cynic
- 20 Oct 2007 12:12
rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.
for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ
for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance
Strawbs
- 06 Oct 2008 15:00
- 3015 of 21973
There'll still be an economy.....
It all looks spectacular, but crashes always do, and this could be the mother of all crashes.... I suspect it'll hit bottom eventually, or at least slow the rate of decline....
In my (I really should be doing some work) opinion.
Strawbs.
dealerdear
- 06 Oct 2008 15:29
- 3016 of 21973
how about a punt on long tomorrow.
Strawbs
- 06 Oct 2008 15:34
- 3017 of 21973
After Robert Peston does his "it's all,,,,, very, very serioussss Hugh" on the telly tonight they'll probably be selling again tomorrow...... :-)
Strawbs.
halifax
- 06 Oct 2008 16:05
- 3018 of 21973
Look at volumes to determine the real extent of panic selling/marking down.
Strawbs
- 06 Oct 2008 16:16
- 3019 of 21973
Volumes look about the same as the last few weeks. I should think the shorting ban hasn't helped in that respect. These falls may be more about a lack of buyers than a mass of sellers, e.g. short covering, waiting for a bottom, or maybe not much money around to invest. Wouldn't be surprised if some of the selling is margin related too. More hedgies going to the wall perhaps....
In my opinion.
Strawbs.
dealerdear
- 06 Oct 2008 16:29
- 3020 of 21973
100% agreement Strawbs. I'm here all day and since the ban on short selling what has been very noticable is the lack of bounce after a big fall ie no short covering.
As you say it is really about a total lack of buyers entering the market (apart from me! :-( )
Falcothou
- 06 Oct 2008 16:44
- 3021 of 21973
I have hedged all positions and battened down the hatches. Glad to have got out of Lloyds last Friday,not so lucky with Rio or Dow long late last Friday doh! The problem with trading banks at the moment is that you can't hedge them due to short sell ban which in a way makes them one of the riskiest to trade, especially with no shorters buying on the way down, other than shorting an index or other sector. Mind you you could short Warren Buffett and you would make money in this market!
Falcothou
- 06 Oct 2008 17:46
- 3022 of 21973
Darling said he will do anything necessary to sort out this crisis wonder if that includes resigning
bhunt1910
- 06 Oct 2008 19:29
- 3023 of 21973
Is now the time to go long = FTSE @ 4480?
Strawbs
- 06 Oct 2008 19:47
- 3024 of 21973
;MA(50)&Layout=2Line;Default;Price;HisDate&XCycle=&XFormat=&X=63&Y=202) | Looking back at history you might think so.....I've a nasty feeling this is no normal collapse though....In my (I wouldn't be buying) opinion....Strawbs. |
ptholden
- 06 Oct 2008 20:03
- 3025 of 21973
Interesting chart Strawbs, seems to be making one of those 'M' thingies, blimey could go as low as 3000-3500 if it completes that formation!
Strawbs
- 06 Oct 2008 20:09
- 3026 of 21973
Yep. Question is. Do we bounce before we get to the bottom? Don't see the risk reward favouring the bull in this race, even if we see a small bounce along the way.
In my mmmmmmm... opinion. ;-)
Strawbs.
bhunt1910
- 06 Oct 2008 21:22
- 3027 of 21973
Well I took my chance - in at 4480 out at 4580
Strawbs
- 06 Oct 2008 21:44
- 3028 of 21973
Fortune favours the brave...... But not too brave! LOL.
Strawbs
Falcothou
- 06 Oct 2008 22:29
- 3029 of 21973
Days don't get much crazier than today some steely words from Robert Service
http://freemasonry.bcy.ca/biography/service_r_w/spell_yukon.html
Toya
- 07 Oct 2008 06:30
- 3030 of 21973
Thanks for that chart Strawbs - couldn't find one that went back more than 10 years. I had thought we might see a bit of a bounce but then decided to close my (long) ftse position before going off to the office - and thank goodness I did!
Strawbs
- 07 Oct 2008 08:21
- 3031 of 21973
No problem. If you go into charts, select the custom option and then enter a custom date range. It seems to let you go back around 15 years...
Interesting (over a decade wide) double top formation. Don't know if there's any other technical analysts out there. I'm fairly amateur at it to be honest. I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that the right peak generally collapses faster than the left peak, but I'm not a 100% sure on that.
Anyway, I've based my thoughts on that premise, so I'll be staying out of equities until we reach the 3000 ish figure. I don't see much of a recovery from there for a number of years, but I can see value in drip feeding some money into the markets for my retirement once we reach the bottom..... :-)
In my opinion
Strawbs.
HARRYCAT
- 07 Oct 2008 08:44
- 3032 of 21973
Nikkei was down overnight, so unless we are the leaders in this minor rally, I presume all you guys are looking to short the indices again?
Strawbs
- 07 Oct 2008 08:52
- 3033 of 21973
Well I still haven't bothered with a SB or CFD account, but I always go with the prevailing trend, so my instinct would be to go short at some point. I think I'd wait and see if there's any policy responses first though. Some coordinated rate cuts could easily put a large dent in any short position.
Strawbs.
2517GEORGE
- 07 Oct 2008 09:04
- 3034 of 21973
The problem as I have been hearing recently appears to be that the government (read taxpayers) money being thrown at the banks is being used to shore up their capital ratio's instead of being used as loans. So if the government want to improve things, they own 2 banks, give this money to them to loan to industry. Or am I missing something.
2517