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Traders Thread - Monday 15th November (TRAD)     

Greystone - 14 Nov 2004 15:07

Greystone - 14 Nov 2004 15:07 - 3 of 23


Greystone - 14 Nov 2004 15:08 - 4 of 23

Greystone - 14 Nov 2004 15:08 - 5 of 23

Sincere thanks to Jules for this week's great Thoughters piece. I learn a little more every week. :-)

Talking of Thoughters........

I know a number of you have agreed to write a piece for me for sometime in the future. I am at a stage where I need to start calling in some of the promises..... :-) If you feel that you might be able to put pen to paper over the next two or three weeks, please let me know and we can agree a date.

Thank you all for your invaluable input.

Have a great Sunday!

G.

PS Sorry this is a little late getting rolling today but a trip away yesterday took a little longer to get home from than I thought it would... ;-)

Digger - 14 Nov 2004 15:20 - 6 of 23

FTSE 100 4,793.9, up 17.0

FTSE 250 6,582.30, up 46.60

FTSE techMARK 100 1,200.53, up 8.35

DJIA 10,539.01, up 69.17

Nasdaq composite 2,085.34, up 24.07

S&P 500 1,184.07, up 10.69

Brent Crude: December 42.31 usd vs. 43.02

Gold: 437.45 usd vs. 434.82





WEEKEND BREAKING NEWS

* VODAFONE hands back cash to investors with doubled dividend - Observer

* Regulator Ofcom ready to force sweeping change on BT GROUP - Business

* Ofcom prepared to break-up BT GROUP to ensure level playing field - Independent on Sunday

* BT GROUP in talks for broadband TV service - Observer

* Recent talks between TELEFONICA chairman and MMO2 CEO fuel bid move - FT

* MMO2 to make an estimated 500 mln stg commitment to its German arm - Sunday Times

* HILTON GROUP to sell 11 hotels to focus on city centres - Business

* ITV looks at Virgin for break into digital radio - Business

* NORWICH UNION tells customers to rejoin state pension scheme, Serps - FT

* Archie Norman hints his future includes SAINSBURY - Daily Telegraph

* Baugur likely to cut BIG FOOD bid after results disappoint - Business

* Baugur has lined up founder and former CEO Malcolm Walker to run BIG FOOD GROUP's Iceland business - Sunday Times

* Asian-based billionaire considering a 'white knight' move to save MANCHESTER UNITED from a bid by Malcolm Glazer - Sunday Express

* MANCHESTER UNITED pushes Malcolm Glazer to bid or quit - Observer

* MANCHESTER UNITED calls on Takeover Panel to see off Glazer; for good - Sunday Telegraph

* MANCHESTER UNITED calls for emergency meeting with Malcolm Glazer - Sunday Times

* Malcolm Glazer scores own goal over MANCHESTER UNITED AGM move as JP Morgan quits - FT

* GLAXOSMITHKLINE is pressing the UK government to force tobacconists and newsagents to stock anti-smoking products - Sunday Telegraph

* WH SMITH bracing itself for 'fat-cat' row next month - Sunday Express

* REUTERS in ferocious price war against Bloomberg - Sunday Telegraph

* SHELL shareholders to get dividend bonanza next year, with five quarterly payouts to be made in nine months - Daily Telegraph

* Controversial former trader at BARCLAYS' Barclays Capital unit 'got 9 mln stg payoff' - Sunday Times

* Chairman Dick Olver plans cull of BAE SYSTEMS board to assert authority - Observer

* SCOTTISH POWER US fiasco hits NATIONAL GRID TRANSCO's plans - Business

* MYTRAVEL warns bondholders of CAA trading licence threat - Sunday Times

* CHELSEA set to cut dependence on Roman Aramaic - Sunday Telegraph

* GE set to join 800 mln stg battle for NOVAR - Sunday Telegraph

* Former TOMKINS boss Greg Hutchings emerges as possible white knight for NOVAR - Mail on Sunday

