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"In the know money" - on the move ?
- heading for the exits on - fixed rates (Int rate rises expected to ...speed up ?)
- or/and..... coupled with.... big equity fund outflows
- smart money ....heading for the bunkers ?

Bond Funds saw
- a massive $23bn of redepmtions in the latest week
- a record in absolute terms.
- The outflows were .....across every segment of the fixed..... income market
- are second only (in %of AUM) ......to the capitulative collapse that occurred after the October 2008 plunges
- and over 4 weeks ....an unprecedented..... $58bn of outflows.

All of this is providiung fodder for the mainstream media (and several hopeful strategists) that ......the great rotation
- 'must' have started.

However, as BofAML notes, there were .....$13.1 billion of outflows
- from equity funds (including $6.7 billion from pure long-only funds)
- the most since late April.
- It appears the money that ....has been 'rotated'... into stocks.... from money-market funds
- has merely .........reverted back into these.... safe-havens
- another reason why the powers that be .......would like to drastically reduce the access to these liquidity-sapping investment vehicles
- to keep the sheep..... in risk assets.
zh

From time to time it is necessary ......to quietly sit down
- and assess where we are going.

Sovereign revenues cannot, by any stretch of the imagination, support the imbedded costs of countries.
But investors of the world are in another reality altogether.
- They do not want to hear anything about these sorts of things.
- They are in the state of, "ignore and deplore."
- And - You can indeed - live there for a while.
- After all - Government induced fantasies have occupied the center stage before and for some time.
- But - Our current denial of reality..... is fueled by all of the money that the central banks have pumped into the world; but that...... will be diminishing as the Fed and others examine the longer term consequences of their actions.

- There are always consequences.
- What has been put off ......will arrive.

It was always....... just a matter of time.

The BIS (World Central Bankers - to THE central banks)
- and might have a degree of insight - into trouble - dead ahead
- and....strangely - if you read it thro
- who is.....to blame/how & why.

Quotes from...their report

BIS fears.... fresh bank crisis from.... global bond spike
- Soaring bond yields ...across the world
- threaten... trillion of dollars.... in losses for investors
- and a fresh financial crisis.... unless banks are braced for the shock
(erm imo - that's - a no they're not)

Losses on US Treasury securities alone .......will reach $1 trillion
( if average yields rise by 300 basis points)
- with even greater damage.... in a string ....of other countries.
- The loss could range from ...15pc to 35pc of... GDP i
-i n France, Italy, Japan, and the UK.
“Such a big upward move can happen....... relatively fast,”
(The BIS in its annual report, citing.... the 1994 bond crash).

“Someone..... must ultimately........ hold the interest rate risk.
- As foreign.... and domestic banks
- would be among those experiencing the losses,
- interest rate increases pose risks ......to the stability of the financial system
(if not executed with great care).”

The warning comes after ......US Federal Reserve
- set off the most dramatic spike in US borrowing costs.... for over a decade
( with talk of early exit from quantitative easing (QE), sending tremors through the global system).
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries has jumped 80 basis points since the Fed began to talk tough two months ago, closing at 2.51pc recently.

"authorities must press ahead with monetary tightening
- regardless of bond worries,
- warning that QE and zero rates are.........
- already doing more harm than good.
- The longer they go on, .......the greater the dangers.

“Central banks cannot do more.......
- without compounding the risks ..............they have already created,” .

Describing monetary policy as “very accommodative globally” ,
- it warned that the “cost-benefit balance is .......inexorably becoming less and less favourable.”

The BIS said
- monetary stimulus .......has created..... a host of problems,
including “aggressive risk-taking”, “the build-up of financial imbalances”, and further “misallocation of capital”.

It said
- the central bank mantra.... of doing “whatever it takes” to boost growth
- has outlived its usefulness,
- and
- has left the Fed, the Bank of England, and others, ....stuck.... with $10 trillion in bonds.
“Central banks cannot repair the balance sheets of households and financial institutions. Central banks cannot ensure the sustainability of fiscal finances,” it said.

