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For the "Woodstock of capitalism" All about my journey to the Omaha, Nebraska on the weekend of May 1st 2004 to attended Berkshire Hathaway AGM and meet Warren Buffett. The second richest person in the world, legendary investor and somebody I look to for inspiration. My name is Peter Webb. I have been an active private investor since 1990 and enjoy writing and teaching about value investing & similar styles. Learn more about me here. INTRODUCTION If Warren Buffett is a religion then I must be a disciple. Today starts a long journey, or maybe we should call it a pilgrimage, to see the sage of Omaha, The chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and legendary investor, Warren Buffett. A typical English morning sees me set off from the U.K. It is damp and dreary and the sun is struggling to rise and make any impact on the day. But my journey really started long before I woke up this morning. Ten years ago I was in Houston Airport when I picked up a book about somebody I had heard about but knew little of. Knowing I had many hours of flight time ahead of me I thought I should use my time constructively and so it was that I was introduced to the world of Warren Buffett. ABOUT BUFFETT AND BERKSHIRE By now the story should be familiar to most of us but for the uninitiated here is an abridged summary of his career.
One of his early purchases was a textile mill called Berkshire Hathaway. It was selling at a large discount to its net asset value. Later Buffett would say 'It is better to buy a great business at a fair price than a fair business at a great price'. Buffett bought the stock at an average price of around $16 and while the original textile mill no longer exists the company is still going strong. If you wish to buy shares in Berkshire Hathaway today you will have to part with nearly $100,000 for each share. The market capitalisation of Berkshire is now around $120b. Such is the scale of his success that each May bank holiday Omaha becomes the focus of much attention as thousands of shareholders flock to Buffett's home town of Omaha to experience and share with others the thrill of being a Berkshire Hathaway shareholder. Buffett and his partner Charlie Munger host the best attended AGM in the world and answer questions about the company investing world in general. That is my destination. IN TRANSIT I arrive safely in Dallas to the comfort of warm sun but despite checking in to my connecting flight to Omaha before most Americans woke up I find myself fighting for space on the plane as the airline has overbooked the flight. An obvious mistake with so many people heading inbound that night. Despite the tempting offer of $300 and various other titbits for a flight tomorrow morning, I talk to a 'local' on flight into Omaha who fills me in on the where to go and not to go. The local people I speak to on the flight are complimentary about Buffett the person and his achievements. As we fly into Omaha my fellow passenger points out a large coal powered fire station owned by a Buffet subsidiary. As I glance over the landscape I wonder what else Buffett could buy with a company worth $120b and with a cash pile of over $30b. On the way to the hotel I see I spot an advertising hording with a protest aimed a Buffett. 'Warren, Your grill is killing our chill', it would not be the first protest I would see this weekend. I ask our driver to explain. She goes into great depth about how 'DQ' ( Dairy queen, Another Buffett purchase ) franchisee's are protesting about having to adopt an edict from central office about installing and upgrading equipment to allow sales of hot food as well as Ice cream. Consummate with the likes of a business analyst she wraps up the conversation with a summary of the terms of the offer to 'DQ' franchises. 'Its a lot of money' she says, 'But they are offering to spread the cost over many years, I think that's fair and besides I am sure the business will benefit' After reaching the hotel I quickly, unpack, iron a shirt, have a quick shower and head down to reception (The lobby). The festivities are due to start immediately with an evening cocktail reception at Borshiems jewellery and gift retailer, another Berkshire subsidiary. On reaching the hotel lobby I find a crowd of Berkshire shareholders all waiting for the shuttle and when one arrives, its capacity is well short of our requirements. So, not wanting to waste time a group of us grab a passing cab agree to share the cost. Jeremy and James have flown in from San Diego and Matt is from New York but is a well travelled person it seems so maybe home is really the cabin of plane somewhere over the US. We hit it off immediately after the informal introductions start a friendship that will last all weekend and no doubt much longer. SHAREHOLDER COCKTAIL PARTY AND BORSHEIMS We arrive at Borshiems and immediately start checking out the store. After reading so much about the store I am surprised to find out it is just like any other but I guess retailing is pretty much a 'standard' art wherever you go. One thing that is different tonight though is that there are plenty of millionaires in town to boost the coffers of anybody associated with the weekends activities. Borshiems is packed a situation no doubt helped by the 30% discount on offer. I ask an assistant why I can see no Rolex on display. She explains that as a premium brand Rolex wont sell to Borshiems who are a well known discounter.
