reasons:

1) Innovata are in merger talks with skypharma - (company has a valuation between 50-70p) and is currently trading on the lower end.

2) SkyePharma PLC ('the Company')
Notification of Major Interest in Shares

on 17th October 2005 by HBM BioVentures (Cayman) Ltd that following a series of
purchases it held a notifiable interest in 25,000,000 Ordinary shares of the
Company, representing 3.98% of the issued share capital of the Company.
-------------------------
on 25 October 2005 that HBM BioVentures (Cayman) Ltd had increased their
notifiable interest to 32,446,233 Ordinary Shares, representing 5.17% of the
issued share capital of the Company.
----------------------------------------
on 7 November 2005 that HBM BioVentures (Cayman) Ltd had increased their
notifiable interest to 50,000,000 Ordinary Shares, representing 6.63% of the
issued share capital of the Company.
--------------------
on 2 December 2005 that HBM BioVentures (Cayman) Ltd had increased their
notifiable interest to 57,295,894 Ordinary Shares, representing 7.60% of the
issued share capital of the Company.
----------------------------
on 5 December 2005 that HBM BioVentures (Cayman) Ltd had increased their
notifiable interest to 63,780,450 Ordinary Shares, representing 8.46% of the
issued share capital of the Company.
----------------------

HBM BioVentures (Cayman) Ltd have in the past 45 days or so increased their holding in the company from 25 million shares to well over 63 million shares now.

_______________

would love to know what you guys think.

Another interesting fact : On Dec 2nd when HBM BioVentures (Cayman) Ltd increased holdings to 57,295,894 Ordinary Shares, representing 7.60%

trades on that day were :
Buy : 5,969,864
sell : 5,255,177
UnK: 97,475

Next working day 5th dec the company announced they increased holdings to 63,780,450 Ordinary Shares, representing 8.46%

tades on 5th dec
Buy : 962,362
sell : 2,424,714
UnK: 102,517

both days put together is a net of roughly 1 million sell. (figures based on money am trade screen - if anyone have T2 please update on trades not seen here)

where did 6,484,556 shares come from, that HBM BioVentures (Cayman) Ltd bought to increase their holding in the company ??

Any input welcome.

Large buys and sells by institutions are done through mm's over a period of time and at an agreed price so they could have been accumulated over 1 month for example. A shorter term example is when trades go through they have a letter to denote the trade type ie o means ordinary. The letters vw stand for volume weighted so over a short timescale say 1 day the mm picks up stock as cheaply as he can to fill the order for the quoted price. If he can pick them up cheap he makes more money and vice-versa. Hope this explains a little of what goes on.....

Peeyam

was there a need to start a new thread?

where do you get a value of 50-70p from - the shares have traded as low as 35p recently and there is also a broker with a target of 150p - where does your range come from?

why do you think a merger with a smaller company, especially Innovata would be good for skp situation - the day this was announced the share price dropped 18%?


Skp is a company with some good drugs and a good pipeline but appaling management which has made many promises to the city over the last 3 to 4 years and has failed to deliver on them and is now completely untrusted - i cant think of a FTSE350 co with a mgmt team that has a lower rating in the city. Due to share holder pressure (mainly Fidelity) they are undertaking a strategic review (including Lehmans assessing selling the business), this is mainly due to most of the institutional stake having been built in the 70-80p range and them finally having had enough of the management overpromising and underdelivering and killing shareholder value.

If the business is to be taken over, then the value is likely to depend largely on the true value of Flutiform - it is the failure to license this drug to one of the big pharmas that has led to the current situation (the company turned down $90m milestone + double digit roylaties well over a year ago).

One big obstacle to a takeover from one of the pharmas is that a lot of the current deals have change of ownership clauses, which could possibly make the deals worth less to any potential suitor. Personally, if a takeover is to happen, i would expect it to come from an independent company who would then break up the company and sell the deals off separately.