The BIS said
- leaders have put off the reforms needed to clear out dead wood and unleash fresh energy.
- Productivity growth in the rich states has dropped from 1.8pc between 1980-2000, to 1.3pc from 2001-2007, to just 0.7pc from 2010-2012. It has turned negative in Britain and Italy.

“Extending... monetary stimulus
- is taking the pressure off those.... who need to act.
- In the end, only a forceful programme of repair and reform will return economies to strong and sustainable real growth,”

“Public debt in most advanced economies
- has reached .....unprecedented levels in peacetime.
- Even worse,
- official debt statistics ......understate the...... true scale of fiscal problems.
- The belief that governments do not face a solvency constraint.....
- is a dangerous illusion.
Bond investors can and do...... punish governments hard and fast.”
(& of course - the sheeple ....pay the punishment)

So a glowing opinion from the Banker to the Central Banks
- of just how fine and dandy things are (No pending financial collapse/crisis in there then)

And their - further glowing opinion...of the Central Bankers....efforts ?

- (“Central banks cannot do more.......without compounding the risks ..............they have already created,”) . And..
- (QE and zero rates are.........already doing more harm than good. - The longer they go on, .......the greater the dangers).
- (monetary stimulus .......has created..... a host of problems)

Well no one can accuse them - "That They didn't Warn Us"
....and in... 8ft Bright Red Letters too.

Keep on truckin gazz, much appreciated.

btw, from the advfn board:



maxk
28 Jun'13 - 20:48 - 27515 of 27522 0 0 edit


Well, I just snagged another 100 ounces @ £18.05 per.

Watch it tank now :-(




But it didn't....somethings amiss here.

I think charts and their analysis have their place, and uses in - normal(ish) times,
- but
- In the light of the Iceland wieout, the decimation of Ireland, the PIIGS sovereign bailouts, the Greek haircuts, the Cyprus grand shearing of the sheeple
- the Cyprus template put in place in the UK (& Co-Op using it) - in Europe, Canada, Australia, Japan etc
- the template...being...put in place for global cross border use - for the global too big to fails etc
(& how the charts and analysis faired in - predicting....the Lehman/AIG moment)

How useful they are...at the moment...I will leave you to decide.

That said, whilst history doesn't repeat - if frequently rhymes
- so here's some charts & thoughts from a very nice man at Citi Bank's....legwork and thoughts.


Gold and Silver appear to be in the process of finding a bottom; however, the price action could continue to be choppy in the coming weeks.
- Ultimately we expect both precious metals to move much higher in the long term
- with the potential for ....Silver to be the outperformer,
(as was the case from 2008 to 2011).




Our original target for this Gold correction was $1,260,
- which was the target of the double top. This would also have resulted in the same high to low move on a percentage basis as seen in March – October 2008.

Gold has overshot that target,
- though only slightly (the 2008 high to low correction was 34% while this one has been 36%). The bottoming process in 2008 can still serve as a template for
- what might still come for Gold:

•After rallying through September-October 2008, Gold made one final push down to a low 7.4% lower than the previous one
•After rallying through April, Gold has made a push lower and similar move to the last one in 2008 would suggest a bottom would be put in at $1,224. The low so far has been $1,221 and consolidation seems to be taking place.
Daily momentum is also at the most stretched level seen since the Gold correction in 2008

One important thing to note is that after posting the low of the correction on October 24, 2008, Gold did not immediately shoot up in a V-shaped bottom. Rather, it consolidated over the next 2-3 weeks and did not begin the next move higher until after turning off of the 76.4% retracement of the bounce off the lows and then breaking through the pivot.
- This suggests that if $1,221 is the low,
- we may still see some choppiness in the price action over the next few weeks.

BUT (They often have those)

Our only concern at this point is that the correction in Gold may be more like that seen from 1974-1976




The most important thing to note is that whether we are seeing a pattern more like 2008 or the 1970s,
- we do not see this as just the beginning of a bear market in Gold;
- rather, this should simply be another correction...... in the upward trend.
- This would be similar to what we saw in both of those time periods
- (a deep correction - setting up for the next move higher..... which would take Gold higher ......by multiples).
We still remain of the bias that Gold will find a bottom soon and that in doing so it will form the base for a new leg higher which can take Gold to our target of $3,400 - $3,500 by 2016.

