT's last month they need to reassure investors that consumer confidence remains healthy in the UK. Monday Markets closed

Tuesday

BAA should show that that the bounce in demand for long haul flights in February has continued and hopefully reassure the market that it can achieve 4% traffic growth for the year.

Canary Wharf takeover should come to an end with final bids received by today. This should force Brascan and a rival consortium including U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley to show their hands.

Wednesday

JJB Sports is expected to announce profits of 89.4m, up from 88.3m on sales of 930m. Sales should have been boosted following the Rugby World Cup and the Euro 2004 should give clothing sales a lift in the year ahead. However large sports goods hypermarkets such as Decathlon could point to troubled times ahead. Analysts are expecting good news from the chain's health clubs, with new sites thought to be hitting membership targets quickly and prompting it to look for bigger outlets to accommodate new members.  

Burberry releases a trading update following its news of buoyant sales over Christmas when third-quarter sales rose 15%.  The trading update should reveal that momentum has been maintained with the performance of its spring/summer collection being the key. However results will have to be good if it is to maintain its above-sector valuation of 18 times earnings.Marks & Spencer updates the market and fears are that the results could be very bad. A recent mid-season sale of its clothing range led to fears that they were overstocked and clothing sales were faltering. It's food divisions may show lower sales growth as the period does not include Easter. Credit Suisse First Boston reflected concerns about both its clothing and food units when it just downgraded the stock to "neutral" from "outperform" The company has just slashed prices by up to 50% on goods it sells over the Internet and announced major redundancies at its head office and financial services operations. Fund manager Gerrard said M&S is likely to rely on benefits from its improved sourcing programme and cost-cutting to achieve profits forecasts which are tipped to rise to 760m from 713.7m last year. St Ives releases interims following a fall in the share price recently. In January the group shut its Case-Hoyt operation in New York and said it would cost 7.6m to close the unit with a write down of 13m in goodwill. Associated British Foods owner of budget clothing outlet Primark as well as British Sugar, is expected to report a five percent rise in first-half profits . The clothing side of the business is expected to have traded well with analysts expecting half-year profits of 227m compared with 216m a year ago. Recently it said that trading in the early parts of the year had been running "satisfactorily ahead" of last year and added that further improvements are on the cards. NETeller plans to raise 35 million pounds from an AIM listing on Wednesday, which should value the company at 240 million pounds, one of the biggest technology flotation's of recent years.

Thursday

DFS Furniture release first half profits which may make bad news after the furniture retailer warned in February of slower consumer spending, as the UK outlook was uncertain. Aggressive promotional activity by rivals has already been cited by sofa retailer DFS as a reason for falling orders over the key Christmas period. The group is expected to post pre-tax profits of 24m against 26.1m a year ago. However interest is the takeover bid by the group's executive chairman. Lord Kirkham who has offered 445m for the chain he founded 35 years ago and it remains to be seen whether this has drawn out other bids. GUS updates on second-half trading after it said in January that growth had slowed at its key Argos chain. In addition the trading update will not include figures for Homebase which generates a large slice of sales over Easter.

Credit checking arm Experian should deliver good figures. Despite the slowdowns GUS is anticipated to deliver a 25% jump in annual profits to 807m.Sage releases a trading update which should confirm the gradual recovery in IT spending.Big Food Group owners of Iceland are expected to show signs of improvement after sales growth increased 2% over Christmas with maintained margins. The group is still looking to buy the convenience store chain Londis

Thoughts

I hope the trading withdrawal symptoms have not been to bad for you after the longest market close down of the year!

Last week the FTSE rose above 4,500 points for the first time in four weeks and closed up 2.4 percent this month but still below the year's high of 4,566. The 10 day Intraday chart above shows this rise with a 40 point wide channel in which the FTSE is currently testing support.  If this channel holds we may well have a rise at the start of next week to test the 12 months peak.