As for the future of the share price, I would expect any takeover to be in the 65-75p range unless a bidding war was to develop (looking less likely now), alternatively a merger with Innovata would see the share price where it is currently or falling slightly. If the company stays as is with no consolidation, then there will be increasing pressure on a change of management (if there isnt thew SP will head back towards 35p with no other news)

All imho, dyor, nag

I currently have no position though have held (and shorted) on and off for approx 5 years

Makes lots of sense fundy. why do you think it was they did not manage to license Flutiform with the high rating it is getting?

Kivver

Ultimately the blame has to lie at the door of the management and their negotiating skills and either them over valuing it or the pharma who have looked at it under valuing it

The problem with the management is a few years ago they described the potential deal as "company transforming" which meant they had to set the price high, and it was obviously too high for the big pharmas.

Personally much prefer mgmt who dont make such predictions and SKPs mgmt have only confirmed this view further

sells figures outnumber buys by 3 to 1 but the price goes up, how does that work out???

LONDON (Reuters) - Drug delivery firm SkyePharma said it was not certain of getting a takeover offer it could recommend to shareholders, after smaller rival Innovata ended talks over a possible merger.

Full article: http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsarticle.aspx?type=stocksNews&storyid=2006-01-11T124936Z_01_NOA146172_RTRUKOC_0_HEALTH-SKYEPHARMA.xml

Share price not taken much of a tumble yet.

This is finely balanced and a large move either way could be coming soon. At some stage there will either be an offer which will see the SP rise, alternatively the co. will admit they havent found a buyer and the sp will plummet. To me its currently a straightforward gamble as to whether an offer comes or not and hence am on the sidelines. Would look to buy if no offer arrives and the sp heads back towards 35p

SKYEPHARMA CHAIRMAN IAN GOWRIE-SMITH RESIGNS

Most long standing shareholders will be celebrating this news, pity it has taken so long - be interesting to see the SP reaction

...and interesting to see who the replacement will be.

Most of all, interesting to see the impact this has on prospective buyers of the company.

which way will this one go, big buys and sells, seems like investors/traders not really having a clue.

If it goes bottom run 35 count me in !

The replacement the major shareholders have lined up is a guy called Bob Thian who has a pretty good track record. Whether it gets to this stage before an approach is made who knows - the market certainly doesnt seem to!


Bob Thian has had extensive healthcare management experience with Glaxo Group, Abbott Laboratories and Novo Industri; and was Group Chief Executive of the privatised North West Water Group plc and The Stationery Office Group (ex HMSO). He is currently Chairman of Astron Group Ltd and Orion Group Ltd. Previously, he held non-executive directorships in Celltech Group plc and Medeval Ltd, and chairmanships in Imo Group Ltd and Tactica Solutions Ltd.

SkyePharma faces new battle over chairman
By Richard Irving



THE board of SkyePharma appeared to be heading for yet another bruising battle with the drug makers owners yesterday, vowing that it would strenuously oppose efforts to impose a new chairman on the company.



The boards intent, contained in a statement, came before a meeting today between members of SkyePharmas nominations committee and Bob Thian, the man disgruntled shareholders want to install as chairman and comes after the surprise resignation yesterday of Ian Gowrie-Smith, the incumbent.

Rebel shareholders, led by North Atlantic Value, part of JO Hambro Capital Management, expressed surprise last night at what they called SkyePharmas antagonistic tone, adding that they were sceptical as to how open-minded the board would be to Mr Thians proposals.

One insider claimed that the disaffected shareholders, which also include Morely Fund Management and Insight Investment, would be prepared to requisition an extraordinary general meeting to block any executive appointment but that of Mr Thian.

It is understood that the rebels conducted an exhaustive beauty parade of potential candidates before unanimously agreeing on Mr Thian. One source said last night that it would be suicidal for rivals to stand against their preferred candidate, adding that it would be inconceivable for them to consider alternative options in light of Mr Thians readiness to accept a challenging job.

In a statement, the shareholders welcomed Mr Gowrie-Smiths resignation as an important initial step forward. However, they asked the board to avoid rushing into binding commitments with potential candidates for chairmanship before the EGM.

