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Crocs Traders Thread Monday 7th June     

Martini - 06 Jun 2004 17:17

 

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1 Day     2 Day  5 Day   UK News
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Gold/Bond Pivots Markets  Futures Translate
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Day 2 Day 5 Day US News

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S&P Futures

Nikkei +208 Hang Seng +150  Asia News
  DAX    CAC     Euro News
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InterimsFinals ACL : Acal AKR : Akers Biosciences BHG : Belhaven Group CRE : Creston HCEG : Healthcare Enterprise Group ILX : Intellexis IXF : IFX Group MTO : MITIE Group MYW : Merrydown TTH : Top Ten HoldingsAGM / EGM ENK : European Nickel RWEV : Rowe Evans InvestmentsEconomic UK May CIPS services report (0830 GMT) UK BRC May shop price index (around 0930 GMT) Company Alloy ALOYE Blyth Inc. BTH Bob Evans Farms BOBE Dave & Buster's DAB Offshore Logistic OLG Retail Ventures, Inc. RVI UTi Worldwide UTIWEconomic 8:00 PM Consumer Credit for Apr Mkt Expects $5.5B Economic

Martini - 06 Jun 2004 17:17 - 3 of 22

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SUNDAY TIMES * Engineering Employers Federation backs another rise in UK rates sooner rather than later - * GLAXOSMITHKLINE faces criminal action in Britain over suicide pills, anti-depressant Seroxat - * Philip Green plots all-cash offer of more than 8 bln stg for M&S, giving shareholders around 357.5 pence per share - * Private equity firm HG Capital offers 250 mln stg for HAYS mail unit - * QUEENS MOAT HOUSES close to sale of Dutch chain, Bilderberg to Bridgepoint Capital - * Lazard hoping to push the price of Telegraph Group bidding war past record-breaking 700 mln stg level - Agenda: M&S (If Philip Green cash raise the backing for a full cash offer topping 380 pence per share then it will be really interesting; dont put it past him); GLAXOSMITHKLINE (Elliot Spitzer is not to be underestimated; shareholders must hope that the US FDA is prepared to support J-P Garniers interpretation of the evidence); BAE SYSTEMS (ALVIS coup sealed by smart piece of work in persuading City hedge funds) -- Judgment Day: HALFORDS (Andy Brough of Schroders says dont pay above 240p; Tim Steer of New Star says buy at 260p like everyone else -- Inside the City: JARVIS (US hedge fund K Capital Partners picks up 12 pct stake in JARVIS); BABCOCK/PETERHOUSE (Take the cash; if the BABCOCK bid is rejected, PETERHOUSE shares will fall like a stone)
SUNDAY TELEGRAPH* Bloomberg has by-passed rules on foreign firms donating to UK political parties and has made cash donations to Labour and to the Liberal Democrats - * DAILY MAIL settles for minority stake of around 25 pct in Telegraph Group and no management or editorial role if its joint bid with CVC succeeds - * FSA finds PACE MICRO guilty of breaking stock market rules - * GLAXOSMITHKLINE CEO J-P Garnier hits back at Elliott Spitzer over Paxil fraud allegations - * Kazakh copper miner plans 1 bln stg London Stock Exchange debut - * PLUSNET plans for AIM listing is biggest ISP float since the end of the dotcom boom - * QUEENS MOAT HOUSE picks its preferred break-up bidders - * Stuart Rose was an insider in Philip Greens M&S bid plan - Blue chip values: EXEL (sell); NORTHERN FOODS (keep buying) -- Look Whos Trading: PILLAR PROPERTY (CEO and chairman exercise options and sell holdings) -- Small Cap comment: WOOLWORTHS (buy); PALADIN RESOURCES (buy); BELLHAVEN GROUP (hold on); HUNTLEIGH TECHNOLOGY (buy) -- Breaking Views: M&S (Philip Green should kick out his private equity backers and give M&S shareholders an opportunity to ride on his coat-tails with more than the measly 25 pct equity stub; cash offering could still be 290 pence per share) -- City Profile: Philip Nolan, chief executive of EIRCOM -- Edmond Jacksons Taking Stock: 3DM WORLDWIDE (look beneath the surface of a bullish statement to consider what might be a fair value); EXPRO INTERNATIONAL (keep an eye on co.; while the markets perception seems fair, it could warrant caution on a longer term view); PLANESTATION (grant of options to CEO and subsequent placing suggest the underlying prospects are attractive) * Two former directors of T&S Stores in bid to snatch Londis from Musgrave -