The U.S kicks off one of the busiest weeks in the opening of its quarterly reporting season. However after gains over the last 12 months many analysts believe companies will have to deliver very strong results in order to justify further gains. The escalating violence in Iraq may also reduce investing enthusiasm at the present time.

The Easter break has allowed me a little more time to play with this weeks chart. The main 250 points up channel is quite straightforward with an inner up channel approx 100 points wide. This gives a current range of between 4350 / 4600 with the FTSE currently more or less at the centre. However when it has broken into the upper channel previously it has risen to the top very quickly which indicates a rise to 4600 within the next 2 weeks.

At the Bristol traders meeting I was fascinated like many others by Tom Hougarrds Fibonacci time zone analysis of the US markets. This showed that peaks / major reversal points did tend to agree with the Fibonacci numbers. I must say I am a sceptical old trader who instantly discounts claims that the S&P may be influenced by the orbit of Uranus with a suitable repost. But Fib numbers are different as they can easily be programmed into trading computer systems. The more these systems are used the more accurate / predictable the prophesies from the software becomes.

As a test I took the 12 month FTSE chart and plotted the Fib time zones from many of the highs & lows. To my surprise it worked very well with further peaks & troughs matching the spacing of 2, 3, 5 , 8, 13 & 21 very well indeed. The next testing of the support and resistance using the current up channel according to these very rough calculations should be within the next 2 weeks.

I will certainly be taking more notice of them in the future!

If you are interested in reading further on Fibonacci / Elliot waves please  click here

As always I look forward to your thoughts and comments on the week ahead!  David (Crocodile) David@SnappyTrader.com  www.SnappyTrader.com

All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended.  Please do your own research.

Sunday Newspapers:  Shell was already warned 18 months ago about the dangers of linking management bonuses to oil and gas reserves, the NRC-Handelsblad newspaper revealed.

Mayflower executives created a 17m black hole by abusing an invoice-collection system, the companys administrator, Sunday Times

M&S Leading shareholders in Marks & Spencer have issued an ultimatum to chairman Luc Vandevelde: commit yourself fully to the company or quit.

SUNDAY TIMES Gresham takeover twist Rolls-Royce may build Boeing engines abroad Marks & Spencer Lucky Luc told to spend more time at M&S Whitehead Mann hunts growth in America and Asia Deloitte uncovers deliberate 17m invoice ploy at Mayflower Corporation Shop deal won backing for Canary Wharf bid Whitehead Mann Power struggle starts for crown of headhunting

mm02 Mobile company chief's share options are like telephone numbers

Forget the Big Spend: the future for M&S is pants Directors' Deals: Founder sees telecom's plus side Ashtead fails to fix weak controls Judgment Day: Should you buy shares in Kingspan Group? PIPEX Comms Should you take AIM at small companies? Judgment Day: Should you buy shares in Cattles? Sharewatch: Kenmare Resources  

SUNDAY TELEGRAPH Auditor warned Shell Marks & Spencer Group ditches 'drab' green Dennis to take Mayflower hit

Centrica, Group City comment

Amersham 'I'm a GE black belt' Air Partner The coy royal pilot M&S needs more than a makeover  

William Hill has had a spectacular run over the past 12 months, culminating in a place on the FTSE 100 index. Improved annual profits, changes to the law to allow fruit machines in betting shops and indications that it will begin a share buyback programme have helped to propel shares higher. But the prospect of new gaming companies such as casino operators entering the market sour the long-term outlook. Sell at 517p. Mothercare has enjoyed a trading revival over the past 12 months, enabling its share price to recover significantly. But chief executive Ben Gordon has warned of tougher comparatives going forward, while problems continue at the group's Daventry distribution centre. Sell at 329p. Lastminute.com (217p) has announced the departure of vice-chairman and major shareholder Clive Jacobs. From May 13 Jacobs will be free to sell his 3.9% stake, currently worth around 25m. There is mounting speculation he will dump a significant stake. Sell. Tesco (250 1/2p) should come out on top of the latest supermarket price war sparked by Asda last week. Keep buying.

