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Dowgate Capital - Capitalising on the booming AIM market (DGT)     

overgrowth - 09 Feb 2005 20:52

Dowgate Capital (DGT) are sitting in the middle of a goldmine!

This company through their sole trading arm City Financial Associates are looking to take full advantage of the "booming" AIM market this year. Dowgate provide NOMAD (NOMinated ADvisor) services to AIM companies and also have full Corporate Broker status which means that they can fund placements on behalf of the companies they represent.

On first sight, the fact that Dowgate exist in the often veiled financial services sector makes you think twice about investing in company such as this because it would be impossible to understand what they were doing - however, think again!

DGT bring new companies to the AIM (Alternative Investment Market). For each new company "floated" on AIM, they take arrangement fees when acting as NOMAD. After the company is launched then for a nice steady earner DGT get another healthy chunk of cash every year for looking after them (note that all AIM companies must have a nominated adviser - thereby securing a ready source of recurring income).

Because DGT also act as a Corporate broker they can get a very healthy percentage for arranging placement of shares with insititutions before a new company floats. In addition, because placements come outside the sphere of yearly NOMAD work, they can also gain healthy percentages of placements which companies may need to make throughout the year when they need a quick injection of cash to speed growth.

Current NOMADships: 28 companies represented (gives recurring income of approx 480,000 per year)

Current on-going Brokerage agreements: 19 companies (income depends on placements)

For flotations, depending on the size of a company, fees charged will be anything from 50,000 to 100,000+ For placements (the real earner), DGT get anything from 3% to around 12% of the TOTAL AMOUNT RAISED - For example a new company raising 3M though a placement will earn DGT anything from 90,000 to 360,000 ! These figures are indicative as actual deals all differ due to circumstances and DGT sometimes take payment in shares - they still have a tasty chunk of Setstone shares and when this Russian exploration company comes back to AIM, predictions are that the share price will rocket. Note that the amount that this little company can earn in fees is huge and every new deal that comes through we know will contribute another healthy chunk into the bottom line. The good news with every new floatation means that it's another chunk of recurring revenue which could go on for years, with DGT having to do very little. New clients gained in 2005 are:

Mediazest (NOMAD & broker) Elite Strategies (NOMAD) Process Handling (NOMAD) Poland Investment Fund (NOMAD) Nanotech Energy (NOMAD & broker) Archimedia Ventures (NOMAD & broker) Red Leopard Holdings (NOMAD) Alba Mineral Resources (NOMAD & broker) Intandem Films (NOMAD & broker) Motive Television (NOMAD) IncaGold (NOMAD) Sportswinbet (NOMAD & Broker) Infoscreen Networks (NOMAD & Broker) Mark Kingsley (NOMAD & Broker) Croatia Ventures (NOMAD & Broker) Pantheon Leisure (NOMAD) Firenze Ventures (Ofex Advisor) FlightStore Group (NOMAD & Broker) Euro Capital Projects (NOMAD) Pearl Street Holdings (NOMAD) Worldwide Natural Resources (Ofex Advisor) Dovedale Ventures (Ofex Advisor) Other 2005 work completed:Neptune-Calculus VCT offer for subs of up to 12 million Advisory work for TGM on London Bus disposal for 20.4M Advisory work for Creightons on property disposal Advisory work for Hampton Trust on company restructuring Advisory work for Interbulk Investments on acquisition of Inbulk Advisory work for Fundamental-e Investments on two disposals Advisory work for Designer Vision re: Design Rights against Centurion Electronics

Click Here for fundamentals and profit projections.
Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=DGT&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=DGT&Si

overgrowth - 07 Apr 2005 21:25 - 300 of 2787

Andy, I've had a closer look at the doc. for Nanotech.

It appears as you say that CFP get 10,000 placing fee + 3.5% of 400,000

The 400,000 was raised essentially to cover admission costs.

It looks as though CFP also get the following:

One-off
Corporate finance advice on admission 30,000
Annual Recurring
NOMAD 15,000
Broker 10,000

Which makes:

54,000 for placement and admission

plus recurring fees of 25,000

Looks as though SD was almost spot on!

stevieweebie - 07 Apr 2005 21:47 - 301 of 2787

Guys excellent postings.
I wish that I had the time or the knowledge to contribute further, However; after holding and accumulating and watching over the last 14 months. I sense that a pivotal moment is now upon us regarding the shareprice.
I have read favourable broker reports when the company was less busy and the sp was almost double what it is now.
Seems now to be oversold.
I topped up again today with a small purchase at .041 (Broker asked for .045 at first till I comlained) bloody cheek lol.
Good luck all holders heres to a steady sustained rise this time.
Stevie

arawli - 08 Apr 2005 08:32 - 302 of 2787

Just bought 750k at 0.43p

All the best

Andy

stockdog - 08 Apr 2005 09:09 - 303 of 2787

Andy, OG, thanks for the detailed prices - I overstated Nanotech fees by 9.5k first year earnings, so must reduce my SP forecast from 1.09 to 1.06 (tant pis!) as I feed these accurate figures into my model.

Also removing the 5k p.a estimated Broker fee for Red Leopard (now seen to be NOMAD only) further reduces SP forecast to 1.05p.

Interesting to see model relationship between fee earnings and SP forecast - it's quite sensitive BOTH ways, up and down.

SD

EWRobson - 08 Apr 2005 15:18 - 304 of 2787

og,sd

Good research on the board. How do you summarise the current position, lets say in terms of first half earnings in the bag. Agree the comments re positive position emulating, probably beating, a year ago when sp was hovering around 75p, spent some time at 1.25p and peaked at 1.5p. Lets get back to .75p first and then take stock! Having said that, the market might repeat last year's rise to 1.5p. Hopefully, we should have a trading statement soon and some analyst forecasts. Any ideas as to when these might come? - must be soon.

