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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 8th March (LLOY)
Crocodile - 07 Mar 2004 11:58
| UK PreMarket Futures | FTSE -1 | DAX -5 | DOW +1 | S&P -0.3 | Nasdaq +2 |
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EADS swung to a larger-than-expected net profit in 2003, as a strong fourth quarter at its Airbus plane-making unit and a drop in charges offset losses in its space division Lloyds reported annual profit ahead of forecasts and said it had decided against buying back shares to give itself flexibility for acquisitions and maintained its full-year dividend at 34.2 pence a share. Profit was 4.35 billion pounds up from 2.61 beating the average forecast profit of 4.27 billion pounds IMI engineering beat forecasts with an 8.4 percent rise in profits to 142.6 million pounds and said there was no change to the trend of modest improvement in some markets. Taylor Nelson market research firm said its profit rose 13 percent to 32.4 million pounds, and said it expects its markets to improve in 2004. Travis Perkins building materials reported 2003 profits 10 million below forecasts despite a 18.2 percent rise to162.7 million pounds but said 2004 had started well and it was well placed to make further progress during the year. Bovis Homes reported a forecast beating 17.5 percent rise in annual profits and said the new year had started well. John Wood oil drilling services firm reported flat annual profits in line with forecasts at $137.2 , and repeated a warning that delays to new deepwater projects would hold it back in 2004. The company also announced a new contract win in the Gulf of Mexico. |
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ICM Computer (I), Microgen (I), Town Centre Securities (I), BioProgress (F), Bovis Homes (F), Candover Investment (F), Clinical Computing (F), Fisher (James) & Sons (F), IDN Telecom (F), IMI (F), Intertek Testing Services (F), John Wood Group (F), Lloyds TSB (F), Taylor Nelson (F), Travis Perkins (F), WSP Group (F): Feb PPI (09:30) - ODPM Jan House Prices (09:30) |
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EADS EADS NV(F) Veolia Environnement SA (F) |
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Crocodile - 07 Mar 2004 11:58 - 3 of 31
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Sunday Newspapers
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SUNDAY TIMES Retail star returns to Moss Bros Regulator to examine BT split Lloyd's to report 1 billion profits Shell fails to calm City fears ITV duo face the chop over Green's payoff Psion hits back at its critics Stagecoach rides into Connex line furore Sharewatch: SMG Agenda: William Lewis: Radice revs up to drive M&S into the unknown Britain's 50 most unloved companies, AWG Eircom heavyweights dine out on biggest cheques in town |
The Andrew Davidson Interview: Chorion, TV tycoon who lives like a lord Judgment Day: Should you buy shares in Nestor Healthcare Scottish bank profits up, Lloyds TSB Tesco checks out DVDs Working space, Chorion Should you buy shares in Irish Continental Group? Lord Alli's working day, Chorion Sharewatch: Jarvis Vital Statistics, Chorion IAWS's bakery profits rise Helical Bar, Property boss builds up his holding |
| Nestor healthcare recruitment group has had a trying time, seeing its shares rising to more than 600p during the 1990s, but falling to 196p at close of business on Friday. Investment bank Schroders said the group's problems have not all been self-inflicted. The creation by the NHS of an in-house nursing agency cut Nestor's turnover by 16% over the last year, but the group has diversified elsewhere. It has also appointed a new finance director and chairman. If the management cannot get things right, someone else is likely to offer an alternative financial approach. Buy. | |
| SUNDAY TELEGRAPH Psion holders rebel over Symbian Investor threat to DFS deal Lonmin review includes sale option Shell board shocked FCUK shrugs off boycott ITV directors face axe over Green's 15m pay-off |
City comment: Pitman is the pits, ITV Serco's bob-a-jobber D-Day for Morrison, Safeway Shell's seismic shock |
| Cairn Energy have done well in recent weeks after it announced a transformational discovery in its Rajasthan development in India. Shares were 255p just over two years ago, which means investors who bought the stock then would have gained more than 160% at the latest price of 674.1p. Nevertheless, with a second well being drilled, there is more upside to be had. Keep buying. | |
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OBSERVER GKN boss says no to BAE Now Shell faces US legal storm Mytravel directors get massive payouts They think it's all over at Manchester United. It's not Sainsbury United Prosser in bid to salvage reputation |