* Melrose offers NOVAR shareholders up to 400 mln stg cashback - Business

* Investors demand to see new NOVAR chief's pay deal - Sunday Times

* HIT ENTERTAINMENT in takeover talks with Geneva investment firm, Mediawin & Partners - Sunday Times

* EBOOKERS attracts another suitor, private equity firm BridgePoint - Sunday Times

* COURTS being stalked by European arm of US retail giant Schottenstein Stores Corp, which owns Furnitureland in the UK - Sunday Times

* MFI update to warn company faces Christmas supply jam - Sunday Express

* HISCOX calls for FSA probe in to insurance commissions - Independent

* eBay in the frame as QXL RICARDO confirms early bid talks - Independent

* Robert Tchenguiz revealed as quiet buyer of REGENT INNS stake - Times

* France's Havas puts 20 mln stg price tag on baby products agency - Times

* VW's Audi puts 50 mln stg on performance engines maker Cosworth - FT

* Controversial LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE plan raises fears of a 'Balkanised' market - FT

* PALADIN RESOURCES in 80 mln stg oil deal in Australia - Sunday Telegraph

* Advertisers fear rates hike if EMAP and SRH merge - Independent on Sunday

* John Caudwell mulls float of mobile phones retailer Phones4U - Sunday Express

* Cantor to appeal FSA fine for misconduct - Independent

* Andy Stewart, co-founder of COLLINS STEWART, to take on Terry Smith by launching rival stockbroker - Sunday Telegraph

* Absolut Vodka group Vin & Sprit of Sweden may be planning to raise funds in the City by selling shares having scheduled analysts presentation - Mail on Sunday

* Andrew Neil loses 4.7 mln stg but stays in 'The Business' - Independent on Sunday

* Rupert Murdoch ducks questions as Liberty Media chairman John Malone speaks out on News Corp stake building - Independent

* Eliot Spitzer targets big US insurers, including MetLife and Prudential in probe - FT

* Eliot Spitzer acts against second firm, Universal Life Resources in insurance inquiry - Times

* Apple's iPod faces challenge from cheap rival made by MEDION at supermarkets - Business

* Disney close to selling its chain of stores in UK and Europe - Mail on Sunday

* National Bank of Australia preparing to abandon the sale of its Irish operations after a plunge in their value - Sunday Express

* Guardian Media Group could sell 'The Observer' to shield it from continuing losses at the title - Mail on Sunday

* John Stalker joins Kelvin MacKenzie in new Manchester radio licence bid - Independent

* Linda Bennett seeking outside investors to take control of upmarket fashion retailer LK Bennett - Sunday Times

* Austrian drinks firm Red Bull agrees to acquire Ford's Jaguar F1 racing team for nominal 1 stg - Sunday Express

* Trainline earns rebuke over internet insurance - Daily Telegraph

* Sir Richard Branson seeks stake in Indian airlines - Times

* Former New Look chief Stephen Sunnucks close to buying womenswear chain Phase Eight - Times

* Barclays Private Equity, fronted by Stephen Sunnucks, is sole bidder in race for Phase Eight - Mail on Sunday

* Saudi Arabia threatens to shun UK for arms contracts - Sunday Telegraph

* Talks on UK naval shipyard merger in hot water - Sunday Telegraph

* Emission rules may hit airlines in Europe - Business

* UK air traffic controls sets sights on Europe's Galileo satellite - Business

* Sir Richard Branson set to spin the wheel on UK casinos - Observer

* American operators try to bid up cap on UK 'regional' casinos - Daily Telegraph

* Casino operators warn cap of 10 'regional' casinos is a loser - FT

* Gordon Brown faces 10 bln stg reckoning from ombudsman over company pension schemes security - Mail on Sunday

* Gordon Brown 'sweeps PFI liabilities under the carpet' - Daily Telegraph

* Health secretary John Reid plans ban on smoking in places that serve food - FT

* Anger of 17 mln stg dividend payout to James Dyson and wife - Guardian

* TGWU union leader Tony Woodley defends actions of MG Rover Phoenix directors after outspoken attack by senior BMW director - Daily Telegraph

* Shanghai or bust fears for MG Rover - Sunday Express

* Third of workforce axed as carmaker Lotus loses major consultancy contract - Daily Express

