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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

mg - 26 Jan 2005 17:28 - 3086 of 11056

mos
I'm looking for about 750 - would make for a perfect day - up and down ;)

mostrader - 26 Jan 2005 17:47 - 3087 of 11056

yep ok mg well u never know mate.. but for me 8820 is this point range been
15/30 for past 4 hours...zz

mg - 26 Jan 2005 18:04 - 3088 of 11056

That was all a bit rapid - stopped out of my 810 for -25 and my 850 sell has been triggered.

I should have just left things as they were...... but you have to be innit to winnit - or so that stupid purple Unicorn keeps telling me ;(

jeffmack - 27 Jan 2005 06:33 - 3089 of 11056

was short cable overnight at 1.8820, stop at 45. got hit by a bloody cmc spike again. I'm sure they do it to me on purpose.

any thoughts mos and good morning

jeffmack - 27 Jan 2005 07:06 - 3090 of 11056

Economic calendar for week 4 from 26 Jan. 05 to 28 Jan. 05
27 Jan. 05 00:00  Skilled Vacancy Report (Australia)  Jan     
27 Jan. 05 07:00  Nationwide House Prices (UK)  Jan    -0.2% 
27 Jan. 05 08:30  Business Confidence (Sweden)  Q4  2.0  2.0 
27 Jan. 05 09:00  Retail Sales - MoM (Sweden)  Dec  -0.4%  1.7% 
27 Jan. 05 09:00  PPI - MoM (Sweden)  Dec  -0.2%  -0.2% 
27 Jan. 05 09:00  GfK Consumer Confidence (Germany)  Jan     
27 Jan. 05 11:00  CBI Quarterly Trends Survey (UK)       
27 Jan. 05 13:30  Durable Goods Orders / Less Transportation (US)  Dec  0.6% / 1.3%  1.4% / -1.4% 
27 Jan. 05 13:30  Business Conditions Orders (Canada)  Jan  6.0  14.0 
27 Jan. 05 13:30  Initial Jobless Claims (US)  Jan 22  330K  319K 
27 Jan. 05 15:30  EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Change (US)  Jan 21    -110 
27 Jan. 05 23:30  Jobless Rate (Japan)  Dec  4.5%  4.5% 
27 Jan. 05 23:30  Job to Applicant Ratio (Japan)  Dec  0.92  0.92 
27 Jan. 05 23:30  Workers' Household Spending - MoM (Japan)  Dec    -0.9% 
27 Jan. 05 23:30  Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food - MoM SA (Japan)  Jan  -0.1%  -0.1% 
27 Jan. 05 23:30  Nationwide Consumer Prices - ex Fresh Food - MoM SA (Japan)  Dec  -0.1%  -0.3% 
27 Jan. 05 23:50  Industrial Production (Japan)  Dec P  -1.2%  1.7% 

jeffmack - 27 Jan 2005 07:08 - 3091 of 11056

40 point jump on cable, 7:00 nationwide figures?

Divetime - 27 Jan 2005 07:12 - 3092 of 11056

Morning All,Just missed that one Jeff

jeffmack - 27 Jan 2005 07:16 - 3093 of 11056

yes and me also divetime. Just sold EUR/USD 1.3088, stop at 1.3105

mg - 27 Jan 2005 07:23 - 3094 of 11056

I think we need Hilary's input here - or people who have been trading FOREX for a while and don't just rely on the charts. To be honest I "gambled" on the 09:30 figures yesterday and it came off. Not sure if I would have done the same for House Price figures - but that's the point - experience of the influence of "key" indicators requires experience/track record. I don't have that - YET.

My current "method" is simply to look at "relatively" big movements prior to 07:30 and then trade against them. That is based solely on my own observations of there being a degree of consistency that this happens. A "trade what I've seen" type of play - until the theory is proved consistently wrong - then I'll just try something different 'cos that obviously isn't a "pattern".

The result is that I'm short against the 30ish point rise. Looking for it to reverse post 07:30. If it doesn't then I've learnt something. If it does it gives me a bit more confidence to keep on doing it.

