PRICE 0.65-1.00 PENCE

From Q1 Results in May 2009:-

"positioning CAM as an attractive partner for a larger scale business"

Makes a very attractive shell for a large investment management/hedge business to reverse into, we have great tax losses that are an asset going forward!!! Could make it rather exciting. I would expect a bit more tidying up first.
Time to prove your deal making ability Mr Fry and redeem yourself for the shocker that was forsyth.

Numbers and comments again from the Q1 results...the company could turn a profit actually at the Interims on 13th August for the first time in a few years. That would also bring about a very dramatic re-rating imo. The loss in Q1 was substantially lower than Q1 of 2008 as per below:-

Loss attributable to shareholders US$2.9 million (Q1 2008: US$26.2 million)

Forward looking comment about Q2 and markets have picked up alot in Q2.

' The board of directors of CAM (the "Board") believes that there are some early signs that the second quarter may be stronger, as investor sentiment improves'.

First time the company has quoted something like the above in a very long while.

Simon Fry, CEO, commented, "We continue to reduce costs and realise assets
wherever possible, with a view to positioning CAM as an attractive partner for a
larger scale business, that will ultimately benefit all shareholders."

Shareholders equity of just over 2 pence at 31 December 2008:-

At exchange rate of 1.64 Equity attributable to equity holders of the Company $u8,184,000. Shares in issue 243,475,000.@ 1.6450 gives 2.04p.

1 MONTH CHART


1 YEAR CHART

Re:Orchard Petroleum

Modena acquires 14.17% interest for a forward valuation of at $u11.5m that puts a value of $u84.05m on company's equity in my view,it is slightly unclear whether this is new equity [dilutive] or existing equity..lets assume existing.

"At Orchard Petroleum Inc (Orchard), the five per cent. owned (subject
to the level of repayment of principal to preference shareholders, this
will rise to an effective economic interest of between nine per cent.
and ten per cent.)"

So Crosby currently own just 5% which would be worth $u4.2m [with possible additional $u4.2m depending on preference payback.

Crosby active opportunities master fund then has up to 8% depending on preference repayment but it is unclear whether cam has a direct economic interest.

All relatively encouraging as the holding could be worth 5m worth or over 2p per share over the stated nav.also could cam be the seller? The company has stated about trying to realise as much cash they can through the sale of assets.

"Modena will also seek to acquire up to an additional 5.83% shareholding in ESK on the same terms and conditions as above, potentially taking Modenas total shareholding to 20.00% in ESK. This acquisition is from other shareholders of ESK and is currently under negotiation"

Monday, July 27, 2009
Modena Resources to acquire interest in Californian producing oil and gas assets



Modena Resources (ASX: MDA) has signed a deal to acquire a 14.17% interest in a privately held company in California which has estimated proved and probable reserves of 24 million barrels of oil equivalent.

Modena will issue 24,400,000 million fully paid new ordinary shares to the un-named company at an issue price 15 cents per share. Last price was 9.3 cents.

There is also a deferred consideration equivalent to a value of US$11.5 million, less the value at the completion date of the shares initially issued, payable in cash or new shares of the Company by December 2010, at Modenas election.

The target company owns production, development, and exploration assets in California

Modena will also seek to acquire up to an additional 5.83% shareholding in the Target on the same basis as above, which could potentially take Modenas total shareholding in the Target to 20.00%.

The acquisition is subject to completion of due diligence and sale and purchase agreement being finalised.

Modenas Chairman, Wayne Bellman said the acquisition is potentially a very significant, high‐quality opportunity for Modena; one that could add considerable production and proven reserves and has the ability to deliver substantial value to our shareholders.

The Target has a low‐risk, high quality portfolio of oil & gas assets in a geography that we like because it is a large energy market with a long production history and under‐utilized infrastructure."

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/2079/modena-resources-to-acquire-interest-in-californian-producing-oil-and-gas-assets-2079.html

Good start this morning. May get a strong rise sooner rather than later imo. 1-1.40p.

Broken the long term 200 day moving average this morning for the first time since mid-2006 when the price was at 80p. A big positive signal imo. IMO also indicates start of rising trend with positive newsflow expected next week.

Few more buys come through today. Very confident with research especially about Orchard and as such IMO these are primed to spike to the 2.50-3.00p area minimum before or when the Interims come out anyday now. Price above all moving averages and Technical Indicators are also v.positive.

1.10-1.50p, up near 6% again this morning on no buys. These are so primed imo for one of those big rises and just waiting for volume. Already risen to where the price is this week on hardly much volume. Chart & Indicators couldn't be more positive whilst we await the Interims next Thursday. Small resistance point will be 2p whilst they will be slightly more resistance at 3p.

Next interim announcement Confirmed 13th August 2009

http://www.hemscott.com/companies/key-dates.do?companyId=5434

Originally I had a 2p target when I first bought in on around 21st July. That was based on the net asset value through the information in the public domain i.e. the final results. Subsequently, after my purchase I did more research and hence my statement about Q2 being stronger. The company had stated that in the Q1 Results in May. I wanted to know abit more as to why it could be stronger.

