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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 15th March (PTP)     

Crocodile - 14 Mar 2004 11:58

UK PreMarket Futures FTSE -8 DAX -10 DOW -15 S&P -2.2 Nasdaq -3.5

1 Day

2 Day

 5 Day

UK News

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Gold/Bond Pivots Markets  Futures Translate
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1 Day 2 Day 5 Day  US News

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S&P Futures

Nikkei  +155    Hang Seng +94  Asia News

DAX CAC  Euro News
News: Sorry Your browser is not java capable weather.gif

House price inflation has accelerated over the past month although house prices at the top end of the property market are falling dramatically

UK futures turn negative

Imperial Tobacco said the group was on track to meet its own expectations for the financial year

Profile Therapeutics maker of inhaled drug delivery systems 6 month losses fell to 1.79 million pounds and first-half revenues rose 13 percent to 7.1m

Headlam Group floor coverings distributor reported a 9% growth in annual profit to 32.6 million pounds and said it looked forward to another year of growth.

Spirax-Sarco engineering maker of temperature and pressure controls, met forecasts with a 10 percent rise in 2003 profit to 44.6 million pounds and expected profit growth this year.

BAE rules out Alvis counterbid ..

ukf.gif Calendar: United Kingdom
usf.gif United States (GMT)
euro.gif  Europe & World (GMT

 Primary Health (I), Alea Group (F), Headlam Group (F), Medical Solutions (F), Profile Therapeutics (F), ROK Property Solutions (F), Roxboro (F), Spirax (F)

Cintas Corporation, Dollar General Corp Tenet Healthcare Corp

13:30 NY Empire State Index 14:30 Capacity Utilization 14:30 Industrial Production

Hochtief AG, Thales, Lagardere Groupe

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

Data

Calendar

US Zone

HTML Edit

Currency Calc

Crocodile - 14 Mar 2004 11:59 - 3 of 22

Sunday Newspapers

 

sundaypaper.gifDay trades soar and shares dive, Private investors were again piling into shares as the Footsie boomed. But now the question is being asked - is the party over already? The number of shares traded by private investors in January rocketed by 57% on last year, while last month the volume was 77% up on February last year. Click here for the full story

Shell: The FSA has launched an urgent investigation into whether Shell broke stock market rules by not telling investors earlier that it had overstated its oil reserves by a fifth. The oil giant faces huge fines if it is found guilty of market abuse.AstraZeneca's major shareholders are pressing for more boardroom changes.

THE Budget: 1% VAT increase predicted by experts as a 50/50 chance. It is thought Gordon Brown will be looking at ways to raise extra revenue, and having ruled out income tax rises he is expected to turn his attention to VAT or stamp duty. Some say that it is not thought that he will increase National Insurance until after the next election as it was a manifesto commitment. Yet if he did bring the National Insurance threshold in line with the earnings level for higher rate tax it would gain 459 a year in tax for anyone who earned more than 35,000. The Chancellor is also expected to turn his attention to stamp duty which would enable him to raise extra revenue, while claiming he was acting to cool the housing market down.

SUNDAY TIMES Ireland: Cubic calls for three seats on Man United board Mayflower Corporation Secret approach to ailing British bus maker, Lapthorne approached over top job at BAE General Dynamics tanks outgun BAE to buy Alvis Anglo Irishs FitzPatrick to join Aer Lingus board Hornby starts to pick up speed with expansion Cookson to slim down by selling precious-metals division Indigo Vision shares surge for web firm Canary Wharf Reichmann: is he a hero or a villain? Canary Wharf bid pledge

Shell Transport

Shot in the arm for science Amersham Agenda: William Lewis: Give Bses stock exchange bid a fair hearing London Stock Exchange Enterprise boldly goes into Footsie Enterprise Inns Directors' Deals: Music bosses find sanctuary in sell-off Sanctuary Group Judgment Day: Should you buy shares in Spring? Spring Group Special Report: King of the turf raises stakes Manchester United Why Shell has clammed up  

SUNDAY TELEGRAPH Cox in talks to buy Highway Insurance New chairman for BAE

BAE Systems Hollick tunes into TV Tanks on BAE's lawn

Canary Wharf, Morgan Stanley has revealed it was in "detailed discussions" about changing the structure of its 1.6billion bid and possibly raising it, to fend off Brascan's rival offer.