OBSERVER  * Ex-Selfridges boss Vittorio Radice next in line for axe at M&S - * Labour ready to block DAILY MAILs bid for Telegraph Group - * Philip Green ready to raise M&S bid by at least 1 bln stg, but could soon face competition from a club of venture capitalists led by KKR and Carlysle Group - * SMG ready to sell Virgin Radio station - * The BBC may sell its magazines arm, Britains third largest - Observer Throg Street: ITV (time to take a fresh look at ITV because the shares are looking cheap); TESCO (stand by for another set of stonking figures); CAIRN ENERGY (whose eyes are on Cairn?)
MAIL ON SUNDAY * Philip Green to seek backing from M&Ss US shareholders - * UK government secretly urged BAE SYSTEMS to launch last-minute bid for ALVIS - Midas: XANSA (poised for market recovery; shares are worth buying) -- Midas Update: M&S (patience is the key to rewards) -- Companies ad Markets: BRADFORD & BINGLEY (buyers bridle at Charcol figures); BARCLAYS (considering cashing in on its global property portfolio); TT ELECTRONICS (Bridgewell to take over from HSBC as co.s broker) -- Secret Dealings: SPORTINGBET (New Star fund managers buy in) -- Taking Stock: Bid fever overheats shares in the High Street
THE BUSINESS * EC moves step closer to allowing the trading of radio spectrum 3G licences - * EU costs Britain 33 bln stg a year: Civitas study - * Gordon Brown planning to approve 7.7 bln stg in PFI contracts this year - * Number of UK casinos expected to double, gaming turnover set to soar beyond 10 bln stg: analysts - * Philip Green told Stuart Rose: you should joined my M&S bid - * Private equity firms stalk troubled MFI FURNITURE - * UK concern as Buy America tag surfaces again in next years US defence authorisation bill - * US profits threatened by surge in wage costs: leading economists -
SUNDAY EXPRESS * Disney considering selling its 25 pct stake in GMTV to ITV - * Philip Green plots 9.5 bln stg all-cash bid for M&S, worth 421 pence per share - * UK manufacturing at serious risk from rapid increase in wholesale steel prices: CBI - * Unions beg MG Rover to keep production of new cars in the UK -
INDEPENDENT * BHP BILLITON on blacklist of ethics firm GES Investment Services - * FSA drops hardline stance on mutual insurers and with-profits funds - * George Bush to call for 90 pct write-off of Iraq debt at this weeks G8 summit - * ITV faces 100 mln stg shortfall in advertising revenues, according to media buyers - * SRA to be stripped of power in UK rail shake-up - * US buyout firm KKR is considering a bid for MATALAN - * Philip Green may quit M&S battle as city rejects stub equity plan -
FT * COUNTRYWIDE ASSURED eyes BRADFORD & BINGLEYs estate agents chain - * Ex-Sun editor, David Yelland quits NEWS International to join PR firm Weber Shandwick - * Financial advisers have stopped giving guidance to investors on a wide range of complex investment products because they cannot get indemnity insurance - * INDEPENDENT NEWS delays Sir Tony OReilly top jobs split - * M&S chief Stuart Rose expects Philip Green to improve his proposed 7 bln stg-plus bid for the troubled retailer next week - * MPs urge cut in tax compliance costs - * Speculation mounting that Philip Green is considering an approach to the billionaire Reuben brothers to ask them to invest in proposed 8 bln stg M&S bid - * The BBC has agreed to pay Channel 4s headhunting fees to find a replacement for Mark Thompson, whom it poached to be its director general - * The Money Portal understood to be interested in buying the investment platform of EGG - * Structural cracks hold up sales of Lloyds of London building -
INVESTORS CHRONICLE Tips:Buy: Findel(FDL) at 369p - TT Electronics (TTG) at 145p - Shiloh (SLH.L) at 129p Longbridge(LGI) at 89p - Toad(TOA) at 18.75p.Sell: Stanley Leisure (SLY.L) at 463p.
SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week:Buy: Mean Fiddler (MEF) at 59.5p - Business Serve (BRV) at 70p- City Lofts (CTF) at 94p Martini's Tupperware Tips: Always wipe the inside of your Tupperware lunchbox with a slice of lemon to keep your sarnies fresh.

Martini - 06 Jun 2004 17:17 - 4 of 22

Many thanks to BrianTrayda for stepping forward to be this weeks guest Thoughter

I hope all the information is right but it is always difficult to see errors in your own work.

So if you spot any major errors of omissions please let me know.

Best Regards and Good Hunting
M

daves dazzlers - 06 Jun 2004 18:08 - 5 of 22

spot on martini many thanks.