* Slump in visitors leaves Cornwall's Eden Project 4 mln stg in the red last year - Mail on Sunday

* OFT to rule soon on Richard Desmond's proposed rival to Londons Evening Standard newspaper - Observer

* Victims of internet bank fraud will have to pay up - Times

* Claims Direct founders facing DTI ban as directors - Daily Telegraph

* OFT loses fight against credit card companies for greater protection when buying goods abroad - Guardian

* Royal Mail makes 200 mln stg profit and claims that service is better - Sunday Telegraph

* The Queen's bed linen maker, Dorma, put up for sale by Guinness Peat Group - Mail on Sunday

* Ofcom ominous signal to NTL's 1.2 bln stg mast sale - Independent on Sunday

* Sales of personal jets rise as US Corp unfreezes expense accounts - Times

* Morocco sets stage for IPO of Maroc Telecom - Business



SATURDAY PRESS COMMENT



FT

Lex Column: BSKYB (Competition from alternative services is increasing. Sky's subscriber target will be tough to reach); Global growth (Currency markets will get jumpy about the risk of intervention if the weak dollar trend continues, or new signs of Euro zone weakness emerge); HSBC/Korea First Bank (Investors must hope their bank keeps an eye on the price, as well as the prize, in Korea); Insurance (US insurers reputations are on the line after Spitzer ULR probe; and it could get uglier) -- Lombard: London Stock Exchange trading (row breaking out over SetsMM spreads between trade association APCIMS and the exchange); Dividends (given low inflation and a market stuck in a trading range for months, dividends play vital role in total shareholder return) -- Weekend share watch: STANDARD CHARTERED (The shares are attractive, but they are not cheap; all the attractions are fully priced in the stock); WHITE YOUNG GREEN (premium looks deserved); BRAEMAR SEASCOPE (The shares' future performance largely depends on shipping rates and activity levels; the shipping market is volatile, and the bad years have tended to outnumber good ones)



Daily Telegraph

Saturday Profile: Clive Cowdery, chief executive of Resolution Life:



Guardian

Market Forces: ITNET (bid speculation) -- Interview: IMPERIAL TOBACCO CEO Gareth Davis



Saturday's Times

Tempus: Magnus Grimond 'Now is the moment for the bulls to pull in their horns'; after safety search of FTSE 350 SCOTTISH & SOUTHERN ENERGY, BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO, and CENTRICA look rock solid



Saturday's Independent

Derek Pain's 'No Pain, No Gain': FALKLAND ISLAND HOLDINGS (We should have an idea which way the battle for Portsmouth Harbour is going on Monday) -- Sean O Grady's 'Private Investor': M&S (I'll be hanging on until Philip Green comes to call again); CAPITA (might be a good idea to invest pension fund in) -- The Interview: Alan Lovell, CEO of JARVIS -- Market Report: COUNTRYWIDE (talk of positive response to US institutional roadshow); ITNET (rumours a takeover bid just around the corner)



Saturday's Daily Mail

Market Report: ITV (tasty takeover story waiting to happen) -- Investment Extra: MERSEY DOCKS (Peel Holdings stake increase move brings counter-bid possibilities at more than 10 stg a share; if so FORTH PORTS could be worth 18 stg-plus and AB PORTS 558 pence; PD PORTS is the joker in the pack;); KEYDATA AIM VCT (Giles Hargreaves track record could make this launch worthwhile)



SUNDAY PRESS COMMENT



Sunday Times

Judgment Day: DEVRO (Andy Brough of Schroders says 'Hold'; Tim Steer of New Star says 'Buy' -- Inside the City: JD WETHERSPOON (the one hope holding up the share price is bid speculation, but it is unlikely a buyer will offer much more than the current share price); DFS (A look at the share register shows it was hedge funds that finally called the shots on Lord Kirkhams takeover) -- Market Mole: PARKDEAN HOLIDAYS (A number of investors have backed the recent acquisition of five holiday parks)



