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Traders Thread - Thursday 18th November (TRAD)     

Greystone - 18 Nov 2004 05:56

Digger - 18 Nov 2004 06:57 - 3 of 16

MARKET EXPECTATIONS

* BOC fourth quarter to September pretax profit before exceptionals 118-135.8 mln stg vs 112.4 mln; year to September 484-5-1 mln stg vs 418.9 mln

* GUS six months to September pretax profit before exceptionals and goodwill 395-401 mln stg vs 354 mln; interim dividend 8.7 pence vs 8.0

* National Grid Transco. Williams de Broe forecasts clean pretax profit 390-391 mln stg vs restated 373 mln

* SABMiller six months to September pretax profit before exceptionals 995 mln usd vs 801 mln; EBITA 1 bln usd vs 889 mln; interim dividend 9.0 cents vs from 7.5

Digger - 18 Nov 2004 07:00 - 4 of 16

BT CUT TO 'UNDERPERFORM' FROM 'NEUTRAL', TARGET 185P VS 190P AT CSFB

Digger - 18 Nov 2004 07:09 - 5 of 16

MARKETS
FTSE 100 4795.9 up 25.5
FTSE 250 6599.2 up 41.2
DJIA 10,549.7 up 61.92
Nasdaq Coq 2,099.68. up 21.06
S&P 500 1,181.94 up 6.51
Tokyo: Nikkei closed at 11,082.42 down 48.87
Hang Seng midday 13,842.98 up 17.89
Gold 444.10 usd (439.82 usd)
Oil - Brent Dec 42.76 usd (42.29 usd)

BREAKING NEWS
* US banks easing hedge fund rules - Financial Times
* REUTERS set to launch bond trading - Financial Times
* SFO investigation widens scope to BAE contracts - Financial Times
* Suppliers to bioscience groups get protection - Times
* Cox Insurance bid backed by Duke Street
* H&M to overtake M&S as Europe's fashion favourite - Guardian
* Energis boosted by BBC deal - Guardian

PRESS COMMENT
FT
THE LEX COLUMN comments on Eddie Laqert's plan to merge Sears and Kmart (investors should avoid being blinded to scale of integration), LAND SECURITIES (land is a good medium-term bet, but caution warranted), MMO2 (shares' latest rise looks like an early sign of altitude sickness), Grupo Auna(hard to take comfort when only fool greater tan you is selling out)
EXPRESS
WHO'S DEALING: WILLIAM RANSOM (non-exec director Christopher Clarke increases stake to 2.09 pct) - SHARE WHISPER: FKI (vague bid talk. Traders say more likely a private equity buyer) - BROKER'S VIEW: SPRING GROUP (Numis says buy)
Times
TErUS: MMO2 (To watch and wait 3G launches from rival. Buy), LAND SECURITIES (Well placed to take advantage of upturn in London property market. Buy), DIMENSION DATA (buy)
Telegraph
QUESTOR: MMO2 (hold the line), LAND SECURITIES (investors should be cautious cheap), DIMENSION DATA (best left alone)
Independent
THE INVESTMENT COLUMN: LAND SECURITIES (Remains a buy), AGGREKO (The stock is a cautious buy), GENUS (BUY)
Guardian
CRANSWICK (Talk of strong trading boosts shares)

Digger - 18 Nov 2004 07:17 - 6 of 16

GUS PLC, the retail and business services group that launched a strategic review in May, reported a 15 pct increase in underlying interim profits above market expectations and expressed confidence in its competitive position going forward.
For the six months to Sept 30 GUS made a profit before taxation, amortisation of goodwill and exceptional items of 406 mln stg compared to analyst expectations of 395-401 mln stg and 354 mln stg last time.

Digger - 18 Nov 2004 07:22 - 7 of 16

Global brewer SABMiller PLC beat market expectations with a 38 pct increase in underlying first half earnings as its Miller operations in the US continued their turnaround.
The group said a stronger second half last year will present the current period with "more stretching comparables", but it added that its businesses are benefiting from strengthening market positions and an improving product mix, "and with increased investment are well placed to deliver sustainable organic growth."
SABMiller reported pretax profit before exceptionals rose to 1.05 bln usd from 800 mln, with statutory pretax rising to 1.20 bln usd from 665 mln. Adjusted earnings per share rose to 48.8 cents from 35.4, against market expectations of 42.0-45.0 cents.
The dividend was raised to 12.0 cents per share from 7.5 cents.