It's getting late and we need to head back to the hotel for we have an early start tomorrow. James, Jeremy, Matt and I head 'Hijack' a cab waiting for a 'VIP' who has failed to turn up for his ride. On the short journey back we hear from another cab driver who has driven Buffett to one location or another in Omaha, In fact we haven't found anybody who hasn't driven him. All the local people I have met have nothing but admiration for Buffett and his values. Regardless of their position in life there appears to be no resentment of his wealth or achievement. I reach the hotel and drift off to sleep some thirty hours after waking up this morning back in the UK. THE BIG DAY And so begins the big day. I rise at 5:30am to ensure I have plenty of time to meet my new friends and head downtown to the Qwest centre where this years meeting is. The centre was built last year and estimated numbers of attendance is close to 20,000 people. Without its construction I doubt if Omaha could stage such an event in a reasonable manner. We arrive around 6:45am. Two main entrances serve the building for upper and lower levels, already two l The doors open and the lines move quickly through the building filtering people to their seats or to the lower floor conference centre where a 'Buffet fest' of Berkshire corporations have their wares on display. Here you can buy insurance, books, houses, candy, clothing the list is exhaustive. Dotted around the room are a variety of oddities including a 6ft tall Gecko who will sell you car insurance if you are not careful.
At 8:30 the lights dim and we are underway! First off is the company video, buts is it like no company video I have ever seen. It represents an hour of self depreciating humour and frivolity, inter-dispersed with serious messages and brief promotion of the companies products. First up Warren singing and strumming a ukulele, then a cartoon parody of 'The terminator' in which we are transported into a terrible future where Microsoft, Starbucks and Wall Mart have merged to form a mega corporation which threatens to take over and rule the world. Buffett and his partner Munger are transported to the past to put an end to this evil only to be followed by 'The Warrenator' (Arnold Schwarzenegger) who is intent on stopping Munger and Buffett in their quest. There follows parody after parody of hilarious mickey taking of all aspects of Berkshire the company, Bill gates Eventually the 'Warrenator' is despatched when his truck crashes after a can of shaken coke smears his windscreen. The can is thrown by the 80 year old Munger who is riding pillion on a motorcycle driven by Buffett. Schwarzenegger (Now governor of California of course) lies decapitated in his robot form with his head uttering the words. 'No new taxes, No new taxes.....' With the 'Warrenator' dealt with a real life Munger and Buffett (Dressed in dark glasses and Leathers) sit before a congressional hearing on the 'Microwallbucks' merger and, Thanks to some real life footage and careful editing, destroy Bill Gates case and the merger collapses. The future is saved! The future may be safe but the audience isn't as they are still crying with laughter. Several more hilarious clips follow including a court case in which Buffett and Gates argue out a $2 bet in front of a judge which Buffett's asserts he won fairly from Gates during a bridge match in which gates crashed his PC on purpose to avoid losing. Then a hush falls across the audience as the big screen shows Buffett's testimony during the inquiry into the near collapse of Salomon brothers. He became interim chairman and chief executive of Salomon Brothers in 1991-92 during a shake-up resulting from illegal bond-market activities. He resigned from these offices and appointed successors when the federal government's investigation of Salomon Brothers was completed. As it ends a spontaneous round of applause ripples through the arena. Further light-heartedness follows with Buffett and Schwarzenegger arguing in the gym about proposition 13 (UK readers need not concern themselves with Californian legislation). Then the hour of fun ends with a mass sing along session with thousands singing 'I like to buy the world a stock', a well written parody of 'I'd like to buy the world a coke'. My 'Englishness' prevents me from joining in! THE QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS