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Traders Thread - Tuesday 23rd November (TRAD)     

Greystone - 23 Nov 2004 06:23

Digger - 23 Nov 2004 07:01 - 3 of 16

AFX
In London today's corporate newsflow should represent quantity rather than quality, with only one set of blue chip results scheduled for release.

Third-quarter numbers from InterContinental Hotels are expected to show the ongoing cyclical recovery in the sector, with Citigroup Smith Barney expecting the blue chip firm to report pretax pre-goodwill profit of 100 mln stg, a 5 pct increase on the same stage last year, with consensus standing at 98 mln stg.

However, the broker expects EBIT from InterContinental's hotels business to grow by only 6 pct to 83 mln in Q3, reflecting tougher comparatives, and the ongoing weakness of the US dollar.

Among other blue chip news scheduled today, refocused business services firm Hays -- which spun off its postal services group DX Services last month -- holds its AGM today.

And drugs giant GlaxoSmithKline is due to hold a review of its Central Nervous System (CNS) disorders business this afternoon.

However, UBS has noted that recent events in that market with the withdrawal of Merck's Vioxx drug and disappointing phase II data from GSK's depression drug 162 have taken the shine off what were to be two highlights of the day.

On the second line, the focus of full-year results from discount airline easyJet would be any change to the yield outlook at the group.

The Luton-based carrier cautioned in September that it expected yields to remain under pressure during 2005, after they declined some 7 pct in the July-September quarter.

The other major area of interest will be easyJet management's latest thoughts on Icelandair, which last month acquired a 10.1 pct stake in the UK firm, sparking bid speculation.

Last Friday easyJet founder, Stelios Haji-Ioannou, said in an open letter he does not intend selling his 10 pct stake in the company after reports last week suggested that Icelandair may up its holding following remarks by the chairman Hannes Smarason.

Digger - 23 Nov 2004 07:05 - 4 of 16

MARKS & SPENCER CUT TO 'IN-LINE' FROM 'OUTPERFORM' BY GOLDMAN SACHS

Digger - 23 Nov 2004 07:08 - 5 of 16

INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS Q3 GROUP TURNOVER 563 MLN STG VS 596 MLN

Digger - 23 Nov 2004 07:12 - 6 of 16

PURSUIT DYNAMICS SIGNS LICENCE AGREEMENT WITH COCA COLA

Digger - 23 Nov 2004 07:23 - 7 of 16

MARKETS
FTSE 100 4,733.1, down 27.7
FTSE 250 6,540.9, down 58.7
DJIA 10,489.40, up 32.50
Nasdaq Coq 2,085.19, up 14.56
S&P 500 1,177.25, up 6.90
Tokyo: Nikkei closed
Hang Seng midday 14,07.74, up 207.14
Gold 447.75 usd (447.12 usd)
Oil - Brent Dec 44.38 usd (44.89 usd)

BREAKING NEWS
* China's central bank signals the country's growing economic confidence by offering blunt advice to Washington about its ballooning trade deficit and says China will not be rushed into revaluing its currency - FT
* ASTRAZENECA agrees to buy a 19.9 pct stake in CAMBRIDGE ANTIBODY for 75 mln stg
* Galloping house price growth is over but Britain will escape a crash, according to forecasts published by FPD Savills
* BARCLAYS completes due diligence at ABSA, bringing it closer to a majority stake of South Africa's biggest retail bank - FT
* United Technologies Corporation believed to be on the brink of abandoning its approach for KIDDE, the UK fire protection group, after being told to put up or shut up by the Takeover Panel -FT
* Chicago Mercantile Exchange interested in acquiring Instinet Group, an electronic brokerage owned by REUTERS - FT
* GOSHAWK shares dip as Nikko deal fails
* SEVERN TRENT launches a disciplinary inquiry into its staff following accusations they had been guilty of false accounting - Express
* A high court judge will tomorrow rule whether MYTRAVEL can force through an 800 mln stg debt-for-equity swap without the consent of its bondholders - Telegraph
* EVOLUTION SECURITIES parts company with its head of market-making, Chris Potts, just over a week after the City trader was fined 75,000 stg by the Financial Services Authority for market abuse - Independent

