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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 29th March (BP.)     

Crocodile - 28 Mar 2004 12:49

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BP trading update later today but has announced it has found a new oil feed off Angola.

Thus Group is on track to meet sales growth expectations this year and is set to deliver positive operating profit in the second half of the next financial year.

FirstGroup rail and bus operator expects to meet sales and profit market estimates adding that its finance director was stepping down.

Regus reported positive 2003 earnings of 3.8 million pounds compared with a loss of 22.9 million pounds in the prior year and said trading had continued to improve going into 2004.

Pilkington said its annual operating profit would be around last year's level, in line with its expectations but trading conditions remained challenging, but that it was benefiting from an efficiency drive.

Scottish Power said it was trading in line with expectations, and added it had received 400 million pounds in cash from its hedging strategy.

Ashtead equipment hire fsaid it planned to raise 130 million pounds from a high yield bond offering, as it reported a drop in 9 month profits to 4.5 million pounds against 8.8 million previously

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 James Halstead (I), Paramount (I),4imprint (F), AG Barr (F), Alexon Group (F), Chepstow Racecourse (F), Emblaze Ltd (F), Melrose Resources (F), Metal Bulletin (F), MSB (F), Orad Hi-Tec Systems (F), Wellington Holdings (F)

BP Strategy PresentationThus Group (Trading), Scottish Power (Trading)Feb consumer credit, Feb M4 money supply, Q4 produtivity

 

The US market starts at 3:30pm GMT

This Week

They are not yet on summer time.

Rheinmetall AG Hannover Rueckversicherungs AG Suess Microtec AG

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David@SnappyTrader.com    www .SnappyTrader.com  Pre Market Futures FTSE Unch DAX +10 DOW +25 S&P +2.4

Tips & Recommendations

Crocodile - 28 Mar 2004 12:49 - 3 of 20

Sunday Newspapers

sundaypaper.gifBritish firms are expected to sign significant deals with Libya following the historic handshake between Tony Blair and Colonel Gaddafi.Trade Secretary Patricia Hewitt says firms will make deals in industries such as oil, health and education in a bid to help the country make improvements to human rights.

Boots, Britain's leading health and beauty retailer has announced the creation of 3,000 new jobs as it plans to set up a further 60 stores.

SUNDAY TIMES Irish Business Digest Tullow Oil Sainsbury buys in a new chief as investors sell up Carphone Warehouse Internet links mean number is up for old-style phones Centrica calls on regulator to block BTs planned tariffs BAEs new chairman nails his colours to the mast Bank of Ireland is still funding porn company Baltimore recruits new directors Centrica calls on regulator to block BTs planned tariffs Ark Therapeutics Merlin tries to regain its magic touch Irish Business Digest, Independent News and Media BPs $5bn for shares buyback WS Atkins lines up deal to rebuild Libyan capital The Andrew Davidson Interview: GKN's modest knight bows out BT Internet links mean number is up for old-style phones

GKN Vital Statistics New wells prosper, Melrose Resources ITV Allen bounces back and with a good tale to tell Why auditors closed the door on Shell Vodafone director makes a good call GKN Sir David Lees's working day HBOS Watching the killers RAB Capital Buds of recovery will not shrivel in heat of conflict Sharewatch: Peterhouse HBOS Value of housing stock doubles Working Space GKN Courts Shares recover from lowest level this year Sainsbury Lees speaks out on board rows

Boots' chief executive Richard Baker had always hinted investment would be needed, so news last week of a major overhaul should not have spooked investors in the way it did. Take his word that 2006 financial results will show rewards and buy the shares at 623.5p.
SUNDAY TELEGRAPH King has 'free hand' at Sainsbury Shell investors demand meeting Arculus tipped for MM02 Severn Trent Arculus tipped for MM02 Boots 'strategy leak'

'I don't want to flagellate myself' Sainsbury Can Evans restore Merlin's magic? Ark Therapeutics Sainsbury's for sale Talking the Talk Talk, Carphone Warehouse

BP to splurge on share buybacks

Barratt Developments last week reported a 35% increase in interim profits. The firm should be well placed to benefit from Chancellor Gordon Brown's backing of a report calling for 120,000 new houses to be built each year, making the shares a buy at 614.5p. Pace Micro Technology, the television set-top box maker, made underlying profits of 1.1m in its first half against losses of 16m last time. It looks set to meet expectations of 5m profits for the full year ending in May and 10m next year. Buy at 69p. Melrose Resources is to report annual results on Monday. In February it raised 10.9m in a placing* to help fund projects and cut debts. The shares (205.5p) have had a decent run in recent months but are worth holding on to for the longer term. Wyndeham Press magazine printer has had a tough time in recent months. However since a fall in interim profits the firm has made management changes, won a contract to print the Ideal Home magazine and last week bought a print process company. Buy at 115p.