COMMENCE.... After the formalities of a normal company AGM are out of the way the meeting opens up to a six hour questions and answers session in an open forum. From the start the questions follow a similar feel as each person stands up to the microphone and usually there follows a short 'Confession' of faith in the cause before the actual question is forthcoming. Some are good, some are way too long and some are just plain bizarre! Certainly if you are to stand in front of nearly 20,000 people and very rich men you should at least attempt to you yourself justice. The following is a summary of some of the questions and answers during this session. Buffett sees increasing inflationary pressures Buffett explains what he likes to see in a company. 'We are looking for companies with inflationary pricing ability, a company that can increase its prices at least in line with inflation....Inflation is the enemy of investors...We clearly see the US facing inflationary pressures' Distaste for the sell side of the industry 'We don't speak to 'Analysts' we prefer to speak to shareholders. Analyst are on the sell side and we don't need to spend time speaking to these. When we buy a company the managers no longer need to devote time speaking to them, they can get on with running the business.' 'In fact we have a very small head office, No HR, no legal, no consultants, No compensation consultants' Munger interrupts, 'I would rather throw a viper down my shirt than hire a compensation consultant. Asset allocation is nonsense 'We don't believe in asset allocation its nonsense. We buy what makes sense today. We have no idea what is happening tomorrow so we don't try and make decisions based on that.' Junk bonds 'When we bought junk bonds in mid fall / summer 2002 we did so because it made sense. Not because we had some check list or rule about where we were going to put money' 'Junk bonds were on a 30-40% yield to maturity so we bought. (Those we could understand) We just looked at them and were screaming at us BUY, BUY, BUY!!! Twelve months later some were yielding just 6%....Prices do some amazing things in capital markets.' Derivatives Munger and Buffett's dislike for derivatives is well documented and is reiterated. 'As we have said before we expect that the chances of a major blow up in derivatives are quite possible in the next ten years or so..... We have seen both sides of a derivatives contract book a profit; in the real world you simply can not have that situation.' Two trillion default Later in the day Buffett touches on the near collapse of Salomon brothers and also the 87 crash to highlight the potential danger. 'In '91 I had to see a judge and tell him if we went bankrupt we would default on $2t.... That could have caused a lot of problems to a lot of people in the financial system' 'In '87 some wired money didnt reach the Chicago exchange in time. It did eventually arrive but would have brought down the entire system if it had not' 'Derivative returns were lumpy; more derivatives were created as a way to smooth out returns, now they appear to have morphed into lying' Bill Gates (Microsoft) to take over as Berkshire Hathaway CEO A question from the audience suggests Bill Gates as a potential candidate for Buffett's role when Buffett retires or dies. Buffett does not immediately dismiss the suggestion. 'Did Bill put you up to this?' 'I am sure Bill Gates is able to do my job. I am sure I couldn't do his....We are in a better position than fifteen year's ago to get somebody to run the company; we have four or five people who could do my job. Some would be better than me at certain parts of role but I am probably better at other parts.... We are in a good position to appoint a successor... We have people who know and understand the businesses.' Concern is raised later about how the ideals and morality of the company will continue. Buffett's points out the use of non executive directors on the board such as Warren's family will ensure continuity. Continuing the theme on succession. 'That fact aside security analysis is the same today as 50 years ago.' You need the right temperament, you need to read a lot, and you need a business mind. You don't need a high IQ; you need discipline more than intellect.' Isaac Newton should have been a stockbroker Buffett explains that intellect is not a prerequisite for investment success. 'Isaac Newton spent a lot of time trying to turn lead into gold; He should have been a stockbroker. In fact he did lose a lot of money in the south sea bubble. Genes or intellect do not make a good investment head.' Making mistakes 'Yes, I make mistakes and I am sure I will make more. I thought Wall Mart was a good purchase and Charlie said he didn't think it was a bad idea, which coming from him is just uncommon praise. So we bought a little, it went up; I thought it may pull back a little, who knows what I thought.... And that has cost us to date $10b' Munger continues... 