Sunday Telegraph

Blue chip values: BARRATT DEVELOPMEMTS (take profits, or cut losses); BOC GROUP (hold on) -- Look Who's Trading: TATE & LYLE (fairly valued after recent rise) -- Small Cap comment: HOMESERVE (should have further to go); SPEEDY HIRE (Keep buying); CAMBRIDGE ANTIBODY (Given the uncertainty over the legal battle, investors should take any profits they have); THIRDFORCE (strictly for brave investors, but worth a punt) -- Breaking Views: US Investors (American interest in UK stocks might be good news if it lends support to the stock market. But it is counteracted by a flow of cash out of UK stocks held by British Pension funds); Alan Greenspan (whoever follows him will have to deal with the legacy of a vast debt expansion in the US) -- Luke Johnson's The Maverick: 3i GROUP (3i management should consider going private... or possibly one of the new generation of private equity firms should make it a bid target) -- Edmond Jackson's Taking Stock: AB FOODS (One rationale for holding the shares is that they may well remain on 'buy' lists for the FTSE 100 portfolios. For anyone with fresh money, if only the price would consolidate); BIOGRESS (holders need to grit their teeth) PLANSTATION (it's a fair bet the group will be talking more positively); PIPEHAWK (At 11 pence a share there is still potential and the company is worth following)



The Business

Benchmark: M&S (In six months, the City won't want to hear another round of moaning about what has gone wrong. It will want to know how the recovery is coming along.); French Banks (What would help, of course, is a little bit of foreign influence through takeovers. Sadly with the French policy of cosseting national champions, the chance of this happening is remote); Italian economy (There will not be time for tax cuts to have any effect on the economy. Berlusconi may suffer the electoral consequences of his timidity) -- The Best of the Brokers: MMO2, EMAP, and FINNAIR -- Inside the Market: Small Cap Investor - PEACOCK GROUP (undervalued) ; AIM Investor - FORMATION GROUP (buy)



Independent on Sunday

Business View: MANCHESTER UNITED (Only a potential bidder could buy Malcolm Glazer's stake moving Man U from frying pan to fire) -- The Interview: Roger Davis, CEO of UK Banking at BARCLAYS



Observer

Throg Street: NOVAR (Place faith in Melrose; the writing is on the wall for NOVAR's management); Coca-Cola (Coke on a mission to reassert itself as a global cultural icon); VT GROUP (There are question-marks over some contractsnotwithstanding this uncertainty it looks like a good bet) -- Mammon: VODAFONE CEO Arun Sarin



Mail on Sunday

Midas: SUBSEA RESOURCES (With profits as little as two years away - and dividends perhaps a year later - the shares at 20-1/2 pence are a speculative buy) -- Taking Stock: LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE (Four years ago pride in London's Exchange stymied a merger with the German Exchange. These days, the LSE will not be able to count on that loyalty if the bid rumours become reality) -- Companies & Markets: VODAFONE (set to admit defeat in battle over US dividends with partner Verizon); EMI (poised to sign deal with Proctor & Gamble to test new music with hundreds of thousands of American teenagers before it chooses singles); J SAINSBURY (Predators circling, but City observers doubt there will be a move before the crucial Christmas trading period has finished); DUNN-LINE (coaches business set to AIM float) -- Secret Dealings: Investors are warming to WESTERN CANADIAN COAL



Sunday Express

Profile: MATALAN CEO John King

Digger - 14 Nov 2004 15:21 - 7 of 23

The following is a compilation of UK company results due out in the two weeks to Nov 26.

MONDAY NOV 15
Chrysalis Group PLC. Evolution Securities forecasts year to August pretax profit 11.9 mln stg vs 8.4 mln; total dividend 0.7 pence, unchanged.

Luminar PLC six months to August pretax profit 24.5-27.0 mln stg vs 27.0 mln; interim dividend 4.0 pence, up 10 pct.

Thus PLC six months to September EBITDA 17-18 mln stg vs 20.6 mln.

TUESDAY NOV 16
Burberry Group PLC six months to September EBITA 75 mln stg vs 55.1 mln.