Baker Greggs Amid fears that many companies will fail to meet earnings expectations, investors have turned to more defensive sectors such as food. Baker Greggs has just achieved a 12th year of growth and shares look good value at 3430p. The advertising industry is seen as an attractive long-term investment as it often grows faster than the world economy. While WPP shares have fallen recently - to 576 1/2p -- profits should increase by 47 million this year. Buy. Xaar, Upbeat results are expected from printing technology specialist Xaar on Wednesday. The group already boasts Toshiba as a major customer and could unveil another significant client at the same time as the results. Shares are a buy at 56 1/2p. Radstone Technology, Defence experts forecast more takeovers after General Dynamics' 309 million offer for tank maker Alvis. Targets could include electronics group Radstone Technology, which should also benefit from more defence spending. Buy at 368 1/2p.

OBSERVER News in brief WPP FSA probes scandal of 'missing' Shell reserves Amec can show Iraq the West meant it

Man Utd to bring critics on board Bad habits at the Abbey

MAIL ON SUNDAY Now FSA probes scandal at Shell Symbian software boss may quit, Levin 'disappointed' at Psion sale Standard Life denies delay tactic Littlewoods profits leap to 210m Retail boost for Barclay brothers

Psion CEO uses his company personal holding to swing Symbian vote. Pressure on AstraZeneca board

TV fat cats 'safe' over 27m payoffs

Labour to admit Equitable failures, Showdown may lead to compensation BAE pulls back from tanks bid, Alvis to fall into US hands 445m offer for retailer DFS doomed, Investors demand 450p-a-share New twist in the Telegraph saga, Black to appeal against sale ban Day trades soar and shares dive, Have the amateurs got it wrong? 100m racetrack plan is under threat, Planestation may go on sale Moss Bros braced for share raid, Clothes group in takeover speculation

 

Moss Bros is bracing itself for a major sharebuying raid by fashion entrepreneur Kevin Stanford. It comes amid growing takeover speculation and a sudden souring of relations between the company and its biggest shareholder, Shami Ahmed

INDEPENDENT  Bates bounces back and eyes up Leeds Watts may lose his Shell pension

The Week Ahead: What now for Morrisons and its hard-won prize? Daily Mail & General Trust Independent on Sunday

SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY  Rolls-Royce deal safeguards 90 jobs at revitalised MB Aerospace Patience is a virtue as Cairn's oil strike rewards investors ITV non-executive director defies calls to quit amid payoff furore

Weir Group, UK to step up stake in rebuilding Iraq Candover to sell 128m stake in Inveresk Research John Wood Group, UK to step up stake in rebuilding Iraq

SUNDAY EXPRESS  Marks & Spencer is rated a buy at 283p as broker JP Morgan remains upbeat on the retailer's long-term prospects for its home division and near-term prospects for the troubled clothing business. Bovis Homes is well positioned for solid growth, according to brokerage Arbuthnot. Results last week were ahead of expectations and the company is forecasting annual volume growth of 10% this year. Buy at 530p

The Business Hampson Industries is viewed as a speculative buy - at 25p - by Andrew Hore of Durlacher's Aim bulletin. The group concentrates on aerospace and engineering but should benefit if its markets recover faster than expected.

INVESTORS CHRONICLE Tips: Associated British Foods (ABF) a fundamentally well-run business. Isoft (IOT) group did better than expected in the key NHS IT market. Oxford Biomedica (OXB) a weak player with a limited licensing pipeline and a poor record. Connaught (CNT) a strong order book and its core business is getting help from new legislation.*Landround (LDR) recent drift in the share price is a good chance for new investors to take a look at this travel promotions company. Lincat (LCT) strong product range is capturing market share, underpinning a solid dividend yield.

SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week: Buy iTrain (IRN) at 10.75p - Ocean Power Technologies (OPT) at 94.5p - Cyc Holdings (CYC) at 1.85p - Burren Energy (BUR) at 205p - Pursuit Dynamics (PDX) (long-term) at 115.5p.

Updates: Take profits at UK Coal (UKC). Hold K3 Business Technology (KBT). Sell GB Group (GBG).

Water's Tide Rises on Dividend Prospects: Dee Valley (DVW) - Pennon (PNN) - Bristol (BWG) - Kelda (KEL) - Northumbrian (NWG) - AWG (AWG) - Severn Trent (SVT).

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

ThePlayboy - 14 Mar 2004 13:29 - 4 of 22

MONDAYS FTSE PP

R2 4531
R1 4499
PP 4437
S1 4405
S2 4343

Ftse close just under Fri pp! Brk up on fri out of 2 day(pos short closing) downtrend with a target of 4485, a brk of 4450 will lead to weakness imho!



draw?startDate=14%2F12%2F03&period=3M&pl



WEEKLY FTSE PP

R2 4656
R1 4562
PP 4468
S1 4374
S2 4281

Options expiry week/budget and US FOMC rate decision week! Obvious spike down to support on above chart! Ftse oversold imho, pos tgt of 4500!, All down to the dow to brk out of its downtrend at 190/200 to tgt 10300, if not 10k will be on the cards, with ops exp Fri tricky, will we fall at the start of the week and then have a midweek turn into Fri or an early bounce that will be sold into! Will be trading signals on a daily basis with so much out next week!