Sainsbury Eyes on a crown Shell Transport City claims its biggest trophy yet Prayer on a G-string at Marks On the nose with Coral, William Hill Shareholders put the boot in, Shell Transport |
| Taylor Woodrow offers excellent growth prospects. Last week, the group's pre-tax profits rose 32% to 324m with a dividend* increase of 20.3%. Broker Merrill Lynch points to 25m in merger savings following the company's acquisition last year of fellow housebuilder Wilson Connolly, otherwise known as Wilcon. The company has in the past two years moved out of commercial property and wider construction and is now a clean housebuilder at a time when housing shortages are protecting bumper margins. | |
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MAIL ON SUNDAY Enterprise Inns poised for Footsie Pub firm to move up with Antofagasta Brothers top up stake in Odeon chain Hands takes a pay cut Banker leaves cash in Terra Firma Happy new year for estate agency, Countrywide Assured Default fears on 1.7bn Argentina IMF debt expected Ministry of Sound Nightclub empire runs up 5m loss Hemscott dangers scare away fund managers Former S&N pubs sold in 500m deal Triumph for Bloor Holdings |
Scandal of Shell's oil bonus, More heads may roll Carlton trio could be forced to quit over 27m pay-offs Safeway through the Footsie checkout Deadline for Telegraph offers the 23 March Morrisons fuels the war on prices Clash at bank as chief quits, ABN Amro Rebels in 'bloody' battle for the tunnel Abramovich facing huge back-tax bill HSBC loses 22.6m on HQ sale P&O boosted by stake in partner |
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Hemscott survived the dotcom crash but now Marlborough UK Equity Growth fund's has sold its 500,000-share secret stake, equivalent to 1.56%, in January. It had 6.1m in the bank but last year but burnt through 1.2m and Investors will have to wait till 2005 for a profit, forecast at 300,000. That values the firm at 46.5 times future earnings. |
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INDEPENDENT Leeds Utd 10m in debt to taxman and Customs Green's 15m could cost ITV far more |
Lloyds TSB, The Week Ahead: City frets over Black Horse payout Marconi Corporation The Lowdown: Toughest of the tough talkers |
| Mowlem remains a solid buy and is, at Friday's close of 205.25p, looking cheap. Mowlem released impressive full-year results last week, with a 2.5bn order book and an above-expectations 37% profits rise to 45.2m. There are concerns about whether the group can repeat the impressive rise in profits, helped by selling investments in two Government projects. But Mowlem stands a good chance of getting in on the act with rebuilding contracts in Iraq, with the US tipped to name winners of the second round of contracts at the end of March or early next month. The signs so far look good. | |
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SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY Shell investors demand more changes Transport Lloyds TSB profits will boost total to 24bn UK banks should learn the lesson of HSBC and go global |
Fighting talk, BAE Systems Lloyds TSB to beat rivals with 64% profits rise Time to come out of his Shell |
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INVESTORS CHRONICLE Tips: Buy - National Grid (NGT), Kensington (KGN), Systems Union (SUG), Oystertec (OYS) and Stanley Gibbons (SGI). Sell - Skyepharma (SKP).Tips Updates: M&S (MKS) (keep buying) - TT Electronics (TTG) (keep buying) - Hardman (HNR) (keep buying) - Cardpoint (CASH) (buy) - MyTravel (MT) (sell).Company Results: Buy: HBOS (HBOS) - Legal and General (LGEN) - Provident Financial (PFG) - Gallaher (GLH) - Acambis (ACM) - Estates & General (ESGN), Sell: Trinity Mirror (TNI) - Morse (MOR) - LogicaCMG (LOG) - Aggreko (AGK) - Hilton (HG) - Rentokil Initial (RTO). |
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SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week: Buy Sibir Energy (SBE) at 27p - Daejan Holdings (DJAN) at 23.37.5p - Hampson Industries (HAMP) at 23.75p - Statpro (SOG) at 37p - James Fisher (FSJ) at 311.5p.Updates: Hold Pennant International (PEN) and Stanley Gibbons (SGI), Buy Tadpole Technology (TAD). Take profits at Retail Decisions (RTD). |
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New
Fears For Faltering American Economy: There are renewed fears over jobs in the
United States after the latest figures showed that just 21,000 new jobs were
created in February.
First-time buyers are being priced out of 80% of British towns. The Halifax said
owning a property in 531 of the UK's 667 postal towns is now out of reach for
people on average salaries for their region.
GORDON Brown should consider hiking taxes and the Bank of England must continue
to lift interest rates, the International Monetary Fund said yesterday.
