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The major US indexes traded near unchanged ahead of Friday's jobless report. Brown & Jackson replaces finance chief, De La Rue names new CEO William Hill betting shop chain, reported a big jump in annual profits topping expectations to 170.8 million and made an encouraging start to 2004 with gross win up 17 percent in the first eight weeks. Rexam beverage can maker reported a rise in annual profit above analysts' forecasts of 273 million pounds and said it looked forward to another good year. P&O returned to profit with 80 million pounds but said it was reviewing its ferries business, where trading was tough. "Recent increases in French tobacco duty have had an impact on on-board sales, particularly on the Short Sea. Freight carryings and rates are also down on the prior year Yule Catto & Co Speciality chemicals firm reported annual profits of 59.9 million at the lower end of expectations and said it was confident of future growth despite uncertainties over currency and raw materials. Ultraframe  <WARNING> conservatory maker warned investors that second-half trading was likely to be volatile and that full-year profit and sales may fall below its expectations.

Calendar: United Kingdom	United States (GMT)	Europe & World (GMT
Country and Metropolitan (I), Eidos (I), Arriva (F), Axis-Shield (F), Fayrewood (F), Hunting (F), Hydro Intl (F), Kidde (F), Mowlem J (F), P & O (F), Rexam (F), Senior Engineering (F), Tarsus Group (F), Wellington Underwriting (F), William Hill (F), Yule Catto (F) BoE`s MPC interest rate announcement	Citizens Communications (Q4), Dillard's (Q4), Staples (Q4), Symbol Technologies (Q4) 1.30pm Initial Claims 1.30pm Productivity-Rev. 3.00pm Factory Orders	Rexel (F) LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (F) Vallourec (F), Alten (F)

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US Zone

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Currency Calc

Updated 3/3 for Thursday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 3/4
UP Above 10,620
DN Below 10,550

Holding Above 10,550
Dow trades down to key 10,550 level, holds at this level.

From prior commentary, "...the lower trend line is a very clear fulcrum in the chart. A break of this line will lead to weakness...Look for the Dow to remain above 10,550, but also to hold below key resistance at 10,750. The index will likely stay within this range until a clear and solid break occurs..."
The Dow opened the session weak this morning and traded down precisely to the major 10,550 level, as seen in the 60 Minute Chart. As we mentioned yesterday, this is a very clear level in the charts, which, if broken, could lead to a sharp drop in the market.

The Daily Chart shows that the index continues to hold above the major lower trend line, which has held up for over two months now. If the index does not break 10,550 tomorrow, look for the Dow to begin to reverse higher off this line. An upside break through 10,620 would confirm such strength and could lead to a push toward 10,700.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a tight consolidation at the highs of the 5 Minute Chart from 10,580 to 10,610. An upside break is implied, but watch for a break either way, as such would lead to direction tomorrow morning.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we are still Short the Dow from 10,642 and will move stops down to 10,620 for tomorrow's market. We will stay Short below 10,550 and will look to enter Longs above 10,620; using 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each mirrored the Dow today, as each index reversed off the lows to edge higher in the afternoon. Look for continued movement within the respective ranges in the 60 Minute Charts. *

Summary

The Dow hugged the flatline today, as the index gained just 2 points for the session. The index held firmly at the major lower trend line at 10,550, seen in the Daily Chart. If the index holds above this line tomorrow, expect the index to trend higher toward 10,700, especially if 10,620 is crossed.

Morning all

Morning all,

Looking for a mild upswing within the trading range
today until we get the initial jobless at 1330 Hrs.

This will then set the tone for the US and the Eurozone.
If they are good it should give a positive impetus
as traders pre-empt the Big One tomorrow when we
get the unemployment rate and jobs created.

Melnibone.

SKP is starting to pique my interest again.
It's come down to the 59/60p support on moderate
to lowish volume.

Anyone else got a view or information?

Melnibone.

Melnibone

Still a long suffering SKP holder (LTBH) (from 36p initially with several adds along the way - the last at 66p). The next 4 weeks are going to be interesting with SKP to say the least. At xmas, they announced three new contracts would be signed in the first quarter of this year (which were supposed to happen last year) - that leaves them 4 weeks tops to announce. They announced that they turned down contracts last year on the basis of too low a price. At the end of the quarter ie end march they will release the results for last year which we know are not going to be pretty! If the results are announced and yet again they disappoint on the contracts then I believe that will be the final straw for a lot of long term holders (me included) and the price will head sharply south towards 40p. The flip of the coin is that if the contracts are announced and contain the main launch of Depomorphine then the share price could head towards 100p. There is still a fair level of rumour around on them being a takeover target, mainly based on Fidelity having built up a 15% stake. This is going to be quite volatile upto the end of the month, I guess we may see a climb before the results in anticipation of the contract announcements with either this continuing on results day or a bloodbath depending on the announcement.

All IMHO and any views appreciated

Thanks for that comprehensive reply, Fundamentalist.

If this level holds, we're looking at a 10% return, back
up to the next resistance level at 66/67p imho.

Melnibone.

Is that a chart based/support and resistance view? My gut feel is the next move will be a jump one way or other come results/contract announcements though at the mo I would just be happy if it could find a support level and stick to it.

Just a chart based view of where it seems to find
buyers/sellers to balance the price.

If poor results are already known, wouldn't this be in the price
and explain the fall from 80p?
That's a 25% drop already.

Melnibone.

Had to take my profit on LGEN and HSBA this morning
that I bought previously.

Moved a mental take profit stop up as usual to protect it
and they came down again.

I think they are going higher, but I must maintain discipline
and stick to my trading rules. Without plans and discipline
you are trading on hope, and hope can wipe you out.

Melnibone.

I think the results are priced in but not announcing the forward contracts would be likely to take this even further lower - the management has little credibility left (due to numerous missed promises) and this could be the last straw to many

hello
can anyone suggest a web site that supplies a live pre-open DOW (INDU) chart please.
I use prophet.net for the daily chart but theydon't offer this facility as yet.
thanks

It shows that discipline works. You should always have
a plan, stick to it and trade it.

HSBA has now dropped another 8p below my sold price,
and I thought it was going further up. If I hadn't
maintained discipline and took the profit, I would now
be sat here in hope, watching it melt away.

Melnibone.

So pleased had to share the grin!!
My Bob the builder (CRY) has come good today, great results
ahh it is so nice when you put faith/cash plus research of course (lol)
into a firm and it comes good!!!
(OK I know it may not last, but it's great for now!!)

Melnibone,
Excuse these words from a beginner but you are constantly talking such alot of sense. If everyone were to stick by your code we should all be wealthier.
Don't want to embarrass you!!
Actually read your last post, looked at HSBA chart and bought a few long CFD's at 847.2.
Thanks for all posts,
sw

It's very kind of you to say so, seawatcher.

But give yourself a pat on the back.
You've done the research, made the decision, and
are now sat in profit deciding when to take it.

Nice position to be in, well done.

Melnibone.

DAX didn't stay above 4100 for very long, did it?

Lot of nervousness about at these high levels.
Any drop that starts to get momentum behind it
could be quick and severe.

Melnibone.

If the US doesn't make a move higher in the next
30mins, there is the possibility of the FTSE taking
some profits before the close.

If it does this, I may consider opening some new
longs to cover US upside after the FTSE close which
would result in a gap open higher tomorrow morning.
All depends on where we finish.

I can cover any US upside/downside this evening with
S@P spreadbets.

Melnibone.

Doesn't look like I'm going to get the opportunity
to add to my FTSE longs, so I'll just have to play
any movement on the S@P.

Melnibone.