Business Post Group PLC. Arbuthnot Securities forecasts six months to September pretax profit 9.0 mln stg vs 8.1 mln; interim dividend 6.4 pence vs 5.9.

Emap PLC. Morgan Stanley forecasts six months to September EBITDA 104.5 mln stg vs 103.0 mln; pretax profit 94.5 mln stg.

Northern Foods PLC. Williams de Broe forecasts six months to October pretax profit before exceptionals 32.0 mln stg vs 32.5 mln; interim dividend 3.37 pence vs 3.3.

Vodafone Group PLC six months to September EBITDA 6.4 bln stg vs 6.6 bln; pretax profit 5.2 bln vs 5.4 bln; interim dividend 50-100 pct higher than 0.9535 pence last year.

VT Group PLC. Williams de Broe forecasts six months to September pretax profit 21.5 mln stg vs 20.0 mln; interim dividend 2.75 pence, up 7 pct.

WEDNESDAY NOV 17
GUS PLC six months to September pretax profit before exceptionals and goodwill 395-401 mln stg vs 354 mln; interim dividend 8.7 pence vs 8.0.

mmO2 PLC six months to September EBITDA 818 mln stg vs 621 mln; pretax profit 245 mln stg.

J Sainsbury PLC six months to September underlying pretax profit 125-135 mln stg vs 366 mln; interim dividend 2.15 pence vs 4.30.

THURSDAY NOV 18
BOC PLC fourth quarter to September pretax profit before exceptionals 118-135.8 mln stg vs 112.4 mln; year to September 484-5-1 mln stg vs 418.9 mln.

National Grid Transco PLC. Williams de Broe forecasts clean pretax profit 390-391 mln stg vs restated 373 mln.

SABMiller PLC six months to September pretax profit before exceptionals 995 mln usd vs 801 mln; EBITA 1 bln usd vs 889 mln; interim dividend 9.0 cents vs from 7.5.

MONDAY NOV 22
Cambridge Antibody Technology Group PLC. Evolution Securities forecasts year to September pretax loss 36.1 mln stg vs 41.8 mln.

TUESDAY NOV 23
Tribal Group PLC. Evolution Securities forecasts six months to September pretax profit 6.9 mln stg vs 7.0 mln; interim dividend 1.0 pence, unchanged.

WEDNESDAY NOV 24
Speedy Hire PLC. Evolution Securities forecasts six months to September pretax profit 9.0 mln stg vs 11.0 mln.

THURSDAY NOV 25
Capital Radio PLC. Evolution Securities forecasts year to September pretax profit 22.4 mln stg vs 22.8 mln; total dividend 18.5 pence, unchanged.

daves dazzlers - 14 Nov 2004 15:50 - 8 of 23

Nice one jules , in your points i liked number 13 best of all.

jj50 - 14 Nov 2004 19:45 - 9 of 23

Evening all. Thanks to jules, a good read!

Fundamentalist - 14 Nov 2004 20:50 - 10 of 23

Evening all

Jules thanks for your piece

emailpat - 15 Nov 2004 00:07 - 11 of 23

Jules-well done,inspiring.May I ask if you were the lady on working lunch for am sometime back?

Big Al - 15 Nov 2004 01:42 - 12 of 23

Nice one Jules and very sound advice for anyone looking to start this shenanigans.

emailpat - I believe the answer is "Yes". ;-))

In the news I'm glad of the mention of PDH as I'm long. We'll see what happens.

For the record I've got longs in AXO, BDH, BTSM, ERT, GWP, MNA, MPH, PCI, PDH

Digger - 15 Nov 2004 07:00 - 13 of 23

MARKETS
Tokyo: Nikkei closed 11,227.57, up 207.59
Hang Seng index at midday 13,936.21, up 151.75

