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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 22nd March (SHEL)
Crocodile - 21 Mar 2004 15:52
| UK PreMarket Futures | FTSE -35 | DAX -35 | DOW -24 | S&P -2.7 | Nasdaq -5 |
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Northern Foods said it expected to report results broadly in line with expectations for the year to the end of this month. Wolseley the world's largest supplier of plumbing equipment, said first half profits rose by 21 percent to 226.3 million pounds, in line with estimates, and it saw the U.S. industrial and commercial markets improving. Ebookers online travel agency grew 90 percent in 2003 as it announced its first ever adjusted pre-tax profit to 1.3 million pounds and said that 2004 had got off to a strong start. Forth Ports posted a better-than-expected 12 percent rise in annual underlying profit and said it was confident of earnings growth in 2004. |
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Aero Inventory (I), Hit Entertainment (I), Inventive Leisure (I), Kier Group (I),Ashtenne Holdings (F), Churchill China (F), Collins Stewart Tullett (F), CSS Stellar (F), EBookers (F), Enterprise (F), Forth Ports (F), Hiscox (F), Hit Entertainment (F), John Laing (F), London and Associated properties (F), Maclellan Group (F), Pennant International (F), TripleArc (F), Venture Production (F), Wolseley (F), MyTravel Group (AGM) |
Carnival Corp Walgreen Co 17:00 Core PPI Feb DATE TBA 0.1% 17:00 PPI Feb DATE TBA 0.5% |
France Telecom |
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Crocodile - 21 Mar 2004 15:52 - 3 of 34
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Sunday Newspapers
SHELL yesterday refused to say what proportion of its Nigerian proven oil and gas reserves had been overstated as the repercussions from its second cut in overall forecasts this week continued to swirl around the troubled oil giant. Carphone Warehouse will turn up the heat on rival British Telecom this week when it offers free local calls between users of its fixed- line service. Financial results from retailers this week will show that the High Street spending spree is showing no sign of stopping. Baltimore Technologies, the entire board ofthe former FTSE 100 company that was once worth 5.2 billion, may be removed by its biggest investor. BAE officials at the Ministry of Defence are drawing up a radical revamp of the 10 billion aircraft-carrier programme that could cause BAE Systems to lose its position as prime contractor. |
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SUNDAY TIMES Irish Business Digest Ulster Tv Forth Ports to navigate 500m acquisition MyTravel faces row on payoffs Ex-boss returns to port with Simon Group bid Black Rock Oil & Gas Schroder team to help laggards Auditor refuses to sign Shell accounts BAE may lose main carrier role National Grid pulls plug in Argentina Transco Allied Irish Bank knocked off its perch Threat to unseat Baltimore board Davy denies early trading in Eircom flotation Carphone Warehouse declares war on BT with free local calls Builders shares go through the roof, Taylor Woodrow Ulster Tv Media News Billboard |
Judgment Day: Should you buy shares in Taylor Nelson Sofres? Sharewatch: Should you buy shares in Eircom? Wave of pessimism knocks Footsie lower, SHL Group Agenda: William Lewis: Strange times in the Shell Kremlin Sharewatch: Alfred McAlpine Small Business: More banks are saying yes to SMEs, HBOS Sharewatch: Ring tones get iTouch on message Persimmon, Builders shares go through the roof Why we still can't be sure of Shell HBOS Leinster Lions get green light from bank Sharewatch: Venture Production Ark Therapeutics Keen to raise 25m for biotech firm Sharewatch: SkyePharma |
| Premier Farnell electrical components distributor is currently a much more efficient company than in previous years, helped by its investment in customer relationship systems. Online sales are also growing rapidly with e-commerce sales in Europe rising 72% last year to contribute more than 10% of the total. The group is also working hard to build better relationships with its large corporate customers, which include Boeing, BAE Systems and General Electric. Buck Hickman Despite worries over recent service problems at Coventry-based subsidiary , investors should buy at 241.5p. | |
| SUNDAY TELEGRAPH Taylor & Francis Investors split on merger BT Group Talk Talk is cheap Reed Elsevier raids Cannes New Glaxo pay storm Carphone Warehouse,BT Talk Talk is cheap Leighton to be quizzed on Leeds United BAE Systems angered by deal RAB aims at new high |
DFS Furniture, Kirkham's bargain bid Premier Oil Tread with caution You can't depend on Shell The mobile music store, Chrysalis Group City comment: Garnering a fortune, Glaxo City comment: Royal Dutch Shell is offering too little Capital Chairmen in Shell suits |
