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Traders Thread - Monday 8th November (TRAD)     

Greystone - 07 Nov 2004 13:16

Greystone - 07 Nov 2004 13:17 - 3 of 9

Greystone - 07 Nov 2004 13:17 - 4 of 9

Greystone - 07 Nov 2004 13:17 - 5 of 9

Hello Traders!

Many thanks to Hotei for another great "Thoughter's" article this weekend. I will now scurry off and find out what Dailos has been up to lately.... :-)

A busy and interesting week ahead with a couple of juicy udates expected from Marks & Sparks and Royal & Sun Alliance.... Probably with totally conflicting outlooks.

See you in the morning with the breaking news.

Happy trading!

G.

Digger - 07 Nov 2004 20:03 - 6 of 9

MARKETS
FTSE 100 4,739.8 up 11.5
FTSE 250 6,516.1 up 49.4
DJIA 10,387.54 up 72.78
Nasdaq Comp 2,038.94 up 15.31
S&P 500 1,166.17 up 4.5
Gold 432.72 usd (431.12 usd)
Oil - Brent Dec 46.42 usd (46.01 usd)

BREAKING NEWS - WEEKEND
* UNILEVER maps out a 33 bln stg colossus; Birds Eye giant may merge UK
and Dutch arms - Mail on Sunday
* Britain's largest drug company (GLAXOSMITHKLINE) drew up a secret
plan to double sales of the controversial anti-depressant Seroxat by
marketing it as a cure for a raft of less serious mental conditions -
Observer
* VODAFONE will launch its third generation mobile phone services at a
whopping cost of 22 bln stg this week - Observer
* MARKS & SPENCER chief executive Stuart Rose this weekend considering
a warning that profits will be up to 150 mln stg lower than expected
when he updates the market on Tuesday - Mail on Sunday
* MARKS & SPENCER chief executive Stuart Rose will signal the end of
the troubled store's flirtation with young fashion when he delivers a
recovery strategy to the City on Tuesday - Observer
* MARKS & SPENCER sales slump further as high street feels the housing
pinch; BRC-KPMG sales monitor likely to show that same store sales rose
by only 0.6 pct in October, compared with a rise of 2 pct in September -
Sunday Telegraph
* Fears mounting that troubled UK retailer MARKS & SPENCER may be
forced to issue a profits warning this week, amid claims by one broker
that womenswear sales are down by almost 20 pct - The Business
* MARKS & SPENCER will decide on Monday whether to release a trading
statement with next Tuesday's interim figures as the struggling
company's shares continue to tumble on fears of deteriorating sales -
Saturday Telegraph
* High street hit as shoppers stop spending; The British Retail
Consortium/KPMG Retail Sales Monitor, which will be published tomorrow,
recorded the year's lowest sales growth in October; the revelation of
almost flat like-for-like sales will raise fears that it could be a dire
Christmas for the retail sector - Sunday Times
* KINGFISHER scraps 70 head office jobs in buying and marketing at its
B&Q chain amid fears the DIY giant has suffered a sudden slowdown in
sales - mail on Sunday
* DIAGEO hit with a massive lawsuit by the government of Colombia for
allegedly threatening its national security by dealing with known
terrorists, money launderers and drug traffickers - Mail on Sunday
* The Sainsbury family would consider selling their 38 pct stake in the
ailing supermarket chain for 400 pence a share, according to sources
close to the company - Observer
* Sainsbury family seeks return of the old guard; Financial Sunday
Express understands that Lord Sainsbury of Preston Candover, who holds
around 4 pct of the company through various trusts, held recent
conversations with Robin Whitbread, a former retail director of J
SAINSBURY, to persuade him to return to the supermarket chain in an
attempt to help transform its fortunes
* PRUDENTIAL must sell EGG, its internet bank, if it is to regain the
confidence of its shareholders and support for its senior management,
institutional investors tell the embattled insurer - Sunday Times
* Prince Turki bin Nasser, until recently the deputy head of the Saudi
air force, linked to the series of police raids last week in the UK over
the alleged 60 mln stg slush fund run by BAE SYSTEMS - Independent on
Sunday
* BT GROUP set to return to the US market with the 542 mln stg
acquisition of Ifonet Serviices, a California-based telecoms service
provider - Sunday Telegraph
* BRITISH AIRWAYS promises no more fuel surcharges as profits soar -
Sunday Express
* Pension fears put Baugur's 378 mln stg takeover of THE BIG FOOD GROUP
on a knife edge - Sunday Times
* REUTERS chief executive Tom Glocer heading for a row with the City
after saying that four-fifths of the analysts who follow the information
group are no good and should do something else - Independent on Sunday
* HBOS in pole position to acquire the two Irish banks owned by
National Australia Bank; it is expected to pay up to 1.4 bln stg - The
Business
* Buyout specialist Melrose Group will launch a 650 mln stg bid for