STERLING rocketed against the dollar yesterday as it emerged the United States
economy is still failing to create new jobs, prompting Wall Street to delay its
expectations of rate hikes at the Federal Reserve.
Germany's first IPO in year and a half ends in shamblesCrocodile - 07 Mar 2004 11:59 - 4 of 31
Pugugly - 07 Mar 2004 14:20 - 5 of 31
Please keep up the good work - Much appreciated.
Crocodile - 07 Mar 2004 14:33 - 6 of 31
Had problems with the FTSE company complaining I had registered www.ftsedow.com. The new site is www.snappytrader.com
D.
bartandlisa - 07 Mar 2004 15:41 - 7 of 31
ThePlayboy
- 07 Mar 2004 15:59
- 8 of 31
MONDAYS FTSE PP
R2 4590
R1 4568
PP 4545
S1 4524
S2 4500
Ftse close below Fri pp! 2 day ftse chart broken to the downside on Fri but a swift bounce off the low, pos uptrend again unless 4540 is broken imho! No doubt banks will decide direction with lloy reporting
WEEKLY FTSE PP
R2 4599
R1 4573
PP 4540
S1 4515
S2 4482
For next week a possible bearish wedge forming, looking to 4530 down and 4570 up for a break! Tgt down s2 imho, although pattern is bearish ftse very strong and Dow holding 10520, until a decision is made either way will be trading the ranges, but a breakout of the range should occur this week as its running out of room!
ThePlayboy
- 07 Mar 2004 15:59
- 9 of 31
Key DOW Levels for 3/8
UP Above 10,620
DN Below 10,550
Volatile Day
Dow trades in wild swings, ends day slightly higher.
From prior commentary, "...The consolidation has formed at the lows of the recent decline, thereby implying further weakness to come..."
The Dow traded in quite a wild and volatile fashion today, as the day was filled with rallies, declines, and even gaps, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The index eventually ended the day slightly higher by just 8 points.
Looking at the Daily and 60 Minute Charts show that the Dow continues to hug the major lower trend line of the wide range at 10,550. Look for the index to continue trading sideways above this line until a break occurs. A downside break through 10,550 will lead to a sharp decline, while an upside push through 10,620 should lead to strength Monday. Watch this range closely.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow is holding at a clear lower trend line formed beneath the lows of the 1 Minute Chart. A break of the line at 10,595 will indicate weakness Monday morning.
Medium Term Dow
The Dow saw unusual action today, as the index gapped up in the middle of the morning past our stop of 10,600 to 10,631, which is where we covered our position, giving us an 11 point gain. No other trades were triggered and we are now out of the market. We will watch 10,550 down, and 10,620 up, with 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P each filled morning gaps, followed by volatile sideways trading. Each index has remained within a clear, but volatile range, which we will watch closely Monday. *
Summary
The Dow trades in wild swings today, ending the day slightly higher for the day. Volatility has increased significantly in the last two weeks, which could be a precursor to a future move. Watch 10,550 down, and 10,620 up Monday.
Melnibone - 07 Mar 2004 16:31 - 10 of 31
Lot of folk going to be watching the range for a break
one way or the other this week.
S@P and FTSE have both put another 'X' on the P@F chart.
Unsure whether this is new leg up or a Bull trap. If you
are waiting to sell then it's known that these new X's are
where folk are watching to buy for a move higher. So where
better to sell and get top dollar for your wares?
Need to be careful here, there's been a big one year run-up
with hardly any retrace to really speak of.
Wednesday should be interesting. Thers's some big companies
paying divis. Lately it's been a case of buy on the rumour and
sell on the fact, and folk have just been taking the divi and
booking profits from the share price appreciation.
HBOS, RBS, RTR, RR, AAM, RTZ, have all had good run-ups lately.
If that little lot go down, on top of the divi that will be taken
from their share price, that'll be a fair few FTSE points to come
off before you start.
As TP said, definately a week to be aware of the ranges.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 07 Mar 2004 21:45
- 11 of 31
Just got back from the Share Club meeting and I have instructions to buy some shares first thing in the morning (for the long term portfolio) as we have quite a bit of spare cash (sold 2 holdings since the last meeting, at a profit). Plus a third buy if a share drops to a certain price! Will let you know what they are once I've carried out the instructions!