| Royal Bank of Scotland concerns over rising interest rates have limited the progress of shares in and its rivals in the banking sector but they remain good value. Underlying economic conditions are benign in Britain and the US, which account for the bulk of RBS's profits. Interest rates are likely to remain low, so the risk of bad debts at RBS is probably not on the cards. Another major acquisition would bolster investor confidence and RBS chief executive Fred Goodwin is known to be on the lookout for a target in the US. Buy at 1675p. mm02 have fallen sharply since a takeover approach from Dutch rival KPN failed to develop into a bid. But mm02 remains a target for predators as it is too small to compete against the industry's giants. A possible suitor is Japanese operator NTT DoCoMo which wants to expand overseas. The belief that mm02 will eventually be taken over means investors should buy at 102.5p. Business Post Group is attracting investors following its landmark deal with Royal Mail which opened up the UK postal network to the private sector. Analysts believe the deal will contribute to profits by 2006, reaching 12.2m by 2010 on revenues of 200m. The group is also benefiting from booming consumer spending through its contract with Dell, the US computer giant. Buy at 488.5p. | |
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OBSERVER William Morrison, Waitrose to bag 300m lion's share in Safeway sale A split could boost Emap Shell fears worse to come |
Shell makes greens see red Double-Dutch message, Shell Transport The Shell supertanker is holed below the line |
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MAIL ON SUNDAY Allied Domecq Dunkin' Donuts in US bidding battle Jailed boss sues P&O for 6m Funds make tasty gains from Devro Directors weigh up Kirkham's DFS bid Mr Clean tipped for top Shell job Why all is well on High Street, House of Fraser |
Granada rules if Carlton three quit ITV M&S probes 100,000 staff theft British Airways blow as sales boss goes EMI bumper profit to silence critics Russian challenges Corus board Corus Group |
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INDEPENDENT After the Shell shock: watchdogs seek to wipe out the grey areas in the black stuff British Airways faces strike threat over plans to plug 1bn pensions gap Corus, What's a nice Russian oligarch like you doing in a steelworks like this? |
M&S For its Next trick, high-street chain will reveal profits are up John Hirst: Confusion gives way to fusion at Premier Farnell EMAP For its Next trick, high-street chain will reveal profits are up |
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SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY Forth Ports tipped to join bid battle with Mersey Docks House of Fraser takeover rumours grow Shell investors braced for yet more oil and gas revisions Johnston Press makes colourful bid for profits and buyouts The best is yet to come at Axis-Shield |
Wireless Group, MacKenzie takes action over Rajar Caledonia plan raises investor fears HBOS backlash over porn deal with Desmond Halladale plans 10m shares issue for growth |
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INVESTORS CHRONICLE Tips: Buy Devro (DVO) at 105p - Get Group (GTG) at 220p - Avanti Capital (AVA) at 142p - Inveresk (IVS) at 20p.Updates:Buy Centurion (CUC).Basepoint (BNT) and Enterprise Inns (ETI) are good value.DTZ (DTZ) is fairly priced.Company Results:Buy Sportech (SPO) - Biocompatibles (BII) - Mayborn (MBY) - Staffware (STW). Sell Telewest Communications (TWT). |
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SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week: Short Abbey National (ANL) at 454p. Buy - Bovis Homes (BVS) at 527p - Countryside Properties (CYD) at 242p - Easynet (ESY) at 130p - Vega (VEG) at 148p. Updates: Buy Rok Property Solutions (ROK) and iTouch (ITU). Hold Sportech (SPO). |
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Marks & Spencer has effectively accused
staff at one of its biggest outlets in Reading of stealing 100,000 from the
tills.Melnibone - 21 Mar 2004 17:31 - 4 of 34
meant to be slaving away on a computer, 24/7, doing all this for us,
for free. :-))
Any more of this and I will be forced to write a letter of complaint
to MaM, signed, 'Disgusted from Tunbridge Wells'. ;-)
Ref the Indices, I agree with Croc. There's far too many Bears appearing
in the media calling for the end of the financial world as we know it.
I've already seen the first spring cuckoo comparing charts with Japan.
Some are calling for a 60% drop in the US and a 40% drop in the UK, due
to they are over-valued by that much. The fact that they managed a hedge
fund and were definately not touting for business had absolutely
nothing to do with it.
Sticking to support, resistance and trend with well managed margin
and positions. Until it changes, the trend is still up and the Indices
are on support.
Melnibone.
Fundamentalist
- 21 Mar 2004 18:43
- 5 of 34
thanks as always Croc.
Mel - it appears it could be another bad week for GSK. According to the Sunday Telegraph the full details of the new remuneration agreements are out this week including an increase in bonus last year for Garnier. Also, it appears that the directors who rolled over their options after the Smithklione merger are being given additional cash payments for doing so, with Richard Sykes (ex-Chairman) receiving 941,000. Until the shareholder vote on the remuneration packages are over (in May I believe) the share price is going to continue to be under pressure imho and your 1000p target looks increasingly likely.
Melnibone - 21 Mar 2004 19:11 - 6 of 34
It seems as if they're having a competition with SHEL to see who
can trump the last bit of bad news. ;-)
They're both big world players, the lower they go the better it becomes
for LTBH'ers when they come to put some more money to work in the market.
For traders, the up/down swings are giving good trading opportunities.
Long may it continue.:-)
Taking a peek at LGEN at the moment, it's been hammered down to the
autumn lows and it pays a nice divi in two wednesdays time. (31 March).