NOVAR by the end of this week - The Business
* Head of Institute of Directors, Miles Templeman, to profit from
contentious bid; four Melrose directors could share 100 mln stg profit
from NOVAR takeover - Sunday Telegraph
* Melrose, the bid vehicle set up by former Hanson executive Chris
"Jock" Miller, expected to table a 650 mln stg bid for NOVAR - Sunday
Times
* South African mining giant HARMONY's attempt to acquire rival South
African group GOLD FIELDS for 4.4 bln stg will be dealt a blow when
Harmony will fail to secure 75 pct of shareholders' votes this Friday -
Sunday Express
* Jeff Banks, former presenter of TV's Clothes Show, to sign a deal to
sell his Jeff & Co range of clothes at discount retailer MATALAN - Mail
on Sunday
* COX INSURANCE has held takeover talks with a consortium led by Neil
Utley, the former chief executive of its core retail division who was
ousted just five months ago - Sunday Telegraph
* ENERGIS, the telecoms company chaired by Archie Norman, axes plans to
spend 140 mln stg rolling out broadband internet through BT's telephone
wires, branding it a waste of money - Independent on Sunday
* Cazenove, the City's oldest independent stockbroker, ends 181 years
of autonomy as it joins forces with JP Morgan Chase, the US's second
biggest bank by assets - Saturday FT
* World oil production likely to peak in the next decade, much earlier
than many international forecasts, a senior BP executive tells The
Business
* Economic growth in the euro zone slowed sharply in the third quarter,
battered by high oil prices and a slump in the dollar, European
governments will concede this week - The Business
* Sony BMG in talks with the internet file-sharing companies it once
considered enemies; the move marks a significant shift in attitude for
the music industry - The Business
Two big venture capital groups, Blackstone and Permira, submit bids for
the international business of troubled American toys giant, Toys R Us -
The Business
* Pension providers to cut sales incentives; curb on commissions could
derail government's plans - Saturday FT
* Dollar falls to record low against euro even as strong US job growth
- up by 37,000 in October - adds to bullish sentiment in stock markets
following the decisive re-election of George W Bush - Saturday FT
* Consumers could be forced next year to pay a levy on electrical goods
to fund the costs of recycling them, manufacturers say - Saturday FT
* UK industrial production suffers the sharpest quarterly contraction
for two years in the three months to September, declining by 1.4 pct,
while the less volatile measure of manufacturing output shows a decline
of 1 pct over the quarter
* ITV will this week announce the long-awaited sale of the Moving
Picture Company, its post-production and film effects unit, in a deal to
raise up to 50 mln stg; Thomson understood to have outbid Kodak, WPP and
a private equity consortium headed by former Carlton chief Michael Green
- The Business
* BSKYB chief executive James Murdoch will concede this week that the
company's growth is slowing faster than expected when he unveils its
first-quarter results - Observer
* A tenth of BSKYB shareholders to oppose Murdoch's share buyback -
Independent on Sunday
* Boost for BSKYB buyback plan; influential investor groups come out in
favour of controversial proposal; satellite broadcaster quells fears of
shareholder revolt - Saturday FT
* CABLE & WIRELESS boss Francesco Caio to increase his grip on the
group's struggling UK business, moving UK chief executive Royston
Hoggarth and reshuffling several other senior managers - Saturday
Express
* ROLLS-ROYCE names Simon Robertson, president of Goldman Sachs Europe
and one of the best-known names in the City, as non-executive chairman -
Saturday FT
* WPP wins UNILEVER's 700 mln stg media planning and buying account in
western Europe
* Board of MANCHESTER UNITED bracing itself for a stormy annual meeting
next week with Malcolm Glazer, the club's second-largest shareholder,
expected to oppose the re-election of key directors - Saturday FT
* TELEWEST being lobbied intensively by City banks which expect
Britain's second-biggest cable company to start merger talks with its
larger rival NTL early next year - Saturday Times
* Cigarette companies fail in an attempt to overturn stringent
government restrictions designed to curtail tobacco advertising in shops
* Engineer HAMPSON INDUSTRIES being forced to move work to Bangalore by
cost-conscious multinational customers, including ROLLS-ROYCE and Airbus
- Saturday Mail
* BRIXTON to acquire 163 properties worth 675 mln stg from Industrious
Aquisitions
* ABBOT GROUP acquires International Air Drilling Company, an oil
company with 10 rigs in Libya, for 27.2 mln stg
* LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT receives a "tentative, management
initiated approach"