Mr Gowrie-Smiths sudden departure came just days after a company insider had insisted that his position was not negotiable, despite mounting criticisms from shareholders disappointed at botched efforts to auction off the business.

However, in a contradictory statement released to the Stock Exchange yesterday morning, SkyePharma said that headhunters had been asked to seek out a replacement last year. The process was put on ice, the company said, after the board had received an approach from Innovata, a smaller drug maker. A spokesman said that the company had identified a number of excellent candidates and that the board would approve a new chairman at its next meeting, scheduled for February 1.

Mr Gowrie-Smith, who is in Australia, said: It is unfortunate that the short-term interests of a small group of shareholders can cause such disruption to the development of a company. The former chairman, who was on a three-year contract, had a salary of 140,000. A spokesman said he would not seek compensation for loss of office. It was not clear if he would be due payments for stepping down early as a non-executive director.

LONDON (AFX) - The grouping of rebel shareholders who forced the resignation
of SkyePharma PLC chairman Ian Gowrie-Smith yesterday, is claiming the support
of over 50 pct of investors to install Bob Thian as his replacement, according
to a source at North Atlantic Value (NAV) LLP.
NAV formed the group with Insight Investment and Morley Fund Management
which pushed for Gowrie-Smith's ousting.
The source said that Thian is meeting with SkyePharma's non-executive
directors today as the two parties attempt to thrash out a deal which would
avoid the EGM threatened by the shareholders group.
NAV and the others have said they would call the meeting if the company
attempted to bring in its own candidate for the role, as it had hoped to do by
Feb 1.
"We want the company to accept his appointment and want it to make no
commitments until he becomes chairman," the NAV source said. He also noted that
investors want Gowrie-Smith to his clear his desk now, rather than wait for the
AGM later this year.
"We think we have substantial support (for Thian), and enough to win the EGM
if we need to," he said, adding that that means NAV, Morley and Insight are
counting on support of "over 50 pct."
"We are in discussion with other large shareholders... I can't reveal what
other shareholders have said, but we have support from a substantial number."
Those investors are concerned that anyone put up by the company would
essentially be a product of the Gowrie-Smith "regime", which the source said had
allowed a high level of "governance malpractice."
Thian is known to NAV and other shareholders from the time he was brought in
to turn around Whatman PLC.
The source noted he is known for his "track record on corporate governance,"
and stressed that SkyePharma will not be in for the swingeing cuts and
repositioning that occurred at Whatman.
"The issue is maximising value on the portfolio of drugs we have at the
moment," he said.
That was where Gowrie-Smith antagonised shareholders, and where Thian will
be expected to excel. Gowrie-Smith was guilty of "mishandling" the search for a
partner for asthma treatment flutiform, asking for too much money up front and
over-egging the prospects, according to the source.
"That was the icing on the cake," the source said.
Whatever their past experiences with SkyePharma though, the shareholders are
ready to melt into the background should Thian take charge.
"We're not in the business of taking boardroom control. We will remain
holders of stock but with fresh confidence in the new chairman."
North Atlantic Value's stated fund management strategy is to invest in deep
value situations, in companies where the core of the business is still strong:
"We don't look for companies where hostile action is needed, but if we feel
action is needed to create value then we will take it."

bit of turmoil this morn with skp putting a chairman into a position some shareholders will not like, but caused a fall in the share price and may be over done worth keeping an eye on. around 39.5p at the mo.

fall halted and starting to creep back up around 41.5p at the mo.

new ceo in place, please do a good job and get these shares back to where they should be.

Kivver

i see the company are still fighting the wishes of the bigger shareholders which could keep the price suppressed if any of them decide to follow Fidelitys lead and start offloading

totally agree with you Fundy, this was a great chance to breath some fresh air into the company and they failed to it. Fidelity have sold some but still hold some too. UBS AG and its subsidiaries have increased there holding by 7 million to 37 million. I think the products are too good for the company to fail and they do seem to be trying to get their act together, only time will tell whether they have succeeded or not.

Kivver

will be an article on front page of FT tomorrow under the headline "Skyepharma defies rebels by naming Condella as new chief"