'We are more likely to make these kinds of mistakes than those that cost us a packet' Diversity is wrong Now comes a personal paradox of 'Berkyism', Diversification. Each year I construct some broad portfolios based on some filters I create. This has worked for many years and while not perfect it has produced a good return for me. Munger's view is different; though I am sure it is used with a vastly different selection technique. 'Diversification is wrong' says Munger, 'If you are intelligent enough and have thought about it there is no reason to be timid. The best way to minimise risk is to think.... Asset allocation is nonsense we keep to short term investments until we see an opportunity then we take it. In my view asset allocation is just more merchandising by the sell side' Corporate profitability wont change that much A question is fielded from the floor on whether productivity gains in general and through technology will increase the percentage share of corporate profits (related to GDP) in the US. 'No, I believe that the percentage figure may change a little but Technology detracts as well as adds to profitability. Such is the nature of competition that generally it is the consumer who benefits from gains and not businesses. All improvements pass to competitors eventually. Often we install something that is supposed to generate a 40% ROI but it never does because soon after we buy it so do our competitors. It's like a crowd of people watching a show. Somebody stands on tip toes to get a better view and soon the rest of the crowd gets on tip toes too and we are back to the same situation as before' From a personal viewpoint and having worked for and with many technology companies in my time I can concur with Buffett on this point. While technology changes the way we do business it does not change the imperatives of business. Funds of funds Both Munger and Buffett are intolerant on packaged funds especially hedge funds, Munger explains. 'Why somebody would want to pay a fee to somebody who pays and few to somebody and so on, why would you invest with somebody like that?' A later shareholder questions points out that with Buffett's salary at $100k and roughly 1m 'A' shares outstanding, Buffett was managing each $100k (Current price of an 'A' share) for 10 cents. He makes Buffett an offer of 25 cents. 'I've said before I love this job so much I would be willing to pay to do it, besides I receive social now' at which point the audience bursts into laughter. Low probability events Buffett - We spend a lot of time thinking about events that could go wrong in a very big and very unexpected way. Financial markets have a lot more ability to do that. We think of ways of trying to try and protect us against those events. Munger - The temporary collapse of junk bonds. Was a strange thing, these kinds of things pop back quite quickly and it was absolute chaos at the bottom. As much chaos as you can have and of course this can happen in common stocks as well as junk bonds. So if we look at the next fifty years we have to expect these types of events to come along Buffett - We just dont believe in a lot of leverage. You may have thought that junk bonds were wonderful at 15%, which they would have been because they eventually went to 6% but if you owed a lot of money in-between you wouldnt have been around for the party at the end We believe that almost anything can happen in financial markets and the only way the clever get clobbered is through the use of leverage. If you can hold then it is less of a problem. You can play it out 'If you look at the junk bond market there was lots of money and lots of highly paid people studying it for some time and yet we had some crazy swings out there, It just doesnt make sense but the market still did it. If you are leveraged then these sorts of things can wipe you out Royal Dutch / Shell reserve overstatements Questions of corporate governance are raised and Buffett admits that they didn't guess or figure there could be a problem at Shell. Why do people sell to Berkshire? I have often wondered why people sell to Berkshire Hathaway. Everybody knows Buffett will only offer a price that offers an attractive return so why do people sell at that price when they know they are being Low-balled. This is especially relevant with the rise in activity in private equity funds. Buffett - Sure, Private equity funds are a form of competition to Berkshire, You can buy common stock cheap thanks to the same forces that we saw in junk bonds that we talked about earlier. When you are in an auction, market prices can do strange things. When you buy a business you are buying at a negotiated price so the prices are always higher than purchasing stock but still we prefer to buy whole business rather than just common stock even if the common stock is slightly cheaper. People sell to us because we are one of a kind; we will buy