cynic
- 20 Oct 2007 12:12
rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.
for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ
for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance
ptholden
- 08 Oct 2008 15:01
- 3072 of 21973
Entirely in agreement with the sentiments of your post Ted, still think we haven't reached the bottom yet; the trick will be to judge when we have and start to buy. Having said that I do think there is already good value waiting out there. I'm going to hang on for while longer though.
BigTed
- 08 Oct 2008 15:06
- 3073 of 21973
Am fairly well stressed at mo, although, also, cos waiting for exchange on my sale and my buyers solicitor has decided to be an utter bitch!
But am gearing myself up to handle one more massive sell off and promising myself some hefty top ups just when every inch of me is screaming 'sell'... it will take nerves of steel i believe, and depending just how big the chisel actually is, i may lose a few digits... lol!
dealerdear
- 08 Oct 2008 16:25
- 3074 of 21973
appears to be little trading on-line.
can't get any quotes for any shares atm.
not even for 200 HBOS =240+
jkd
- 08 Oct 2008 16:29
- 3075 of 21973
BT
i meant with provisions not fork handles.
good luck
regards
jkd
cynic
- 08 Oct 2008 18:27
- 3076 of 21973
tonight in NY will give a strong clue, though Dow all over the place, as was FTSE earlier ..... Dow currently +30 or thereabouts having been quite heavily off not more than an hour ago ...... keep watching.
imo, though i rarely have one(!!), the consensus will be positive (with which i concur) which should bring some stability and much needed relief ..... the initial result, assuming NY keeps its head, will be a strong showing in F/E o'night followed by a good day in London - i hope!
Strawbs
- 08 Oct 2008 22:10
- 3077 of 21973
My guess. People will keep trying to pick the bottom, but unlike any recent market crash, this one will keep on going. Why? Because the worst financial crisis since the great depression demands an equally spectacular collapse. It also wouldn't surprise me, that after promising billions and billions in bailouts, governments actually struggle to raise the money......
Charts would suggest we're near support, so a bounce may be close at hand. I wont be buying. See you again at 3000.... ;-)
In my opinion.
Strawbs.
steveo
- 08 Oct 2008 22:19
- 3078 of 21973
dow future currenty 9137, ouch Not much confidence there then. will it bounce tomorrow. Probably all over the place.
Having bought ore at the bargain of 20p yesterday only to see it lose 50% first thing, I will ted to stick with ted on this one.
Stan
- 08 Oct 2008 22:21
- 3079 of 21973
Strawbs,
Wouldn't disagree with much of that.
If people are in cash, it's worth staying there until the dust settles IMHO.
maddoctor
- 09 Oct 2008 08:52
- 3080 of 21973
when people are at their most pessimistic like Strawbs , the bounce will come and they won,t recognise it.
Strawbs
- 09 Oct 2008 09:02
- 3081 of 21973
Or they'll buy and regret it... ;-)
Actually I'm confident prices will go lower. Maybe not today, or this week, but certainly at some point. I'm happy to wait for things to settle down before I bother investing again. The best deals in the shop windows are often yesterdays bargains..... If I could monitor all day then maybe I'd go for a quick buy and sell.... but then I bet everyone else is doing that too... ;-)
Strawbs.
maddoctor
- 09 Oct 2008 09:07
- 3082 of 21973
on what basis will prices go lower?
Strawbs
- 09 Oct 2008 09:34
- 3083 of 21973
Simplisticly. Governments have used the interest rate trick too many times to stoke economic expansion. Excessive borrowing has to be paid back eventually, you simply can't keep borrowing your way out of recessions. Sooner or later the worlds creditors will be in as much trouble as it's debtors, and maybe already. Asset prices have risen massively on the back of debt, even if cheap money returns though (unlikely in the short to medium term), the system will only tread water. To see prices return to previous highs, new money will need to enter the system again. Money that currently doesn't exist. I see no reason to invest in a market that may simply tread water, or more likely continue downwards as the charts would suggest.
In my opinion.
Strawbs.
maddoctor
- 09 Oct 2008 09:39
- 3084 of 21973
all the above I agree with , however , you and I have been in the market long enough to know such rational thought has little to do with stock prices!!!!
required field
- 09 Oct 2008 09:42
- 3085 of 21973
I wonder which is the next bank to go bust ?....there has got to be another one that's in trouble somewhere out there !.
Stan
- 09 Oct 2008 09:52
- 3086 of 21973
MD, the Banks still won't lend to each other..now what does that say about the state of things?
Strawbs
- 09 Oct 2008 09:55
- 3087 of 21973
Indeed MD. I've no doubt we both have our own succesful ways of investing too, which means we'll both be proved right and wrong in equal measure. As long as we're both proved right for our style of investing though, it really doesn't matter. I'm happy to give up the possibility of short term gains now, for the prospect of a more stable base to invest from later. :-)
As for rational markets. I think plenty of people have been picking the bottom, and in fact waiting for it to arrive. Not the sort of capitulation or washout point that a normal market crash creates. Which to my mind, is another sign it's not necessarily over yet.
In my opinion anyway.... :-)
Strawbs.
maddoctor
- 09 Oct 2008 10:13
- 3088 of 21973
Strawbs, I for one do not believe a washout is going to happen - cos it did last time does not mean it will happen again. I do not wish to go to lengths here to explain my position because it has taken a lot of learning to get here. However , I asked on what basis you thought another fall was on the cards in case I had missed something. All I will say is the Elliot wave pattern on the Dow is crystal clear and anybody serious about the markets should look and learn. Whether the forecast will come to pass I do not know but it gives a solid chart basis on which to make decisions at this time , rather than rational thought!
2517GEORGE
- 09 Oct 2008 10:30
- 3089 of 21973
Over the last week or so I have started to pick up what I believe to be excellent FTSE co's with a decent yield with a view to holding for 2-3 years, I shall continue to buy similar co's over the next weeks / months on bad days. I do not know where the bottom is but I feel there is a better chance sp's being higher in 2/3years time, not lower. I remember in 1991 you could pick up NEXT for 24p.
2517
HARRYCAT
- 09 Oct 2008 10:35
- 3090 of 21973
Interesting comment on the Elliot wave pattern. Some leading investment analysts refuse to use the Elliot or Gann theories, preferring the Coppock Indicator, which is a weighted average market indicator. The Coppock Indicator gives buy signals when the worst of a bear market is over. Each to his own, I suppose, but you aren't necessarily right, madd!
BigTed
- 09 Oct 2008 10:41
- 3091 of 21973
Agree with both sides of the argument here, but my style is as i have stated, to buy when every inch of you is screaming sell, when its utter doom and gloom and the end is nigh, this is normally a great time to start stake building for the future... also can see both scenarios playing out, we could be bouncing along the bottom and the recovery would have started with out your realising it. your still aiting for the big collapse and it never comes, at what stage do you realise that confidence is back and money is piling in - that said i will be very wary of buying pressure at the moment in case the fragile confidence disappears and we have another spell of panic...