Eric

overgrowth - 08 Apr 2005 15:26 - 305 of 2787

Eric,

I'll wait for SD to come back with the estimates as he's got what sounds to be a sophisticated model built. I agree that the price should be back at .75p based on what we know right now.

Regarding news - results are due out "towards the end of this month" and should include a summary of work completed in 2005 and an indication of pipeline work in the order book.

ptholden - 08 Apr 2005 15:36 - 306 of 2787

Hi Guys

Nice to see that having been out of the country for five months (and totally out of touch!)many of the old gang are still around. Like the header OG! Eric hope you are well? I have continued to hold through the slide and am considering averaging down a tadge. I noted in Shares Mag that City Financial (I assume CFA) have been mentioned three or four times as the Broker for forthcoming floats. Sounds very promising.

Regards

PTH

overgrowth - 08 Apr 2005 16:02 - 307 of 2787

PTH - Good to hear you're still around.

I'm glad you like the header - I try to keep it updated on a regular basis - at the bottom of the header you'll see all of the work which has been flooding in this year and probably recognise some of the names from Shares Mag (I thought it was odd that they'd suddenly started putting just City Financial too - could be just a typo).

OG

snakey - 08 Apr 2005 16:47 - 308 of 2787

PTH, nice to see your handle again. how was the golf at Sandy Lane then ?? or were you away workin` ??

ptholden - 08 Apr 2005 17:40 - 309 of 2787

Snakey

Unfortunately away working, this time on the other side of the world to Sandy Lane. Only managed five games of golf the whole time I was away. However, back for six months now, so looking forward to hammering the Handicap! And of course, seeing the best of CFA (and perhaps a few others).

Regards

PTH

stockdog - 08 Apr 2005 18:07 - 310 of 2787

My model (which is far from sophisticated, but being a plan, is probably better than no plan) suggests:-

Earnings this year from 23 previous year repeat clients 400k

Earnings from 12 new 2005 clients and new transactions for old clients 666k

Earnings for Apr-Dec based on new 6 NOMAD only and 7 NOMAD
& Broker, assuming 3.5% commission on 1m average placing, but
no more transactions form exisitng clients 772.5k

Gross revenues 2005 1838.5k
Overheads 1400.0k
Operating Profit 438.5k
Tax net of b/f losses of 2.19m NEW ASSUMPTION zero
Market Cap today @ mid price 0.0042p 2,329.32k
PE 2005 5.31
PE should/could be 18.00
So SP bid should/could be 0.0037 X 18 / 5.31 = 1.25

EDIT: 9/4/05 - allowing for the preposterous spread to narrow from 24% to about 18% (cf COH), then bid SP could be nearer 1.30 on above assumptions.

Caveat - will the remainder of the year hold up to produce the above estimated revenues??

All IMHO, DYOR

SD


overgrowth - 08 Apr 2005 18:23 - 311 of 2787

SD - I reckon the figures look good.

I believe that what is more likely to happen is that there will be fewer floats during the rest of the year (say one per month on average), but the placements made will be much more substantial.



stockdog - 08 Apr 2005 18:35 - 312 of 2787

OG - prefer fewer better floats, less volatile, less work, less overhead cost, more substantial for future additional placings and advisory work - less is more.

1.25p by end of year would be good!

SD

snakey - 08 Apr 2005 18:41 - 313 of 2787

I personally believe that 3p is achievable by the end of the year and think that we would be near that now if it hadn`t been for the SB debacle, which is all I can describe it as, being an outsider !!

stevieweebie - 08 Apr 2005 19:05 - 314 of 2787

SD
Good assesment and we can of course monitor progress ourselves thanks to various posters obtaining the info when released.
I think that the intandem float will raise CFP profile as it seems to be a high interest IPO.
Often, perception carries a lot more weight than people think,some good solid press coupled with a proven track record(2005 being the proving ground)and we have a DAN for our company.
Very interesting to be in this company at this time, Would be a great endorsment for a Director to buy after results announced.mmmmmmmmmmm
Steve

snip25 - 11 Apr 2005 12:45 - 315 of 2787

Get ready its gonna blow maybe not today but very soon :o)

arawli - 11 Apr 2005 13:02 - 316 of 2787

Just added another 500k at 0.43p

My last lot before results

All the best

Andy

ranoszek - 11 Apr 2005 16:34 - 317 of 2787

Something afoot in terms of finals i think. CFP have their transactions page updated all the way to April. Now that is unusual - they have been months behind for months

bosley - 11 Apr 2005 18:39 - 318 of 2787

i may have been a little hasty in dropping cfp and calling it a dog. i have been following events and would like to know how much of the new business generated recently is going to be included in these results? is the year end dec 31st? i think i should have given TR and the new team more time as they seem to have been very successful in bringing in loads of new business . the lack of new business was my main gripe.

ptholden - 11 Apr 2005 18:51 - 319 of 2787

Bos

I may be wrong, but I believe a significant proportion of the new business will not be included in the results. Year ends 31 Dec, so would espect to see the finals announced fairly soon. However, the Trading Statement released 20/12/04 stated that turnover would be significantly lower than anticpated, a statement that precipitated the collapse of the SP. Theoretically the bad news is already in the SP, so whenever the results are announced, it should not have to much of an impact on the SP. Hoever, the City does not always think like that. Maybe there will be some good news to ameliorate the bad? Perhaps a hard one to call when to step back in? As a long term holder and enthusiastic supporter of CFA, I hope they are now back on track, it certainly would appear so. It may be sometime before they reach the giddy heights of 1.5p though!

Regards

PTH
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