a business and still let the original owner run it like they always have. If they have a tax reason or a family situation and they need to sell it off, they may not want to auction it off like a piece of meat to some guy who will leverage it up and sell if off in a few years. They come to us and they know they will get the result they want. its kind of silly to auction of your daughter to the highest bidder, If you have invested a lot of time and effort in to get to this stage why do it? My promises are about as good you will get in this arena Munger - Its interesting that we should have this competition for so long and yet we still manage to buy a few things Immigration Munger's response is tort and firm, Only if we only have quality immigrants. Munger is dismissive of any others. Buffett I think this is where Charlie and I may differ We started a long time ago in this country with a very small population and now we have hundreds of millions and 30% of world GDP. I dont know if immigration is responsible for the incredible record of this country this but I suspect it was. Ethical products Do Buffett and Munger believe in ethical products a shareholder asks citing health food as an example. Both make light of eating healthy. All through the session Buffett can be seen drinking Coke and eating sweets. Buffett Its about optimal choices, Broccoli and carrot juice and I live to 85, Peanut brittle and Coke 75, I will stay with my peanut brittle Munger Costco is the place where I like to shop. Munger is a big fan of the Costco business as well as a shopper and a director. They have these wonderfully marbled filet steaks. The idea of eating whole grain and washing it down with carrot juice has never appealed to me. Buffett We never have arguments about where to eat! On a serious note. Later on they admit to having turned down a company based on ethics. They never mentioned names but various clues from the description gives a hint of a Tobacco stock and whispers sweep across the arena. Insurance business - National indemnity Buffett gives a presentation on National Indemnity in which he explains how, contrary to other insurance businesses, he is determined to not write premiums at a loss. If the market declines in profitability he asserts to the staff that they will not be sacked for lack of writing new business. The premium volume on the chart swings wildly all over the place and for some periods the premium volume declines for years on end. I dont think there is a public company that could survive that volume falling year after year after year.We could write a billion in business any month we choose we just have to offer a silly price. If you offer a silly price brokers will find you at 4:30 in the morning in the middle of the ocean All this, generally, adds up to fairly consistent underwriting profit. In other words people are paying Buffett to hold their money. Not only does Buffett get a float, free use of other peoples money while an insurance policy is in force and not paid out, but he makes money on it before he even invests it! China There was lots of publicity when Buffett bought PetroChina, was this a play on the growing Chinese economy? 'We chose to invest in this Chinese company simply because the opportunity was too good to ignore. Explains Buffett, We accept that there are risks to doing this but we did our sums and it worked out. They agree to pay 45% of profits out each year and we figure we can buy a good company for maybe a third of what we could elsewhere. This isn't a play on China just a good buy. Economic prospects One area I have struggled with is external risks to my investments. I am desperate to ask Buffett & Munger about how they rationalise economic and social political risk. Soon after I tabled my question to a steward somebody else asks exactly the same thing. Buffett I would say at any given point, even when stocks were their cheapest you could find an equally impressive number of negative factors. You could have sat down in 1974 when stocks were screaming bargains and you could have written down all kinds of things that would have caused you to say the future was going to be terrible We dont pay ANY attention to that.Our underlying premise is that this country will do very well and in particular it will do well for business. There are always problems in the future and there are always opportunities in the future, generally the opportunities outweigh the problems and we expect that to continue. I dont believe that there has ever been a time when we didnt buy something because of external conditions, neither did we buy something mediocre simply because we thought the prospects were great. In my view it wont be the economy that does in investors over a 5 or 10 or 20 year period, it will be the investors themselves Munger We have said before that we didnt expect the returns in the recent past to be repeated in the near futureCertain stretches