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UPDATED 22/1/07

Valuation of Chaco Resources : 'Rule of Thumb' based on 550m shares and using 10% DCF on oil at $60/barrel is 1p on the sp for every 1m barrels (CHP's share) that is proved. Until oil reserves are proven the 1p/1m barrels will be discounted by the market.

Chaco Resources now has three exploration blocks in Colombia and three areas in Paraguay. The next year should see a steady news flow as it establishes the companys transformation from being an exploration company only to also becoming a significant oil production company. Set out below are some of the milestones which should produce announcements and have a positive effect on the share price. All reserves are quoted in recoverable oil assets.



Alea, Colombia :

25% interest in a field currently assessed at holding 38.1m barrels of light sweet crude oil. Drilling of the field by the operating partner, Ecopetrol, was programmed for 2006 to provide early cash flow, but a shortage of drilling rigs, then the rainy season and increased environmental requirements have caused a re-think and it is now expected that this block will be drilled in first half 2007.The proposal to drill a step out well as part of that drilling programme will also provide the opportunity to establish if the estimate of recoverable oil should be increased. (Some estimates suggest the field contains as much as 70m barrels.)

RNS : Updated w/c 30/4//07. Drilling contract should be imminent but actual drilling unlikely to take place second half 2007.



Puerto Lopez, Colombia :

54% Interest in a field containing light sweet crude oil.On 3.10.06 CHP announced that the original TEA area had been extended by the ANH to include further territory which it is expected will greatly increase the potential to find and exploit a structure which may contain as much oil as there is believed to be in Primavera, where Hardman and Co estimate that there is a potential value of 120p per CHP share.

RNS :Updated 22/1/07. Further seismic now obtained and decision not to proceed made because closures too small to be economic and drilling funds earmarked for this project now being retained for use on a more prospective block yet to be announced



Primavera west, Colombia :

55% interest. Two shallow drills in April turned out to be dry. Areas adjacent to this block contain oil (Cana Limon, also in the Mirador basin, the largest oilfield so far, 1.8b barrels) Chaco believe that the area in their block contains the thicker end of a wedge shaped oil-bearing sandstone structure; the area to the east in the neighbouring block has been estimated as containing 400m barrels and the El Miedo oilfield, 8 kms.away has 325m barrels. ANH Contract signed w/c 8/5/06 (1 week sooner than forecast). GED are drilling their neighbouring block in February 2007; two of their targets may contain oil deriving from Chaco's area so some earlier cash flow may result.

RNS : The drilling programme has now been completed but the company has yet to say whether the block will be explored further or abandonned.

New block announced in April known as Tigra in the Magdelana Basin. CHP has a 48.75% interest. Believed to be very promising but company is doing 3-d seismic over the next 18 months with drilling projected in the following 16 months. (Timescales seem to be set to allow a lot of room for delays or speeding up if progress is easier than anticipated)



Curupayty Block, Paraguay :

1.39m hectares in north, close to Bolivia. Two wells previously drilled and both showed oil.

RNS : Expect partnership with larger producer.



San Pedro Block, Paraguay :

1m hectares in south-east. Previous drilling showed oil.

RNS : Expect partnership with larger producer.



Parana Basin, Paraguay :

Canindeyu block covering 1,789,000 hectares. Bordering Brazil. Oil field on Brazilian side already drilled. Chaco also expect to find oil and, at a deeper level, considerable quantities of gas. Chaco has obtained valuable historic seismic for re-evaluation.

RNS : Presidential Decree received 2/11/06.. Petrobras has announced its intention to increase substantially its effort to exploit Paraguay's hydrocarbons and has announced a farm-in on CDS's adjacent block. Possibility that they or another major will do likewise with CHP



Corporate Activity :

CHP obtained an independent evaluation of their exploration assets by Hardman and Co., during July 2006.This is updated monthly. As Chaco Resources line up their assets ready for production they may attract a bid. There are also other actions that the mgt. could take to increase the Chaco's asset share subject to negotiation since the position of the Colombian state oil company, Ecopetrol, is believed to be under review. Other actions could be taken which would have the attraction in bringing more resources to bear on a quicker timeframe plus help streamline the management of their assets. De-merging the Colombian and Paraguayan assets at an appropriate time might hold out some advantages to shareholders at some stage.
Last Placing announced at 15.1p per share on 18/5/06.
Chairman and FD bought shares 8/06 and the Chairman recently exercised his option on further shares which would suggest that he regards the share price to be going north from here on.
Updated 22/1/07.




Here are some dates for your diary courtesy of KJKelly, who posts on ADVFN

1. Curupayty - complete reprocessing of seismic by end July 06
2. Curupayty - complete interpretation of seismic by end August 06
3. Curupayty - decide whether to proceed to drilling or proceed with a farmout campaign - end September 06
4. Platanillo - commence re-entry of Alea 1 early in 1st quarter 2007
5. Primavera - two structural targets will be selected from 10 potential targets for drilling commencing Feb. 2007.
6.Hardman updates should now happen monthly.