I suppose that makes me a "pattern" trader ;)

[EDIT - of course, everything comes down to interpretation - and the move down prior to the 30/40 point strike up might have been the move I should have been focusing on and that means my current position is all wrong - even based on the strategy I've been trying to follow - if you get my drift. Anyway - off day jobbing so c y'all laters]

Maggot - 27 Jan 2005 07:33 - 3095 of 11056

Morning all. Small Euro/$ short at 1.3092.

edit. Stop 3105.

davspeed - 27 Jan 2005 07:39 - 3096 of 11056

Ive noticed since trading fx that one of the biggest movers of the us dollar is the non farm pay roles figures, last year I was lucky enough (and it was luck) to be on the right side of a 250 point move in 10 minutes, I find that having bloomberg on all the time helps a lot as they usually know what figures will move the market.

no positions at moment as to busy at work.

mostrader - 27 Jan 2005 07:45 - 3097 of 11056

mng all sorry late baby had me up all night...
8820 as i kept banging on about i feel is shrt term pivot ill be short belwo it long above but i do feel cable is trending higher @ mom..

MG, i think you have answered your own question,only you can gain the experience needed..and what you are trading MG, is known as the asian breakout,charting does play a major effect with fx, as so many traders use fib,macds stoch etc that they become a self fuffilling properchy,i for one am not a chartist but have had to brush up pretty quick...there`s no point trying to piggy back another traders gut feel as you will never see what they see.
not sure what your looking for MG, you are doing fine and eventually you will develop your own gut feel,but this can only be gained via expereince..
dont know if any one else whats to add anything ..to this ?
also ill add MG, considering you are not doing this full time your doing bloody well mate,ive the luxury of sitting here all day this is my full time job, most other posters..on here are in the same boat as you..so i wundt beat yourself up to much about it...

Maggot - 27 Jan 2005 07:48 - 3098 of 11056

Euro/$ stop hit; looks like going up from 13100.

mostrader - 27 Jan 2005 07:51 - 3099 of 11056

EUR/USD

Important support was found at 1.3055. A breach below here will probably face the second support level at 1.3.
On the other side, resistance starts at 1.3145 followed by 1.32 and 1.3290. We expect a new test at first support key
and probably a new rally towards 1.32 area. Current quote is 1.3081

Recommended trades:

Short at 1.3090, t/p @1.3060, s/l @1.3105

USD/JPY

First resistance is seen at 103.75 followed by 104.65 and 105.15. Important support was found in the 102.80/90 area.
Current quote is 103.32

Bobcolby - 27 Jan 2005 08:12 - 3100 of 11056

Short cable 8855

mostrader - 27 Jan 2005 08:19 - 3101 of 11056

bo shrt @ 60 stops in, there feel 55 shrt term top

hodgins - 27 Jan 2005 08:21 - 3102 of 11056

Swissie 1790 support was? threatened. Looking to short $/CHF if it heads towards there again

mostrader - 27 Jan 2005 08:24 - 3103 of 11056



hodg see belwo
yen

Intraday Range Forecast: 103.20 / 103.50
R: 103.66/103.92/104.35
S: 102.76/102.50/102.03

EUR/USD
Intraday Range Forecast: 1.3055 / 1.3085
R: 1.3109/1.3191/1.3223
S: 1.3024/1.3000/1.2973

USD/CHF
Intraday Range Forecast: 1.1825 / 1.1855
R: 1.1850/1.1905/1.1942
S: 1.1803/1.1788/1.1748

GBP/USD
Intraday Range Forecast: 1.8800 / 1.8830
R: 1.8855/1.8900/1.8940
S: 1.8797/1.8741/1.8702

AUD/USD
Intraday Range Forecast: 0.7735 / 0.7760
R: 0.7761/0.7814/0.7845
S: 0.7721/0.7681/0.7650

EUR/JPY
Intraday Range Forecast: 134.75 / 135.00
R: 135.14/135.35/135.82
S: 134.43/134.25/133.90

EUR/GBP
Intraday Range Forecast: 0.6940 / 0.6955
R: 0.6964/0.6981/0.7012
S: 0.6925/0.6916/0.6873

EUR/CHF
Intraday Range Forecast: 1.5445 / 1.5475
R: 1.5509/1.5515/1.5548
S: 1.5436/1.5401/1.5380


Intraday Range Forecasts: Provides 20-50 pips range forecast for close monitoring of the intra-day movements.

mostrader - 27 Jan 2005 08:28 - 3104 of 11056

taken profit @ 38

mostrader - 27 Jan 2005 08:44 - 3105 of 11056

bit early but had to jump and do some other stuff..
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