ANYONE KNOW WHY THE ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND IS SHOWING A SHARE PRICE AROUND THE 6.59 MARK WHEN IT WAS 18.00 OR SO THE OTHER WEEK OR AM I GOING STRANGE?????????????

Ah Analysts.

I regularly follow analyst tables just to see which way the market wind is blowing, more than for individual companies and I have notices that of late you often see the same company being recommended by different so called experts as a Buy/Sell/Hold, (1 of them will be right).
OK I'm sure they know more than I do and are better in their projections than I but it goes to show especially in the resent market climate than sticking a pin in a chart, crystal ball or tea leaf readings are just about as scientifically accurate.
As many of you know a few years ago (I think it was in the USA) they used several monkeys to chose shares at random.

Not to be outdone by monkeys, the smart people at Standard & Poors also track an equally-weighted version of the S&P500. Heres the rub. The equally-weighted S&P500 returned 12.00% annually over the last 10 years (ending February 1, 2006) but the regular S&P500 returned only 8.99% annually. So, the monkeys equally-weighted S&P500 outperformed the regular S&P500 by a whopping 3.01 percentage points annually.

Why did the monkeys do so well? By buying equal amounts of each stock they were effectively putting more money into small value stocks than the regular index. In recent years, and over the very long term, small value stocks have tended to outperform their larger more growth-oriented brethren.

So, with tongue firmly planted in cheek, if you own regular index funds, do you really want to be beaten by a bunch of monkeys? Perhaps its time to tell your regular index funds that youve opted for monkey management instead?

Now I wonder what would happen if Monkeys ran the country.
I thought they already did, I hear many of you reply.

personally prefer to do my own charting for stock picks - its relatively easy to draw a line between peaks and troughs and to decide where the price range will be for support and resistance ( even a monkey could do it )- surprisingly enough often days after i have looked at some particular stock an anylist comes out with a recommendation and price target - pretty much where I expected it to be ... how come they paid so much money for such a basically simple calculated guese.....

I think it's down to the average person not risking their own judgment or perhaps not having a clue about what the financial package they are either investing in (shares, bonds, commodities etc) or the loan type such as mortgages, or none secured loans.
It always surprises me how mortgages, loans and bank accounts giving the worse rates and those investment packages that are continually at the bottom of performance tables still have customers.
As an example re so called financial experts, several years ago I had a IFA contact me through my employer asking if I was looking to change my mortgage provider. As I was within 2 months of a fixed rate deal finishing I thought why not, just to see what he could come up with.
He was very efficient in manor and recommended a certain mortgage provider.
After surfing the net I came up with 2 providers who offered a better deal but renewed with my present provider who when contacted offered as good a deal just to keep me with them.
On informing the IFA he stated that he could only equal my best deal which was not via one of his earlier options (now if I was a cynic I would think it was because his commission was not so high re this company).
There are plenty of none savvy persons out there.
As to myself re investments, I don't look at things I don't understand, IE commodities, hedging as just 2 examples. OK I know the basics but not enough to chance my hard earned cash.
I am thinking of investing a few quid in a Monkey though.

another anomaly which causes me brain ache is when there are vastly more shares bought than sold but the price drops?? and conversley price rises on more sells than buys..... its a funny old game!!!!!! still I manage to do well myself and enjoy it.

But the price offered is often the reason why more sells than buys and visa versa, and the opposite trend of the sp.
It is often when prices are deal lead that give a hint of whats about to happen, excess overhang or shortage although of course it could just be market shenanigans.
But like you say it's a funny old game.

RBS is a bellweather share.

nortern rock paid 2000 pound commission to brokers for each 2 year fix mortagage

Nice quiet thread.

lol

Up 25% this am.

Yes.. but for how long?

Looks like there was so much volatile trading this AM, as RBS trades look to have stayed in auction till 0815.
Cant believe the Dow finished so high just on the mention of a new financial structuring system, without any detail released yet.

sub 200p .

RNS Number : 0524E
GCM Resources PLC
23 September 2008




TR-1: notification of major interests in shares


1. Identity of the issuer or the underlying issuer of existing shares to which voting rights are attached:
GCM Resources Plc

2. Reason for the notification (please tick the appropriate box or boxes)



An acquisition or disposal of voting rights
X

An acquisition or disposal of financial instruments which may result in the acquisition of shares already issued to which voting rights are attached


An event changing the breakdown of voting rights


Other (please specify):


3. Full name of person(s) subject to the notification obligation:
Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc

4. Full name of shareholder(s) (if different from 3.):
ABN AMRO Bank N.V

5. Date of the transaction (and date on which the threshold is crossed or reached if different):
18.09.08

6. Date on which issuer notified:
19.09.08

7. Threshold(s) that is/are crossed or reached:
3%

8. Notified details:










A: Voting rights attached to shares

Class/type of shares

if possible using the ISIN CODE
Situation previous to the Triggering transaction
Resulting situation after the triggering transaction

Number of Shares
Number of Voting Rights viii
Number of shares
Number of voting rights ix
% of voting rights

Direct
Direct x
Indirect xi
Direct
Indirect




Ordinary Shares

GB00B00KV284



2,425,000



2,425,000



0



0








0.00%






B: Financial Instruments

Resulting situation after the triggering transaction xii

Type of financial instrument
Expiration date xiii
Exercise/ Conversion Period/ Date xiv
Number of voting rights that may be acquired if the instrument is exercised/ converted.
% of voting rights












Total (A+B)

Number of voting rights
% of voting rights




0



0.00%

I was thinking of buying RBS this morning, it was the only bank that hadn't gone up, it does seem very weak against the sector. But I had a nagging doubt about buying, but fortunately I remembered that Fortis which was part of the syndicate that grought ABN Ambro had just been rescued.

After checking the news releases today, I then read that the Dutch Finance Ministry are investigating Fortis, looking at risk which wasn't shown on Fortis balance sheet.

I'm not suggesting that RBS may be in the same situation, but this without doubt is what is holding the sp down. So I will sit on my hands for a while, and await a better entry time.

Thanks for that spitfire.

Didn't know about the Dutch Finanace Ministry situation. Possibly explains why RBS going south.

Good article on time online.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/markets/article4859725.ece

The Abn news is affecting the sp today.

Thanks spitfire

Sudden surge of interest after being down again earlier