OBSERVER Sky set to take control of horseracing on TV Share bonanza for Sainsburys Investors to grill BP on oil reserves WPP Investor fury as Sorrell seeks 34m payout Now Manchester United fail to score in City

BP Rocket man ready for lift-off Is Sainsbury being led into Green pastures? De Vere rebels with a cause

Check out those pensions, Marks & Spencer Group

MAIL ON SUNDAY Severn Trent, Water boss 'flouts FTSE guideline' Bosses confront fat-cat rebels, Governance showdown looms High Street gloom takes its toll Unilever boss attacks City culture, FitzGerald fires parting shot

Baltimore to fight predator Bank giant extols Eden virtue, Lehman takes chunk of tiny broker Vision has Ford in sights, In-car systems firm to reveal deal EU power 'a threat to loans', Laws threaten mortgage chaos

The Business:  INKJET print heads developer Xaar has disappointed investors in the past but a new management team appears to have built good foundations for the business. A deal with one of the world's largest imaging firms Agfa augurs well. Shares are a speculative buy at 75p

INDEPENDENT  BAE Systems British firms eye dividend of diplomacy with Libya Sarbanes-Oxley may force out Shell duo

Trocadero, the casino royale? London Clubs International Sainsbury's needs its Kingpin to show Sir Peter the door

The Week Ahead: All hands to the pumps: Opec is set to end crude guesswork Baltimore Technologies  

SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY  Baltimore in bid to fight off vulture fund Acquisitor Forth Ports 'We are interested in buying Teesport' Royal Bank pay differentials anger workers Glaxo in talks to break into Chinese market Union warns of resignations as Royal Bank pay differentials anger workers

RBOS, HBOS Bankers' attire is a weighty issue Royal Bank of Scotland Bankers' attire is a weighty issue

John Lewis to launch credit card with HSBC Wiseman Dairies ready to milk latest product  

SUNDAY EXPRESS S

INVESTORS CHRONICLE Tips: Buy - Jarvis (JRVS), Geest (GET), UK Coal (UKC), Montpellier (MPL), America Mineral Fields (AMZ), Intellexis (ILX).Tip Updates: Buy - 1st Dental (FDT), Air Music & Media (AMU). Kewill (KWL). Sell - MyTravel (MT), Northern Foods (NFDS).Company Results: Buy John Laing (LNGO) - HIT Entertainment (HTE) - Barratt Developments (BDEV) - Forth Ports (FPT) - Enterprise (ETI) - Lok'n Store (LOK)

SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week: Buy America Mineral Fields (AMZ) at 91.5p - Anglo-Eastern Plantations (AEP) at 180.05p - Xaar (XAR) at 70p - Angle (AGL) at 148.5p.Updates: Sell NSB Retail Systems (NSB), Hold Intelligent Environments (IEN) and Pennant International (PEN).

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David@SnappyTrader.com    www.SnappyTrader.com  01902 676159

*

  *

Tips & Recommendations

Crocodile - 28 Mar 2004 13:26 - 4 of 20

 