Digger - 18 Nov 2004 07:30 - 8 of 16

BPB PLC half year to September 30 2004
Sales - 1.15 bln stg vs 1.09 bln
Pretax profit before exceptionals and goodwill - 145.2 mln stg vs 107.8 mln
Pretax profit - 150.3 mln stg vs 95.0 mln
EPS before exceptionals and goodwill - 19.6 pence vs 14.6
EPS - 19.5 pence vs 12.3
Interim div - 5.25 pence vs 4.80

Digger - 18 Nov 2004 07:35 - 9 of 16

SABMiller PLC six months to September 30 2004
Sales - 7.18 bln usd vs 6.28 bln
Adjusted pretax profit - 1.05 bln usd vs 800 mln
Pretax profit - 1.20 bln usd vs 665 mln
EBITA - 1.14 bln usd vs 88 mln
Adjusted EPS - 48.8 cents vs 35.4
Adjusted EPS - 26.9 cents vs 21.9
EPS - 316.9 South African cents vs 267.7
Interim div - 12.0 cents vs 7.5

daves dazzlers - 18 Nov 2004 08:49 - 10 of 16

Mid morning all.

little woman - 18 Nov 2004 09:02 - 11 of 16

Morning all,

The Banks are passing the liability onto individual for losses on thier
accounts. Not too keen on this. Personally I do everything in my power to stop
anyone taking advantage of me - but I think I'm going to have to reveiw my
bank use and reduce my credit cards to 1 or get rid of them all together.

I wonder what would happen if I went back to just one bank savings account at
the post office, and paid all my bill by cash from that account once a week.
May help the survival of the Post Office, and give the Banks something to think about.
May be the end of internet bank accounts. I am being too simplistic?

jj50 - 18 Nov 2004 09:09 - 12 of 16

LW - I was just filling in my little form for card protection from my Bank's "Royalties Gold" scheme last night and before that I used Sentinel for cover. Do you think this will change too? I certainly have a clutch of these cards and not known for being over cautious about carrying them carefully (usually the jeans pocket!). Shall have to investigate and review!!! The Bank must still offer protection to internet customers or who would use Direct Banking?

Digger - 18 Nov 2004 10:06 - 13 of 16

UK and European brokers' recommendations issued today, as collated by AFX News from a range of market sources.


CITIGROUP SMITH BARNEY
Upgrade Buy from hold Sogecable -- Downgrade Hold from buy Acciona, ups target to 60 eur from 53 -- Upgrade Buy from hold Bank Austria, ups target to 71 eur from 50 -- Reiterate Buy Benetton, ups target to 9.5 eur from 9.2 -- Buy Burberry, ups target to 480 pence from 465 -- Hold Electrocomponents, ups target to 290 pence from 270 -- Hold Fortis, ups target to 22 eur from 20 -- Sell mmO2, ups target to 105 pence from 85 -- Buy Schroders, ups ordinary share target to 780 pence from 700; NV share to 698 pence from 620

CSFB
Downgrade Underperform from neutral BT Group, cuts target to 185 pence from 190 -- Downgrade Neutral from outperform Infineon, target 8.8 eur, cuts estimates -- Reiterate Outperform Credit Agricole, target 26 eur, ups estimates -- Reiterate Neutral Royal & Sun Alliance, cuts target to 78 pence from 88 -- Outperfrom Vodafone, ups price target to 150 pence from 140

UBS
Upgrade Buy from neutral Dimension Data, ups target price to 38 pence from 33 -- Downgrade Reduce from neutral Sika, cuts target to 640 sfr from 690 -- Downgrade Neutral from buy Corus, ups target to 54 pence from 50, valuation call (intraday yesterday) -- Reiterate Buy Dixons, cuts target to 183 pence from 193 -- Buy Schering, ups target to 62 eur from 58 -- Buy Lufthansa, ups target to 13 eur from 12 -- Neutral J Sainsbury, ups target to 260 pence from 240 -- Neutral Barry Callebut, ups target to 270 sfr from 250 -- Buy Vossloh, ups target to 39 eur from 36 -- Neutral Havas, ups target to 4.2 eur from 4.0 -- Neutral Legal & General, ups target to 116 pence from 112 -- Neutral Spirent, ups target to 81 pence from 63, raises estimates -- Buy Zurich Financial, ups target to 210 sfr from 200