I'll skip the inevitable - if, but maybe's & current event perhaps's (cover your ass bits)
- but - all in all,

- These dynamics continue to suggest to us that the long term trend of higher Gold prices is very much intact

And SILVER
Silver should also follow suit as it attempts to find a bottom.
- Once it recovers,
- it may actually be ..........the outperformer of the two…





As with Gold, we think the correction in Silver should end up being similar in magnitude to that seen in 2008.
- The 60% correction would suggest Silver bottoming around $19.75,
( though it has already overshot that level)
- . However, as with Gold, our bias is that Silver is in the process of bottoming
- before ......a more aggressive move higher,
- such as that seen after the correction in 2008.
( That suggests a move in Silver to.... over $100.... by 2016)



The Gold/Silver ratio shows that in the correction of 2008,
- Silver severely underperformed Gold (correcting 60% versus 34%).
- Then as both moved higher,

- Silver outperformed, rallying 488%...... versus 181% for Gold.

This correction again has seen Gold do better (less badly?) and the ratio is approaching resistance around 67, the 76.4% retracement of the 2009-2011 move lower.
- If Gold and Silver are bottoming, as we expect,
- than it would not be surprising for the ratio to begin to turn around the resistance area .....as well.

This would mean Silver could once again be the outperformer over the next few years.

So there we go - if..... history rhymes
(and gets the chance - before the train....perhaps comes off the tracks completely)

But
If all goes into meltdown (see Last post re BIS opinion) - all chart bets are off
- and after the carnage and crossfire of a meltdown clears ??
- it might just be a chart - with a ....straight up vertical line
(or maybe a steep parabolic up curve)

Max
- in the light of todays move - good choice
- in the light of the above charty stuff and analysis - looks like a good choice
- in the light of real metal premiums -vs- paper crimex (eg Vietnam Gov't gold auction - commanded premiums of just under $300...an ounce) - looks a good choice
- if you got hit with a - now signed off - Euro Cyprus template - good choice
- if there's a global meltdown - good choice
- Banksters now swinging - net long - so seems a good choice

Only downside seems - in the short term - watching the banksters paper price, & if they choose more taps (with a large 'ammer) - till they fill their boots..adequately.

The Morgue has had no deliveries into it's gold dealer side this year - and if it meets outstanding deliveries - it's minus... 90,000 oz
- GLD however seems to be hemoraging real metal - in multiple....tonnes
(probably - just a coincidence :o)

Andrew Maguire
(The metals trader who testified at the CFTC ...erm ....many many years ago....re investigation into silver manipulation....can't remember how long that was ago - I know I was out of short trousers... and it's still ongoing)

States
" Eastern Central banks have purchased a staggering
- 580 tons of physical gold .......in just the last 7 trading days.

This means Eastern Central banks just purchased.... a stunning 25%
- of the world’s annual gold mine production ....in just 7 trading days.
This was the largest purchase of physical gold during any 7 trading day span
..... in history.

So Max - in buying physical - you seem - in good company....tho' I will emphasise - "good Company" - in the sense of - purchase timing only.

Interesting data - from Eric Sprott

I just read some data on India.
- It said that India, last year (in the) first five months......, imported 1,900 tons of silver.
- So far this year they have imported 2,400 tons.
Now to understand the significance of this I have to tell you that the amount of tons (of silver) mined (annually) is 25,000 tons.

Then breaking that down - and projecting :0)
There is only a certain percent of the silver market which can go into savings because a lot goes into industrial.
- But here is the ‘piece de resistance,’ they said (India)
- imported 720 tons in April (annualize 8,000 tons).
- In May it went to 900 tons, annualized call it 11,000 (tons).

So - We’re going from .....1,900 tons
(of silver Indians were purchasing)
- to 11,000 tons,
- in a 25,000 ton market.
That’s impossible. .......There’s not that amount of silver available for investment.

And the Idian Government - are pulling every trick in the book trying to stop - the poulation buying ...Gold
- If they finally put a - full stop to gold......what next ?