PRESS COMMENT
FT
THE LEX COLUMN comments on XSTRATA's bid for WMC Resources, Global growth, Millionaires, Debt restructuring - MERSEY DOCKS' twin blessings; with property and shipping buoyant, Robert Wright reports on the group's attractions (p.24)
Mail
BIG FOOD GROUP (rumours Baugur is about to serve up a knockdown cash offer in the region of 80 pence per share) - CH BAILEY (talk that the Bailey family has been approached for its 33.1 pct stake)
Express
WHO'S DEALING: PORVAIR (chief executive takes maiden stake of 5,000 shares at 104 pence) - SHARE WHISPER: SCOTTY GROUP (stand by for more armed forces deals over the next few weeks) - BROKER'S VIEW: CARPHONE WAREHOUSE (buy from add - Numis)
Telegraph
QUESTOR: SEVERN TRENT (a forward multiple of 14 times estimated underlying earnings for this year is starting to look full), BRAEMAR SEASCOPE (buy), CARDPOINT (worth a punt)
Times
RUMOUR OF THE DAY: BIG FOOD GROUP (talk that any offer from Baugur could be pitched as low as 90 pence) - DIRECTORS' DEALINGS: OTTAKER'S (thre directors buy stock for 151,000 stg) - TErUS: KIDDE (hold), WORKSPACE (buy), UBC MEDIA (buy, speculatively)
Independent
THE INVESTMENT COLUMN: Gaming sector is still a risky bet (LONDON CLUBS look expensive but still the best bet in the sector; RANK worth holding); STANLEY LEISURE (avoid), TOROTRAK (sell), CARE UK (hold)
Guardian
WPP GROUP (Grey Global deal haunts WPP) - WYEVALE GARDEN CENTRES (talk a management buyout could be under consideration) - ARK THERAPEUTICS (talk that a line of 2 mln shares is being hawked around the market)

Digger - 23 Nov 2004 07:34 - 8 of 16

Intercontinental Hotels Q3 group pretax pre-ex slightly up, sees FY in line

LONDON (AFX) - InterContinental Hotels Group PLC reported a slight rise in group pretax profits before exceptionals in the third quarter to 97 mln stg from 93 mln and said after strong trading in October, the full year outlook remains positive and in line with company expectations.
Group turnover in the period to Sept 30 dipped to 563 mln stg from 596.
Turnover from its Hotels business was down 377 mln stg from 387 mln in the previous third quarter while EBITDA before exceptionals was lower at 113 mln stg vs 117 mln, and operating profit before exceptionals flat at 76 mln stg.
In constant currency terms, Hotels third quarter turnover was up 3.5 pct and operating profit up 8.2 pct, but the weak dollar adversely affected profit in sterling terms.
InterContinental said it is well advanced in the sale process of the Americas hotels and encouraging progress is also being made on the sale of the other hotels on the market.
It plans to pay a special dividend of 500 mln stg on Dec 17.

Juzzle - 23 Nov 2004 07:40 - 9 of 16

Evolution Group's head of market-making, Chris Potts, has quit.. ."It is a shame a situation like this has arisen, but the FSA is putting pressure on firms. I feel in this situation it is appropriate to move on."


Ooops.

daves dazzlers - 23 Nov 2004 07:54 - 10 of 16

Morning all.

Digger - 23 Nov 2004 08:13 - 11 of 16

Buy bot on IHG 1400

Druid2 - 23 Nov 2004 08:32 - 12 of 16

Morning all.

Digger - 23 Nov 2004 10:45 - 13 of 16

London shares - midmorning features

FTSE 100 risers
BHP Billiton 600-1/2 up 14-1/2
Hopes of fresh returns to shareholders; Morgan Stanley repeats 'overweight'
AstraZeneca 2,168 up 38
UBS repeats 'buy' with 2,740 pence target; Merrill 'buy' with 2,700 target
Tomkins 264-3/4 up 4-1/2
Nine-months' results due tomorrow
Reuters 397 up 5-1/2
Rally; Chicago Mercantile Exchange reportedly interested in Instinet
Prudential 419-3/4 up 5-1/2
'Outperform' with 477 pence target - CAI Cheuvreux
WPP Group 583-1/2 up 7-1/2
Rally
Land Securities 1,245 up 15
JP Morgan reiterates 'overweight'; ABN Amro repeats 'buy' with 1,443p target
BSkyB 556-1/2 up 6
CSFB reiterates 'outperform' following meeting