MONDAY BREAKING NEWS
* LSE under pressure to stop trade in MANCHESTER UNITED stock - Independent
* M&S in refund policy rethink amid concerns its 'no quibble' returns scheme
is too costly - Daily Mail
* Ailing COURTS considers asset sales - Independent
* HIT ENTERTAINMENT says met with Mediawin but no takeover discussed - Daily
Mail
* LSE drive to lure Dutch traders hit by glitches - Times
* ABBEY NATIONAL's backlog over Isa accounts climbs to 25,000 - Daily
Telegraph
* Drug firms let down Africa over aids: GLAXOSMITHKLINE CEO - Times
* GOLD FIELDS cries foul against HARMONY in takeover battle - FT
* Iceland's Baugur buys Mk One for 55 mln stg as high street spree continues -
Guardian
* US insurer AIG in threat to split capital payments - Times
* Animal rights activists force Swiss drug firm Novartis to rethink UK role -
Guardian
* British head of Ford, Sir Nick Scheele ready to quit - Guardian
* US investment bank Keefe, Bruyette & Woods unveils entry into Europe - FT
* Candover close to buying laboratory testing group, Alcontrol - FT
* Warren Buffett's Euclidian to stop writing new Lloyd's business - FT
* Elections in Iraq due for January could be delayed - Guardian
* ECB is urged to intervene as euro surge threatens growth - Independent
* China set to loosen TV investment rules - FT
* Ofcom says junk food advertising ban will not work - FT
* Ofcom to unveil plan for fairer broadband access- FT
* Gordon Brown 'likely to keep duty on fuel unchanged' - FT
* Coqanies not ready for UK public information law change - FT

MONDAY PRESS COMMENT

FT
Lex Column: HARMONY/GOLD FIELDS (Both parties have thrown a lot of mud, but
the odds favour HARMONY emerging victorious); UK smoking ban (In purely
financial terms, the main losers tend to be governments, which overall tend to
benefit from the evil weed. As for tobacco, price increases may well offset
any volume declines); UK Utilities (Some consistency could be emerging on different regulators views of 'fair return')

Independent
Small Talk: EASYSCREEN (ready to make management changes and enter takeover
talks, with Royalblue considering making an approach); CLIPPER VENTURES (Watch
for announcements over the next six months); INDIAN OUTSOURCING SERVICES
(Latest venture of Haresh Kanabar); ANTISOMA (There might just be a hint of
takeover speculation, with ANTISOMA's own broker tipping the group as a
potential target for VERNALIS); STREAM GROUP (STREAM shares could be just as
lucrative an investment this year as next); MATRIX COMMUNICATION (About to
make its biggest acquisition to date)

Times
Rumour of the Day: COURTS (Troubled furniture retailer is being stalked by SB
Capital, European arm of Schottenstein Stores of the US)

daves dazzlers - 15 Nov 2004 07:32 - 14 of 23

Morning all.

Jules - 15 Nov 2004 08:26 - 15 of 23

morning all
thanks for comments all.
amailpat..I wasn't on working lunch but a did do a quick slot on channel4 lunchtime news some time back

Digger - 15 Nov 2004 10:21 - 16 of 23

UK and European brokers' recommendations issued today, as collated by AFX News from a range of market sources.

NUMIS
Downgrades to Reduce from Hold BAE Systems

ARBUTHNOT
Upgrades to Buy from Hold Luminar

ALTIUM
Downgrades to Sell from Hold XP Power -- Initiates coverage as Buy BETonSPORTS, 200 pence target

DRESDNER KLEINWORT WASSERSTEIN
Downgrades to Hold from Buy Linde -- Upgrades to Add from Hold Serono

JP MORGAN
Advises switching from mmO2 to Vodafone -- Downgrades to Underweight Swisscom -- Overweight Erste Bank, lifts target to 45 eur

CSFB
Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform Dixons, 160 pence, advises switching into Kesa -- Outperform Solvay, ups estimates -- Neutral Heidelberger Cement, raises target to 42 eur from 37.5 -- Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform RAS

KBC PEEL HUNT
Downgrades to Hold from Buy TDG

CHEUVREUX
Upgrades to Outperform from Underperform Allianz -- Upgrades to Outperform from Underperform Autoliv -- Upgrades to Outperform from Underperform Bacou-Dalloz -- Downgrades to Underperform from Outperform DIS -- Downgrades to Underperform from Outperform Tiscali