Sprott
As they (Indians) can’t buy gold, they are going to buy silver.
- If you tell the Indian population they can’t buy gold,
- they want to buy ....something real.
- They don’t want fiat paper.
- They are going to buy silver.

And maybe... in June or July, which we don’t have data on,.... when the restrictions and costs have shot up here (in India to buy gold),
- maybe .....they will buy even more (silver).

He rounds off with.....

"So I think ....if.. this data is true
- we have the most phenomenal story for silver...... that you could possibly imagine.
- We will just nail those paper sellers to the wall here.”

IF...! then it looks a potential - stand back - blue touch paper lit event
(If)

And perhaps - Nice one - to call it a night on.

Wow, Gaz
You were on a roll last night. I hope it hasn't worn you out for the weekend.
The above post in relation to Sprott's article re India, I have just posted a Jeff Nielson link on the other side and think it's a cracker so will double up and post it here.

http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/silver-commentary/26271-gold-squeeze-in-india-stokes-silver-demand

As for all you lurkers out there, thank you for your kind words and for ensuring gaz will carry on. Look what you've done to him last night...... Adrenaline rush or what??

I will admit that reading more and more about the Indian hunger for pm's is getting me feel really positive again. Buzzing is the word.
We also mustn't forget that last time we took a hammering oil was down to $35-$40 a barrel, now it's still around the same old $100, so as for production costs they won't be coming down unless oil comes down substancially.

Good morning - busy day ahead - son and partner arriving - to stay the week :o)
- pending their house completing this coming Fri
- Like having a 6' 2" England Rugby prop forward arrive - with the boistrousness enthusiasm of a 12m old puppy.

Interesting chart - in combination with all yesterdays info
(courtesy Bloomberg)




Demonstrates, on a year-over-year percentage change basis,
- gold bullion is currently exhibiting
- the strongest buy signal of the entire bull market,

- far surpassing the previous buy signals placed in 2005, 2007, and late 2008-early 2009.

enjoy your time feeling young again.

Cheers Snurkle and thanks for that link

It just seemed at the point there were just 3 of us posting here- then you weren't posting here either, it becomes rather pointless
- ie me posting on a board that apparently wasn't used - except by me
- and a discussion board - needs more than one - for an exchange of information and ideas
- plus if there was no sign that anyone actually read it
Thought it time to call it a day, over here.

However the kind words from yourself and others - suggests there is life over here other than me, and that the info is appreciated - so I'm not ,as it were, talking to myself.

Hopefully - everyone who.. reads.. will put in their thoughts and ideas too, plus share
- any information they come accross....such as the horrific effects of GMO glyphosphate (lathered on, and absorbed by plants, as well as surface residue) - which I posted recently.

- anything that gives us - the heads up - on any subject in fact.

So we will see how things go.

Snurkle - lol
- I see both my sons each week, plus frequently - we get - would you mind looking after my partners daughters 3yr old grandson and her sons 12 month old daughter.
- you can have too much of a good thing at times :o)
- just been discussing heading off down for a tour down the Norfolk coast
(coincidentally coming back say Fri)
- My partner (5' 3") who loves him and his partner to bits, says with both of us around - it's usually like being in the midst of a set from - clash of the titans.

Well it's off for a BBQ for our graandaughters 1st birthday party next
- I think the abscond to Norfolk may be even more attractive after that - lol

Here are a few random articles that might be of interest

Washington Is Driving The World To The Final War — Paul Craig Roberts

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2013/06/28/washington-is-driving-the-world-to-the-final-war-paul-craig-roberts/
-----------------------------

U.S. army blocks access to Guardian website to preserve 'network hygiene'

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/28/us-army-blocks-guardian-website-access
-----------------------------

http://d1w116sruyx1mf.cloudfront.net/ee-assets/gsd/funnies/Ron_Paul.JPG

Hi Snurkle

Well the weather looks good in Norfolk - so we're off down there for some hill walking :o)

My son and partner have booked this week off and next (so no 9hr respite whilst he is at work)
- so leaving them rhe run of the house. Will be offline till next weekend.
- So have a good week .

