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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 26th April (SHEL)     

Crocodile - 25 Apr 2004 11:29

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1 Day  

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UK News

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Gold/Bond

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Day 2 Day 5 Day US News

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S&P Futures

Nikkei +43 Hang Seng -247  Asia News

  DAX    CAC     Euro News

Hang Seng drops on latest S.A.R.S fears.  Commerzbank Q1 profits surge. BBVA, Spains number 2 bank results well ahead of expectations.  Sanofi raises its bid to $69 a share for Aventis. Puma raises profit forecast.

W.H Smith, Waterstones may join in the battle to buy the company.

Smiths Group has bought TRAK Communications Inc, a manufacturer of microwave sub-systems, for 63 million pounds making it the groups 5th acquisition since March.

Centrica has reached an agreement to buy the retail gas and electricity businesses of Canada's ATCO Group for C$90 million which is less than the C$128.5 million previously announced

London Bridge: U.S. software firm Fair Isaac Corp said it had agreed to buy the company for 95 pence per share, a 54 percent premium to Friday's nights close.

ukf.gif Calendar: United Kingdom
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 Bede (F), Coliseum (F), Hansard (F), Ocean Wilson

ARM Holdings (AGM)

EDS (Electronic Data Systems)

15:00 Existing + New Home Sales (1168K)

Puma, Rudolf Dassler Sport,Schering

Michelin, Gemplus International,

Data Download FTSE Intraday Calendar US Zone HTML Edit Currency Calc Dividends Director Dealings Broker Upgrades / Tips

David@SnappyTrader.com   www.SnappyTrader.com

Pre Market Futures FTSE +5 DAX+5 DOW -12 S&P -1.3 Nasdaq -2.5

Crocodile - 25 Apr 2004 11:29 - 3 of 20

sundaypaper.gifSunday Newspapers  In a statement to the London Stock Exchange the FSA said it is to investigate oil giant Shell following the shock downgrade of its reserves earlier this year

Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown has dismissed reports that Britain is facing a housing crash.

Asda, is to trial a standalone store for its George clothing brand opposite a Marks & Spencer outlet - mounting a head-on challenge to the beleaguered high street retailer in Preston

Hungry Tesco, How do you follow record profits of 1.6bn? By setting your sights on China, the world's biggest markets, Sunday Times

SUNDAY TIMES Tesco sparks petrol war with new stations Tesco could cancel move into China Gresham hotels bidder records deficit Big investors back WH Smith bid Scottish Business Digest, John Wood Group Entrepreneur sells stake in struggling Austin Reed Shell backtracks on lawyers' damning report Hungry Tesco steps up the pace of overseas expansion Ofcom to get tough over BT's new prices BAE Systems considers offers for warships division Glaxo sex-aid drug falls flat in UK Mentmore: Safestore to triumph in self-storage battle Cairn 'on target to double size' Reckitt board stung by ABI's attack on pay

Vital statistics: Savills Shell board on trial as report on reserves throws group into turmoil Sharewatch: Westbury Judgment Day: Should you buy shares in Jurys Doyle? Klondyke buzz as Cairn finds bliss in India Judgment Day: Should you buy shares in Holidaybreak? Sharewatch: The Royal Bank of Scotland Savills: The Andrew Davidson Interview: A hot property among estate agents Sharewatch: Wembley Air Partner: Directors' Deals: Mack flies into a bumper payday WH Smith: Swann's dvu over offer Savills: Aubrey Adams's working day Tesco primes the pump Sharewatch: HBOS

SUNDAY TELEGRAPH New Barclay's chief Marks & Spencer Group, Asda throws down gauntlet Permira blocks WH Smith sale Canary Wharf warning Usmanov threatens Corus Bonnier Eidos 'raid' Collins Stewart targets hotels

City comment: Shell Transport Sainsbury: Brands count but companies don't Canary 'ready to fly free' WH Smith: Size matters to equity houses M&S Brands count but companies don't WH Smith 'I almost lost the will to live'

OBSERVER Boom time for Wall St as Shell fights back Dutch helm disease gets blame at Shell