Teddy Bear - 06 Jun 2004 18:20 - 6 of 22

Martini

Wonderful work and many thanks .

teddy

jj50 - 06 Jun 2004 20:43 - 7 of 22

Martini

Great work and thanks to BT for his interesting "diarist" and "thoughter" comments.

Melnibone - 06 Jun 2004 21:37 - 8 of 22

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Excellent work, as usual, Martini and BrianTrayda. Thank you.

I've put a chart up that shows two Ma's that I look at in conjuction
with the Macd.

When ever the index tracks through the 20Day Sma it carries on through
the 40Day Sma and the Macd crosses the signal.

As you can see above, we are trying to break up through the 20 with
the 40 sitting above it. The 40 is also below the 4500 resistance which
is also the gap open down point, that I keep banging on about, that started
this long period of range trading.
The Macd is also just starting to cross the signal to the upside with
what looks like the start of a positive divergence.

This says to me that there is a possibility, this week, that we at least
test the 4500 resistance. Barring any 'Events' that is.

Unless Asia rallys tonight, we should open a little down tomorrow.
GSK is getting hit again with more bad news from a UK inquiry. Also
folk are starting to twig on to the fact that the Eliot 'Ness' Spitzer
action in the US will also attract litigation 'Ambulance Chasers'. The
US aren't backwards in coming forwards if there is a chance of some
fat law suits. This could put a cloud over GSK for a considerable period
when you remember that the US tax folk are also after Billions.

GSK has a large effect on the FTSE, so if it starts to drop it may
drag the FTSE index into a buying opportunity if my MA/Macd scenario
outlined above has any merit.

Just musings, not predictions. Will let the market guide me as usual but
will watch to see if this pans out and try to take advantage of it.

Melnibone.

Martini - 06 Jun 2004 23:21 - 9 of 22

Melnibone
Thanks for your musings very interesting.
M

Mega Bucks - 07 Jun 2004 07:19 - 10 of 22

morning campers,

long barc bby bdev cs ctm tsco wlw nas s&p...

me thinks this is going to be a blue screen day after the nikkei 300 point rise last night...

have a good day all see you at the open...

Mega...

little woman - 07 Jun 2004 08:46 - 11 of 22

Morning all,

Thanks to all, this is developing into a excellent thread - I'm sure David is looking down on us all, extremely pleased on the way you have all pulled together to keep his thread going. I don't think you'd find that on any other BB.

jj50 - 07 Jun 2004 08:49 - 12 of 22

Morning all.

Douggie - 07 Jun 2004 09:03 - 13 of 22

mornin all

Mega Bucks - 07 Jun 2004 09:31 - 14 of 22

covered BDEV + 11.5 +13 aint happy about possible rate hike this week :-)

Melnibone - 07 Jun 2004 09:32 - 15 of 22

Morning all.

I see my 20/40 Ma and Macd scenario worked out.
And a fat lot of use it was to me!!!!

Asia, bless their little white cotton socks, decided to have
a big rally.
This took the US futures up and the UK opened higher through the 20ma
and carried on through the 40 ma to close my gap at 4500.

Well those Bull horns didn't last for long. May as well put 'em back
in the loft and get the Fur and Claws out again.

We are now up at resistance with the gap closed. But, if the US does
the same we've all left a gap open behind us, lower down.
Looking for Index shorts again now, but have to be mindfull of
a range breakout higher.
Need guidance from the US, as usual. Nothing changes, does it?

Good hunting all.

Melnibone.

Mega Bucks - 07 Jun 2004 09:40 - 16 of 22

long more CTM 83.5

Fundamentalist - 07 Jun 2004 10:07 - 17 of 22

Mornin all

thanks martini and BT.

Dailos - 07 Jun 2004 11:01 - 18 of 22

VTI having a good morning :)

snoball - 07 Jun 2004 11:07 - 19 of 22

Morning.
Interesting setup you have on that FTSE chart Melnibone.

zarif - 07 Jun 2004 11:58 - 20 of 22

Morning to one and all.
Nice sunny day in costa Ellesmereport.

Martini and Bt: thanks for all the work that u have taken on and are producing Fruitful work which we the readers are finding very useful.

rgds
zarif

Melnibone - 07 Jun 2004 14:41 - 21 of 22

Glad you found it of interest, Snoball.

Check it out on the other Indices. Seems to give good
direction guidance on them as well.

Melnibone.

little woman - 07 Jun 2004 15:36 - 22 of 22

I see the FTSE has decided not to follow the US again!
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