SATURDAY PRESS COMMENT
FT
THE LEX COLUMN comments on Cazenove/JP Morgan deal (deal does not look
bad for shareholders at all - and especially David Mayhew, Cazenove
chairman, who can prepare for retirement with a guaranteed extra 5.4 mln
stg in his pocket), US jobs (in the absence of worsening economic data,
the Fed could continue raising rates more aggressively through 2005 than
the bond market expects), UK banks (gap between the more internationally
focused banks and the domestic players looks set to widen), Nokia
(aggressively chasing market share will only further increase earnings
volatility; in absolute terms at least, that leaves the valuation at
18.6 times next year's earnings looking almost as overblown as Nokia's
own targets) - Weekend share watch: INVESTEC (Bridgewell estimates the
stock is trading on a p/e multiple for 2005 of 10.4 times compared with
12.8 times for peers; that leaves room for further gains ahead of
interim results on Nov 25), MORGAN CRUCIBLE (presentations sell the
recovery story), SURFCONTROL (growth will depend on new products) - ON
LONDON: Chris Brown-Humes comments on budget airlines (there is no doubt
that smaller airlines are going out of business; if the attrition rate
accelerates, it can only make life easier for the likes of RYANAIR and
EASYJET in the long run) - MY PORTFOLIO: John Lee adds to his holdings
in ENSOR, WENSUM and GET

Times
HANSON (Bush push on asbestos compensation drives Hanson high) - FRENCH
CONNECTION (Fidelity halves stake) - LOGICACMG (hopes that Atlas
consortium will secure the eagerly awaited 5 bln stg outsourcing
contract from the Ministry of Defence) - TEMPUS: Patrick Hosking
comments on the housing market (for those who believe in a soft landing,
the lesson is clear - buy housing-related stocks on the dips that will
doubtless follow every fresh morsel of bad housing market news) - SHARE
OF THE MONTH: Orient-Express Hotels (buy at 18.08 usd) - POP STOCKS:
ALLIANCE & LEICESTER (on fundamentals, shares in A&L are overvalued; if
you buy into the takeover rumour, hold, otherwise cash out)

Telegraph
NETELLER (talk that 16 founding investors were trying to sell around 75
mln stg-worth of stock; the chatter was that between 25 mln-30 mln
shares were being placed at around 280 pence a share with institutions)
- QUESTOR COLUMN: MORGAN CRUCIBLE (worth sticking with), THE CHARACTER
GROUP (until a sustained recovery becomes evident, the shares should be
avoided), SPORTINGBET (good value if risky, but investors that like a
punt should consider a spin of Sportingbet's roulette; the shares could
have further to travel)