OBSERVER BSkyB Premiership in 250m overseas TV rights deal Marks & Spencer bosses under siege EMAP Thirty bidders enter race to save Face from closure Royal Bank of Scotland Goodwin in line for 8m bonus

Whitehead Mann, The headhunter's queen bee

Will Rolls-Royce be rolled over? ITV Premiership in 250m overseas TV rights deal

MAIL ON SUNDAY MGM Mirage in Wembley bid war, Casino giant trumps Kerzner by 14m Marks & Spencer hit by downgrade Morrisons outstrips rivals... as Asda cuts its prices BAE Systems to cut 1,000 jobs, Lancashire losses confirmed SurfControl on crest of a wave, Invoices total up 21% Champagne figures for LVMH, Full-year targets revised More oil stocks shocks at Shell, Oman reserves hugely overstated Marshalls man for Thorntons, Builder takes chocolate chair New boss slams excesses at Boeing, Shocking profligacy of old guard Wal-Mart gets the thumbs down, Town votes to reject store plan

Yahoo! doubles first-quarter profits, Internet giant beats expectations Bankruptcy threat to housing boom, Mortgage lenders warn over debts Intel raided over 'unfair practices',Swoop on chip maker's Japan offices Dell lifts revenue forecast to $11bn, Overseas sales boost computer giant Eurotunnel lenders slam rebels, Creditors form war council Jackpot for UK casinos, Reforms hit global players Mayflower fears raised a year ago, Pirc asked governance questions Canary bidders made to sing, Takeover Panel sets deadline JP Morgan brightens Sky

INDEPENDENT WPP, ITV tries to calm City over fears of ITV-style bonanza for Sorrell

M&S: St Michael will hope the City has the patience of a saint

SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY Sky finally puts its house in order with switch to US Profitable Megabus is just the ticket for Stagecoach Baillie Gifford consolidates Asian presence with 1.6bn Japan fund Radice under pressure to deliver and revive fortunes at M&S Ua Group Farmers step up interest in merger for auction group

Lloyds TSB, New bank role

Alliance and Leicester In the uncertain world of the stock market, it makes sense to use protection Scottish and Newcastle sells city plot of land for 10m New Sainsbury's chief plans big changes

INVESTORS CHRONICLE  Turning Penny Shares into Pounds': Virtue Broadcasting (VTB), Cater Barnard (CRB), Carbo (CAB), Stanelco (SEO), Vianet (VIA), Digital Classics (DTC), Healthcare (HCEG), iTrain (IRN), MOS International (MOI), Chelford (CHR), Croma (CMG), CYC (CYC), Fundamental-E (FEI), Hereward Ventures (HEV), Multi (MLT), NetB2B2 (NEB), Prime People (PRP), Top Ten (TTH).Tips: Buy Xansa (XAN) at 86p, Molins (MLIN) at 321p, Straight (STT) at 101p, Birse (BIE) at 15p, Albemarle & Bond (ABM) at 101p. Sell Bradford & Bingley (BB) at 295p.Updates: Buy, Northern Rock (NRK) and HIT Entertainment (HTE). Hold, DFS Furniture (DFS) and Coral Products Synergy Healthcare (CRU) is fairly priced.Company Results: Sell Johnston Group (JHT). Buy Personal Group (PGH), Havelock Europa (HVE), Antonov (ATV).

SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week: Buy Hunting (HTG) at 127.5p - Earthport (EPO) at 2.62p.Updates: Buy Melrose Resources (MRS), iTrain (IRN) and Clarity Commerce Solutions (CCS). Sell Aerobox (ARX) and Sopheon (SPE), Hold Tissue Science Laboratories (TSL).Analysis: Ramco Energy (ROS), Arena Leisure (ARE), Torotrak (TRK).