BP A black comedy Pay bonanza boosts HSBC bosses' pensions

Marks & Spencer Group, Loads of chains, little choice Tesco keeps Goths at bay Predators circle WH Smith WH Smith Sticking her neck out

MAIL ON SUNDAY 'We'll break up WH Smith group' Predator would sell delivery arm Brown warned: don't hide 100bn, IMF gets tough on public-private finance Stockbroker swoops for hotel chain, Collins eyes 560m Premier Lodge Shell bosses in 8 billion lawsuit, Oil giant faces record payout  

50m race for Londis nears finish, Three on shortlist for store group New alliance join battle for Telegraph, Candover, Apax in 700m paper chase Nursery group ditches 70m float, Leapfrog in talks with cash buyer Charity to get banks' lost 15bn, Brown targets dormant accounts

Permira, the venture capital firm lining up a 950 million offer for WH Smith, will try to sell the company's huge newspaper and magazine distribution arm if its takeover succeeds.

Shell bosses in 8 billion lawsuit, Shell this weekend sought to bolster its defences against a blizzard of shareholder lawsuits

INDEPENDENT DTI is poised to probe Shell as scandal grows BA threatens 750 jobs in wake of union rejection of pension deal Alvis MoD shoots down 7.7bn deal for UK arms firms

Tools of the Trade: Vodafone hits the road with 3G for laptop users Tesco: For good or ill, we're in thrall to lords of the aisles

BAE Systems MoD shoots down 7.7bn deal for UK arms firms

SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY Animated buying pushes up DA share price Pru's Bloomer as Egg sale is kept on boil Unilever fattens profits but Atkins weighty Thus in communication breakdown with City Halladale Group, Building up a runaway winner

A Shell of a crisis Halladale This one could run and run as Lockhart eyes French dream In brief: Baltimore Technologies

Smiths snaps up TRAK as spending spree continues

INVESTORS CHRONICLE Tips: Buy, Rangold Resources (RRS), Aga Food (AGA), PKL (PKL), Eureka Mining (EKA) and Qualceram Shires (QLC).Sell, Enterprise Inns (ETI).Tip Updates: WH Smith (SMWH) (Sell), UA (UAS) (Good Value), Stanley Gibbons (SGI) (Buy), Freeport (FPR) (Keep Buying), Daily Mail (DMGO) (Sell).Company Results: Tesco (TSCO) (Buy), DFS (DFS) (Fairly Priced), Mouchel Parkman (MCHL) (Fairly Priced), Rugby Estates (RES) (Buy), Air Partner (AIP) (Fairly Priced), Henry Boot (BHY) (Fairly Priced), Highland Gold (HGM) (Fairly Priced), Peter Hambro Mining (POG) (Buy), Vanco (VAN) (Fairly Priced), Kenmare Resources (KMR) (Fairly Priced), Gresham Computing (GHT) (Fairly Priced).

SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week:Buy Visonic (VSC) at 99p, Kenmare Resources (KMR) at 19.5p, Akers Biosciences (AKR) at 91.5p, Invu (NVU) at 9.12p, Prezzo (PRZ) at 97.5p.Updates: Hold CMS Webview (CMS). Sell Countryside Properties (CYD). Hold Bovis Homes (BVS).Five Stocks to Watch: Ryanair (RYA) at EUR5.22, Countryside Properties (CYD) at 233p, Filtronic (FTC) at 398p, Cobra Biomanufacturing (CBR) at 70p, Carillion (CLLN) at 185.5p.Interview: Chief executive of Aggreko (AGK), Rupert Soames.Analysis: House of Fraser (HOF) steals the show, The fight for Baltimore Technologies (BLM).

David@SnappyTrader.com    www .SnappyTrader.com  

Tips & Recommendations

Fred1new - 25 Apr 2004 12:20 - 4 of 20

Thank you as usual.

Still difficult to make a bob or two!

Crocodile - 25 Apr 2004 16:53 - 5 of 20

Fred, as always!