1. Main Indices have risen so much in Q2 (around 20%) - so would help Wealth Mangement arm and Active Opportunities Fund

2. Apollo Asset Management - new joint venture as of last November. Had a brilliant Q2 as per articles posted as funds were invested in emerging markets - Japanese. Helps achieve more critiical mass i.e. assets with excellent returns on the funds. Some talk I believe about Malborough Fund Managers buying a controlling stake.

3. Orchard Petroleoum - last weeks news about Modena buying a stake is excellent news as Crosby's holding could be valued at somewhere around 5 million or equivalent to around 2.25p a share on its own.

With all the above now, I think there is now scope to achieve more than 2p especially because of the Orchard news. The new value could be around 5p now with Orchard holding 2.25p on its own. Also, should look at the technical indicators and free float of shares and both are positive where the price is above all the moving averages now and the free float is very small. I think there is every scope for bigger rises to around the 4p level which could possibly still be below the new asset value.

In the medium to long term, the company who are currently in the process of trying to realiase as much cash as they can hope to complete a possible reverse takeover transaction with a similar business reversing into the company as per below muted in the Q1 Results. Would be very appealing for a private company as Crosby has millions of pounds worth of tax losses that can be used on future profits. As with nearly most RTO transactions shares rise alot in anticipation on that too and if more on that is muted that then over the medium term to long term, the price could get back into double digits. This is the best time for such transactions as PMA went through with one as such and the 400% rise and as per the articles posted on that thread.

Simon Fry, CEO, commented, "We continue to reduce costs and realise assets
wherever possible, with a view to positioning CAM as an attractive partner for a
larger scale business, that will ultimately benefit all shareholders."

More steep rises on the markets last week which is good for the Wealth Management and Active Opportunities Fund arms. Could see positive outlook also for Q3 imo on back of increasing investor sentiment. Also, positive for medium term target of partnering a large scale partner with markets looking better. Already know as per research how good news expected on Orchard Petroleum and Apollo Multi Asset Management. Interims on Thursday!

Anoher snippet from a couple of days ago on how asset management and inflows has gone up significantly for another company with the strong rises on the markets.

Lyxor sees strong demand for emerging market ETFs
07 Aug 2009 | 17:00
Barney Hatt

Emerging market ETF sales soared 200% at Lyxor Asset Management during the second quarter to the end of June.
The Societe Gale subsidiary says net inflows into emerging market ETFs totalled $900m.
The most popular emerging market ETF was Lyxors MSCI AC Asia-Pacific (ex-Japan) which raised $260m followed by the China Enterprise and MSCI India ETFs.
Assets under management increased by 81% compared to the previous quarter, up from $2.9bn to $5.2bn.

http://www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment-week/news/1519444/lyxor-strong-demand-emerging-market-etfs

100% now imo that Modena Resources have acquired Crosby's and Crosby Active Opportunities Fund's holding of 14.17% in Orchard Petroleum at around 2.25p-2.75p per share imo. This means imo that the new Net Asset Value for when the company accounces the Interims this week could be anywhere between 4.00-6.00p.

'MODENA RESOURCES ACQUIRES INTEREST IN ORCHARD PETROLEUM, INC. 29 July 2009 Modena Resources Limited (Modena or the Company) refers to the announcement on 27 July 2009 and confirms that it has signed a non-binding agreement to acquire a 14.17% interest in privately held ESK Limited (ESK), which owns production, development, and exploration assets in California. ESKs indirect wholly owned subsidiary, Orchard Petroleum, Inc. (Orchard), has a portfolio of low risk, high quality production, development, appraisal and exploration projects in the prolific San Joaquin Basin in California'.

http://wotnews.com.au/announcement/modena_resources_modena_acquires_interest_in_orchard_petroleum_inc/00972563/

Crosby's holding shown at 14.17% on the Orchard Petroleum website as per below:-

http://www.orchardpetroleum.com/au_profile_structure.cfm

Up 20% on no buys this morning at 1.25-1.75p, looking good for rest of the week.

Excellent rise today and getting bigger and also on just one 100K odd buy but the 20% rise had happened prior to that trade. Very encouraging imo and as per research fully expect these to do one of those 100%+ rises on news this week to possible new NAV of 5-6p. Chart looking very promising now.

.... roll on Thursday then .... ?

Yes indeed. I'm just so glad that I kept researching since my purchase at 0.85p and everything imo is looking so good.

Yeep .... all you need do now is to persuad 8trade of that ;-)

Anyway, only another two and a half days to wait and see ....

Orchard Petroleoum's website has been revamped since the weekend.

http://www.orchardpetroleum.com/index.html

Up another 5% so far today ahead of Interims tomorrow.

1.50-2.00p, 4 v 1 and imo could see more of a rise yet today.

Good rise today and very good volume. IMO set well now for Interims mid-morning tomorrow. Should imo see positive statements and Q2 performance should be good and ofcourse some news about minimum 2.25p valuation on sale of stake in Orchard Petroleoum should be included. My research calculated a new fair valuation of 4 to 6p.

Link confirms how I have been saying that all the technical indicators are also so positive which always accelerates rises and then rises also exceeed expectations etc.

Buy all the way!
http://quote.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=csb.ls&code=BSTK