BROKERS THOUGHTS / 22nd 26th March  

Friday, 26 March INVESTEC raised its rating on global miner Anglo American to 'buy' from 'hold', as it upped profit forecasts on all four major London-listed mining groups. The brokerage upgraded commodity price forecasts, leading it to increase forecasts of net* profits, before exceptionals, by 6-20% at Anglo American, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Xstrata. It rated all four stocks as 'buy'. GOLDMAN Sachs raised its rating on business parks operator Slough Estates to 'outperform*' from 'in-line'. Goldman said it was making the move to take advantage of the stock's weakness after Slough's recent earnings release. MERRILL Lynch raised its rating on construction and engineering services firm AMEC to 'buy' from 'neutral' following recent contract awards in Iraq. Merrill said in a note it was also upgrading its operating and pre-tax profit estimates by around 10% in 2004-05. SMITH Barney raised its price target on Brambles Industries, the world's largest pallet supplier, to 'buy' from 'hold', dealers said on Friday. Dealers said Smith Barney had raised its price target on the Sydney and London-listed firm to A$6.40 a share from A$5.43, saying its US-based CHEP business was finally in a position to deliver sustainable profit growth. MORGAN Stanley raised its target on hedge fund Man Group to 1830p a share from 1770p on the back of a strong performance and lower redemptions. LEHMAN Brothers also raised its price target on Man Group, to 2200p a share from 1850p, keeping its 'overweight*' rating on the stock. SMITH Barney cut its rating on health and beauty retailer Boots Group to 'sell' from 'hold' and its target to 625p a share from 700p. Merrill Lynch also cut its target on Boots, to 770p a share from 810p and lowered earnings estimates for 2004-05 and the following year. CSFB raised its target price on Signet, the world's largest jewellery retailer, to 120p a share from 110p, and kept its 'outperform' rating on the stock. The investment bank also raised its pre-tax profit forecast for the current financial year by 5m ($9m) to 220m, and by 5.4m to 240m for the following year.  

Thursday, 25 March SMITH Barney, raised its price target on British housebuilder Barratt Developments to 650p a share from 500p. JP Morgan slashed its 2004 earnings forecasts for British life assurer Legal & General by 29%, saying the company was most exposed to increased life expectancy. In a review of the UK insurance sector after data indicated people may live longer than was previously thought, the investment bank said Legal & General was the most exposed to this risk. The bank also cut earnings estimates for rival Aviva by 7% for this year and for Friends Provident by 9%. It added that Prudential was relatively immune as its Asian business continues to expand quickly. NUMIS raised its rating on Next to 'add' from 'hold', after Britain's third-biggest clothing retailer posted a forecast-beating 17% rise in annual profits. The broker raised its target price on the stock to 1510p a share, from 1350p. NUMIS also raised its rating on Man Group to 'add' from 'hold' after the world's largest listed hedge fund manager* forecast pre-tax profits markedly over market expectations. It raised its price target on the stock to 1800p a share from 1470p. DEUTSCHE Bank raised its target on Xstrata to 'buy' from 'hold' because it said the London-listed miner was well-placed to gain from increased commmodity prices. The bank also raised its price target on the stock to 800p a share from 700p.  

Wednesday, 24 March NUMIS raised its rating on Barratt Developments to 'add' from 'hold' after the housebuilder beat expectations with a 35% rise in first-half profit. Numis also raised its price target on Barratt to 660p per share from 620p. BRIDGEWELL also upgraded its rating on Barratt, to 'neutral' from 'underweight', saying the company had produced a strong set of results across its entire business. CSFB raised its rating on metals and chemicals firm Johnson Matthey to 'outperform' from 'neutral', keeping its 975p a share price target. 'We believe that a confluence of negative factors, and in particular concern at growth prospects in the Pharmaceutical Materials division, has presented a cheap entry point for investors in a stock which, in our view, has the best business model in the sector,' CSFB said in a research note. MORGAN Stanley cut its rating on British American Tobacco to 'equal weight' from 'overweight', as it raised price targets on it and other tobacco stocks. Morgan Stanley raised its price target on BAT, the world's second-biggest cigarette maker, 9% to 930p a share. It said BAT had strong long-term prospects but saw short-term risks from US merger reviews and a potential revial of tobacco lawsuits. The bank said its favoured tobacco stock remained Imperial Tobacco and raised its price target on Imperial by 12% to 1,400p, keeping an 'overweight' rating on the stock. NUMIS raised its price target on Ted Baker to 435p from 415p after the fashion chain had posted a 265% jump in annual profits. Numis also said it had a 'hold' rating on the stock. SMITH Barney cut its price target on banking group HSBC to 750p a share from 775p, and kept its 'sell' rating on the stock. DEUTSCHE Bank raised its rating on the world's second-biggest brewer, SABMiller, to 'hold' from 'sell', and had lifted its price target to 570p a share from 480p. UBS also raised its price target on SABMiller, to 590p a share from 560p, and kept its 'hold' rating on the stock. The bank said it had upgraded its price target after making a 2% increase in earnings-per-share estimates. LEHMAN Brothers raised its rating on life assurer Legal & General to 'overweight' from 'underweight' and increased its price target on the stock to 114p from 102p. HSBC upgraded Britain's fifth-biggest bank Lloyds TSB to 'add' from 'reduce' and also raised its price target on the stock to 460p from 440p. Dealers said HSBC upgraded the stock because capital fears at Lloyds TSB were overdone and the shares were attractively valued.  