If the Indices supports hold, and Fundies start buying Blue Chips
to end the quarter on a good note, there's the possibility of capital
appreciation and a 4% divi to ice the cake with.
As always, my Delorean is still bust, that Reliant Robin that TP
loaned me isn't much cop, ;-), so I don't know if supports will hold.
Worth thinking about though.
Edit: That should read that LGEN goes ex-divi on the 31Mar, which as a
CFD trader is what I'm interested in. Real share dealers will have to
hold for a little longer.
Melnibone.
gallick - 21 Mar 2004 21:31 - 7 of 34
When you mention the 'experts' talking about a 60% fall in the US and a 40% fall in the UK, this sounds like Mr Smithers of Smithers & Co, a notorious bear. As I understand it he bases his calculations on Q ratios (or factors...I'm not sure) which you need to be a maths professor to understand. Since the stockmarket is based so much on fear and greed (ie sentiment/emotions) I reckon these sorts of mathematical calculations can be an analysis too far. I have just read about a top US trader who has made millions by concentrating solely on charts and volumes (ie no fundemental analysis at all). It makes you think!!
Regards to all.
Melnibone - 21 Mar 2004 21:53 - 8 of 34
I like a little bit of basic FA to make sure I'm not trading
long on a basket case or short on a takeover target.
Then all I'm interested in is which way it's going, which is
shown by the chart, between support and resistance and trade with it.
When it hits support or resistance, I then wait to see if it's
going to reverse or continue and break the support/resistance.
Liquidity is important to enable you to make easy entries and exits
within a narrow spread, which is why I like FTSE100 Blue Chips or simple
Index trading. This is another area where volume comes in to play as well as
checking whether the higher volume is on up days or down days, which is
the more usual reason why traders keep an eye on volume.
Melnibone.
Crocodile - 22 Mar 2004 07:51 - 9 of 34
little woman
- 22 Mar 2004 08:30
- 10 of 34
Lots to do this week....
Melnibone - 22 Mar 2004 09:16 - 11 of 34
FTSE down to the last swing low, there will also be some more
support around the 4330 area. It needs to hold around these levels.
US is also near the DOW/S@P 10,100/1100 levels which it needs to hold.
Should find out soon if we're making lows or changing trends.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 22 Mar 2004 10:19
- 12 of 34
Crocodile - 22 Mar 2004 10:23 - 13 of 34
D.
Melnibone - 22 Mar 2004 10:31 - 14 of 34
I'll have to do some more checking but I'm under the
impression that ANGL is priced in Euros.
Maybe some confusion here between the currency quotes.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 22 Mar 2004 10:36 - 15 of 34
| 4600 | |||||||||||||
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| X | X | O | 4500 | ||||||||||
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| X | O | X | O | 4400 | |||||||||
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| X | X | 4300 | |||||||||||
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| X | X | O | X | 4200 | |||||||||
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| X | O | X | O | 4100 | |||||||||
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| X | O | 4000 | |||||||||||
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| O | X | 3900 | |||||||||||
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| O | X | O | X | 3800 | |||||||||
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| O | X | X | O | X | 3700 | ||||||||
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| O | X | O | X | 3600 | |||||||||
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| O | O | X | 3500 | ||||||||||
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| O | X | 3400 | |||||||||||
| O | X | ||||||||||||
| O | 3300 |
FTSE has now made a double bottom on the PnF Chart.
If it prints 4300 then it will do the same as the Eustox50 and the SnP
Care required here for shorts or longs.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 22 Mar 2004 10:43 - 16 of 34
Yahoo! quotes ANGL on the Dublin exchange in Euros
with the divi in Euro Cents.
MaM is quoting the price and the divi in Sterling Pence
Please double check before making any decision.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 22 Mar 2004 11:48 - 17 of 34
All depends now on how spooked the US gets on the killing
of the Hamas leader.
US and UK are still on support. Selling volume in the US was
heavier on the US stocks but now seems to be lightening off
a little.
A lot of the UK Blue Chips I trade are still holding on support.
As usual, everything is on hold now for US direction.
GSK hasn't dropped that much today considering the general fall.
What do you reckon Fundamentalist and Little woman?
Signs of bottoming or just recovering a bit from last weeks
sell off?
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 22 Mar 2004 12:11 - 18 of 34
October low seems to be holding and it's trying to go positive
on a down day. Don't forget the ex-divi next week circa 4%.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 22 Mar 2004 12:40 - 19 of 34
which is dropping the share down.
Be interesting to see if some news now comes out into the
public domain after some folk have already adjusted their
positions.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 22 Mar 2004 12:54
- 20 of 34
After never giving me a moments worry over the last 6 plus years, my work computer is not happy! I've had to restart 3 times, but it seems to be OK now.
Fundamentalist
- 22 Mar 2004 13:36
- 21 of 34
news often comes at 2pm prior to the US opening rather than early morning on this share - could be an interesting next hour
zarif
- 22 Mar 2004 13:44
- 22 of 34
Fundamentalist - i have sent u internal mail by mam.
rgds
zarif
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