Crocodile - 08 Mar 2004 07:41 - 12 of 31
Stan
- 08 Mar 2004 07:46
- 13 of 31
PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS
Results
Profit before tax increased by 1,730 million, or 66 per cent, to
4,348 million.
Profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1,464 million, or
82 per cent, to 3,254 million.
Earnings per share increased by 82 per cent to 58.3p.
Post-tax return on average shareholders' equity 38.5 per cent.
Total capital ratio 11.3 per cent, tier 1 capital ratio 9.5 per cent.
Final dividend of 23.5p per share, making a total of 34.2p for the
year (2002: 34.2p).
Results, excluding changes in economic assumptions, investment variance and
profit on sale of businesses
Profit before tax decreased by 126 million, or 4 per cent, to 3,380
million.
Earnings per share decreased by 6 per cent to 41.5p.
Economic profit increased by 4 per cent to 1,553 million.
Post-tax return on average shareholders' equity 27.4 per cent.
Key achievements
A new strategic focus on organic growth has been implemented, and a
number of non-core overseas businesses have been sold.
The Group has improved its market share in many key product areas,
including credit cards, personal loans, bank savings, and UK life and
pensions.
Excluding the impact of disposals, customer lending grew by 10 per
cent to 135 billion and customer deposits increased by 6 per cent to 116
billion.
The rate of decline in the Group's net interest margin has slowed.
Strict cost control has been maintained. Excluding the impact of
acquisitions and the customer redress provision, expenses decreased by 1
per cent.
Asset quality remains strong.
Profit before tax from UK Retail Banking and Mortgages, excluding the
impact of the provision for customer redress, increased by 21 per cent, as
a result of 9 per cent growth in income and flat costs.
New business profitability in Scottish Widows increased by 13 per cent, as
a result of market share growth and an improved new business margin.
In Wholesale and International Banking, positive results are emerging
from the improved co-ordination between our Corporate and Financial Markets
businesses.
Capital ratios significantly improved. Scottish Widows remains on
track to pay a 2004 dividend to Lloyds TSB.
Pick the bones out of that then.
little woman
- 08 Mar 2004 08:32
- 14 of 31
Purchased WSH & JRVS first thing for the investment club. JRVS took off straight after my purchase!
We also wanted to purchase SHEL, but hoped with all the bad press the price would go down, but it hasn't. Limit order entered, in case it does drop back before the next meeting otherwise, more money to spend then, and reveiw the purchase then.
little woman
- 08 Mar 2004 09:22
- 15 of 31
Melnibone - 08 Mar 2004 09:33 - 16 of 31
Sold 33% of my SKP's this morning to lock some profit in.
I like to set the tone for the week, hopefully, by starting
off on the right foot.
I wonder if we'll come out of this 10 point Ftse trading
range before big daddy US wakes up and gets out of bed
to see what the children have been getting up to. :-)
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 08 Mar 2004 09:49 - 17 of 31
Greenspan and Snow won't like that with their US deficit.
Lucky they don't have any oil fields, or the FED would get
Bush to go in and remove their weapons of mass destruction. ;-)
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 08 Mar 2004 10:04 - 18 of 31
If I was in your position, with club money to invest, I wouldn't
be in a rush.
This market is winding itself up for a biggish move IMHO.
You have already covered the upside with your buys.
Why not keep some powder dry to take advantage of any
opportunity that may arise.
The market seldom rockets up with nil profit taking or retracements,
but it does tank rather well as the fear feeds on itself.
Absolutely down to you of course, just adding my tuppence worth
for your consideration.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 08 Mar 2004 10:23
- 19 of 31
Our money is split into 2 portfolios, with different brokers. One I can do what I like with, (short term) and the other we agree as a club (long term).
The long term portfolio buys are based on div income - so once we buy we don't plan to sell them. However, as each share has gone into profit I put a stop loss at just below S3, and in the last year so far, only one stop loss has actually kicked in, the others have just kept going up!
I normally wait to see if the spreads improves, but this morning the L2 on JRVS made me think, I shouldn't wait, so I didn't. So far the share is about 15p up already. (We would have been happy for it to take a couple of months to go up that much!)
cilohaekib - 08 Mar 2004 10:24 - 20 of 31
Melnibone - 08 Mar 2004 10:32 - 21 of 31
I don't fancy the idea of all your lady members sitting around
sticking pins in little Melnibone effigies if the market
zooms to 5000. :-)
Melnibone.
little woman
- 08 Mar 2004 10:33
- 22 of 31
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