Tuesday, 23 March DEUTSCHE Bank cut its rating on music and book retailer HMV Group to 'hold' from 'buy', and raised its price target to 235p from 205p. DEUTSCHE Bank also raised its target price for plumbing and heating equipment supplier Wolseley to 770p from 685p and retained a 'hold' recommendation. INVESTEC raised its rating on department store firm House of Fraser to 'hold' from 'reduce'. Investec said in a note it believed the firm's earnings stream to be improving against a background of lower cost pressures and new store/loyalty initiatives over the next 12 months. GOLDMAN Sachs started coverage of British utility Northumbrian Water Group with an 'in-line' rating. TEATHER & Greenwood raised its rating for accountancy software company Sage Group to 'buy' from 'hold'. Teather added it had a fair value target of 190p. 'The combination of new geographical and vertical markets opened up through acquisition, coupled with the cross-selling, upgrade support revenue potential already present through the installed base, represents an attractive proposition,' Teather said in a research note. UBS upped its rating on Hit Entertainment, the media firm behind children's character Bob the Builder, to 'buy' from 'neutral'. UBS kept its target of 355p. UBS also raised its target on food supplier Northern Foods to 170p from 155p. Traders said the bank had a 'neutral' rating on Northern, which supplies own-label food to retailers such as Marks & Spencer. LEHMAN Brothers raised its price target for caterer Compass Group to 480p from 420p, and had kept its 'overweight' rating on the stock. 'We expect Friday's trading update to be a confident assessment of the group's current prospects: at least 6%organic growth and good margin progress,' Lehman said in a note. UBS raised its rating on 3i to 'buy' from 'neutral' and increased its fair value on the private equity investor group to 685p per share from 655p. MERRILL Lynch downgraded consumer products giant Unilever to 'neutral' from 'buy'.

Monday, 22 March CSFB raised its target price for telecoms equipment maker Marconi to 700p a share from 630p and retained a 'neutral' rating. It also raised its earnings per share* estimates for 2005 and 2006 to 11p and 35p from 6p and 28p respectively. UBS raised its price target for property firm Canary Wharf to 292p a share from 275p, and had kept its 'neutral' rating on the stock. On Friday a Morgan Stanley-led consortium raised its offer for Canary Wharf to 292p per share, trumping an earlier 275p offer by Canadian conglomerate Brascan. The company has recommended shareholders vote in favour. GOLDMAN Sachs raised its stance on Tesco, Britain's biggest grocer, to 'outperform' from 'in-line'. PANMURE Gordon, part of Lazard, raised its rating on waste management firm Shanks to 'buy' from 'hold' and upped its target price to 145p from 125p.  

little woman - 28 Mar 2004 14:48 - 5 of 20

Afternoon all

I don't think I'm going to do much next week, very much a wait and see week.

Crocodile - 28 Mar 2004 18:28 - 6 of 20

Thanks all, final news update just posted.

Melnibone - 28 Mar 2004 18:40 - 7 of 20

Evening all,

Swing and P@F charts still showing down, so still looking to
short Indice pops.

As Croc points out, US not open until 1530 hrs.
As UK follows US lead, this only gives it 1 Hour a day to
make its mind up. As US wlll mess about for the first hour
as positions get squared off and direction established, I would
expect there will be a strong possibility of gap opens from
Tuesday morning onwards on the FTSE. With Bulls and Bears locking
in profits from the move, according to which way it gaps, there
is a good chance of some volatile reversals giving good trading
opportunities between ranges.

I still think that the 4330/4360 range,(previous swing lows), is the
area to watch for a breakout to establish a trend. I am erring on
the side of a break to below 4300 but will be guided by the market.

