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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

Fundamentalist - 09 Sep 2005 09:43 - 304 of 1009

Rob

Its even more disappointing when the increase came from the mature cash cow side of the business and the exciting growth part of the business actually contracted in total

daves dazzlers - 09 Sep 2005 09:47 - 305 of 1009

Looks like the squeeze is on the price now,still not in yet.

robstuff - 09 Sep 2005 10:01 - 306 of 1009

Last yr we all thought this co. could double profits and I was looking for a much larger increase in revenues/profits. I sold too early mths ago and have been waiting for a dip to around 24p, but will not be jumping back in now even at that level.

pachandl - 09 Sep 2005 12:17 - 307 of 1009

I have to agree with your analysis Fundy - I am still kicking myself for being carried away on a wave of euphoria when the sp hit 37p and I did not sell. I'll have a look at the full report as soon as possible - not certain what period is covered (until end of June, or July, or when?). I will also see how cnp business growth compares with Cybersource - I was convinced that we would match Cybers but, unlessmemory is playing tricks on me, this has not happened. Why?

Fundamentalist - 09 Sep 2005 12:31 - 308 of 1009

Pach

It appears that despite the new contracts RTD are not growing the traditional fixed line business (but are growing the mobile side). Your memory is not playing tricks, Cybersource are converting increased transactions into increased turnover/profit, RTD dont appear to. It is difficult to get a better handle on it without knowing exact transaction levels and also contract pricing details (what is up front payment, what is being paid per transaction etc).

report is 6 months to end of June, no comment as to July/August progress

pachandl - 09 Sep 2005 12:40 - 309 of 1009

Fundy - Thanks for your response. Oh well, at least the Aussie petrol card business did not include the recent, extra spike on petrol prices. It may well be that RTD will have to use all the money they make on that side in order to expand the other side of the business through the funding of appropriate acquisitions.

Douggie - 12 Sep 2005 10:04 - 310 of 1009

Mourning All....( or the very few who post here anymore).... :-[

Fundamentalist - 12 Sep 2005 10:10 - 311 of 1009

morning douggie

skyhigh - 12 Sep 2005 11:31 - 312 of 1009

Still holding... but RTD pants !

Fred1new - 12 Sep 2005 17:51 - 313 of 1009

From the SoF sod it.

The wine is still good;

Flackwell Vialli - 13 Sep 2005 08:41 - 314 of 1009

Fundy - Have just read your comment that there was no report on the July/Aug trading - This escaped me at the time, but adds further to my now negative view of this stock. My own view is that if trading were reasonable or better then the management would have played on this. As they have remained silent I think a lot can be read into this, and rightly or wrongly I'm jumping ship to bank the little profit made on this.

Still, a profits a profit.

Douggie - 13 Sep 2005 09:35 - 315 of 1009

Hi Fred keep enjoying the wine .........nowt to look forward to here for sometime I suspect ;-/

daves dazzlers - 13 Sep 2005 13:18 - 316 of 1009

Getting very close to 26 now who knows whats going on with this business.

daves dazzlers - 14 Sep 2005 13:20 - 317 of 1009

Not alot in the price now first time ive seen buys under 27,still no position yet.

pachandl - 14 Sep 2005 16:28 - 318 of 1009

Unfortunately I am in a very contorted position Dave.

skyhigh - 14 Sep 2005 16:32 - 319 of 1009

It's pants !

daves dazzlers - 15 Sep 2005 16:13 - 320 of 1009

Come on ,, come on just a little bit more.

daves dazzlers - 19 Sep 2005 16:05 - 321 of 1009

In at just under 26.

tonewood - 19 Sep 2005 16:55 - 322 of 1009

Well done DD. I've held these shares for sometime and have followed your comments with interest finally to see you have your in price. You must be a lesson to us all.

daves dazzlers - 19 Sep 2005 17:17 - 323 of 1009

I dont no about that tonewood,just got lucky..
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