FTSE 100 fallers
Kingfisher 291-3/4 down 2-3/4
Deutsche Bank cuts target to 335 pence from 340
InterContinental Hotels 666 down 13-1/2
Disappointing Q3 results; Seymour Pierce 'sell'
Marks & Spencer 343 down 3/4
'In-line' from 'outperform' - Goldman; Panmure Gordon 'sell'
William Morrison Supermarkets 222-3/4 down 1-1/2
Concerns over bad Christmas trading
Tesco 295 down 1/2
Lehman targets 295 pence

FTSE 250 risers
Stanley Leisure 445-1/4 up 22-1/4
Solid trading update
French Connection 264 up 9
Chairman Stephen Marks reportedly revisiting stake sale prospect
Investec 1,409 up 42
Bid speculation; interims due Thursday
easyJet 189 up 5-3/4
In-line FY results
Wilson Bowden 978 up 2
'Overweight' with 1,213 pence target - Morgan Stanley
Crest Nicholson 337-1/4 up 1-3/4
Co wins 100 mln stg contract from Surrey Council; Arbuthnot 'buy'
Balfour Beatty 300-1/2 up 3-1/4
Preferred bidder for 56 mln stg Birmingham schools project; Arbuthnot 'buy'
WS Atkins 70 up 10
Arbuthnot Securities 'buy'
Serco Group 222-1/4 up 2
Arbuthnot Securities 'buy'
Interserve 317 up 5
Arbuthnot Securities 'buy'
IMI 374 up 4-3/4
Williams de Broe 'buy'
Forth Ports 1,253 up 33
'Buy' from 'hold' with target upped to 1,450 pence from 1,150 - DKW

FTSE 250 fallers
GWR Group 231 down 11
Static interims
Capital Radio 403 down 2-3/4
GWR results; Advertising radio slowdown
Big Food Group 87-1/4 down 3
Numis Securities reiterates 'sell' with target cut to 80 pence from 85
Persimmon 630-1/2 down 8-1/2
'Underweight' from 'equal-weight' with target cut to 294p - Morgan Stanley
Barratt Developments 514-1/2 down 5-1/2
Morgan Stanley reiterates 'underweight' with target cut to 461p from 521
George Wiqey 355-1/2 down 2
Morgan Stanley 'underweight' with target cut to 294 pence from 316
Kidde 159-1/4 down 1-3/4
United Technologies bid doubts
Acambis 264-3/4 down 3-1/4
Q3 losses; reduction in revenue guidance

Other risers
UA Group 1,420 up 220
Agreed 52 mln stg bid from Elphinstone
Conroy Diamonds 3.50 up 0.50
Upbeat progress report outweighs full-year losses
MS International 66-1/2 up 9
Buqer interims
Pursuit Dynamics 144-1/2 up 19-1/2
Coca-Cola Enterprises deal
Victoria Oil & Gas 70 up 8
ZAO SeverGas-Invest acquisition completed
Printing.com 38-1-/2 up 3-1/2
Buqer interims; optimistic statement
Eicom 0.67 up 0.06
Deal with BT's Rich Media division; Deutsche Bank 'buy'
Scotty Group 4.75 up 0.25
Talk of more armed forces deals over the next few weeks
Van Dieman Mines 37-1/2
New issue placed at 30 pence
SovGEM 55
New issue at 50 pence
ScS Upholstery 366-1/2 up 15
Full-year profits up 64 pct; Seymour Pierce/Panmure Gordon 'buy'

Other fallers
Tribal Group 149 down 20
Full-year profits warning
Lo-Q 4.25 down 0.75
Seeking support level
Mice Group 52 down 3-3/4
Margin pressure worries with interims; Arbuthnot 'sell'
Greencore 197-1/2 down 13
After results
Abacus Group 245 down 15
After results
Cambridge Antibody 595-3/4 down 2-1/4
Lehman cuts target to 778 pence from 787
Tottenham Hotspur 26-1/2 down 1-1/4
One-nil defeat by Aston Villa last night

Juzzle - 23 Nov 2004 13:57 - 14 of 16

Added a few (ADM) to my initial 292p PEP holding. Getting minimal media attention but clocking on nicely towards expected confirmation of FTSE250 entry 2 weeks from now.

graph.php?size=Medium&startDate=23%2F09%

Think i might start a thread on this one. Only came to market a few weeks ago, but at 800m it sits among the top 200 companies and ranks as a serious player in the insurance sector.

Mega Bucks - 23 Nov 2004 15:59 - 15 of 16

long more LAND 1246 s/l on

Mega Bucks - 23 Nov 2004 16:12 - 16 of 16

long ARM 104 s/l on
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