JP MORGAN
Downgrade Underweight from neutral Credit Agricole, target 22 eur, cuts estimates -- Upgrade Neutral from outperform Emporiki Bank -- Reiterate Overweight Metso, ups target to 13 eur from 11.4, cuts estimates

DEUTSCHE BANK
Downgrade Hold from buy Credit Agricole, cuts target to 23.7 eur from 25.0, reduces estimates -- Pan-European Focus List: Add Capgemini (Buy, target 26 eur) -- Reiterate Sell Cadbury Schweppes, ups target to 400 pence from 350 -- Hold Techem, ups target to 24 eur from 20.3 -- Hold Coloplast, ups target to 640 skr from 610 -- Buy Zurich Financial, ups target to 220 sfr from 218.8

MERRILL LYNCH
Downgrade Sell from neutral Dixons, cuts estimates -- Reiterate Buy Vivendi Universal, ups target to 26.5 eur from 24.75

CAI CHEUVREUX
Upgrade Outperform from underperform Standard Chartered, ups target to 1,175 pence from 910 -- Downgrade Underperform from outperform HSBC, target 940 pence, valuation call -- Downgrade Underperform from outperform Emap, cuts target to 825 pence from 870, 'dead money' -- Reiterate Outperform Metro, ups target to 42 eur from 39 -- Outperform Techem, ups target to 30 eur from 27

WESTLB
Downgrade Neutral from outperform Credit Agricole, target 25.7 eur

SEYMOUR PIERCE
Downgrade Outperform from buy Mothercare

INVESTEC
Downgrade Hold from buy Mothercare

NUMIS
Downgrade Reduce from hold Davis Service

DRESDNER KLEINWORT
Initiate Add London Clubs

SOCIETE GENERALE
Initiate Buy Ryanair, fair value 5.8 eur

MORGAN STANLEY
Assume Overweight Aktiv Capital, target 140 nkr, switch from Intrum Justitia (Reiterate Equal-weight, ups target to 45.0 eur from 41.7)

LEHMAN BROTHERS
Reiterate Equal-weight Scor, ups target to 1.55 eur from 1.40 -- Overweight Wolters Kluwer, cuts target to 17.00 eur from 17.35-- Equal-weight Zurich Financial, cuts target to 210 sfr from 220

SANFORD BERNSTEIN
Reiterate Outperform mmO2, ups target to 140 pence from 120, raises estimates

little woman - 18 Nov 2004 10:45 - 14 of 16

jj50, I must admit I will not pay extra insurance on anything - I hate extra paperwork, and although I have fully comp insurance for my car and a annual travel ins., unless its a major cliam and I've never claimed even when I have had a claim - my time is too important to waste filling forms for anything under 100.

Also over the years I have found I have had cover for things, but becuase I did not understand it and no one mentioned it, I did not claim even though I could.

- Like the extended cover on the car. I had a major accident 5 weeks after I purchased the car. I had a hire car for 3 months, only to find my insurance company did not cover this. It was 2 years before I managed to recover it from the other insurance company and cost me a fortune in interest charges on my credit card. When I complained to the Salesman who wanted to replace my car years later, he informed me that my extended cover would have provided a free hire car, and the repairer - the same company should have pointed this out.

- A good friend of mine had her car repossed because she could not make the payments. She had payment insurance, but couldn't fill the forms out because she was in a Coma for 10 weeks, and by the time she got out of hospital it was too late!

jj50 - 18 Nov 2004 11:56 - 15 of 16

Couldn't agree more LW - never claim for anything myself! The cover comes free though and the cards have been "temporarily" lost recently on a couple of occasions so thought I would take advantage of the deal. Seems to me there is always an excess or they up the premium next time!

Had same experience with car hire when old boy hit my car (and another car too)by coming up on the pavement and ramming us! I was told after the event that the car hire was not included and the chap had to be taken to court to get excesses back (which was only way to keep no claims bonus not affected!). It is crazy especially as the policeman said it was his 7th accident that month and they would have to have a word with his son!!!!!

snoball - 18 Nov 2004 12:02 - 16 of 16

little woman, I think you are being too simplistic. Have you ever queued at a Post Office? There must be another way.
What I find amazing is how despite numerous warnings people still give away their PIN details in emails. I think this is what the banks are fed up about.
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