Thought Id start this one going because its rather dead on this board at the moment and I suppose all my usual muckers are either at the Stella tennis event watching Dim Tim (lose again) or at Henly Regatta eating cucumber sandwiches (they wish,...NOT).

Anyway please feel free to just talk to yourself blast away and let it go on any company or subject you wish. Just wish Id thought of this one before.

cheers GF.

hi sticky .... it is you (and allegedly others) who erroneously think that i am aligned with hays ..... sorry to disillusion you, but i am and always have been a bloke who marches to his own band

my opinion of MK has been clearly signed, and i am sure it is reciprocated, but that worries me not at all

cynic and I disagree on quite a few things.

The government's policies are for the benefit of all of society. The only route to better lives for everyone is successful business. We have NO source of wealth and income that does not come from business.

Doesnt come over that way Im afraid cynic.

Im afraid everybody thinks your Hays right hand man.

Not good to be seen sucking up to a self confessed sick tax evader, very poor form.

O/T markets dropping cyners, once down through 6400 I have a hunch that it will fall below 6000.

The US market needs a decent drop apart from Obama,s problems. The US market went up far too fast.

Damm it, my local shuts down today.

Thats now the 4th one in my area within walking (sometimes crawling) distance.

Just what do we need to keep our local pubs going???????? any ideas.

Not only will I miss the local ale but Ill also miss my pub mates, the cats wont have a watering hole and Ill have to stop fantasising about gettting into the sexy blonde Kaisha behind the bars bra.

What a shame.

Is this happening all over the country or just Yorkshire????????????????

Im certainly not supping supermarket ale.

not my prob sticky, but rather yours and this nebulous "theirs"

pubs are closing everywhere and have been for years
to some extent, it is because peeps drink less and if they go to the pub, they generally want (to be able) to eat at least passably well
for the breweries, the land is far more valuable for redevelopment - for social housing of course! - than to be kept as a pub

Cynic,

You ducked the "expeditious" grounds.

I think that Osborne and Cameron based many of the economic decision on impure party political grounds, but has mistimed it, hence the "printing" of attempting to push money into the market and to those who can cash in once again.

However, his latest wheeze on mortgages will be "inflationary" and I think boomerang back on to him.

GDP still suggest he is still lying about true employment levels.

Also, his selling off of the Royal Mail below it "true value" will raise another stench around him.

He will be seen once again as doing favours to his mates in the city.

A pity his father hadn't worn one.

no fred, i think i answered that aspect .... try re-reading

Treasury will raise billions from Help to Buy

The Treasury will raise billions in the next few years from home buyers under the new Help to Buy scheme, experts have said.



By Steven Swinford, Senior Political Correspondent

11:16AM BST 07 Oct 2013



Tomorrow George Osborne, the Chancellor, will unveil details of the scheme under which will enable first time buyers to apply for 95 per cent mortgages.


The Treasury will charge lenders about £1,000 to insure loans to borrowers with the smallest deposits. The cost is likely to be passed on to home buyers.


Ray Boulger, of independent mortgage adviser John Charcoal, said that in the short term the government is likely to "cash in".


However, he said that over the full length of the scheme as more people default on their mortgages the government is less likely to make a profit.


Mr Boulger said: "In the short term the government will cash in. But that is going to be balanced up over the course of the scheme. We know that a proportion of people will default on their loans."


More: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/10360342/Treasury-will-raise-billions-from-Help-to-Buy.html

Social housing yep, the other three that have closed down are all flats now. Its a terrible situation, dont forget locals are part of our history our life our social fabric.

The worst thing is the 2 cats I have will be heart broken. They loved to walk down to the back of the house gardens over the river colne bridge and into the pub.

Both had a ash tray with newcastle brown in.

The last standing pub is up a fairly busy road and no way I can let them walk up their.

Its so upsetting and shouldnt be happening.

John Charcoal????? ...... really? .... i don't think so!

sticky - i think we have lost 4-5 pubs in the last few years and at least one other is very sickly through the brewery putting in an inept landlord

one pub became a private residence
another has become a sort of tapas bar
another is in the process of being turned into housing of some kind
another has become a sort of "harvester" place, though it doesn't look that nasty from the outside
another became a (badly over-rated!) 2* michelin restaurant a few years ago - try just strolling in and asking for a pint!