Top Dividends For The Next 3 Weeks
Wednesday 25th April Price Pence % Divi
AGA Foodservice Group 250.5 5 2.00%
Peterhouse Group 196 4 2.04%
Northern Rock 772 15.8 2.05%
International Energy Group Ltd 171.5 3.6 2.10%
4imprint Group 141 3 2.13%
Highbury House Communications 22.5 0.49 2.18%
Rutland Trust 36.25 0.8 2.21%
Wilson Bowden 1121 25.5 2.27%
Belgravium Technologies 13 0.3 2.31%
Mersey Docks and Harbour Company 689.5 16 2.32%
Tomkins 286.5 7.4 2.58%
Irish Life & Permanent 13.9 36.00c 2.59%
Carillion 188 5.18 2.76%
Weir Group 302 9.05 3.00%
Litho Supplies 57.5 1.75 3.04%
Hitachi Capital (UK) 210 6.4 3.05%
Holders Technology 80.5 2.5 3.11%
GKN 239.75 7.8 3.25%
RMC Group 648.5 21.8 3.36%
Senior 39 1.35 3.46%
TDG 211.5 8.75 4.14%
Ecofin Water & Power Opportunities 93.5 4 4.28%
Secure Trust Banking Group 452.5 20.5 4.53%
Novar 143 6.6 4.62%
Equity Partnership Investment Company 110.75 5.24 4.73%
Singer & Friedlander Group 245 29.5 12.04%
Murray Extra Return Investment Trust 22 3 13.64%

Wednesday 5th May
Intermediate Capital Group 1203 24 2.00%
McAlpine (Alfred) 318 6.5 2.04%
Gibbs and Dandy 381 8 2.10%
Trinity Mirror 596 12.8 2.15%
Rentokil Initial 190.5 4.35 2.28%
Barr (A G) 696.5 17 2.44%
Fyffes 110 4.33c 2.60%
Independent News & Media 1.96 5.15c 2.63%
Clinton Cards 86.5 2.6 3.01%
Nestor Healthcare Group 198 6.14 3.10%
Parkwood Holdings 37.5 1.3 3.47%
Tibbett & Britten Group 446 17.1 3.83%
Infast Group 26.75 1.2 4.49%
Portmeirion Group 198.5 9.95 5.01%
royalblue Group 512.5 31.45 6.14%

Wednesday 12th May
AMEC 315.75 6.9 2.19%
REXAM 463.25 9.58 2.07%
Lookers 295.5 7.7 2.61%
Severfield-Rowen 389.5 10.75 2.76%
Metalrax Group 90 3.75 4.17%
Wensum Company 84.5 4.2 4.97%
Beattie (James) 131.5 8.4 6.39%
Booth Industries Group 29.5 5 16.95%

Melnibone - 25 Apr 2004 17:26 - 6 of 20

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Evening all, what a gorgeous weekend this has been.

Still no firm convictions for these markets.
We made a lower swing low in March, that was arrested by the 200 Day EMA.
But we then went on to make a higher swing high in April.

Markets are certainly showing strength, but we are near the highs,
so unless we get a breakout above 4600 I'll be coy at holding any
longer term longs. Will stick to scalping.

S@P needs to stay above 1034 to remain Bullish, IMHO, and at the
moment it is. So we could see some initial strength at the start
of the week which would fit in with Croc's trend channels.

I see you've got the Delorean fixed, Croc. ;-)
Giving times for the Dow to rise after, eh!
Better watch out for Tom H., he'll think you've been hacking
into his MarketMap on TT. :-))

Melnibone.

little woman - 25 Apr 2004 20:00 - 7 of 20

Evening all

I've got a few plans for the morning, but will let you know afterwards!

Crocodile - 25 Apr 2004 21:26 - 8 of 20

Tom's a good friend and likes a drink or two!
D.

ThePlayboy - 26 Apr 2004 07:04 - 9 of 20

Updated 4/23 for Monday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 4/26
UP Above 10,500
DN Below 10,400

Consolidating
Dow holds at highs, forms clear range to watch.