A parting comment from - from Andew Maguire re

“Has any actual - physical selling - of gold been taking place during this takedown?”

Maguire:
“Absolutely no ....physical has turned up.
So when you estimate that we’ve had 600 tons of ETF capitulation, and when you see the fact that we’ve had forced producer sales,
- none of this is appearing on the market. Why?
- Because the bullion banks are repaying their positions.

We are still seeing backlogs and huge delays.
- This morning we saw (stunning) $50 wholesale premiums in Shanghai.
- Of course we’re seeing massive premiums, backlogs, and delivery delays. And if you want physical (gold),

- you are going to pay a physical price,.. not the paper price.. if you want size.”

Have a great time Gaz.
Enjoy the beautiful English country side and hopefully the best of the british weather :-)

Gaz & everyone - lets not give up,

The alternative is to become one of the many who prefer apathy. I can't let my life become that.

These threads are a lifeline. I am certain that even MSM spies read these threads too.

We must continue if we really want to make things better in the world.

I am starting my next book - inspired by finding myself living in the middle east & I truly hope it will be an inspiration & a candle of hope for humanity. I hope to have it complete before we leave & that I can at least get one person here to read it to ensure I get the right emphasis. I'm getting to meet some amazing people, some well connected & I can't help feel it's meant to be.

One of the greatest things that strikes me here is the immense drive for better standards of living - the drive to BE middle class, to aim for achievement.

Its so unfortunate that the EU & UK are losing that drive.

I've met many people educated in the UK. So our education is something we ought to be proud of.

One thing - the indigenous population are treated as such - free education, better pay, free health care. The UK falls on the better pay - we simply do not appreciate those with qualifications enough.

Gaz - the templates being rolled out will undoubtedly have loopholes for the super rich.

Thing is if everything is snatched off those that have worked hard then governments will have got things badly wrong. Hence our short timeframe here. No point making too much just to have it snatched. We'll manage. What we won't do is be slaves for useless eaters who contribute nothing. Sorry but there must be incentives put in place that ensure those able to work - get work - even if that means a stint overseas. Character forming & life enriching that will be - far better than hanging round McDonalds in a run down UK town.

Get those lard arses moving Cameron.

Gaz - although its yahoo - this article sets out what & where limits are

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/banks-savings-113257258.html

Definately caps on how much people can save is being forced. Feels like a big push to get people spending or using it to help out younger members of family.

Should kill all aspirations to become a millionaire. Good job we can't buy lottery tickets here.

Squirrel,
I'd love to read your book even if it never gets published.

Snurks - ty. It'll get published but I'll send you a free copy in any case.

Look what Hazl posted on the other thread - fascinating figures. Look at world first, then check out Western Europe and then Middle East.

Overall growth potential.

But what really made me smile is how peaceful the UK will be - flippin marvellous. It's going to be a shocker for estate agents....(titter).

Cheers Squirrel. I'd like that very much thank you



Mabel, you mentioned colloidal silver. Good to hear you got yourself the whole shebang.
It's great to be self sufficient and not have to rely on the big pharma's. Who knows what crap they put in their stuff to make you 'better'

I haven't had a cold since I have started taking it which was Feb last year. Our routine in the morning is 20ml colloidal 30 minutes before a bowl of porridge and a glass of freshly squeezed OJ.
Really sets us up for the day.
Even the dogs get their doses in their meal.

Added into all this is Diatomaceous Earth or known as DE. In the link below it tells you all about the benefits for humans as well as animals. I have been taking this for nearly 6 months and can't tell you how much different I feel... for the better that is.
To describe it would really fall into the better energy and concentration levels. Cleansed.... is also a good one as everything seems clearer to me.
A weird one, but all 4 of us take it daily in our foods and are in pretty good shape. :-)

Out of all this, the most important thing is to ensure you buy the Food Grade variety.
I got a 25kg tub which will last me another year at least for only £30 or so. A very worthwhile investment in your health.


http://www.morethanalive.com/Diatomaceous-Earth-Food-Grade-Powder