Have a good weekend!




FTSE FIBS

4518
4490
4467
4445





Updated 3/12 for Monday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 3/15
UP Above 10,300
DN Below 10,100

Pull-Back
Dow trends higher off recent lows, ends session with solid gains.

From prior commentary, "...The Dow dropped another three-digit amount and will likely bounce at 50% Retracement at 10,100 tomorrow. Look for either a reaction rally or a consolidation to form in this area tomorrow..."
The Dow held at the 10,100 level today, honoring the key 50% Retracement point, which led to a solid uptrend for the session, as seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. The Dow got the reaction rally we were looking for today, netting 112 points of gains for the session.

The index continues to trade beneath the clear upper trend line that has formed across the highs of the recent decline, seen in the 15 Minute Chart. An upside break of the line at 10,250 could spark an even greater move higher Monday. But the index must break through 10,300 if lasting strength is to be seen.

Otherwise, we could see the index form a wide range at the lows before another move lower occurs. A downside break through 10,100 would spark further weakness.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a clear short term lower trend line beneath the lows of today's upmove, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. A downside break of this line at 10,200 will make for weakness Monday morning.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we are still Short the Dow from 10,550 and will continue to hold stops at 10,300, locking in 250 points of profit. We will stay Short below 10,100 and will wait to enter Longs until 10,300 is crossed to the upside; using 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P pulled back off recent lows en route to effective gains today. The NASDAQ ended the day at resistance, which will be key Monday. *

Summary

The Dow reversed off yesterday's lows and pushed slowly, but steadily higher throughout the session. Look for continued gains above 10,300 Monday, otherwise, a break below 10,100 will spark another steep decline.

Melnibone - 14 Mar 2004 16:02 - 5 of 22

Afternoon all.

As posted on the DOW thread on Friday, I agree with TP that we
saw Bear closing on Friday in all indices to lock in profit and
take money off the table for the weekend.

US rise after the FTSE close will possibly lead to some more
initial upside on Monday morning. FTSE will need to break the Thursday
bounce high at 4770 to move higher which will put it straight in at
the resistance area of 4500 which coincides with R1.
This should cap any rise without an event or US lead.

Friday's low came close to, but didn't break, the last swing low circa 4360.
Bags of nervousness and volatility have been the order of the day.

S@P and FTSE both had Bull traps set by the Bears at 1160/4550
respectively on the P@F charts.
S@P has either signalled a reversal down or now a Bear trap, set by the
Bulls, when it broke below 1110 on the P@F chart and broke a double
bottom. But Bear closing has taken back up above 1120 so it's unclear
which of the options it is.

EUSTOX50 has broken an uptrend and a swing low when it went below
2820. This has printed reversals before that were all Bear Traps, but
this time it also broke the swing low which is a new complication.

I feel that this is one of those times when your priority is to
protect your pot and go for profit on position trades only
with trend confirmation. All trades I do until then will be on
a quick in and out scalp basis closely paying attention to support
and resistance levels. This is not a time to have preconceived
ideas on direction with highly margined positions.

Melnibone.

Crocodile - 15 Mar 2004 07:36 - 6 of 22

Morning all ..

Douggie - 15 Mar 2004 07:40 - 7 of 22

mornin all

Melnibone - 15 Mar 2004 08:48 - 8 of 22

Morning all,

FTSE having trouble getting above the the Thursday bounce
area that I mentioned.

The Spanish election result and the tragic events in Madrid
are having an effect.

If it was ETA then that would maybe have united the Government
and the people. But because it is now looking like Al Qaeda
this raises the worldwide terrorist stakes. Al Qaeda have achieved
a goal by displacing the Spanish government that supported the
Iraq war. The worry now is there will be repeat attacks in other
countries to achieve the same effect.

I think that fundamentals have just flown out of the window
as far as stock markets are concerned. Markets dislike uncertainty.

Melnibone.

little woman - 15 Mar 2004 09:06 - 9 of 22

Morning all

Crocodile - 15 Mar 2004 10:38 - 10 of 22

Yummy tea,
Went short FTSE as I mentioned in the header at 4450 and a small short on BDEV. Thats my lot on a quiet morning.

little woman - 15 Mar 2004 10:46 - 11 of 22

Still non of my stop losses have kicked in - still makes me think that this is not a falling market. (Or I just don't hold the FTSE100 shares that are being hit hardest!)