Bodeng, just catching up from being away a few days. Think that sometime this week Paraguay annoncement re Bohemia will be issued plus confirmation that the Primavera contract has been signed ( some seem to think that that is an important step; I think that that is merely an admin. catch-up). From now on I think that we look to be in for a steady build-up in sp.

Hi Sharesure, have a look at the link below, is this whats holding up the Paraguay announcement?

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2006/05/08/2003306742

Explosive, that link seemed to suggest that it was in Chinese so I haven't viewed it! What did it say?
There is nothing holding up Paraguay ( Bohemia block ) other than the Paraguayan gov. needs to give its decision. That is expected very shortly (possibly tomorrow or Wednesday? ) Assuming they get that block the impact on the sp should be significant. As always it is a case of being patient and letting the news come out when they are ready. I am expecting CHP's mgt. to link any Paraguayan announcement with a tie up with a major to share the exploration cost. There is also further to come out on all three Colombian blocks very soon.

Sharesure, It's got nothing to do with Chaco.

Stewart, thanks.

Hi Sharesure, hope you had a good break.

Does the Alea drilling over the summer still stand?
Some on the other bb were saying no drilling before December last week.

dibbles, as far as I can find out the intention is to turn on the tap on the previously drilled well which flowed at 533b/d to give some early cashflow (maybe $18,000/day profit) and then drill the other holes to establish for certain that the field is c.80mb in the Autumn, after the rainy season has finished. It's really up to the operator, Ecopetrel, to organize and carry this out, not Chaco, so they cannot drive it fwd at a quicker pace other than to ensure Ecopetrel fulfill their obligations within the first year. It could be that things happen more speedily at Puerta Lopez which, with a 55% stake and towards 100mb of recoverable oil, is going to provide greater revenues for CHP. They also seem very eager to get their drilling of two exploratory holes underway at Primavera at an early stage since the seismic seems to show there to be between a few hundred and several hundred mb's.
As far as newsflow is concerned, the signing of the Primavera contract (today?) and the award of Bohemia (tomorrow?) look to be the first two items to come out, although the latter, in my opinion, may be linked to the announcement of a jv partner and that might mean a slight delay.

Sharesure,

When you say a steady build up in the sp, do you think 50p by late summer is a realistic aspiration?

BD

Blackdown, I wish I knew. That was an sp target that one of the board and a leading broker are working to, with more by Xmas. It really all boils down to good newsflow. There are plenty of potential opportunities for that as the header to this thread details. I will be disappointed if those sorts of figures are not reached by that time, but even if the timing is out, I don't think that the potential is.

Sharesure
There is a lot of impatience on the other board-I am prepared to wait for all the news when it comes!

Bodeng, I guess it will be like buses; but worth it when it happens.

Sharsure,how are you,
Good to see all the big buys towards the end of todays trading,i am very encouraged by the fact that the SP has settled,despite two days of heavy seeling,this reminds me of the time it suddenly jumped from 11p ish to 17,so the next rise will take us all by suprise and its on its way.

guys,
can anyone tell me how much oil this co is sitting on?
thanks

Read the header baker12. Some good info there.

thanks,
I wanted to know because a couple of things struck me recently while I was listening to comments by Doug Jendry on a webcast. he said he was scared by the amounts of oil involved and another comment was they would be zillionaires if they knew how the markets worked. I bought some on the strength of this interview.


to satisfy myself I have worked out:

Alea Colombia

25% 70m barrels (high estimate) = 17.5m

Pierto Lopez Colombia

54% 10m barrels = 5.4m

Primavera West Colombia

55% 400m barrels = 220m

total 242.9m barrels

are we therefore talking figure in the region of 10 - 15 billion pounds worth of known oil this company is sitting on?

...... that's without

Curugy block Paraguay
San Pedro block Paraguay
both showing oil and the
Parana basin Paraguay with suspected gas and oil


I don't know what this will translate in terms of share price but I really don't think a market cap of 400m or 80p a share is too ambitious a target at this stage.

You forgot setup costs, cost of production, runing and general maintenance. Also how have you calculated 10-15 billion pounds worth of known oil into a market cap of 400m or a sp of 80p?

242.9mbb X $5 (value in the ground) / 1.84$/ / 507.47m shares = 130p per share.

That will do for starters - reduce by any fraction you like for risk there is no oil in some fields.

Baker12, re your question on how much oil,
Alea: 38m - 80m barrels; CHP's share 25%
Puerta Lopez - up to 100m barrels (according to Presentations); CHP's share 54%
Primavera - 250m - ?700m, maybe more, they just don't know how all the faults lie and what they have trapped. CHP's share 55%
That's just Colombia.
If as expected they are awarded the Bohemia concession in Paraguay that will give them 3 very promising areas where little previous drilling has been done. The seismic indicates oil is present in each of the areas but perhaps the greatest potential lies in the possible gas field in the Chaco basin which is suspected to contain a vast reserve.
The independendent Hardman Report is required to confirm these possibilities.
Capetown, welcome back.

does anyone know if the Primavera contract has been signed yet?

No official confirmation as yet.