Independent
Private Investor: Sean O'Grady won't be committing much to MATRIX
COMMUNICATIONS GROUP; but he is along for the ride at just over 140
pence; it joins URBAN DINING and FALKLAND OIL & GAS in his gang of three
crazy punts - No Pain, No Gain: ARMOUR GROUP (Derek Pain would not
attempt to dissuade any investors from buying - providing they have the
courage to take a relatively long-term view of, say, a few years) - DS
SMITH (talk of possible corporate action in the near future) - WYEVALE
GARDEN CENTRES (chairman sells 221,000 shares at 361 pence) - KEWILL
SYSTEMS (talk that upcoming results could well impress)

Guardian
Graham Spooner likes SERCO, REXAM, and GENUS; he doesn't like NORTHERN
FOODS and UNILEVER - FRENCH CONNECTION (US financial giant Fidelity
believed to have placed about 7 mln shares through Deutsche Bank) -
EBOOKERS (talk that a bid pitched at 300 pence to 320 pence per share
will be made early next week) - UKBETTING (understood to have received a
bid approach from a European competitor; informal approach pitched at
about 55 mln stg, which would value it at about 62 pence a share)

Mail
STANDARD CHARTERED (row over Singapore stake piles pressure on
Standard) - MFI FURNITURE (continuing gossip that GUS is lining up a 145
pence-per-share cash offer) - WARTHOG (dealers believe it could be a
good recovery punt) - INVESTMENT EXTRA: TRL ELECTRONICS (have further to
go)

Express
BRIGHT FUTURES GROUP (director buying) - WHO'S DEALING: WYEVALE GARDEN
CENTRES (outgoing chairman sells 221,723 shares at 361 pence) - SHARE
WHISPER: WH SMITH (talk that book business remains in turmoil with
sourcing and ranging said to be under the management of very junior
staff; but its decision to increase the height of its card shelves is
believed to be proving a success) - VIEW FROM THE CITY: KINGFISHER joins
the Moscow goldrush; UK DIY firm set to help Russians on the home front
(p.92) - BSKYB (Investec Securities buy) - RYANAIR (has further to go -
ABN Amro)

SUNDAY PRESS COMMENT
The Business
Battle of the bundle. Ben Verwayayen and Pierre Danon are locked in a
power struggle to determine the future of UK telecoms giant BT (p.6) -
MID-CAP INVESTOR: BRADFORD & BINGLEY (underlying concerns about the
housing market still make it look best to avoid the shares) - AIM
INVESTOR: SYNERGY HEALTHCARE (buy) - BENCHMARK: Grant Clelland comments
on the flawed financial focus of the motor giants, industrial peace deal
at Volkswagen, French telecoms

Independent on Sunday
MARKET WHISPERS: Talk of Pierre Danon, the boss of BT Retail, resigning
in a huff and then jetting off to Mauritius after a boardroom bust-up
with chief executive, Ben Verwaayen, appears to be wide of the mark.
According to spies at BT, the ebullient Frenchman did indeed jet off to
the sunny isle, but to see family - and apparently he'll be smiling all
the way through BT results this Thursday; according to City chatter, a
share buyback at HMV is still on the cards, with analysts believing that
around 200 mln stg could be safely handed over

Sunday Times
JUDGMENT DAY: SHOULD YOU BUY SHARES IN JESSOPS Andy Brough, fund
manager at Schroders, says wait for the first set of results as a plc,
while Tim Steer, fund manager at New Star, says hold - INSIDE THE CITY:
Dominic O,Connell comments on Bakkavor (Icelanders take a bargain flight
with EASYJET), INCHCAPE (interest rate rises may finally have taken the
steam out of the great UK car merry-go-round; Inchcape is diversified
away from Britain, however, and such a rapid rise in the price makes it
obvious someone thinks there is more to come) ; MARKET MOLE: NORTHGATE
(Framlington's head of smaller companies, Roger Whiteoak, sold 50,000
shares for the Throgmorton investment trust last month) - STOCKS THAT
COULD BENEFIT FROM BUSH (victory): AMVESCAP, BP, COBHAM, SMITHS GROUP,
ROLLS-ROYCE

Observer
THROG STREET: LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE (a merger with a rival such as
Frankfurt's Deutsche Borse or France's Euronext doesn't have to happen,
and it may be better if it didn't), IMPERIAL TOBACCO (remains an
industry where there is still scope for growth), HSBC (John Studzinski
is beginning to make waves)

