overgrowth
- 13 May 2005 16:36
Retail Decisions are
market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They
produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally,
though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers
both in the UK and US.
They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be
a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this
"forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout
2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and
Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of
millions of shares in RTD !
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Shares Magazine had
a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is
about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution".
It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.
Here's what Shares
had to say:
"Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing
credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit
and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but
also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in
your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions.
Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime.
Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump
is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities
seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains
concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already
has fantastic experience and technology.
The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that
it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer,
T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner
of Macy's and Bloomingdales.
Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business
in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low
single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."
Retail Decisions have
continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz.
fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices
and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams
from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through.
In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over
their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company
is doing.
The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software
is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success
in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is
being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real
gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.
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Fundamentalist
- 09 Sep 2005 08:56
- 301 of 1009
In short, growth is less than most expected and there are no new contract announcements
My initial views are really a confirmation of what i posted at last years full yr results. Despite the huge growth in number of transactions, this is not being translated into revenue and profit growth in the CNP area and hence is struggling to offset the decline in the CP business.
The fuel business continues to do well, but in very favourable conditions (exchange rate/petrol price) but looks as though it is reaching maturity.
Will post some more detail later
robstuff
- 09 Sep 2005 09:28
- 302 of 1009
17% is disappointing for this kind of "growth stock" with high expectation.
Fundamentalist
- 09 Sep 2005 09:41
- 303 of 1009
Turnover
Total turnover decreased by 0.7m (5%) with fuel cards increasing 0.7m (10%) and the fruad business decreasing by 1.4m (16%). The fraud side can be split into CNP increasing 0.1m (3%) and CP decreasing 1.4m (34%).
Profit
Adjusted Op profit increased 0.3m (8%) with fuel cards increasing 0.5m, fraud decreasing 0.2m and a small saving in corporate costs. At PBT level the increase was 0.5m (17%) with the improvement from Op Profit ammortisation and interest reductions.
To me, this demonstrates that the business is still fully dependent upon the fuel card business which ultimatley is delivering nearly all of the companies profits. This business has remained strong and shown a 6% increase in number of cards. That turnover has only increased 10% against a back drop of 12% higher fuel prices may even be a little lower than could have been expected. With regard to the fraud side of the business, this has actaully contracted in this set of interims with the decline in the CP business greater than the improvement in the CNP business. The decline in the CP business is going to continue into the full year and next imo so the big disappointment to me is the lack of progress made by the CNP business. Despite last years new contracts and the continually reported huge increases in transactions, revenue only increased by 3%.
The patent issue looks dead and buried to me, but is still a small shadow on the share to some investors.
All in all, a reasonable set of interims but the growth levels, especially in the CNP business are disappointing.
Fundamentalist
- 09 Sep 2005 09:43
- 304 of 1009
Rob
Its even more disappointing when the increase came from the mature cash cow side of the business and the exciting growth part of the business actually contracted in total
daves dazzlers
- 09 Sep 2005 09:47
- 305 of 1009
Looks like the squeeze is on the price now,still not in yet.
robstuff
- 09 Sep 2005 10:01
- 306 of 1009
Last yr we all thought this co. could double profits and I was looking for a much larger increase in revenues/profits. I sold too early mths ago and have been waiting for a dip to around 24p, but will not be jumping back in now even at that level.
pachandl
- 09 Sep 2005 12:17
- 307 of 1009
I have to agree with your analysis Fundy - I am still kicking myself for being carried away on a wave of euphoria when the sp hit 37p and I did not sell. I'll have a look at the full report as soon as possible - not certain what period is covered (until end of June, or July, or when?). I will also see how cnp business growth compares with Cybersource - I was convinced that we would match Cybers but, unlessmemory is playing tricks on me, this has not happened. Why?
Fundamentalist
- 09 Sep 2005 12:31
- 308 of 1009
Pach
It appears that despite the new contracts RTD are not growing the traditional fixed line business (but are growing the mobile side). Your memory is not playing tricks, Cybersource are converting increased transactions into increased turnover/profit, RTD dont appear to. It is difficult to get a better handle on it without knowing exact transaction levels and also contract pricing details (what is up front payment, what is being paid per transaction etc).
report is 6 months to end of June, no comment as to July/August progress
pachandl
- 09 Sep 2005 12:40
- 309 of 1009
Fundy - Thanks for your response. Oh well, at least the Aussie petrol card business did not include the recent, extra spike on petrol prices. It may well be that RTD will have to use all the money they make on that side in order to expand the other side of the business through the funding of appropriate acquisitions.
Douggie
- 12 Sep 2005 10:04
- 310 of 1009
Mourning All....( or the very few who post here anymore).... :-[
Fundamentalist
- 12 Sep 2005 10:10
- 311 of 1009
morning douggie
skyhigh
- 12 Sep 2005 11:31
- 312 of 1009
Still holding... but RTD pants !
Fred1new
- 12 Sep 2005 17:51
- 313 of 1009
From the SoF sod it.
The wine is still good;
Flackwell Vialli
- 13 Sep 2005 08:41
- 314 of 1009
Fundy - Have just read your comment that there was no report on the July/Aug trading - This escaped me at the time, but adds further to my now negative view of this stock. My own view is that if trading were reasonable or better then the management would have played on this. As they have remained silent I think a lot can be read into this, and rightly or wrongly I'm jumping ship to bank the little profit made on this.
Still, a profits a profit.
Douggie
- 13 Sep 2005 09:35
- 315 of 1009
Hi Fred keep enjoying the wine .........nowt to look forward to here for sometime I suspect ;-/
daves dazzlers
- 13 Sep 2005 13:18
- 316 of 1009
Getting very close to 26 now who knows whats going on with this business.
daves dazzlers
- 14 Sep 2005 13:20
- 317 of 1009
Not alot in the price now first time ive seen buys under 27,still no position yet.
pachandl
- 14 Sep 2005 16:28
- 318 of 1009
Unfortunately I am in a very contorted position Dave.
skyhigh
- 14 Sep 2005 16:32
- 319 of 1009
It's pants !
daves dazzlers
- 15 Sep 2005 16:13
- 320 of 1009
Come on ,, come on just a little bit more.