MERRILL LYNCH
Upgrades to Buy Big Yellow

WESTLB
Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform rC, 66 eur target -- Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform Siemens, cuts target to 65 eur from 67, lowers estimates -- Outperform Cap Gemini, raises target to 27 eur from 24 -- Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform San Paolo IMI, 11.8 eur target -- Neutral Bulgari, raises target to 8.5 eur from 8 -- Neutral Tods, raises target to 32 eur from 30

BRIDGEWELL
Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight Persimmon -- Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral Barratt

ING
Downgrades to Sell from Hold KPN -- Downgrades to Sell from Hold Swisscom -- Downgrades to Hold from Buy Belgacom -- Downgrades to Sell from Hold Fortis -- Upgrades to Buy from Hold GUS -- Upgrades to Buy from Hold Tesco -- Upgrades to Buy from Hold Metro -- Downgrades to Hold from Buy GBL

SG SECURITIES
Downgrades to Hold from Buy Scor

DEUTSCHE BANK
Downgrades to Hold from Buy Acciona -- Buy Allianz, raises target to 106 eur from 100 -- Upgrades to Buy from Hold Opap

CITIGROUP SMITH BARNEY
Upgrades to Buy from Hold Besi

UBS
Downgrades to Neutral from Buy Misys

GOLDMAN SACHS
Reiterates In Line Aegon, raises estimates -- In Line Banche Popolari, cuts estimates -- In Line Hays, cuts estimates -- Underperform Indra, raises estimates -- In Line Telefonica, cuts estimates

LEHMAN BROTHERS
European Strategy: Remove Adecco from European Recommended Portfolio -- Reiterate Overweight BAE Systems, ups target to 305 pence from 285, raises estimates -- Overweight Hannover Re, cuts target to 31.5 eur from 33.5 -- Equal-weight Allianz, ups target to 97 eur from 95, raises estimates -- Equal-weight Euronext, cuts target to 28 eur from 29 -- Overweight Erste Bank, ups target to 38 eur from 36, raises estimates -- Underweight BSkyB, target 590 pence -- Underweight OMV, target 180 eur -- Overweight Deutsche Bank, target 20.5 eur, ups dividend estimates -- Overweight Bank of Ireland, target 13.4 eur, 'cheaper than AIB' -- Underweight Sainsbury, target 230 pence, preview -- Overweight Telefonica, target 16.5 eur -- Overweight Hilton Group, target 290 pence, preview -- Equal-weight Alstom, target 0.75 eur, preview -- Equal-weight BPMS, target 2.2 eur, cuts estimates -- Beverages: Iqact of weak US beer market in the US; Reiterate Underweight SABMiller; Underweight Heineken

MORGAN STANLEY
Downgrades to Equalweight Unicredito -- Equalweight BSyB, cuts estimates

Golddog - 15 Nov 2004 12:04 - 17 of 23

nice read jules, and i like No 18 best (mutley snigger).

Greystone, i will make an effort and write my poochy tail up soon.

:-)

Greystone - 15 Nov 2004 12:12 - 18 of 23

GD - You are a star! ;-)

Digger - 15 Nov 2004 12:14 - 19 of 23

London shares - midday features

FTSE 100 risers
mmO2 106-3/4 up 1-1/4
Due to post interims on Wednesday; DKW rates 'buy'
Hays 126-3/4 up 1-3/4
Recovers from Friday's losses
Cadbury Schweppes 465 up 4-1/2
Morgan Stanley reiterates 'overweight' after upbeat market share data
Vodafone 143-1/4 up 1-1/2
Interims due tomorrow; JP Morgan recommends switching into stock from mmO2
Antofagasta 1,105 up 8
Copper prices move higher
BSkyB 543-1/2 down 10-1/2
Profit taking after Friday's gains
3i Group 640 up 4-1/2
Recent equity strength
Sage 189-1/2 up 1-1/2
Nasdaq influences