It is is just change. Pubs do we because people don't go to them anymore. Pubs are from another era. We are heading more towards the bar/cafe society of the continent. The ones that survive will hopefully be the best of them. Some of the cause is rising lan values and consequently higher rents. The business model of the average pub doesn't work anymore.

Snaps grant what a ares wipe the man is vote ukip

Snaps grant what a ares wipe the man is vote ukip

Well if pubs are closing in your area stop bemoaning the situation get together and do something about it... here's just one example http://ivyhousenunhead.com/

looks like they're doing a good job ..... personally, i doubt if i go into a pub/pub more than 3-4 times a year, though there are few pubs round here which, though now primarily restaurants, are still more than happy to serve you a pint - often a local brew like Rebellion

I'm a shareholder there so I am following their progress and yes they have made tremendous progress in a relatively short time. A whole set of advantageous conditions have to be in place before it's worth the risk, just like anything else.

LO's Marson: The 'greater fool theory' is driving the housing market


by Paul Marson on Oct 07, 2013 at 09:44


http://www.citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/los-marson-the-greater-fool-theory-is-driving-the-housing-market/a707548?ref=wealth-manager-latest-news-list

LO's Marson: The 'greater fool theory' is driving the housing market
The housing bubble of 1989 peaked at a house price to income ratio of 5.0, followed by a 13% fall in the average house price in the early 1990s. The previous bubble, in the early 1970s, precipitated the secondary banking crisis and the inception of the Banking Act.

The British know a thing or two about housing bubbles but still propagated a bubble in 2007 which peaked at 5.7 times income, with the subsequent crash once again exposing the weakness in the banking system.

Have we learned? It would appear not! The current price to income ratio is 4.6, just shy of the late 80s peak and a worrying starting point for the traditional UK housing-led economic recovery, fed this time by mis-timed government incentives in the form of “Help to Buy”.

Housing, as we have learned, is a risky and relatively illiquid asset and should, on that basis, provide a fair margin of safety, or risk premium, relative to its funding cost. The return on residential property can be thought of as the net rental yield [allowing for maintenance costs, void periods etc.] plus any growth in the rent plus any change in the capital value of the property.

Where do we stand today? Well, the 6.1% national average rental yield equates to a 5% net rental yield. Rents have grown approximately 2.5% annually over the last 10-15 years and, if we assume that the price to income ratio reverts steadily to its long run median level over the next 5 years we lose 3.8% annually in capital value.

Adding the three components we have 5% plus 2.5% less 3.8%, giving a return of just 3.7%. With the current 5 year 75% loan to value mortgage rate at 5.5%, the real cost of the mortgage after inflation becomes 2.5%. The margin of safety offered by UK housing is, therefore, only 1.3% - that is, 3.8% minus 2.5%.

Whilst not negative, as it was at the 1989 and 2007 market peaks, it is meagre compensation for risk. Moreover, prices do not have much further to rise before the market moves into negative risk premium territory – with the same implications as in previous bubbles. The situation in central London, where the price to income ratio is 6.5 versus a long-run average of 4.5, is even worse. With a 4.8% gross yield, the margin of safety on London property is already negative at minus 4.5%.

Aside from the fact that housing overvaluation effectively transfers wealth from the young to the property-owning old, when the obligation for government debt is going the other way, the housing market is being held aloft on the expectation that prices will rise indefinitely. It is an exemplary demonstration, as only the UK housing market knows, of the “greater fool theory” of asset pricing: someone will always give you more than you paid. Nothing changes…

Paul Marson is the chief investment officer of Lombard Odier.

now try answering a very simple question .....
would you rather nothing was done to help young(er) first time buyers?

a 2 or 3 letter word answer should not be beyond even you, though you have been asked twice already but the grey cells (one?) have clearly not registered

Who appointed you maximum thread leader?

Secondly, what do you call "help" for first time buyers??