Sunday Telegraph
BLUE CHIP VALUES: BT (sell but keep a close watching brief), INCHCAPE
(buy); Look who's trading: CADBURY SCHWEPPES (chairman exercises
25,000options and sells entire stake; the shares are worth holding);
SMALL CAP COMMENT: MOTHERCARE (a good medium-term buy), HEMSCOTT (buy),
IFX GROUP (shares, which peaked at 162-1/2 pence in December 2002, have
slipped to 80; this looks harsh for a business that is being turned
around), CELSIS INTERNATIONAL (buy) - TAKING STOCK: Edmond Jackson
comments on SANCTUARY, TRIBAL, STERLING ENERGY

Mail on Sunday
MIDAS: INTER LINK FOODS (buy) - MIDAS UPDATE: LOK'NSTORE (hold) -
TAKING STOCK: Simon Watkins comments on housebuilders (Numis takes a
bleak view of the prospects for housebuilders and they are almost
certainly right) - COMPANIES AND MARKETS: BT GROUP (expected to report
that turnover from high-speed internet connections and other 'new wave'
revenue topped 1 bln stg in the second quarter of the year), ITV
(expected to sell The Moving Picture company to Technicolor, a division
of Thomson, for about 40 mln stg), PRUDENTIAL (chief executive Jonathan
Bloomer angers investors by refusing to take up his full quota of shares
in the firm's controversial rights issue) - SECRET DEALINGS: STREAM
GROUP (AA-rated fund manager Giles Hargreave bought 125,000 shares last
month for his Marlborough UK Microcap Growth fund, which holds 400,000,
or 0.67 pct; his Special Situations fund bought 402,000 shares between
mid-September and late October and holds 1.275 mln in total) -
newsdesk@afxnews.com

daves dazzlers - 08 Nov 2004 07:26 - 7 of 9

Morning all.

Digger - 08 Nov 2004 07:28 - 8 of 9

BREAKING NEWS - MONDAY
* Emergency law in Iraq ahead of planned attack; rebel-held Falluja said to be isolated as US and government forces get ready - FT
* MARKS & SPENCER expected to announce completion of the 762 mln stg sale of its financial services arm to HSBC when it unveils its first-half results tomorrow - FT
* TESCO becomes the latest entrant in the music downloading market - a 25 mln stg a year business dominated by Apple's iTunes - Telegraph
* FIRST CHOICE HOLIDAYS, one of Britain's biggest tour operators, sacks two senior aircraft engineering staff after uncovering an alleged 6 mln stg scam in its charter airline, First Choice Airways - Times

MONDAY PRESS COMMENT
FT
THE LEX COLUMN comments on the battle between HARMONY and GOLD FIELDS (before voting for the deal, shareholders should consider that so far the only winners are the arbitrageurs), Telecom companies, Hedge funds
Independent
SMALL TALK: Stephen Foley comments on KRYSO, GALLEON (on the verge of a fund raising), DELLING (to announce it has become the global distributor for iTAG), SOHO CLUBS & BARS (touring fund managers in the hope of raising up to 7 mln stg with a flotation that would value the company at up to 20 mln stg), High tide for floats (SOVGEM, AFRICAN COPPER, DAT)

Digger - 08 Nov 2004 07:33 - 9 of 9

STOCKWATCH BA reiterated 'buy' at Merrill Lynch post results

LONDON (AFX) - Shares in British Airways PLC were reiterated a 'buy' at Merrill Lynch after the national carrier's second quarter figures came in at the top end of expectations, dealers said.
In a note to clients, the broker said operating profit of 240 mln usd compared with its forecast of 203 mln and range of 201-215 mln, boosted by the fuel surcharge and hedging.
Looking to the future, the broker said its current year operating profit forecast of 450 mln "looks unlikely to be altered materially", subject to meeting with managament later today.
Merrill said this is principally because the Q2 out-performance was driven by lower fuel costs than it had expected, due to the timing of hedges at
specific levels, and therefore looks likely to be offset over the
course of the remainder of the financial year.
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