FTSE 100 fallers
Emap 817 down 20
Chrysalis cautions on radio market, due to post interims tomorrow
BSkyB 543-1/2 down 10-3/4
Profit taking after Friday's post-results gains
Reuters 389 down 6-3/4
Reports of price cuts
BAE Systems 248-3/4 down 3-3/4
Concerns that Saudi Arabia will stop buying British; Numis downgrades
Dixons 165 down 3-1/2
CSFB downgrades to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform'
Next 1671 down 20
Cazenove downgrades to 'in-line' from 'outperform'

FTSE 250 risers
Thus Group 15-1/4 up 1
Uninspiring interims offset by merger hopes
Novar 162 up 6-1/2
Takeover speculation continues
HIT Entertainment 256-1/2 up 6-3/4
Weekend press talks of bid speculation
Carillion 234-1/2 up 5-1/2
Coqletes French civil engineering and building businesses

FTSE 250 fallers
Chrysalis 163-1/2 down 11-3/4
Full-year results; sees radio industry growth flat for 3 mths to Nov
GWR Group 245-1/2 down 8
Radio stocks knocked by Chrysalis caution
Capital Radio 422-1/2 down 12-1/2
Radio stocks knocked by Chrysalis caution
Manchester United 278 down 7-1/2
Bid uncertainties; Malcolm Glazer dropped by JP Morgan after AGM
Lastminute 114-1/2 down 2-3/4
Weak with Ebookers
Misys 283 down 6
Downgraded to 'neutral' from 'buy' at UBS
MITIE Group 152 down 3
Profit-taking after recent speculative gains
Luminar 491-3/4 down 7-3/4
Uninspiring H1 numbers, profit-taking
HMV Group 245-1/2 down 4-3/4
Downgraded 'hold' from 'buy' by Deutsche Bank last Friday
Woolworths 46-1/4 down 0-1/4
Cazenove downgrades general retailer sector to 'underweight'
Amlin 145 down 1-1/2
Trading update fails to inspire; KBC Peel Hunt keeps 'hold'
Jardine Lloyd Thompson 479 down 3-1/2
Loyd's insurers weak with Amlin

Other risers
Celltalk 29-1/2 up 9
H1 opg soars to 532,000 stg, upbeat on H2
Thirdforce 24 up 4-1/2
'Worth a punt' although 'strictly for the brave' - Sunday Telegraph
Planestation Group 54-1/2 up 7
Edmond Jackson comment in Sunday Telegraph
Griffin 6-1/4 up 3/4
FY improves significantly
QXL Ricardo 572-1/2 up 32-1/2
Bid approach news last week; ebay seen as potential predator
Formation Group 7.62 up 0.87
AIM Investor comment 'buy' in The Business
ITNET 256-1/2 up 21-1/2
Says in preliminary offer talks
Jarvis 14-1/4 up 1-1/4
Rally; PFI bidding operations disposal to Hochtief on Friday
Monstermob 161-1/2 up 13
Upbeat on H2, 2005 outlook as subscriber base outstrips targets

Other fallers
Renold 75 down 5-3/4
H1 pretax profits narrow, hit by currency movements, raw material
MyTravel 3.85 down 0.25
Co warns not robust enough for regulator CAA without restructuring
Desire Petroleum 56-3/4 down 0.37
Profit-taking after recent strong gains
TDG 228 down 13
Poor results; Cazenove downgrades
Melrose 127-1/2 down 7
Novar bid situation
PD Ports 90 down 4-3/4
Maiden interims show decline; Panmure 'sell'

MikeHardman - 15 Nov 2004 12:37 - 20 of 23

Added MRL (again) sub-7.5p, on buying pushing L2 north, 50 VW MA close to being broken, Q3 results and/or assay results expected soon. If it breaks 8p, 10p could come quickly, given sustained speculative interest or actual news, and 10p would look good enough on the chart to bring in more than just bottom fishers. Watch Toronto for news / price moves as well (MRL there, too.)

Big Al - 15 Nov 2004 19:44 - 21 of 23

MikeH - what you doing around here?

;-)

amberjane - 15 Nov 2004 23:31 - 22 of 23

Nice one Jules, and lucky you going on Crocs course. I was booked on one but another trader said he would teach me so I cancelled. My biggest regret as he later reneged on his offer.
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