Melnibone - 15 Mar 2004 11:43 - 12 of 22

Maybe you're just a good stockpicker, little woman. :-)

Melnibone.

little woman - 15 Mar 2004 12:03 - 13 of 22

I wish - the bulk of my shares have paid a rising div every year consistantly! I suppose they are just solid companies, so don't get hit as hard as others.

Melnibone - 15 Mar 2004 12:07 - 14 of 22

My gut instinct is telling me to short the pops now,
not buy the dips.

Looking at the way some stocks, as well as indices, are performing,
I'm getting the impression that when stuff rises to where folk
bought in for a bounce, and it didn't, then they are just selling
to exit positions whilst breathing a sigh of relief.

If S@P breaks below the 1100/1105 area, then my P@F chart is
suggesting that support will not come in until the 1030/1040 area.
Think what that will do to Eurozone stocks and indices.

I'm leaving long positions to heros and LTBH'ers.

Melnibone.

little woman - 15 Mar 2004 12:35 - 15 of 22

Several of my shares are up today, and the few downs, seem to be pulling back up. BT.A is currently 5+, so I'm showing a very healthy profit now. Even JRVS purchased before the fall is still in profit.

Crocodile - 15 Mar 2004 12:39 - 16 of 22

Had 2 shorts on the FTSE, closed the early one for a few when it fell below 4050 and the second for a meager 2 points when it just flatlined.
No position at the moment.

ThePlayboy - 15 Mar 2004 13:38 - 17 of 22

Croc sounds sensible to me, do u have depth of mkt for ftse, thats some comp prog today, like Fri, unbelievable, who wrote that, i,d like to throttle em:) Was ok but was a real take on! Couple of trades but sat on hands, was cheaper!

Crocodile - 15 Mar 2004 14:55 - 18 of 22

TP,
Yep have mkt depth, very intersting

ThePlayboy - 15 Mar 2004 14:57 - 19 of 22

also have the depth, but been mad past couple of days, i prefer a medium mkt!

Melnibone - 15 Mar 2004 17:06 - 20 of 22

Glad I changed strategy from last Thu/Fri to sell the pops
instead of buy the dips.

S@P very close to the critical support level now.
If this goes, it will be a large gap down open on the
FTSE tomorrow below 4400.
Still, let's not jump the gun, 4 hours left to trade yet.

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 15 Mar 2004 17:19 - 21 of 22

 
2970
X 2940
X X O 2910
X O X O 2880
X O X O 2850
X O O 2820
X O 2790
X O 2760
X 2730
X 2700
X X 2670
X X X O X 2640
X O X O X O X 2610
X O X X O X O X 2580
X O X O X O O 2550
X X X X O X O X 2520
X O X O X O X O X O X 2490
X O X O X O X O X O 2460
X O X O O O X 2430
X X O X O 2400
X O X X X X O 2370
X X O X O X O X O X 2340
X O X O X O X O X O X 2310
X O X O O O O X 2280
X X X O X O X 2250
X X O X X O X O O 2220
X O X O X O X O X 2190
X X O X O X O X O 2160
X O X O O X O X 2130
X O X O X O X 2100
X O X O O X 2070
O X O 2040
O X 2010
O X 1980
O X 1950
O X 1920
O X 1890
O 1860

Update for the EUSTOX50 PnF chart. I've found this one to be pretty indicative

of Eurozone Indices this year. Not looking pretty. This is only the second time that

we've dropped 2 box's below the support. If SnP drops then the EUSTOX50 could

carry on dropping to below 2600.

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 15 Mar 2004 17:25 - 22 of 22

 
X 4600
X O X
X O X X O 4500
X O X O X O
O X X O X O 4400
O X O X O
O X O X X 4300
O X X O X O X
O X O X X O X X X O X 4200
O X O X O X O X O X X X O X O X
O X O X O X O X O X O X O X O X O 4100
O X O X O X O O X O X O X O X
O O X O O X O X O X X O 4000
O X O X O O X O X
O X O X X X O X O X 3900
O X O X O X O X O O X X
O O X O X O X O X O X 3800
O X O O O X O X
O O X X O X 3700
O X O X O
O X O X 3600
O X O X
O O X 3500
O X
O X 3400
O X
O 3300

Update on UKX PnF chart. Still in bull trend but check out the action

on the left when we were last at these levels.

 

Melnibone.

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