From prior commentary, "...An upside break through the top of the range at 10,500 will likely fuel an even sharper advance in the medium term...However, we could see further activity within the range before a break occurs.."
The Dow held on to yesterday's gains today, but tacking on 12 points and holding at the highs of the recent upmove, seen in the15 and 60 Minute Charts. The index has formed a clear range at the highs just beneath the lower boundary of the wide, bullish consolidation, seen in the Daily and 60 Minute Charts.

The fact that the Dow is consolidating at the highs from 10,400 to 10,500 indicates strength heading into Monday's market. An upside break through 10,500 will likely spark a significant rise in the market, as a break here would also cause a break from the bullish range from the Daily Chart.

However, today's sideways movement between 10,400 and 10,500 could spark even further sideways activity within this range before a clean break occurs. Also, be aware that a break either way from this range could ignite movement. A downside break from the consolidation at 10,400 should make for another push lower toward recent lows at around 10,250.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow ended the day within a tight range from 10,458 to 10,483, seen in the 1 Minute Chart. Watch for a break from this range for direction at the Open Monday morning.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we closed Longs this morning at 10,450, which gave us a nice 110 point gain for the trade. We later entered Short at 10,431, but stopped out with a 20 point stops. No other trades were triggered and we are now out of the market. We will watch 10,400 down, and 10,500 up Monday, using 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P held at the highs throughout the session today, forming the beginning of a nice continuation pattern, which implies strength. Look for a break from the consolidation for direction Monday. *

Summary

The Dow pulled back slightly off yesterday's highs this morning, but ultimately held above the key 10,400 level, forming the framework for a continuation pattern. Watch for a break from the consolidation for movement Monday, with 10,500 being the key to another sharp advance

Crocodile - 26 Apr 2004 07:38 - 10 of 20

Morning all, the 10 Day Intraday & Dividend news are now available as selections on the header.

roma - 26 Apr 2004 07:46 - 11 of 20

Morning all

Crocodile - 26 Apr 2004 08:32 - 12 of 20

Morning Roma
Short Persimmon 691.5, seemed a good price.

Crocodile - 26 Apr 2004 08:45 - 13 of 20

26/04 08:00 ANALYST RATINGS CHANGES AS OF 0700 GMT

BROKER & NEW RATING (FROM) TARGET (PREVIOUS)
COMPANY
=========================================================
Citigroup Smith Barney:
Alcatel Hold (Sell)
=========================================================
CSFB:
Rottneros Outperform (Underperform)
M-Real Outperform (Underperform)
WH Smith Neutral 355P (240P)
Publicis Neutral
Cattles Outperform 426P
Provident Fin Outperform 893P
London Scottish Outperform 164P
AEM Milano Underperform EUR1.45
=========================================================
JP Morgan:
Allianz Neutral (Overweight)
SEB Neutral (Overweight)
Centrica Underweight (Neutral) 215P
=========================================================
Lehman Bros:
DaimlerChrysler Equal-Weight (Underweight)
Infineon Equal-Weight (Overweight)
Endesa Overweight (Equal-Weight)
=========================================================
UBS:
Persimmon Buy (Neutral)
Atos Origin Neutral (Buy)
LogicaCMG Neutral (Buy)
Legal & General 118P (123P)
=========================================================

Crocodile - 26 Apr 2004 09:04 - 14 of 20

Long FTSE 4574 folowing German IFO numbers

Crocodile - 26 Apr 2004 09:11 - 15 of 20

Covered FTSE+6, Thank you Germany

jj50 - 26 Apr 2004 09:14 - 16 of 20

Morning all.

little woman - 26 Apr 2004 09:30 - 17 of 20

Morning all,

The investment club decided to buy some RMC & STAN, and I managed to get both under our target price.

Crocodile - 26 Apr 2004 13:32 - 18 of 20

Short Cairn & Closed flat

stockbunny - 26 Apr 2004 15:08 - 19 of 20

Nice broker upgrade for CTT (Cattles) 426p...that would be nice!!!
Thanks Croc as always for all the info, you're a star!

little woman - 26 Apr 2004 16:23 - 20 of 20

Been out for the last couple of hours - didn't miss much!
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