are easier than others. Robert Maxwell At one point Buffett laments his time in Salomon Brothers and his encounter with Robert Maxwell. Investment banks chase money because they are commissioned. Salomon continued to chase his money despite him being dubious. It was like he had a neon sign on him that said Crook. Despite having three directors on the board and being majority shareholders the underwriting committee still approved the transaction against our will. He even claimed to be a Berkshire shareholder so I checked the shareholders register and couldnt see his name on the records 'A little while later he was found bobbing around in the sea Other topics Other items that make the agenda are Phil Fisher who died recently, Google of all things and stock buy backs. During the proceedings it is somewhat like a double act. Buffett laughs and wise cracks his way through the proceedings and it obvious he is really enjoying himself. Munger is a little more reserved and distant, sometimes the sole contribution to a questions is, I have nothing to add to that Its a fascinating day! As though the Q&A session is not enough during the intervals I have bumped into authors, Berkshire managers and been entangled in complex but rewarding conversations with other shareholders. Many questions have been asked and many answers have been forthcoming. It is time to close out the day and Buffett and Munger thank everybody for coming and wish them well on their travels. UP CLOSE AND PERSONAL For me however the day has not quite ended. I split off from the guys and join other international investors who have been invited to meet Warren and Charlie personally. Despite a slightly chaotic start thanks to security things calm down and I eventually get to meet both. However having personal belongings removed and being monitored by eight or so bodyguards somewhat limits your opportunity, especially when they say, No Cameras, shame. I approach Munger, Hes seem pretty frail when I meet him and shake hands, I notice he suffers from arthritis but I guess if I were 80 I wouldnt exactly be running around the place. Buffett by contrast could be the same age as me as he chirps and chortles his way through the conversation, is this man 73? Its an enthusiasm and image that will stay with me for some time. Its a strange feeling to be in the presence of men worth ten of billions and yet they are not too distant or above All too soon my time is up and the bodyguard makes his presence felt to ensure I let the next person through. Before I leave though I pull two fake millionaire dollar bills out my pocket and get both to sign one each. Its a pleasure to be a shareholder, I tell them. Rather bizarrely 40 mins later when I am waiting for a Shuttle bus I catch Munger walking past me on the way to his car. I have to do a double take as I can not believe I would see such a scene in the UK. Some one of Celebrity status and very wealthy walking down the sidewalk to his car which is parked amongst where all the other cars were in the main parking lot. Maybe its just that the whole attitude out here is different? I found out later that Buffett is in the telephone book as well. Again I cant imagine looking up a famous footballer and finding his name and number and address in the local directory. I resist the temptation to phone his number!!! NEBRASKA FUNITURE MART, DOWN TOWN AND GORAT'S Via the hotel I meet up with the guys at the Nebraska furniture Mart, another Buffett get together. Nebraska furniture mart is badly
Downtown we find a decent Irish pub and settle down for a drink. We are all busy discussing our thoughts for the day and the mood of the moment is the question, What would Warren do? Empowered by this question Jeremy asks the barmaid for a drink and says What would Warren have? to which the bar maid responds, Err. Warren wouldnt come here!!! We stay there for the night mixing with the locals and tie up with two of them in their car to cross the state line into Iowa to continue the night a bit longer before eventually returning to the hotel in time to get a at least some sleep before the next day starts. The following day we make our final passage into becoming fully fledged Berkshire shareholders by eating out at Buffetts favourite INITIATION COMPLETE With our initiation complete we head off in different directions on the long journey home. Its been a tiring but enthralling weekend, new friendships have been made and no doubt many lives have changed from the experience. I have certainly enjoyed it and while I was knowledgeable about Berkshire Hathaway before I arrived I have discovered a new depth and breath to my appreciation of this company and everything that it does, how it does it and what it stands for. I feel energised and enthusiastic for my prospects going forward. I look forward to meeting similar faces next year when we can all compare and contrast our fortunes in similar surroundings. |