Melnibone.

averagedown - 28 Mar 2004 22:27 - 8 of 20

Hi, That dead dodgy picture on page 66 of IC has not gone unnoticed. So in return for all the advice I've picked up from this, and other 'croc' threads, I will now offer mine. Put rabbits on your head, from a distance they look like Hares.

ciao

Crocodile - 28 Mar 2004 23:21 - 9 of 20

averagedown :-)
J'espere, a bientot!

ThePlayboy - 29 Mar 2004 07:19 - 10 of 20

MONDAYS FTSE PP

R2 4405
R1 4381
PP 4363
S1 4339
S2 4321

Close was above the pp on Friday! 2 day chart looking for a brk above 65 for a run up to Fri highs, weakness sub 4345 imho!

WEEKLY FTSE PP

R2 4470
R1 4414
PP 4361
S1 4305
S2 4253

JUNE FTSE FUTURES PP

R2 4408
R1 4388
PP 4376
S1 4350
S2 4332


For next week my 60 min indicators have turned bullish after Thu turn, bullish bias above 4345 but need to break out of this downtrend at 4385 to have a run up, dow pos targeting 10320 imho, again weakness below 10200! Have a weekly upside target of R1! Not a totally clear picture due to is this just a reaction rally off 10k or more of a longer term move up! 4385 the big figure for next week up and 4345 down to start with, still looks oversold short term!

Have a good weekend!



Updated 3/26 for Monday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 3/29
UP Above 10,325
DN Below 10,125

Holding
Dow trades sideways, holds on to recent gains.

From prior commentary, "...Look for the Dow to hold on to today's gains tomorrow. The index will likely form a consolidation at the current highs, which is typically what happens after such a major move..."
The Dow traded sideways-to-up throughout the session today, forming a tight consolidation at the highs of the recent upmove, seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The Dow ended the day lower by just 6 points, but the fact that the index was able to hold on to the bulk of yesterday's gains is promising.

Look for the index to continue to consolidate at the highs from around 10,175 to 10,275. Such a range would indicate a likely continuation toward the next resistance level at 10,325. However, a solid break below 10,175 could spark short term pull-back within the current upmove, or more.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a clear trend line beneath the lows of the 5 Minute Chart. A downside break of the line at 10,200 could indicate short term weakness at the Open.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we barely stopped out of Longs this morning at 10,190, giving us a 50 point gain for the last trade. We later entered the market Long at 10,250, but stopped out with a 20 point loss. A late re-entry at 10,270 also faltered.

We are now out of the market and will watch 10,325 up, and 10,125 down, with 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each held on to most of yesterday's big gains today, leaving promise of further strength. We will now focus on the consolidation boundaries for direction Monday. *

Summary

The Dow held at highs of the recent upmove throughout the session today, forming a tight consolidation at the highs. Watch for further sideways movement at the highs before the next run.

Crocodile - 29 Mar 2004 07:39 - 11 of 20

Thanks TP
Morning all

little woman - 29 Mar 2004 08:42 - 12 of 20

Morning & Thanks all,

I see there are lots more things to check out. I seem to only have time a weekends now to work!

Crocodile - 29 Mar 2004 11:41 - 13 of 20

Long Boots, looking good.

Crocodile - 29 Mar 2004 13:38 - 14 of 20

I have redesigned the header a little to add some new features like a link to Broker upgrades, Director dealings & Newspaper Tips.. But I have removed the Nasdaq premarket futures. Also removed the pastel colours for a more Hugo Boss look 
Any ideas for improvement or comment please let me know.
D.
sgned

vasey - 29 Mar 2004 13:58 - 15 of 20

Hope a few of you have bought DES in the last few days...

draw?startDate=23%2F03%2F04&period=5D&ep

little woman - 29 Mar 2004 15:13 - 16 of 20

I forgot that US have not put their clocks forward yet! So NY doesn't open for another 15+ min

Crocodile - 29 Mar 2004 15:37 - 17 of 20

Nice ramp vasey :-)

Crocodile - 29 Mar 2004 16:02 - 18 of 20

Long DOW at the moment but ready to close if it falls below +90

little woman - 29 Mar 2004 16:14 - 19 of 20

The Dow is really heading north - and the FTSE seems to be following it. I wonder what'll happen in the auction?

Crocodile - 29 Mar 2004 16:25 - 20 of 20

Covered DOW long, seems to have topped out.
Covered Sainsbury long as well but only +2
3rd Boots long of the day covered flat
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